This is your SolarWakeup for October 25th, 2017

Sold Out! SolarWakeup Live! Boston is now sold out. If you were planning on buying a ticket, a waitlist is now online, first come, first served. Thank you to everyone for your support!

Grid Ops. I’m spending quite a bit of time talking with grid planners trying to understand what dispatchable solar assets, centralized and distributed, mean to a utility operation. Mainly, trying to ascertain what type of value is generated in addition to the value of energy and how to monetize the power. If you work at a utility and want to have this conversation, on a purely hypothetical basis, I want to talk to you and your colleagues. There is no doubt in my mind that all solar in the next decade will be dispatchable in some way with storage, just a matter of when and how it is executed.

$. Sunrun announced a new debt facility of $244.5million.

$$. Tesla is securitizing $340million in contracts.

$$$. Brookfield is refinancing $300million in Terraform debt.

$$$$. Hannon Armstrong is raising $164million in green bonds.

Show Me The $. That’s just what some of the news had about solar companies raising money for projects today, and it’s not everything. There is a desire and need to deploy capital into infrastructure and the scale is larger than most had expected a decade ago. Money available, projects needed. Except of course complicated distributed projects, that’s still a mess.

New EnergyWakeup Tomorrow. I had a fantastic conversation with Meghan Nutting today that will be released tomorrow during the day so make sure to subscribe to EnergyWakeup on your favorite podcast platform. Meghan has been working in solar for a decade, currently with Sunnova, and she is running for the State House in Colorado to represent downtown Denver. More on how you can get involved and help elect a solar leader coming soon.

Presented By DGEP Management. DGEP’s Co-Development Program provides equity to our development partners for early to mid-stage assets.  Our years of expertise facilitate an efficient development process and enable our partners to maximize profits upon transaction exit.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 24th, 2017

One Week Away! SolarWakeup Live! Boston is here, coming up next Tuesday the 31^st. The goal of this event is to show that solar conferences don’t need to be big or fancy to create value. Much like this newsletter, the point was do it better. I look forward to your feedback and growing the Live! Series from here. I need your help though, I have 10 more tickets to sell and I want to fill the room for the speakers. Could you send this to 2 partners, colleagues or friends in the Boston area? Live! DC is coming up in 5 weeks too!

Role Of Monopoly. My view on the utility in the energy market continues to evolve every time I see a utility get a rate increase or put solar in its ratebase. At its core, utilities provide a wires and poles to energy service providers – generators and retailers. There can’t be any competition in wires because nobody wants two sets of poles on their street. Power plants and energy trading offer a great deal of value to consumers when there is competition. Let’s evaluate.

Reimagine The Utility. Responsibility to serve means more than making sure that the lights turn on when you flip the switch. This also means making sure that utilities are doing it in the best, most efficient way possible. Markets that don’t allow competition should study how it would look if they did allow it and how to make that transition. I’ve said it before, Connecticut and Texas don’t agree on much but they agree on this.

Ideal Role. We’ve seen this already, we see utilities creating largest solar asset portfolios in the market. More importantly, utilities are becoming diversified energy companies investing in and acquiring companies. There is room for growth here, however – look at Stem’s investors as an example. When the dealflow isn’t coming in properly, because energy startups tend to be under capitalized, utility corporate development groups don’t see many deals so they all pounce on the deals that have the attractiveness of having other utilities in them. Making utilities invest through other funds as LPs is one way to solve this or making themselves more visible in the market.

Customer’s Want Change. According to SEPA, there are 171 active community solar programs across the Country – room for more for sure. While 80% of all Americans want more solar, they want it for a variety of reasons. Some want it for cleaner air and cleaner water. Some want to benefit from the natural resources. Some want to make money. That’s why having options is so important.

Presented By True Green Capital. Our current partnership, Fund III, is actively seeking investment opportunities and channel partners to deploy capital in a scalable focused on DG and small utility scale projects.  Fund III has ~$350million in equity commitments to build out a ~$1billion solar portfolio.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 23rd, 2017

Why Did I Talk To SunPower’s CEO. In the latest podcast, I spoke with Tom Werner, SunPower’s CEO. I was curious about SunPower’s role in the 201 case. If you read the filings, they lead the SEIA filing and at the same time file their own responses. SunPower has been standing not only in their corner, but all of solar’s corner. They’ve been a part of policy fights, public and private, that help amongst other things their dealers compete in a bigger market.

Stion Owes $75mm. The State of Mississippi is contemplating a lawsuit against Stion to recoup its loan. A few years ago, the State loaned Stion $75mm to build a factory. This supplemented $225mm in venture capital investments that Stion received. Stion told reporters that they were hoping a buyer would keep the factory running - don’t hold your breath because nothing is worse for a solar manufacturer than a lack of bankability.

Subsidy Irony. Stion, a largely unkown company, made its way on many radar screens when I pointed out their support of the Suniva/SolarWorld 201 petition. You have to enjoy the irony - arguing for crystalling technology to be punished so they could have an unlevel playing field by saying that other Countries were giving too much money to manufacturers. Subisidies for jobs are part of the global economy. Stion was also given tax deductions, infrastructure and workforce training that all US companies enjoy that other Countries do not.

More On Hannity. Axios has published more information about Solar Powers America, which I had kept to myself because the message was better without the background. If you like palace intrigue, the article is here. This makes a good point that SolarWakeup is the best place to get news out because I support our industry I make my living in it. If you want to stay anonymous, there is a tips link on the front page of solarwakeup.com, use it often or call me to let me know about things you are working on.

Purpose Of 501(c)4. SPA is a 501(c)4 which means it’s a non-profit but has a mission that it supports. You may also know them as Super PACs because donor(s) can stay private and nobody will ever know who they are. Have a billionaire friend that wants to flood facebook with solar supporting news? Start a 501(c)4 and have yourself a field day. Not all advocacy groups are (c)4, some incorporate as a company and end the year without profit.

Presented By EnterSolar. EnterSolar is a leading provider of solar photovoltaic solutions to the commercial marketplace that is ranked the #1 solar developer in New York State and in the top 10 nationally.  We are currently hiring at our growing company.

Join Us in Boston 10/31. Tickets for SolarWakeup Live! Boston are available here, just $75 for four in-depth interviews about net metering, SMART, venture capital and startups.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 20th, 2017

Interviewing SunPower CEO. Yesterday I interviewed Tom Werner, SunPower’s CEO, to talk about the 201 petition and how difficult it is to drive cost out of technology. I ask him about SunPower’s request to be excluded from the tariff. Tom questions how SunPower, which sells a premium product, could possible cause harm to modules that sell at a discount to SunPower. Listen to the full interview here.

Excluded But On Offensive. SunPower and First Solar are partners in 8point3 and compete head to head on utility projects. But when it comes to the 201 case, First Solar is excluded through “arcane” regulations and I asked Tom how he felt about that. I would have to ask First Solar, Tom said, about why First Solar would go on the offensive while being excluded.

Solar Powers America. The Hannity audio was actually a radio ad that has been running in South Carolina for a few weeks including on Hannity’s radio show. What isn’t on the youtube clip is the disclaimer that the ad was paid for by Solar Powers America, a 501(c)4 registered in Florida. I tracked down a few people behind the group which is focused on the message and not the messenger, which I will respect. The group is spending big money on pushing the ad out and we could see more with this strategy.

A Southern Strategy. Solar Powers America was formed by Solar industry executives across the Southeast to educate Southeastern states on the jobs and low cost electricity solar energy can deliver to small towns and rural communities.  The falling cost of solar equipment has been the key driver of both affordable electricity and manufacturing employment in factories producing the steel foundation of solar farms throughout the country. Looking at it from a political perspective, Southern states have different politics and needed a different approach. The group has been focusing on outreach grassroots advocacy by highlighting the jobs created by solar. I well done effort in my opinion.

201 Pivot. The original intent of SPA was not the 201 case, it hadn’t been filed yet. The 201 petition unfairly impacts Southern states where tariffs can kill an entire market. Just look at South Carolina which is tight as it is, but a tariff would eliminate it altogether. With a focus on manufacturing jobs already in place, the pivot happened and Solar Powers America used its platform to educate America about jobs that could be lost if offshore hedge funds have their way.

Bezos Badass. Christening a wind farm while standing on top of it? Badass.

Boston Ticket Release. We just opened some more seats for SolarWakeup Live! Boston. This isn’t your typical solar conference, just 4 hours long and no panels. I am personally interviewing Senator Boncore about net metering legislation, Michael Judge from MA DOER about SMART and private sector players Daniel Hullah and Jon Abe. Tickets will not be available at the door but you can get them here.

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Yann

SunPower CEO, Tom Werner, On Asking For 201 Exclusion and Leading The Fight Since 2003

Tom Werner joined SunPower as employee number 35 and became the CEO in 2003. Since going public in 2005, Tom has led the company through the solar industry to where it is today. With 1,100 employees in the US and operations around the world. With the 201 petition at the top of mind, I ask Tom about the exclusion SunPower is asking the ITC for and why he thinks First Solar asked for tariffs to be implemented when they were aleady exempt. It’s difficult to get public company CEOs to open up but I saw a long term vision come out from Tom as we discuss where solar goes from here and the impact it can have across the world. Make sure to rate and review the podcast! Make sure to check out SolarWakeup Live! in Boston on 10/31 and D.C. on 12/6. Tickets available but selling fast. If you enjoyed this episode as much as I did, make sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform including iTunes, SoundCloud and Stitcher radio. Please subscribe and share with your friends how much EnergyWakeup is helping you. [soundcloud id='347672229' height='false']

This is your SolarWakeup for October 19th, 2017

This Is “Reality” The Hannity audio is actually a few weeks old according to my reporting, running on the radio in South Carolina in advance of Trump’s trip to the State. I saw your coverage and comments about the Sean Hannity audio and while I understand your frustration with the Obama language and Hannity talking points, I’d like you to stop whining. Until Rachel Maddow or Chris Hayes get their sit down with Trump, Hannity has the ear of the President. In 78 seconds he talks about manufacturing jobs in America being threatened by an offshore hedge fund, I’ll take it. The rest, that’s part of the reality show we live in.

Audience Of One. The moment the ITC voted to find serious injury, the jobs in the solar industry were in one person’s hands – and that’s Trump. He will have advisors in the White House that are nationalists and free market capitalists and they’ll argue about the virtue of both. What solar needs him to hear is that people are making stuff in the US for the solar industry and tariffs will impact jobs performed by robots and not people. Any tariff would lose American jobs and drive more robots working in the dark. An audience of one, an audience that watches Hannity, follows him on Twitter and retweets him. Hannity has the audience – you and I do not.

Protectionism Is Hated. When it comes to protectionism, the republican establishment and corporate interests cant align more on their hatred for these things. That’s why you see Heritage, Cato, R Street, ALEC and others come together with the solar industry to fight back. I’m thankful because they are good at public affairs and have the budget to attack this with great influence.

No More SUNE. A shareholder vote at TERP has approved the change to Brookfield as the sponsor of the yieldco, which is now owned 51% by Brookfield. Next up with Terraform Global which would quickly turn Brookfield in one of the largest solar asset owners in the world.

FERC Comments. Given all that is going on, not much focus has been given to the DOE NOPR that asks FERC to give subsidies to coal and nuclear plants. This could create destructive impacts on the power markets. The FERC commissioners appear sympathetic to the intent but feel changes would need to occur in order to move something forward. I’d expect many interested parties to continue alignment to educate the commission on pushing this back significantly.

Solar Focus Conference. Want to hear more about power markets and retail energy? I’ll be interviewing CleanChoice CEO Tom Matzzie at MDV-SEIA’s conference on November 7^th.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 18th, 2017

Hannity Goes Solar. I wasn’t expecting to find a video with audio from Sean Hannity speaking intelligently about the solar trade case. The audio was dubbed over the video and I haven’t figured out the original airing of it yet but it’s real. Make sure to tweet it out and get it viral.
Price Inflation. GTM Research published a 201 petition analysis. The data shows that the petition has already distorted market reality and driven prices well above global average. That’s the problem with this because even if the remedy isn’t put in effect yet, impacts are already felt. Deals aren’t getting done and people are already losing their jobs. Most of all, the market isn’t looking into the future. I urge you to keep moving forward because you will regret the gap in pipeline if you pull back now.
Market Bottom Falls Out.Looking at remedies in increments of 10 cents per watt, it shows what would happen to the market (it’s not good). The utility scale market would drop 10% at 10 cents and over 50% if a full 40 cent tariff is put in place. The requirement of the 201 petition is that the benefits of the remedy outweigh the negative impacts. No responsible person could argue that a remedy would help the solar industry or the US job market in any way.
Redefine Suniva’s Ownership. Many talking points have named Suniva as a foreign owned company, which structurally is probably true. It does create the confusion because Shunfeng has come out against the 201 petition. Suniva is controlled by the court and its primary DIP lender, SQN. So when you talk about Suniva, I think controlled by an offshore hedge fund is more accurate.
Stion’s Situation. Yesterday, news about Stion ceasing business operations was reported by multiple outlets. The company, which testified in favor at the first 201 hearing, gave little comments to me at the time. They did however continue to market themselves, I received an email urging me to buy product as late as last week. Stion’s failure is one of managements doing. They spent over $200million over the past decade on a bet that silicon prices would create high commodity pricing for crystalline modules. Ask Uni-Solar, Miasole, Solyndra and other thin film how that same bet worked out.
Storage In MA SMART. One of the interviews at SolarWakeup Live! Boston will be Michael Judge, the person in charge of getting SMART drafted and implemented for the MA solar market. Part of the program is the adder for energy storage, within a matrix on % of capacity and hours of charge. I look forward to learning more about how the dispatching of solar assets will play into the market resiliency.
Presented By True Green Capital. Our current partnership, Fund III, is actively seeking investment opportunities and channel partners to deploy capital in a scalable focused on DG and small utility scale projects.  Fund III has ~$350million in equity commitments to build out a ~$1billion solar portfolio.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 17th, 2017

Tell Your Friends. Can you tell your colleagues about SolarWakeup’s daily newsletter? They can subscribe by clicking here. Thank you!

Suniva Gets Money. A judge has approved an additional $3million loan from DIP lenders. The majority of the money is going to Mayer Brown, the law firm, representing Suniva in the 201 petition with remaining dollars going to payroll and keeping the lights on. I am somewhat surprised to see that the payroll is still this high, likely representing 30-40 FTE still on the team.

For What? If you recall, SQN had between $51 and $52million in loans to Suniva before the DIP loans started. The 201 petition is meant to try and recoup as much of that as possible at the cost of the industry’s job losses. In the meantime, the only visible Suniva executive continues to get bonus payoffs comparable to singing for Ursula. SQN has no intention, in my opinion, to restart Suniva, solely focused on recouping its capital. I’ve been told that US manufacturing would be thin on labor and include more robots instead, which makes me wonder and ask people in the know what the market value of the Suniva equipment is.

China Diplomacy. I continue to be shocked that this is happening to solar. When you read the Axios article, you have to wonder why solar has to be held to the higher standard of being integrated in the US. Bankers, lawyers and developers from the US are doing business across the world in solar. SunPower stated on the record how much money they invest in R&D in the US with US labor and scientists. I bring up the iPhone again, because there is no more obvious product in our lives that relies on foreign manufacturing.

Where This Ends. Trump is scheduled to head to China in November, after the vote by the ITC on one or more remedies. While the ITC remedies will be important, I see the potential for a buffet of options to come from the commission with an array of remedies to choose from. I expect the staff to be read in to the options before the full proposal goes to the President because this is going to come up in China. The minimum price doesn’t seem likely to me and the quotas without a way to fill the gap in our market are also too damaging. The question is how high the tariff, per watt, will be. Whether through and import license or as a tariff, with a mechanism to drive some money to US manufacturers, a per watt price adder is the most likely outcome in my mind.

Podcast Plug. States are the place for solar policy drives the market. I interviewed Lucy Mason from AriSEIA here, and I look forward to speaking with MA Senator Boncore about NEM Caps and the director of MA DOER about SMART program.

Presented By EnterSolar. EnterSolar is a leading provider of solar photovoltaic solutions to the commercial marketplace that is ranked the #1 solar developer in New York State and in the top 10 nationally.  We are currently hiring at our growing company.

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Yann

Lucy Mason – Arizona SEIA’s Executive Director and Former Republican State Legislator

Yann is joined by AriSEIA’s Lucy Mason. Lucy is the executive director of Arizona’s State Chapter, a republican and former Chair of the Water and Energy Committee in the State House of Representatives in Arizona. Arizona has been the battleground for solar net metering for many years and Lucy has recently joined a settlement. We talk about how solar can speak to republicans and the mutual benefits to both sides. This is the last in the conversations with State Chapter directors. Make sure to check out SolarWakeup Live! in Boston on 10/31 and D.C. on 12/6. Tickets available but selling fast. If you enjoyed this episode as much as I did, make sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform including iTunes, SoundCloud and Stitcher radio. Please subscribe and share with your friends how much EnergyWakeup is helping you! [soundcloud id='347026597' height='false']

This is your SolarWakeup for October 16th, 2017

Speakers in Boston. Senator Boncore, sponsor of S. 1824, which attempts to increase the net metering cap and Michael Judge, Director of Renewable Energy at MA DOER, will be joining our conversation in Boston. What will it take to get NEM cap raised and SMART program implemented? Join us on 10/31 in Boston.
SolarWakeup Live! DC. Tickets are now available here. Join us on December 6^th for a great conversation. Speakers will be announced soon and sponsorships still available.
Solar In Arizona. I’ve been waiting to release this podcast, a conversation with Lucy Mason of AriSEIA. Lucy is the former Chairwoman of the Energy Committee in the Arizona State legislature and a member of the republican party. Yet she leads AriSEIA and we talk about the settlement and the politics of solar in Arizona.
Closing Coal. Luminant, Texas’s largest power generator and a subsidiary company owned by Berkshire Hathaway, is closing two coal plants in Texas. The question for solar is what less coal power means for our market. In Texas the market is made by natural gas and cheap wind and not solar but the power needs will remain. Unlike most other power sources, solar isn’t getting financed as a merchant asset because the marginal cost of production is zero and the market knows that.
Inefficient and Costly. Coal plants have been depreciated many times over and most current owners of plants have either valued their asset beyond peak value or bought them as distressed assets. The plants in Texas are 30 years old and repowering them doesn’t make financial sense. Even if Trump/Perry do all they can to prop up the power markets, long term investors know that coal will be regulated against over the next 30 years if you were to build a new asset. With China halting coal construction and development, our infrastructure investors know where this will all end.
Cost of Freedom. Rick Perry, at a congressional hearing, was asked about the cost of his new ‘resiliency’ rule (code for giving billions in subsidies for coal plants). His response was priceless, pun intended. He retorted by saying, “What’s the cost of freedom, that’s not something I would leave up to the free market.” From a policy standpoint, this is well documented as the societal benefit test which regulators have had available to them for years but utilities and ratepayer advocates fight against.
Helping Miners. Maybe he can ask a coal miner what the cost of his health and well being is too, because I’d guess that he’d rather install solar than go underground and mine for coal.

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Yann