This is your SolarWakeup for September 29th, 2017

I may be attending the remedy hearing to cover it for you all and get some expert analysis post hearing. If that happens, I will let you know. Some great events coming up to see me in person. On 10/31 we are in Boston for SolarWakeup Live! On 11/7, there will be a live streaming of EnergyWakeup at MDV-SEIA’s Solar Focus Conference in DC. And 12/6 SolarWakeup Live! Will be in DC. Make sure to get your tickets for all events and contact me if you want to sponsor any of those.
Remedy Gamesmanship Begins. We’ve been expecting the remedy testimony to come out in advance of the hearing and had heard rumors that Suniva and SolarWorld would not be in full agreement about the minimum price. Suniva has adjusted its minimum price a bit and asks for Canada to not be allowed to be a free trade partner. They still want the minimum price to be $0.74 per watt and have a tariff on imported cells. SolarWorld will be asking for an import quota which Suniva wants the tariff to apply to. Remind yourself that this is coming from two companies that will never be the same, regardless of remedy imposed because their bankability is either questionable or non-existent at this point.
Putting 51^st State In Action. I’ve had a lot of ‘if only’ conversations this week regarding the disaster in Puerto Rico. Bringing solar generators, multiple power input microgrids, energy storage etc. It’s all doable but who is the customer? Where should it go? In a discussion on my linkedin page, it was brought up that this is one of the largest power outages outside of wartime in a long time. Puerto Rico is literally the 51^st State, which matches the SEPA program to figure out what the utility of the future looks like. Seems like an opportune time to take theory and apply to real life. I’d also think that since NextEra couldn’t buy HECO, they should think about buying PREPA.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for September 28th, 2017

Listen to the latest podcast and put a review on iTunes please. Get your tickets to SolarWakeup Live! Boston here.
Tax Reform Is Here.The important parts of tax reform have been highlighted and the way it would affect solar are as follows. Corporate rate is proposed to drop to 20% and a repeal of the estate tax and AMT. The corporate drop would affect the supply of tax equity because less would be owed and reduce the value of the depreciation, both of which will cause a negative pressure on tax equity value if it passes as proposed (it will not). Some senators and Secretaries have proposed making the reform retroactive to 2017, which would cause larger issues and drive contractual clauses that are ignored right now. Hoping to cover ‘change in law’ provisions with future guests on the podcast soon.
SolarWorld May Have Lost A Customer. Roofing contractor PetersenDean has signed a supply agreement with San Antonio’s Mission Solar. This is noteworthy because on my many trips to California, the radio waves are plastered with ads from PD about made in America modules which used to be purchased from SW. Now it appears that Mission Solar is getting that business, I don’t know if that is related to bankability or the 201 petition but noteworthy. I do want to ask something of the solar industry. SolarWorld is screwing the industry and we should take our business elsewhere. HOWEVER, the employees are stuck in a shitty position. You can be honest with them about your feelings but at the same time, you should offer your help to them in terms of finding another opportunity if they so desire. It’s not their fault and they probably had no ability to impact this. Just saying that we shouldn’t necessarily put the two in the same basket.
The RPS, Forgotten But Not Lost. They used to seem ideological and far fetched, especially in the mid 2000’s. Today, RPS continue to drive state and utility purchasing into renewables without cost to ratepayers. We’ve spent the year debating the 100% RPS across the leading States but many red and purple States have long forgotten the RPS. I can’t think of the last RPS bill filed in Florida since Representative Kreegel killed it in 2009 because 20% RPS by 2020 with a 2% cost cap was ‘impossible’. I laugh out loud now on how wrong we were but maybe having a doctor as the head of the energy committee was the problem to start with.

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Yann

Mike DellaGala: Getting to NTP – Using Development Capital To Boost Projects To Completion

Mike DellaGala has been in solar for a long time and we've known each other about that long. I wanted to have Mike on the podcast to talk about the change in his business model. For many years, Mike was a sponsor in the market, his goal was to buy projects with as little risk as possible at the highest returns he could find. Today, he has shifted DGEP Management to get into projects as early as possible and provide the capital needed to get to NTP. With developers using their networks and capabilities to dream up a project, the large interconnection fees are sometimes hard to find and this void is his target. We talk about the 201 petition, market inefficiencies and policies that work for solar. Make sure to check out SolarWakeup Live! in Boston on 10/31 and D.C. on 12/6. Tickets available but selling fast. If you enjoyed this episode as much as I did, make sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform including iTunes, SoundCloud and Stitcher radio. Please subscribe and share with your friends how much EnergyWakeup is helping you! [soundcloud id='344208057' height='false']

This is your SolarWakeup for September 27th, 2017

Inside Development Capital, A Podcast. Risk is the biggest problem for developers. Risk costs money and slows things down when it comes to building a project. That’s why developers tend to take a project beyond maximum value, like an option declining in value after a peak. The solar industry has a lot of different sources of capital available today, much more than years ago, and we will be going through some of them over the next few months on the podcast. Listen to this episode as we talk about a different type of development capital.
More Georgia Solar. Another 1,200MW of solar in Georgia. Recently we’ve seen solar get done in Mississippi and Oklahoma as well. Sitting in Florida, I wonder when the time of solar in our State will happen.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for September 26th, 2017

All About The Remedy. We know what Suniva wants, a minimum price which is both ludicrous and un-American at the same time. We don’t know what SolarWorld and Stion want, neither of which have responded to comment but long time SolarWorld employees are stating online that they seem to support the Suniva request. Employees are actively commenting on SolarWorld’s official LinkedIn page which could be a good place for you to leave your thoughts as well. I don’t expect SolarWorld to support the minimum price and definitely not a tariff on imported cells. The hearing for the remedy is coming up with the recommendation going to the President on November 13^th. About the press release from SolarWorld today; that’s stupid corporate bullshit. Just manufactured bullshit to bring into the hearing and try to buy some goodwill. If they promise to hire 200, then make sure you care about the thousands that will lose their jobs.
Rebuilding Puerto Rico. All the facts coming out of Puerto Rico are disheartening. Solar farms are destroyed, infrastructure non-existent and as PREPA CEO puts it, ‘devastated’. As PR looks to rebuild, the question has to be asked. After giving communities energy as fast as possible, what should the grid look like? What technologies, infrastructure and resilience would give PR a 21^st century grid?
SolarWakeup Live! Almost Sold Out. You are all awesome. The support from the readers will sell out the first event way faster than I expected. I am working with the host to look at some additional capacity but ticket sales will likely cap out at 75 seats and we are almost there. If you want to be at the inaugural event, buy your tickets now, they are just $50 and give you a great excuse to get a few days of MA business done. As a special addition, the ITC will be voting on the remedy on the same day and I’ll give a special breakdown of the remedy proposal live with Q&A.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for September 25th, 2017

Get Your Tickets, Selling Out Fast. The first event won’t be big, we’ve got space for about 50 people. I’ve released tickets that you can buy here but get them before they sell out. The tickets for DC will go on sale soon as well. I’ve got some great interviews getting set up and will announce the 2018 schedule next month with the target of 10 Cities across America.
Injury Yes. Remedy Next. SEIA, SolarWorld, Trump. On Friday, the expected happened. The trade commission found injury to have been caused under the 201 petition. This opens the next steps and makes solar political. On October 31^st, the ITC will have a hearing to discuss appropriate remedies. Suniva has asked for 40 cent minimum price for cells and 78 cents for modules. SolarWorld has not responded to requests for comment on their requested remedy. I’ve also asked Stion which remedy they would like to see but have not received responses to my emails. SEIA will keep fighting and the many manufacturers in solar vow to keep leading alongside. On Friday, SolarWorld came out with a statement that showed their true colors. They want to negotiate a deal. Getting the injury finding was the leverage they wanted to figure out a way to screw over the solar industry but they’ve forgotten that Trump gets the last word. By mid-January, Trump will dictate what the remedy is regardless of the ITC’s proposal or any deal. I’d like to hear from my readers if they are buying SolarWorld modules or have plans to. Please reach out if you have a PO in or will be placing a PO in the next few quarters.
Puerto Rico In Despair. We take it for granted. Electricity drives our society and whenever we want it, we have it. Puerto Rico, after getting crushed by a Hurricane Maria, doesn’t have it and who knows when they’ll get it again. The infrastructure is non-existent and I’ve seen images of solar farms that look like a bomb was dropped on it. A society without energy can’t pump gas, can’t work, can’t transmit cellular communications to coordinate aid. Puerto Rico needs hundreds of solar microgrids in a box to get through this. I don’t know how to get them or distribute them but it needs to get done. I’ve got ships leaving South Florida for Puerto Rico on a daily basis but our industry needs to get this done, somehow, someway.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for September 22nd, 2017

A Veteran, a Texan, and a Governor Go Into a Bar. This isn’t the start of a bad joke or one of my favorite country songs. This is the end of the pleading going into tomorrow’s 201 injury finding. There are more co-signers to a single letter than all of the proponents of this nuisance bailout. While I am hopeful that one of the yes votes sees the transparent attempt by S&S to hold solar hostage, I expect that injury will be found. I am hopeful that the next stage, where lobbying comes into play much more, that the remedy would be a lot more nuanced than the minimum price bullshit that Suniva proposed. Keep in mind that S&S want to take jobs away from veterans, from coal miners, from oil workers, from hardworking Americans that sit around the kitchen table wondering what is the best career for them and their kids. This is a bailout for bad business executives and has no tangible market impact that would do anything positive for the American economy, including at either petitioners company.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for September 21st, 2017

And Then? And Then, and then, and then. On Friday the ITC will decide if there was serious injury to the section 201 petitioners. While we all know that this is largely a ploy to increase the value of the bankrupt assets to the lien holders, the ITC looks at it as a recourse of last resort. I.e. the ITC wants to know how Suniva and SolarWorld will be able to come back to life if they get their remedy. Until now, neither company has offered any insight to how the turn around would occur. No plan on becoming less reliant on single customers by building a dealer network, partnering with financial products, returning to bankability (good luck with that) or how to retain employees that will largely be persona non grata in the solar industry as employees of either company. This should raise serious red flags to the ITC that they are being used by foreign funds to milk the American consumer of hard earned money by making solar more expensive. No and then, just the tariff please is what they appear to be saying.
What Happened To California’s 100% RPS? Early this year, in an interview with Senator Wiener of San Francisco, we talked about SB100. The bill made it almost to the finish line getting stuck in a final committee. Reason for the hold up? A large trade union that maintains a large foothold in the withering fossil sector in California. The sad part is that solar actually has a really good union relationship across the Country. Not directly unionized, solar investors and companies use union contractors for the installation of their projects. In California more so than anywhere else, fossil power plants will be replaced by renewable energy and SB100 ensures that this change happens with some regulatory certainty.
Grow Your Customers, Utilities Need EVs. To me it is the single most obvious business move since I’ve been running companies. Utilities need more customers to buy EVs, share EVs, and use EVs on demand. This takes market share from the oil companies and grows the need for power, transmission of energy and consumer’s dependence on energy providers. Florida is an amazing example of utilities that are NOWHERE with regard to EVs, even though their demand growth is flatter than our State’s topography.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for September 20th, 2017

I am often surprised just how far this platform has come and the reach it has. After my announcement about SolarWakeup Live! yesterday, so many of you reached out with kind words of encouragement. We are sending well over a million emails this year and the network is bigger than ever. I did get a few questions about the event and the reasons for it.
Why 1 on 1 Interviews? Solar conferences are broken. In this format, we are going to do a deep dive with 4 speakers on their domain expertise that has value to the local market. I will be doing the interviews from a perspective of someone that has been there and done that. I don’t like at the questions as a reporter or a theoretical exercise but does it grow the market, can it be financed and does it make the industry money. My aim is to ask the question that a solar CEO or developer wants and needs to hear the answer to.
Why Only A Half Day? Events don’t need to be multiple days to drive value and if the goal is to bring a community closer together, then a half day is sufficient. Folks from out of town can plan a trip to the markets and include an afternoon of learning and networking into a bigger trip, justifying the travel expense. Most importantly, I want to bring this to at least 10 cities next year and longer events just take too much logistical planning to make that work.
How Do I Fund This? Unlike SolarWakeup, these events will be paid for by sponsors because events are not cheap! To make the sponsorships better than anything available in the conference market, you will see sponsors for the entire month leading up to and after the event on the daily newsletter. Because of this, there will be limited sponsorships sold to cover the costs of event and hopefully bring more information in a relevant format to you.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for September 19th, 2017

SolarWakeup Live! The big news you’ve been waiting for. The first SolarWakeup Live! event will be in Boston at the end of October and the second in early December in Washington DC. Over the next few weeks, I will be able to share the speakers with you and give you more information on the location. The mini-conference will go deep into the issues affecting the local market, no panels where panelists only get a few minutes to give talking points but a 1 on 1 discussion that goes in-depth on what you want to know. There will be limited sponsors for this event, if you are interested in discussing how to help please reach out.
The Contract Versus Subsidy. The BNEF summit in London is currently underway and the annual discussion about utilities in a solar era is underway. This year, there are more and more projects that are subsidy free. We have come to the point where most solar developers would choose length of contract (with good credit) over higher PPA rates. For example, most solar investors would take a 30-year 3 cent contract versus a 10 year (then merchant) 7 cent agreement. With the advent of dc-coupled storage, intelligent solar will be more focused on pricing signals from the grid as opposed to contract lengths which has been the principal attack on PURPA contracts.
Friday’s ITC Decision. On Friday the ITC will make a decision if injury was caused to US panel manufacturers. The answer is a resounding no, injury was not caused to SolarWorld and Suniva. Both companies were rewarded with many subsidies by various Government entities and in some cases simply failed to adapt to the solar market. In other cases, customers were left without timely deliveries when supply chain software wasn’t executed on properly or new manufacturing lines didn’t optimize in time. Solar is hard, that is no secret. But riding the solar coaster means we all have to go through the ups and downs together, nobody gets to skip the line and go to the finish line because they didn’t feel up to it.

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Have a great day!
Yann