This is your SolarWakeup for October 8th, 2019
Happy Birthday! 7 years I ago I came home and told my wife that someone should write a solar newsletter that covers the industry, not just press releases. She looked at me and said, “You should do it.” Those words still haunt her daily when I pull out the laptop every single night. Well, today is her birthday! (Don’t worry, she doesn’t read SolarWakeup)
600,000 New Solar Leads. 25 counties in Northern California are at risk to have their power shut off due to a potentially widespread wind event. This means 600,000 ratepayers are losing power, potentially for days. Guess what they’ll think about the moment that power goes out and the day after and the day after. I’ve lost power to my house for two weeks after a hurricane and I assure you that it causes permanent trauma. Couple that with the highest premium for home values in the US, this should shape up to be the solar equivalent of baby births after a major blackout.
The ITC Fight Page. Yesterday it was a well-sourced rumour, today it is a reality. SEIA has set up a fight page with three ways for you to get involved. First, you can join as a member. There are lower price levels for you to do so and get the SEIA membership benefits plus help fund the ITC. You can also join the ITC council. This is the $25k commitment to securing a future of the solar industry with a full 30% ITC. It may be rich for your company but how much profit will you lose if the ITC drops 4%? If you do over $1mm in deals, the ITC drop is worth $40k to your customers.
Three Lefts On Rick Perry. Back to the start for the Rick Perry saga, but don’t hold your breath. I would be surprised if he makes it to 2020.
Going Renewable At Home. Plenty of retail energy providers now offer a 100% renewable offering. CleanChoice Energy does it exclusively and gets involved in community solar projects as well. Axios’ Amy Harder writes about her personal experience joining Arcadia Power’s customer base while writing about renewable energy procurement.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 7th, 2019
Home Value With Solar. The data on home values with solar is getting better simply due to the volume of transactions. Some perspective on the numbers though. The percentages are somewhat useless given that the home values are not the same across state lines. The total value is what you are looking for and it is directly correlated to the cost of electricity. San Francisco leads with $41k but the rest of the country is somewhere in the $10k range. That number is key because after the ITC and energy savings you enjoy while being in the home, you have the value left over. Solar buyers often run an ROI analysis, i.e. 7 year payback, but what they should really do is look at the ROI to premium value. Is anyone in solar selling on this?
SEIA Fights ITC. Insiders are telling me that SEIA is getting ready to deploy money into the ITC extension fight. I can’t be prouder of SEIA for allocating the limited resources in this way when they will likely be the lone trade group to do so with the support of many of you. Neither SEPA nor SETS have commented on the call to participate financially in the policy that pays their bills.
Bipolar Bifacial Exemption. It wasn’t expected to happen like this, the bifacial exemption was on the block but insiders thought it wouldn’t be seriously reviewed until the mid-term review of the 201 tariffs. This is the Trump times though and the bifacial exemption is officially gone. This means that the utility-scale developers that sought to get a premium output module without the 201 tariff are now back to square one. The winner is First Solar but in reality, they were sold out in the near future anyways which means we’re all losers. Here is my beef with this, the 180 turn in regulation cost companies millions of dollars and time they won’t get back. Engineering has to be redone, business plans, layouts and potentially even financing documentation.
Perry Ends His Stay. Rick Perry is coming to the end of his reign at the Department of Energy. He came into the administration looking to be the global head of business development for the US oil and gas industry and that looks to be the reason for his departure. Over the weekend Axios reported that Trump was putting the blame of the Ukraine call on his Energy secretary so the departure is somewhere between ‘get me out of here and make money lobbying’ and ‘you’re the fall guy and be a good soldier’. Who will be the next Energy secretary? Your guess is as good as mine, but since the secretary safeguards the US nuclear arsenal I hope someone gets the nod.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 4th, 2019
Back Next Week. I’ve been slacking with the daily column, mostly because SPI and the day job have been taking on a lot of time building the industry’s most bankable and valuable racking company. If every installer started using Quick Mount PV products tomorrow, I promise to give you all the commentary you’d ever want! Until then, split duties will continue. (Speaking of, there’s no reason you’re not already using our products, they’re great and made in Walnut Creek!) Have a great weekend!
Survey. Yesterday you got a survey if you attended SPI. The message is simple, great show but you need the ITC so at least 5% of the profits should be contributed to the Defend the ITC fund. Let’s see how many of you we can get to fill out the survey!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 3rd, 2019
Silence From DC. Since my proposal this week for the SPI organizers to revert $500k of profits to the ITC extension organizing effort, I have heard from many of you but nobody with the power of the purse. The message was delivered and heard but the response is in the mail (or not). Look, this is a one in a million chance but I am hoping that doing the right thing becomes reality.
Smart Energy. There is a lot of logic in pricing the cost of carbon in everything that we buy but that’s not the way our economy works. We subsidize the entire economic value chain so that consumers get whatever they want. So a carbon tax makes sense, though politicians are unlikely to go for it but it seems to be the topic that DC wants to debate so we don't actually do anything tangible.
ITC Homework. What are you doing today to extend the ITC? Have you called your members’ office or visited the district office?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 2nd, 2019
Will Illinois Step Up Again. It’s been almost two years since we hosted SolarWakeup Live! Chicago where we talked about CEJA and the possibilities ahead. Now the legislature needs to do more work to keep the momentum going and solar will get its report card on the promises made on environmental justice, job training and collaboration with labor.
A Natural Bridge To Nowhere. I normally stay out of the natural gas debate focusing on solar instead. We don’t need gas to do poorly to prop solar up. Here’s the thing thou, the consumers are getting conned by regulators and utilities. Gas is a necessary evil currently but it’s not cheap. Monopolies get a free 30-year hedge on natural gas commodity pricing, land and resource benefits and a guaranteed return higher than any sponsor in solar gets. So I am glad to see that the MN PSC sees the downside of letting the utility saddle the consumers with another stranded asset.
Diversified Portfolio. Saudi Aramco is finalizing its plan for the much-awaited IPO. I’m interested to see what, if anything the S-1 says about renewable energy. I don’t think it will but you could see some vision of the future if Aramco does indeed include mentions of solar.
FERC Divided. FERC is a bipartisan commission, the two leaders of the Senate send their names to the White House for nominations. (If you need a lesson on how this works, watch West Wing episode S1E21) Anyways, this time the White House is planning on getting its ridiculous plans through FERC by leaving the Dem seat open. This could be bad, very bad.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 1st, 2019
Opinion
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 30, 2019
Historic SPI. Solar, solar, solar. And solar pros. According to insiders, SPI 2019 drew 19,000 to Salt Lake City which handled the crowd quite nicely. I found manoeuvring the traffic on the scooters quite easy and able to get through the week without much pain. Definitely easier on the body when SPI is in SLC instead of Vegas. The booths were nice, some actually made me step back and appreciate the attention to detail and overall design, but I saw those dollar signs as well. Now get back to work!
The Energy Bearhug. If you didn’t get it from the name change, the team that is producing SPI added a bunch of other things to the show creating the show known as North American Smart Energy Week. When this publication came out to question this decision the defence was an old fashioned bearhug. SEPA came out in defence of the name change saying “Smart Electric Power Alliance & Solar Energy Industries Association have expanded our show to be Smart Energy Week, it’s because - as critical as solar is - no one technology can get us to carbon-free.” The truth is that the name change wasn’t a unanimous decision and the benefit of it is still being debated.
A Call To Commit. All of the above is noise in a world where we need to get an ITC extension. While SEIA is actively fighting and pushing for it, educating and lobbying legislators, something it is able to do as a 501(c)6, SEPA has historically stayed out of this education afraid to endanger its 501(c)3 status. Hoping to get $500k into the ITC fight, I am calling for the organizers of SPI to give $500k towards the ITC extension efforts. Why? SETS makes money by producing trade shows like SPI and the regional shows. Those shows depend on paid attendance, exhibitors and sponsors. When the ITC reduces and disappears, so do the show profits. SETS will make north of $10million this year and 5% for this fight is a minimal effort by the organization. This is not a novel idea, here is SEIA proposing this exact idea.
My Takeaway. The Smart Energy Week name change was a bust. This show was all solar, even the energy storage messaging centred around solar. The East Bay CCA signed a massive solar plus storage deal at the sPower booth because solar is what people want. Putting the SPI logo side by side, the same size, with hydrogen and microgrids is a slap in the face of solar. This idea was a fail and needs to end permanently. Who knows, if this editorial can’t stop it, maybe nuclear and biomass join the party next year too? Speaking of solar, I commend SEIA for doing a great job on their part. Their team was on me with messaging all week long, working the floor, raising money and trying to grow membership. When I walk the floor I see SEIA members everywhere, this really has become an SEIA show. Speaking of, it also seems to be a show filled with profitable companies or some well on their way towards them.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 27, 2019
SPI 2019 In The Books. The show is over and the curtains are drawn, your pockets are full of business cards and we’ll all blast nice to meet you emails on Monday. My flight back to San Francisco was the solar express, the LG sales rep next to me was not waiting until Monday to say thank you to the booth visitors! On Monday we will discuss the SPI versus NASEW, a boring and tedious topic but worthy of listening to your feedback. We will also talk about the ITC as this swings into high gear. Use the hashtag #DefendTheITC and here is the tweet from Senator Cortez-Masto Go ahead a hit like and retweet to show your thanks!
Thank You! I want to personally thank you all for the congratulations, feedback and hellos this week. Sometimes SolarWakeup is a funny thing for me given the weird dynamic between my day job and this newsletter. This was my 7th SPI since starting, I went to SPI in Orlando with about 40 subscribers and now there are more than 5,000 of you that read this daily digest. It was never meant to be a thing, but you made it one and I’m grateful for that. The dialogue you allow me to have and the help you provide to make this industry a better one is amazing. The funny thing is that a few weeks ago, right as we were closing on our sale to Esdec, SolarWakeup had its 7th birthday. A week later, as I got to know the great people at Ironridge and Ecofasten, we sent out the 2,500th edition of this newsletter. So thank you for the professional support and helping me get to where I have and continuing your support of Quick Mount as we join the Esdec group. I’m excited about the future of this industry and this company. Alongside the amazing solar installers, we will do some great things. Have a great weekend!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 26, 2019
In Case You Missed It. There is a word on the SPI floor that there is no theme this year, no focus on a regulatory matter that deserves major attention. Let me be very clear, we can get the ITC extended if we do the work and spend the money. If we don’t get the funds, about half a million dollars, and the calls/meetings to members of Congress, the ITC will not be extended. This is a cost of nearly $100billion to the US economy and likely dollars out of your pocket. Don’t get caught in the messaging whirlpool that is SPI, and focus on the real things that impact your money. If you need to know how to get involved, hit reply.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 25, 2019
The Marathon Continues. And the tax credit extension will create a fortune.
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Yann