Tag Archives: solar markets

Chinese Solar Market Suffers Severe Setback As Government Slashes Subsidies, Projects

China This is one of those times having a red flag waving in the wind is an unfortunate visual.

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

The South China Morning Post reports a Chinese solar market in freefall after the government decided it would no longer fund new solar farms and slashed subsidies to solar electricity users by almost 10%.

According to the paper, the government says the move is designed to wean the Chinese solar market off of government subsidies and put it on a more “sustainable path.” The Post wrote:

A joint statement put out on Friday by the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance and National Energy Administration said, “The measures are aimed at “promoting the solar energy sector’s sustainable development, enhancing its development quality and speeding up reduction of subsidies.”

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One observer of the U.S. markets wondered allowed if the U.S. market was ready for the onslaught of inexpensive panels that could flood the market as these Chinese manufacturers who are used to certain profit levels based on subsidies look to dump excess inventory into one of the world’s expanding solar markets.

“Watch the price dumping now,” the observer said, speaking on anonymity to discuss trade policy freely. “They are going to deluge modules to the U.S. market and get us addicted to low-cost modules even more.”

Roth Capital Partners put out a warning to its investors, downgrading its advice on all Chinese-related solar stocks.

“Our initial estimates suggest we are due for a potential massive 20 to 30 GW of annualized overcapacity in the coming months and quarters without a clear catalyst of rebalance,” Roth’s email said. “We expect to see a rapid deterioration in (average solar prices) through the entire supply chain – module all the way to poly silicon – while downstream players will benefit”

What is unclear at this time is the effect that President Donald J. Trump’s 30% tariffs, imposed in January, will be able to stop – or even slow – the onslaught into the U.S. market. Depending on how little the Chinese companies are willing to charge for the modules, they could in effect decide to work the 30% tariff into their prices. Though such dumping would be good in the short run for project developers in the United States, it would devastate what little module manufacturing is left here.

Forbes Article Reveals 320 GW Of Untapped Solar Potential

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

What Happened:Long-time solar industry denizen Silvio Marcacci took to Forbes to argue that low- and middle-income Americans could represent a 320 GW untapped solar market in the United States.

  • Marcacci’s conclusions are based on a new report out of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory – the first of its kind – that made the assertion.
  • Marcacci writes: “NREL’s research shows that most rooftop solar technical potential is highly concentrated in the states and urban areas with significant building stock and high levels of existing residential solar deployment: California, Maryland, Massachusetts, and New Jersey.”

    • Forbes

    SolarWakeup’s View:  First off, let me congratulate Silvio Marcacci on landing in the pages of Forbes. Silvio has always been a great champion for solar, and seeing his name (and our message) reaching some of the world’s wealthiest investors and businesspeople is a sight for sore eyes. So thank you, Silvio.

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    Silvio’s piece centers on a new report out from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) that says, in essence, solar needs to get out from the neatly tree-lined, gated and wealthy communities it has traditionally served and into the low- to middle-income markets, where the customer acquisition may be more difficult – but at 320 GW, is clearly a hugely lucrative potential market.

    The key, NREL says, is moving away from a single-family-home model of solar development and into a more collective model like community solar. Silvio points out that California has successfully implemented two programs (SASH and MASH) that could serve as models for the rest of the country (as California is wont to do, particularly within the solar space).

    He adds:

    Solar developers can play a role tapping this market. NREL reports 60% of LMI residential potential exists on renter-occupied and multi-family buildings where long-term contracts may not work for residents – in other words, not single-family homes in affluent neighborhoods.

    This means community solar or shared solar projects could be installed on large buildings like government facilities, community centers, or churches and then opened up to LMI households through community solar, virtual net metering, or other shared subscription programs.

    I’m so glad someone is pointing this out in such august pages as Forbes – it’s a message investors, and the solar industry, both need to hear.

    More:

    This Untapped Market Could Add 320 Gigawatts Of New U.S. Residential Solar Energy