This is your SolarWakeup for October 5th, 2017
Big Solar. Especially In China. China gets blamed for cheap solar panels, especially in the 201 petition. In 2016, their market was more than 2x the US, over 30GW. Coal is drastically declining there too. IEA, which isn’t known for great data is lifting its solar outlook in response to real data.
The Truth About Peaking Power. Don’t take anyone’s word for it. Peaking power plants are losing their value because the capacity contracts and repower approvals aren’t getting done. Solar with storage is too cost effective so I ask again. What are you doing to make your solar project dispatchable with dc-coupled storage? I ask selfishly because that is my focus today in helping develop these projects.
Storage In Massachusetts. Engie is building a storage project, interesting on a few counts. We’re coming down from the 4 hour system into a 2 hour system which lowers costs and keeps the flexibility aspects there. It’s still small though, 3MW doesn’t move the needle and we need to go much bigger. See above, dispatching solar projects is the real need in the market.
ISOs Respond to Perry. PJM doesn’t like it. ISOs say that this would harm their free market pricing signals. FERC is independent of DOE so I look forward to hearing the testimony.
Your Answers On My Question. Thanks for the feedback on my question about charging for the newsletter. Dozens of you wrote that I should get sponsors instead, which I tend to agree with but solar doesn’t do digital advertising, we prefer lanyards. That is why I started SolarWakeup Live! Mini-conferences. Boston and DC in 2017, New York in January and San Diego in February. Many said you wanted to help grow this platform we all share, sponsor one or more conferences and our conversations will flourish.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 4th, 2017
The Tone Of The ITC Hearing. It was boring through the prepared testimony but hours of questions from the commissioners was telling. Commissioners were much more demanding of answers to Suniva/SolarWorld starting with their request to understand how a 201 remedy would help them survive. Crickets from the petitioners on that point.
Craziest Thing Said By Suniva/SolarWorld. The minimum price and tariffs would not affect the market because the RPS policies would require utilities to buy solar at whatever price it costs and the tax credit adjusts to higher pricing. It was also said that there was no elasticity in the utility scale market meaning that cost of install was detached from market size.
Best Point(s) By Anti 201 Witnesses. 1. There is no obvious and stated circumstance where Suniva and SolarWorld end up in a better position 4 years from now with a requested 201 remedy. (SEIA lawyer Matthew Nicely) 2. Solar industry may have grown through solar tariffs 1 and 2 but silicon wasn’t as fortunate, the US leadership was lost when China retaliated to the tariffs. 3. Don’t forget the consumers and the higher price of energy they would have to pay if the proposed remedy is recommended.
Advice To Solar Industry From SEIA President. I spoke with Abby Hopper of SEIA and asked what solar companies should be doing. Patience is the answer because there is nothing happening today, tomorrow or the next few weeks. SEIA is going to the White House today and Trump goes to China in November. Expect more deal talks to heat up over next weeks and months.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 3rd, 2017
The ITC Remedy Hearing. As I prepare for the remedy hearing that starts in a few hours, I am looking at the witness list that consists of solar professionals, lawyers and diplomats. This is a hearing to discuss the remedy that is requested by the petitioners and the answer by the trade association. SEIA rightfully pointed out that Suniva’s request for module tariffs is above the allowed 50% tariff under the 201 petition. SolarWorld is requesting an import quota on cell and modules and is not expected to support a minimum price. SEIA also proposed some options which include doing something with the tariff deposits from the first two tariff cases and an import license that could create monies for domestic manufacturing.
What Isn’t Expected To Happen. Anything off script. Most people in the room don’t expect to hear anything that they don’t plan on hearing. All sides will say what they planned for and nobody is expecting any surprises. No deal is expected to be announced but don’t be surprised if you start hearing talk about a deal being discussed. Too many what if scenarios to really get into now and there isn’t a lot of precedent when it comes to the 201 petition.
What Happens Next? Depending on how the feedback, if any, from the commissioners affects the mood in the room, expect the parties to keep talking. It doesn’t seem like there is a path where this doesn’t end up on the President’s desk so there will remain a wild card until the end. I also remain skeptical that without a corporate solution for Suniva and perhaps SolarWorld, that a deal can be had. I will be looking for sidebars and one on one conversations tomorrow at the hearing. The remedy vote will be on October 31st, same day as SolarWakeup Live! Boston and a topic that is expected to be discussed in detail.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 2nd, 2017
Yann Goes To Washington. I don’t expect new news to come out of the remedy hearing but there was too much nuance involved in the process. So I am on my way to Washington this morning and will be in the ITC hearing room tomorrow as Suniva and SolarWorld make their arguments. I want to see the body language, the tone and facial expressions in the room. I am not interested in the news, other reporters will cover that. I am trying to figure out where this is going to end up and if any of solar’s messaging is getting to the commissioners. No dinner plans for tonight so I may have to hit up my favorite Indian restaurant in DC, I must celebrate globalism after all.
SolarWakeu Live! Boston. On October 31st, we will take on Boston with SWu Live. Our first speaker that we are announcing is Daniel Hullah, Managing Director of GE Ventures. Daniel has over a decade in cleantech VC with GE, National Grid and Rockport. This is a conversation I am really interested in. When GE moved into Boston, Jeff Immelt highlighted the need for innovation and startups to shape GE, and corporate development in cleantech is quite active. Get your tickets now, 3 more great speakers to be announced soon.
So Much Going on, Read It all. New York Times covers renewable energy jobs going to coal country. The Florida PSC continues to be a retirement home for legislators, this time with a guy that has shown his roots long ago. More loan guarantee for Vogtle, it still won’t get built. DOE wants subsidies for coal and nuclear plants (totally crazy, I know). Puerto Rico still needs energy and water and food and help. If you can help visit unidosporpuertorico.com and make a donation. If you have materials that you want and can donate, please email me.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 29th, 2017
I may be attending the remedy hearing to cover it for you all and get some expert analysis post hearing. If that happens, I will let you know. Some great events coming up to see me in person. On 10/31 we are in Boston for SolarWakeup Live! On 11/7, there will be a live streaming of EnergyWakeup at MDV-SEIA’s Solar Focus Conference in DC. And 12/6 SolarWakeup Live! Will be in DC. Make sure to get your tickets for all events and contact me if you want to sponsor any of those.
Remedy Gamesmanship Begins. We’ve been expecting the remedy testimony to come out in advance of the hearing and had heard rumors that Suniva and SolarWorld would not be in full agreement about the minimum price. Suniva has adjusted its minimum price a bit and asks for Canada to not be allowed to be a free trade partner. They still want the minimum price to be $0.74 per watt and have a tariff on imported cells. SolarWorld will be asking for an import quota which Suniva wants the tariff to apply to. Remind yourself that this is coming from two companies that will never be the same, regardless of remedy imposed because their bankability is either questionable or non-existent at this point.
Putting 51st State In Action. I’ve had a lot of ‘if only’ conversations this week regarding the disaster in Puerto Rico. Bringing solar generators, multiple power input microgrids, energy storage etc. It’s all doable but who is the customer? Where should it go? In a discussion on my linkedin page, it was brought up that this is one of the largest power outages outside of wartime in a long time. Puerto Rico is literally the 51st State, which matches the SEPA program to figure out what the utility of the future looks like. Seems like an opportune time to take theory and apply to real life. I’d also think that since NextEra couldn’t buy HECO, they should think about buying PREPA.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 28th, 2017
Listen to the latest podcast and put a review on iTunes please. Get your tickets to SolarWakeup Live! Boston here.
Tax Reform Is Here.The important parts of tax reform have been highlighted and the way it would affect solar are as follows. Corporate rate is proposed to drop to 20% and a repeal of the estate tax and AMT. The corporate drop would affect the supply of tax equity because less would be owed and reduce the value of the depreciation, both of which will cause a negative pressure on tax equity value if it passes as proposed (it will not). Some senators and Secretaries have proposed making the reform retroactive to 2017, which would cause larger issues and drive contractual clauses that are ignored right now. Hoping to cover ‘change in law’ provisions with future guests on the podcast soon.
SolarWorld May Have Lost A Customer. Roofing contractor PetersenDean has signed a supply agreement with San Antonio’s Mission Solar. This is noteworthy because on my many trips to California, the radio waves are plastered with ads from PD about made in America modules which used to be purchased from SW. Now it appears that Mission Solar is getting that business, I don’t know if that is related to bankability or the 201 petition but noteworthy. I do want to ask something of the solar industry. SolarWorld is screwing the industry and we should take our business elsewhere. HOWEVER, the employees are stuck in a shitty position. You can be honest with them about your feelings but at the same time, you should offer your help to them in terms of finding another opportunity if they so desire. It’s not their fault and they probably had no ability to impact this. Just saying that we shouldn’t necessarily put the two in the same basket.
The RPS, Forgotten But Not Lost. They used to seem ideological and far fetched, especially in the mid 2000’s. Today, RPS continue to drive state and utility purchasing into renewables without cost to ratepayers. We’ve spent the year debating the 100% RPS across the leading States but many red and purple States have long forgotten the RPS. I can’t think of the last RPS bill filed in Florida since Representative Kreegel killed it in 2009 because 20% RPS by 2020 with a 2% cost cap was ‘impossible’. I laugh out loud now on how wrong we were but maybe having a doctor as the head of the energy committee was the problem to start with.
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Yann
Mike DellaGala: Getting to NTP – Using Development Capital To Boost Projects To Completion
Mike DellaGala has been in solar for a long time and we've known each other about that long. I wanted to have Mike on the podcast to talk about the change in his business model. For many years, Mike was a sponsor in the market, his goal was to buy projects with as little risk as possible at the highest returns he could find. Today, he has shifted DGEP Management to get into projects as early as possible and provide the capital needed to get to NTP. With developers using their networks and capabilities to dream up a project, the large interconnection fees are sometimes hard to find and this void is his target. We talk about the 201 petition, market inefficiencies and policies that work for solar. Make sure to check out SolarWakeup Live! in Boston on 10/31 and D.C. on 12/6. Tickets available but selling fast. If you enjoyed this episode as much as I did, make sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform including iTunes, SoundCloud and Stitcher radio. Please subscribe and share with your friends how much EnergyWakeup is helping you! [soundcloud id='344208057' height='false']
Mike DellaGala has been in solar for a long time and we’ve known each other about that long. I wanted to have Mike on the podcast to talk about the change in his business model. For many years, Mike was a sponsor in the market, his goal was to buy projects with as little risk as possible at the highest returns he could find. Today, he has shifted DGEP Management to get into projects as early as possible and provide the capital needed to get to NTP. With developers using their networks and capabilities to dream up a project, the … Read More
This is your SolarWakeup for September 27th, 2017
Inside Development Capital, A Podcast. Risk is the biggest problem for developers. Risk costs money and slows things down when it comes to building a project. That’s why developers tend to take a project beyond maximum value, like an option declining in value after a peak. The solar industry has a lot of different sources of capital available today, much more than years ago, and we will be going through some of them over the next few months on the podcast. Listen to this episode as we talk about a different type of development capital.
More Georgia Solar. Another 1,200MW of solar in Georgia. Recently we’ve seen solar get done in Mississippi and Oklahoma as well. Sitting in Florida, I wonder when the time of solar in our State will happen.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 26th, 2017
All About The Remedy. We know what Suniva wants, a minimum price which is both ludicrous and un-American at the same time. We don’t know what SolarWorld and Stion want, neither of which have responded to comment but long time SolarWorld employees are stating online that they seem to support the Suniva request. Employees are actively commenting on SolarWorld’s official LinkedIn page which could be a good place for you to leave your thoughts as well. I don’t expect SolarWorld to support the minimum price and definitely not a tariff on imported cells. The hearing for the remedy is coming up with the recommendation going to the President on November 13th. About the press release from SolarWorld today; that’s stupid corporate bullshit. Just manufactured bullshit to bring into the hearing and try to buy some goodwill. If they promise to hire 200, then make sure you care about the thousands that will lose their jobs.
Rebuilding Puerto Rico. All the facts coming out of Puerto Rico are disheartening. Solar farms are destroyed, infrastructure non-existent and as PREPA CEO puts it, ‘devastated’. As PR looks to rebuild, the question has to be asked. After giving communities energy as fast as possible, what should the grid look like? What technologies, infrastructure and resilience would give PR a 21st century grid?
SolarWakeup Live! Almost Sold Out. You are all awesome. The support from the readers will sell out the first event way faster than I expected. I am working with the host to look at some additional capacity but ticket sales will likely cap out at 75 seats and we are almost there. If you want to be at the inaugural event, buy your tickets now, they are just $50 and give you a great excuse to get a few days of MA business done. As a special addition, the ITC will be voting on the remedy on the same day and I’ll give a special breakdown of the remedy proposal live with Q&A.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 25th, 2017
Get Your Tickets, Selling Out Fast. The first event won’t be big, we’ve got space for about 50 people. I’ve released tickets that you can buy here but get them before they sell out. The tickets for DC will go on sale soon as well. I’ve got some great interviews getting set up and will announce the 2018 schedule next month with the target of 10 Cities across America.
Injury Yes. Remedy Next. SEIA, SolarWorld, Trump. On Friday, the expected happened. The trade commission found injury to have been caused under the 201 petition. This opens the next steps and makes solar political. On October 31st, the ITC will have a hearing to discuss appropriate remedies. Suniva has asked for 40 cent minimum price for cells and 78 cents for modules. SolarWorld has not responded to requests for comment on their requested remedy. I’ve also asked Stion which remedy they would like to see but have not received responses to my emails. SEIA will keep fighting and the many manufacturers in solar vow to keep leading alongside. On Friday, SolarWorld came out with a statement that showed their true colors. They want to negotiate a deal. Getting the injury finding was the leverage they wanted to figure out a way to screw over the solar industry but they’ve forgotten that Trump gets the last word. By mid-January, Trump will dictate what the remedy is regardless of the ITC’s proposal or any deal. I’d like to hear from my readers if they are buying SolarWorld modules or have plans to. Please reach out if you have a PO in or will be placing a PO in the next few quarters.
Puerto Rico In Despair. We take it for granted. Electricity drives our society and whenever we want it, we have it. Puerto Rico, after getting crushed by a Hurricane Maria, doesn’t have it and who knows when they’ll get it again. The infrastructure is non-existent and I’ve seen images of solar farms that look like a bomb was dropped on it. A society without energy can’t pump gas, can’t work, can’t transmit cellular communications to coordinate aid. Puerto Rico needs hundreds of solar microgrids in a box to get through this. I don’t know how to get them or distribute them but it needs to get done. I’ve got ships leaving South Florida for Puerto Rico on a daily basis but our industry needs to get this done, somehow, someway.
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Yann