Minnesota Splits Difference On Residential Community Solar Incentive

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

In the wake of a Minnesota Public Utilities Commission decision to add an incentive to attract residential customers to the state’s booming community solar program, neither side – the utility or solar advocates – were particularly happy.

On the one hand, the utility argued the incentive was too generous, shifting costs (there’s that mythical cost-shift argument raising its ugly head again) to non-community solar customers.

On the other hand, solar advocates argued the incentive wasn’t generous enough, saying it won’t be enough to encourage more residential customers to subscribe to what are called in Minnesota “solar gardens.”

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Traditionally, Minnesota has had one of the most successful community solar programs in the country. But according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune, the program is having trouble attracting residential customers because the compensation rates for credits on the customers’ bills are lower than the retail rate.

Previously, solar was net-metered at the retail rate, but under a successor Value of Solar rate, the compensation rate is lower than it had been. This has had the effect, at least according to one installer, of making community solar less attractive to residential customers.

“Without a residential [incentive] we’ll just have to sell it all to commercial,” [the installer said].

The same installer also argued the the 1.5-cent current incentive wasn’t enough (advocates had asked the PUC to institute at 2.5-cent incentive):

“My fear is that it’s not going to be enough to move the needle in driving the market toward more residential,” Ross Abbey, of solar garden developer U.S. Solar, said after the vote. “It’s disappointing.”

As usual, the utility in question was trying to divide solar from non-solar customers, using the zombie lie that solar users don’t pay their fair share of costs for grid upkeep and the like (i.e. the “cost shift,” which doesn’t happen until a state reaches 10% or higher solar penetration rate and even then only accounts for fractions of a penny per kilowatt-hour).

It’s not clear that the PUC has done the right thing, even though both sides aren’t happy with the outcome. Only time will tell.

More:

Incentive approved for residential customers who choose solar gardens for energy

Solar, Wind Are Quickly Becoming Preferred Electricity Generation Worldwide

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

A new Deloitte Global report, “Global Renewable Energy Trends,” indicates solar and wind are becoming the preferred electricity-generation sources worldwide.

There are three key reasons for the increase: price and performance parity with fossil fuels; better grid integration infrastructure and improving technology. In other words, solar and wind are now cost-competitive with fossil fuels and are delivering the same performance. As that continues (and other technologies like blockchain come into play), Deloitte expects the trends to continue.

“Demand for renewable energy sources has grown tremendously in recent years,” says Marlene Motyka, Deloitte U.S. and global renewable energy leader and principal, Deloitte Transactions and Business Analytics LLP. “Governments, communities, emerging markets, and corporations increasingly understand that renewables are sustainable and affordable, and they want them included in current and future procurement plans.”

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Most exciting, the report indicates that although wind and solar are already among the least expensive energy sources available globally, they are nowhere near reaching peak deployment. As costs continue to fall and accessibility increases, the demand for renewables is growing rapidly, driven by:

Smart renewable cities:

Migration to the world’s cities has encouraged many cities to take a “smart” approach to their infrastructure using sensor technology and data analyatics to improve the quality of life, competitiveness and sustainability for their residents. As it happens, solar and wind are at the center of many of these developments because they help answer the challenges posed by constructing “smart cities,” including depollution, decarbonization and resilience while enabling clean electric mobility, economic empowerment, and business growth.

Community energy:

Piggybacking of community solar, storage and management systems allow communities more flexibility in adding renewables. They allow on-grid cities to power themselves off te gird, and off-grid communities can keep their investments local, building economies based on the electrification of areas that had previously been electricity-free.

Emerging markets: Though the innovation in solar and wind have traditionally been considered the province of wealthier nations, that is increasingly less the case. Emerging markets are developing renewables at a pace that will soon overtake that of the developed world. As a result, emerging markets are where the innnovations are now coming from – innovations, by the way, that could eventually help developed countries, too.

Corporate involvement: As we’ve seen in the United States, corporations are also leading the renewable energy revolution, With the advent of power purchase agreements (PPAs) and aggregation (for smaller corporations), two thirds of Fortune 1000 companies have set renewable energy targets – meaning this revolution has hit the C-Suite and could be unstoppable as they race to outdo each other in their commitment to solar and wind energy.

“Wide-scale integration of renewable energy sources is no longer a question of if, but when,” Motkya said. “Countries such as China, the United States, and Germany have already reached price parity for certain renewable sources. With prices continuing to drop, developed countries and emerging markets alike have the ability to integrate renewables into their grid systems to ensure competitive advantage.”

Report: Utility Scale Solar Procurement Surged, Residential Solar Steadies in Q2 2018

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

Though the overall solar market declined in Q2 of 2018, there was good news to be had in the utility-scale and residential sectors. Those are the headlines from the Q2 U.S. Solar Market Insight Report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Woods MacKenzie Power & Renewables (WKPR) (formerly GTM Research).

As some predicted, the decision by the Chinese to halt their domestic market sent component prices into a nosedive, which allowed the utility-scale solar market to procure nearly 8.5 GW of solar in the second quarter. Lower than expected tariffs – starting at 30% – also contributed to the surge.

But even the residential solar, which had struggled in recent quarters to the tune of a 15% contraction in 2017, is showing increasing stability, according to the most recent numbers.

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“Once lower-than-expected module tariffs were announced in January 2018, developers and utilities began announcing new projects,” Wood Mackenzie Senior Analyst Colin Smith writes in the report. “As we move toward 2019, we expect to see continued procurement growth as developers look to secure projects they can bring online before the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) steps down to 10 percent in 2022.”

In the residential sector, 577 MW were installed in the second quarter of the year, which were flat compared to the previous quarter as well as year on year. According to WKPR, “declines in previous quarters were less a symptom of the tariffs but instead a result of customer acquisition challenges and the scaling back of several large installers. The report points to the leveling out of the market as a sign that customer acquisition challenges may be subsiding. Emerging residential state markets like Florida and Nevada posted large gains in installations and helped the segment rebound.”

In other words, as SEIA President and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said, the tariffs have had some effect on the solar industry, but it is too strong to stay down for long. Indications are that the second half of 2018 will remain strong, and that 2019 could be a rebound year.

Other key findings from the report include:

  • In Q2 2018, the U.S. market installed 2.3 GWdc of solar PV, a 9% year-over-year decrease and a 7% quarter-over-quarter decrease.
  • In the first half of 2018, 29% of all new electricity generating capacity brought online in the U.S. came from solar PV.
  • For a second consecutive quarter, the residential PV sector was essentially flat on both a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis – an encouraging sign of market stabilization after a year in which the market contracted 15%.
  • Non-residential PV fell 16% quarter-over-quarter and 8% year-over-year.
  • Corporate procurement of utility PV through physical PPAs, virtual PPAs, and green tariffs has grown to account for 12% of projects in development.
  • Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables forecasts flat growth in 2018 vs. 2017, with another 10.9 GWdc of new PV installations expected.
  • Total installed U.S. PV capacity is expected to more than double over the next five years. By 2023, more than 14 GWdc of PV capacity will be installed annually.

A Tale Of Two Business Models: Could European Utilities Offer Path Forward For U.S. Counterparts?

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

Two separate pieces today by Bloomberg New Energy Finance illustrate the ever-increasing gap between how utilities in Europe and the United States view distributed generation.

In Europe, research suggests that utilities have come to the realization that distributed generation like solar and wind are becoming what electricity consumers want and, if they expect to thrive into the future, are what utilities will have to provide.

In the United States, on the other hand, utilities continue to invest in centralized distribution and can’t figure out why those investments aren’t allowing them to make the money they have in the past.

Go figure.

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Albert Cheung, head of analysis for Bloomberg NEF, tackles the European side of the issue, saying utilities in those countries are looking at distributed generation as a boon, not a competitor. After all, utilities have the built-in customer bases and expertise to continue offering electricity to their customers even if it’s in a distributed form. Their trusted brand name, after all, carries a lot of weight with consumers. After writing that utilities in Europe appear to be banking on this model, he writes:

If … the value lies in having both scale and a local presence, with a dash of technical and market complexity thrown in, then it may be that our hypotheses prove valid, and that utilities will lead the way into a brave new future of decentralized energy.

Can the same be said in the United States? In fact, at the moment, I can think of at least three situations (without breaking a sweat) where utilities are actively fighting distributed generation because they view it as competition rather than an opportunity. Most utilities in the United States are more interested in investing in technology they know rather than what technology the future will support. And the rub is this: Their customers aren’t buying it any longer.

From BNEF:

Regulated power companies make money by earning a return on capital investments. The business model is simple: the more they spend, the more they earn, all else equal. But investments and profits are ultimately paid for by customers, and sales have not kept pace. Is the utility business model broken?

The simple answer to that final question is yes, and it doesn’t take looking in Europe to find that answer. Even in this country, those utilities that have embraced distributed renewable resources like solar and wind are thriving; those fighting a rear-guard action for nuclear and fossil fuels are not.

It’s time for the utility model in the United States to change and change significantly – and perhaps European utilitiescompanies that have already embraced distributed generation could show the way forward.

More:

Cheung: Decentralized Energy and Flexibility: Reasons to Believe

U.S. Utility Investment is Booming, but Sales Are Not Keeping Up