This is your SolarWakeup for July 31st, 2018
8minute View On Solar. Frank interviews the CEO of 8minutenergy to discuss how one of the most successful developers views the solar market today. The conversation covers all of the topics that you would think about as a solar pro. It doesn’t matter what segment of solar you cover, you are worried about many of the same things.
Free Market Means Solar For Puerto Rico. I had to read the coverage several times but watching the members of Congress ask questions of the DOE Assistant Secretary on the topic of PREPA and energy in Puerto Rico. The questions are politically motivated and the answers are rooted in truth unable to be wrapped in the normal tone of partisanship.
Helping Grow Credit Unions And Community Banks. I had the pleasure of speaking with the team heading up the Clean Energy Federal Credit Union at the COSEIA conference and the mechanics of the credit union may be complicated but the benefits to the solar industry are immense. The interest alignment and the community benefit fit the vision of most credit unions and someone should find a way to make that deal flow access the local capital more efficient.
Flawed View Of Storage. I try not to be biased by the corporate donor ship to some university think tanks because the money should, in theory, be separated by those academics seeking their truth. As I read the view of the California market and the role that batteries will play, I can’t help but think (at almost every paragraph) who skewed the view of the future for the author. Storage is going to play a massive role in California and it will enable much more solar to be built. EVs and distributed generation will also do a great deal of good for the future but there is no doubt that storage is a massive opportunity for a clean energy future.
SunPower Updates On Impact Of Tariffs. After announcing Q2 earnings, SunPower held their call and some interviews to talk about their views of the solar market. Always great insight from the SunPower call as they are active in many geographies and market segments. The company continues to reduce exposure to large scale solar to focus on DG, announcing Fortune 50 portfolios that added SunPower systems. If you ever wonder where SunPower will be focusing, look at their EBITDA breakdown. Residential solar is where you want to be!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 30th, 2018
The Results Case For Politicians. Jobs, economic growth, and local investments. Those are the pillars of political talking points in an economic stump speech. That’s what solar delivers and we have to work harder inside campaigns to push for our data to get into those speeches. I’d love to hear both sides arguing who is more pro-solar, which is happening a bit in a State representative race I am watching in Florida. Try to get involved in a race and add some talking points to the candidate's speech about consumer choice, job growth and putting money into the local community.
The $10Billion Deal. Last week I asked how you would invest $10billion in renewables and none of you had any ideas. And you missed your chance to make the pitch, instead, BP is putting it into shale gas. The point I am trying to make is that someone like Sunrun, First Solar or anyone else in the rundown today, would love to do $10billion in deals but can’t get that kind of scale on a single deal. The best thing for renewables is for this deal to be a bust, resulting in the investment lost which would cause the shareholders to demand another way.
We All Need To Stand With Resi. Anti-solar demand charges must be stopped by legislatures across the Country if the regulators won’t stand up for consumers. I’ve been thinking about a parallel to the solar industry. Why don’t utilities push back on LED lights, better AC’s or gas powered dryers/stoves and water heaters? The logic is exactly the same, consumers use less electricity. On the other hand, why wouldn’t consumers get a demand credit if they buy an electric car? The residential solar market is the lifeblood to the solar industry, no matter what segment you are in, you won’t see a growing market if consumers aren’t benefitting as well.
NV Energy Choice. This is an interesting twist to the ballot question on allowing corporations to go directly to generators. The Sierra Club and NRDC came out against the ballot question and sided with NV Energy. Apparently, some sort of side deal was made.
Quarterly Headaches. I’m not a stock analyst and seldomly play the markets, but one thing is certain. Running a company like First Solar that is deep in manufacturing, supply, and development with quarterly targets. A single project slipping by a few weeks could cause massive issues for the public company. How is the company supposed to work on 30-year projects if they have to think at 3-month time horizons? Same goes true for most other solar companies that are public, quarterly targets that adjust your cost of capital can’t be the best way to run a business.
Save On Labor, A Word From Quick Mount PV. You will start to see the innovative QRail from QMPV on the ‘shelves’ at your closest distributor. Gone are the days of splicing rails together on the roof using countless metal screws. With the bonded internal splice, QRail will save you time and money when you’re on the roof. Matched with the QClick clamps, you’ll love the way your installs get done in no time. quickmountpv.com
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 27th, 2018
The Module Future. Just when module prices started to stabilize, there is another word from the Chinese that may continue to manufacturer at higher levels. The official word is that the local market needs to cut costs and get competitive, in other words, it could mean to sell the modules for a lower price. I don’t know what this means for the US market but you’ve got to stay on your toes in this market for sure.
Moving Forward State By State. What is it about Massachusetts that shows a prominent future in so many ways for solar that stops the simplest of net metering cap increases from not being able to go through? The same logic goes with Connecticut because both CT and MA have similar politics and great potential for solar. MA has already created thousands of solar jobs and one of the most robust development communities but the NEM cap has been fought for several years with limited success. I hope that this year it will be different and the MA politics go in our favor. That being said, there must be a truth to solar having trouble with legislators from both sides of the aisle that have been in office for too long.
Offshore Wind. The concept of offshore wind is intriguing to me and for solar. Th reason is capital and the value that large capital investment flows means to renewable energy fund investors. The billions it costs to generate big energy in offshore wind will mean big funds that own that infrastructure.
Painful Future For IOUs. It can’t be overstated what the liability docket regarding the California fires in PG&E area could be to the future of PG&E. The issue could result in PG&E being caused to have to pay billions in repairs and other liabilities. What it means for PG&E is they need a regulatory bailout in the form of a favorable decision. On the other hand, this may result in a different future for IOUs, what should they look like?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 26th, 2018
Bloom Goes Public. Count me in as positively surprised. Bloom Energy has gone public and left room for the shares to go up 63% during their first day. With ~300MW of capacity deployed, Bloom is largely viewed as the potential for distributed energy for corporates that make up their customer list. 16 years of operation before going public was not the plan but many people thought this day would never come, so congrats to the Bloom team.
Value Of DG (Again). This is a topic that is frightening, what happens if hackers take over a grid or power plants and cause a long term power outage. Utility execs will tell you that cybersecurity is one of their biggest worries and we continue to hear about the threat, Homeland Security officials started raising red flags a decade ago. We talk about the cost shift that IOUs claim about solar but this is a value to the grid that solar folks rarely get traction on or get credit for creating. If you want to read some of the best reasons to buy your solar neighbor a beer, make sure to read Vote Solar’s Adam Browning’s Twitter feed.
Solar In Florida. Solar in Florida is going to grow at a rapid pace. Last year alone it doubled and this year it could double again before an exponential increase next year. I understand the Florida consumer and have heard my (former) neighbors talk about how badly they want solar. Moreover, you don’t have to ask any homeowners how much energy they use because with air conditioning you’ll never offset 100% of their usage. On the other hand, solar contractors that hope to go into the State will have to learn quickly that permitting and inspections are for real in Florida. You won’t get around installing subpar products without making sure that you are installing to the hurricane codes. In summary, don’t think you can give Floridians a cheap version of solar, you will have to plan on doing it the right way the first time.
Inside Look In SC Politics. This was the David vs. Goliath story that sounded like Goliath had exclusive access to special powers. South Carolina had all of the insider trading of an IOU exerting the power they have over the State legislators. I don’t know how much longer that power can exist before the largely republican legislators can no longer stand behind a monopoly when a free market is a better solution.
State Policies In MA and NJ. Keep your eyes and ears on the ongoing policies in MA and NJ. In MA, the solar industry is looking to increase the net metering cap once again and NJ is hoping to expand the market into the low income markets. Make sure to get a script and call list from your local solar advocates.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 25th, 2018
Duke Aims At Full Monopoly. Just after taking a victory lap for no longer allowing homeowners the ability to put solar on their homes, Duke Energy in South Carolina is giving homeowners that can’t install solar on their homes the ability to join their community solar projects. In this episode of up is down, Duke hopes that solar doesn’t work for people becomes a message that gets homeowners to stop trying to put solar on their homes. Folks in South Carolina, especially solar workers, should be on the phone all day long to their local news outlets and tell the real story, your jobs are on the line. The broader question about public opinion is something that was prompted by BNEF’s Jenny Chase’s tweet. I agree that we do our work but rarely talk about climate change in our work. A
What Michigan Could Have Been. Michigan was the manufacturing leader for solar and the ecosystem of raw materials about 10 years ago. Since then, it has essentially reversed on most of the policies and now is focused on destroying net metering and replace it with something that is nowhere near net metering. Quite the opposite this new policy would result in residential and distributed solar to essentially stop. Politicians should feel a political reality for this kind of policy and those running races should use the issue to make that decision be a bad one politically.
EV Benefits Everyone In Kansas City. KCP&L is making an interesting point about electric vehicles that have a funny similarity to the solar argument. I don’t disagree with KCP&L when they say that they should be able to rate base electric vehicle charging stations because it is a good thing for everyone including the utility shareholders by growing demand. The part that I find intriguing is that solar doesn’t get the same benefit when they argue about net metering and the benefit to all, instead arguing the cost-shift which isn’t real.
Get Active And Win More. I am bringing this back up for discussion since it is relevant with this data point. Every single solar company should be doing legislative outreach at every level, including the local City and County level. In Riverside County, the utility didn’t want to increase net metering caps even when the County passed a ordinance to do so. Now a local company is helping the company put some pressure to enable the market to grow again which all started with local outreach. Job well done in this case. Are you doing any local outreach that I can highlight?
SEIA Feedback. Nice to see the outreach from many of you about the changes made in SEIA’s C-suite. The general consensus I agree with, why now and what happened. The trade cases and tariffs didn’t happen last week and it seems like an odd time to make the moves but we have to hope that the board has a strategy in mind to meet the strategic vision. As the changes at FERC enable a potential bailout for nuclear and coal plants, maybe the concept is to drive some victory for solar so that more distributed generation can be built at the same time to help the grid stability that FERC could be looking for. I look forward to seeing what’s next for Tom Kimbis and really hope that it is in solar, his voice and advocacy has been great for a long time and hope this continues.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 24th, 2018
SEIA Makes Big Changes. And they’re not good. I woke up to the news yesterday that SEIA had told longtime executive Tom Kimbis that they are moving forward without him. Tom, if you recall, was the interim president at SEIA when Rhone Resch resigned about 2 years ago. He did such a great job during his tenure that I thought he had earned the credentials to keep the job. In recent months, I was worried that Tom would move on from SEIA and had told people that I hope this wouldn’t happen. So imagine my shock (and it takes a lot) when I heard SEIA had laid him off as well as Christopher Mansour. The changes, according to Abby Hopper, are to better align resources with the strategic vision of SEIA. I’ll have more thoughts about this move soon, hoping to sleep on it a bit. For SEIA’s side of the news, make sure to read our coverage. More to come.
Get My Kids An EV Bus. A couple of points I’d like to make here. First, when I spoke to Proterra’s CEO, Ryan Propple, a few months ago, I never considered the inefficiency of buses idling all day why waiting, stopping and sitting in traffic. I also failed to think through the pollution that kids across America are subjected to while riding the Blue Bird. So it is no surprise to me that electric buses make sense everywhere in America. The second point, I am impressed by the idea that ‘friend of the pod’ Jigar Shah and his team had to do a sale-leaseback with BYD to provide electric buses to jurisdictions the entry into an ’offtake’ agreement. Only one major downfall here, I can’t name a single Chinese mode of transportation that I ride. Not my car, not my plane nor my bicycle. When it comes to moving people from point A to point B, Americans don’t ride Made in China. So I’d like to see Proterra electrify Blue Birds across America in a similar transaction. Many reasons why school buses are a great place to start.
Ballot Fights Continue. In Arizona, the ballot initiative to ask voters about expanding the RPS is being challenged. The challenge isn’t in the form of data or arguments on the issue but instead to attack the ballot initiative by claiming that 75% of the signatures are invalid. This is the stuff that bothers me about the legislative process. Argue the issue, not the process, because we all know that a higher RPS is good for the residents of Arizona but the incumbent utilities just can’t handle so much goodness. The Mr. Burns in them won’t allow it.
Take This To Another Branch. While I admit to have been cheering on the lawsuits against oil companies about their disregard for climate change, specifically their knowledge of it decades ago, an NY judge has politely asked the petitioners to take this to the legislature. Maybe it would have been nice to get to more discovery in the judicial process, the judge is right that the legislature should do its job.
Big Storage Sector. Much has been made around battery prices declining over the next few years but the parts and pieces that make energy storage a system are getting attention. The power conversion, both ac-coupled and dc-coupled, is getting manufacturers to design and build some of those system. This is a nice look inside the future of storage from the system level.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 23rd, 2018
$10 Billion Question. “If someone said, ‘Here’s $10 billion to invest in renewables,’ we wouldn’t know how to do it,” Dudley said. That’s a recent statement from the CEO of BP, Robert Dudley. As crazy as this sounds, he’s not wrong. He doesn’t have the cheapest capital and even if he did, it takes a lot of work to properly invest that kind of money into renewables. Just ask any solar developer what they would consider a good year, even if they disregard the hurdle rate of their private equity capital. Even if an oil company came to the US with an energy trading desk willing to take merchant exposure to solar projects, deploying $10 billion or even $1 billion would difficult to do year over year. That’s the scale problem in our industry that is often distributed and fragmented.
Going 100% Solar. What is it going to take to connect large corporate users with solar generation at the solar sites? That’s the question that could be the key in opening up markets like Texas, Pennsylvania or Virginia. Finding off takers is too expensive for individual developers in low energy value markets so if there is a demand created at the corporate level, solar developers will be able to focus on the work they already know.
Subsidies, Bailouts And The ITC. There is no doubt that all energy sources are still getting multiples of the incentives and non-monetary benefits compared to solar. While the big newspapers wonder how incumbent power and utility companies ready themselves for solar’s growth, I wonder how our industry should look forward the next time they want a subsidy, export change or bailout. At the State level, solar does this week (see Illinois and NJ) but what happens at the Federal level now?
Net Metering Fights. Curious to see a utility ‘pondering’ solar growth in a State that has 500% growth when it goes from 10 systems to 50. The opportunity utilities to be different is so great but the mentality of what worked 20 years ago is deeply ingrained into the utility boardroom. Now expect more fights in low solar penetration States like Arkansas, Michigan, etc and the industry needs to step up.
I’m Hiring. If you or someone you know are looking for an inside or outside sales position for a great company in Quick Mount PV, send me an email. We are doing great things including manufacturing right here in Walnut Creek in the Bay Area.
Resi Highlights Continue. As we enter the first residential solar advisory council survey, I will continue to post images of your installs. Just send your with your logo and location and yours can be highlighted as well.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 20th, 2018
Go Solar, Save Money. Now that the 5 tech companies make up 50% of the value in the S&P, you have to ask yourself what it takes for the remaining 495 companies to jump on the bandwagon. I know the idea is that those 5 companies make so much money that solar is a nice to have, but I assure you that on a portfolio basis that it is going to make them money. Retail energy companies have been an interest of mine for many years, that’s why I like to continue to highlight CleanChoice Energy. They come up all the time in my work and our customers overlap because they want solar on their house if they can and use renewable energy for everything else. Moreover, corporates want to have solar but it can’t be complicated which is a specialty of the solar industry. I’m interested to see how CleanChoice continues to innovate and how their competitors follow suit. Thus far the copycats have been scarce.
Use Credit To Drive Scale. It was just over a year ago that I had the opportunity to sit with the amazing solar ambassador, Bill Walton, at the PAC 12 Sustainability Summit. Together we spoke about the meaning and opportunity solar presented to the universities. My message was, as it is today, that entities with large usage and good credit can work backwards. Identify the sites (or even think offsite) and outline the energy price that works for the entity, then go big. It is hard to find an entity that has its data together, anywhere in America, that couldn’t save money with solar if they contracted for a large enough portfolio. As Vote Solar’s Thad Culley wisely said yesterday on Twitter (I’m paraphrasing), solar already makes financial sense, this is a question of morality!
Great Logic, Wrong Implementation. Utilities helping customers buy electric cars is the right idea, helps the ecosystem and increases demand, but it is the wrong policy and use of funds for utilities. Consumers already want electric cars but their fear is not knowing where to charge the cars. This isn’t range anxiety, this is fear of the unknown and fear of the logistics required. How do I add a charger to my house? Who installs it? What do I install and where do I buy it? Where else can I charge? Those are the questions that go into the mind of someone that wants an EV but can’t get the answers. Utilities should have a hotline to answer that and if consumers want an EV, utilities should provide and install the charger in their home while at the same time drastically increasing the number of charging stations. Remove the fear and consumers will buy their own EVs.
Fix The AD/CVD. The impact on the silicon manufacturers is one of the worst parts of the overall solar trade war. These were amazing infrastructure investments made by companies in parts of the Country where solar still struggles to get off the ground. Instead of net metering being attacked in Michigan, silicon could be made there and sent around the world, the same is true for Tennessee. Removing the AD/CVD and replacing it with a domestic aid package funded by import fees is exactly the way we need to go. US made silicon would then travel the world once again.
Showing Off Resi Solar. Are you installing awesome systems across America? Let’s show off some pictures on this platform. Send me a picture with your logo and location (city and state) on the image and I’ll post it on the newsletter. Every homeowner is a solar advocate and let’s help them show off their investment in the future!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 19th, 2018
Thank You! You are all too kind and I promise I will respond to everyone. Day 1 in the books and I can feel that (solar) energy already. Lots of coffee plans in the future and of course you are all welcome to visit me in Walnut Creek, especially given the co-located Calicraft Brewery at the office.
Build More Solar. Some good questions today for you to ponder. What would be a better way to get industry, solar in our case, to grow domestically, especially in manufacturing, without imposing the tariffs that try to do one size fits all. One way would be for the Government to do more purchasing and understand where the products come from. This would also save the Government money aside from creating volume for the domestic manufacturers, lawyers, and developers that house the jobs in the industry. Question for the crowd, how much solar would it take to offset the Government’s usage?
Good Question. If Congress is looking into the question of what energy storage policy should look like, then I ask myself that same question. Storage is a bit more complicated, for behind the meter for example, who should have the ability to dispatch the batteries. If a third party, what is the compensation and what are the parameters for operating the system? For central storage, is there an RPS that can take advantage of federal policy? Should the storage industry push for an ITC as well, adding ‘and energy storage’ to the solar tax credit or create its own PTC version.
US Assembly. The auto industry could be an interesting partner for the solar industry. They have campuses around the Country, mainly in the Southeast, assembling cars with parts that come from across the world. Shipping is an enormous cost in supply chain and shipping parts often gives an advantage to suppliers that are more local. Look at the Ontario parts manufacturing sector that services Detroit as an example. With VW announcing EV assembly in Tennessee, do the motor manufacturers start retraining workforce to build or assembly battery packs? The important takeaway is that the final assembly and ecosystem is a big part of the process. Tariffs hurt all of the supply chain and cause less of the final product to be made which results in job losses in the places you least hope to impact.
APS Continues, Learns Limited Lessons. This is incredibly similar to the anti-solar campaign in Florida. APS is spending, $11million thus far, to stop the RPS increase ballot initiative that Tom Steyer is backing. Honestly, it eludes me that the utility companies don’t take advantage of these circumstances. Instead of blocking the RPS, push for giant rate base initiatives, billions in EV infrastructure, colocating storage at the edge, substation and neighborhood levels amongst a few ideas. I get that being the APS CEO is tough when you only operate on 3-month increments but maybe there is a better way to run APS and Pinnacle West should let someone else try.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 18th, 2018
SolarWakeup Is Now Pacific Time. Yesterday I took the one way flight to SF to be here full time. I appreciate the many notes of welcome and look forward to being within the hub of the solar industry. I’ll start most mornings right here in Walnut Creek at the Quick Mount manufacturing facility to serve the residential solar market. These are exciting times and I’m glad to play my part in this role. I look forward to working with many readers and hopefully do some business together along the way.
Political Reality Of Corporate America. Much has been written and said about Elon Musk’s political donations. Most of the comments I’ve received come from outside the solar industry but even within the industry, people are whispering. Yes, Elon gives to the republican party including PACs. The numbers released are in the 10’s of thousands, hardly a dent for a billionaire that has two companies, both of which require legislative action and funding. Just with SpaceX you can imagine the tens of millions that the Government pays to shuttle satellites on top of the access to locations like Cape Canaveral. This is a long way to say that donating to politicians is part of the game and one that even Elon has no choice in participating in. The solar industry isn’t immune, from hiring former republican Senators to lobby or handing out solar champion awards to GOP congressmen.
Blockchain Docket In Arizona. Transactive energy, seems like a fancy way to say that net metering or its equivalent can be handled by a blockchain protocol similar to our discussion with LO3 Energy during SolarWakeup Live! New York. I’m interested to see how the providers engage this discussion and if a pilot program is implemented.
Undermining Net Metering. There is going to be an urgency to change net metering programs across the Country. Infrastructure investments by utilities have a way of stacking on top of each other in a way that the value of solar and solar plus storage increased over time. More solar means less infrastructure spending needed which results in bigger and bigger savings to all energy consumers. The cost shift argument is a talking point, I haven’t heard of utilities trying to ban LED lightbulbs or more efficient refrigerators. Net metering is simple and it gives consumers comfort to make investments, the simplicity is what opponents want to disrupt.
Presented by ENGIE. ENGIE (formerly SoCore Energy) is a market leader in commercial, industrial, and distributed solar and storage portfolio development with installations across some 25 states. ENGIE offers commercial and industrial companies, electric cooperatives, and communities solar and storage solutions that provide energy cost savings, increased resiliency and carbon reduction opportunities.
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Yann