The Energy Show: By Barry Cinnamon
The Energy Show: By Barry Cinnamon
These days you can’t watch TV, read a news story or listen to the radio without seeing catastrophic fires, hurricanes, and high temperatures. The world is getting hotter. To illustrate, Death Valley recorded the hottest month ever recorded on Earth. Temperatures averaged 108.1 degrees day and night, all of July 2018. That beat last year’s record monthly temperature. This is not just a U.S. only story, it’s a worldwide issue. During the month of July 2018 record high temperatures were set on every single continent in the northern hemisphere (it was winter in the southern hemisphere). Politicians, policymakers and leaders all over the world created the Paris Climate Agreement in 2016 — which every country in the world joined except for outcast Syria. Syria stepped up to the Paris Climate Agreement in 2017 — and then during the same year President Trump withdrew from the Agreement. The U.S. is the only country in the world that is not a signatory of the Paris Climate Agreement, the intention of which is to avoid a likely slow motion global warming disaster. We have been euphemistically describing this problem as “climate change.” Yes, the climate is changing, and it is getting hotter. So I am back to describing this looming catastrophe as “global warming.” There are a few scientists who still believe that this global warming is not caused by mankind, is part of a natural cycle, or is not really a problem (Iceland could be the new Costa del Sol). Nevertheless, according to ongoing temperature analyses conducted by climate scientists at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about .8 degree Celsius which is 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880. Two thirds of the warming has incurred since 1975 at a rate of .15 to .2 degrees per decade. Natural processes are generally not linear — this warming is speeding up. We may be getting close to a tipping point at which global warming dramatically accelerates, flooding coastal areas and creating conditions so hot in many countries that humans can no longer survive. Please Listen up to this week’s Energy Show as we share various scientific and media perspectives on global warming. It’s time to panic and act.By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent
By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent
Though the overall solar market declined in Q2 of 2018, there was good news to be had in the utility-scale and residential sectors. Those are the headlines from the Q2 U.S. Solar Market Insight Report from the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Woods MacKenzie Power & Renewables (WKPR) (formerly GTM Research). As some predicted, the decision by the Chinese to halt their domestic market sent component prices into a nosedive, which allowed the utility-scale solar market to procure nearly 8.5 GW of solar in the second quarter. Lower than expected tariffs - starting at 30% - also contributed to the surge. But even the residential solar, which had struggled in recent quarters to the tune of a 15% contraction in 2017, is showing increasing stability, according to the most recent numbers.[wds id="3"]
“Once lower-than-expected module tariffs were announced in January 2018, developers and utilities began announcing new projects,” Wood Mackenzie Senior Analyst Colin Smith writes in the report. “As we move toward 2019, we expect to see continued procurement growth as developers look to secure projects they can bring online before the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) steps down to 10 percent in 2022.”
In the residential sector, 577 MW were installed in the second quarter of the year, which were flat compared to the previous quarter as well as year on year. According to WKPR, "declines in previous quarters were less a symptom of the tariffs but instead a result of customer acquisition challenges and the scaling back of several large installers. The report points to the leveling out of the market as a sign that customer acquisition challenges may be subsiding. Emerging residential state markets like Florida and Nevada posted large gains in installations and helped the segment rebound."
In other words, as SEIA President and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said, the tariffs have had some effect on the solar industry, but it is too strong to stay down for long. Indications are that the second half of 2018 will remain strong, and that 2019 could be a rebound year.
Other key findings from the report include:
- In Q2 2018, the U.S. market installed 2.3 GWdc of solar PV, a 9% year-over-year decrease and a 7% quarter-over-quarter decrease.
- In the first half of 2018, 29% of all new electricity generating capacity brought online in the U.S. came from solar PV.
- For a second consecutive quarter, the residential PV sector was essentially flat on both a year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter basis – an encouraging sign of market stabilization after a year in which the market contracted 15%.
- Non-residential PV fell 16% quarter-over-quarter and 8% year-over-year.
- Corporate procurement of utility PV through physical PPAs, virtual PPAs, and green tariffs has grown to account for 12% of projects in development.
- Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables forecasts flat growth in 2018 vs. 2017, with another 10.9 GWdc of new PV installations expected.
- Total installed U.S. PV capacity is expected to more than double over the next five years. By 2023, more than 14 GWdc of PV capacity will be installed annually.
Stay Safe Carolinas. Hurricane Florence is bearing down on the Carolinas with fierce wind and rain. Trees will fall on power lines and it will take time to get everyone back up and running. I was there a year ago when I had to miss SPI to evacuate for hurricane Irma. It was then that I realized that I needed to move out to California away from the storms. Interesting outlook on the solar infrastructure in North Carolina from Bloomberg ahead of the storm.
DNV’s Outlook. The Energy Transition Outlook has an interesting takeaway, calling for renewable sources to make up 80% of the electricity generation by 2050. This is only a few points and years off the recent legislative goal set by California’s 100% by 2045 with the clean energy/renewable sources caveat before I get lectured on the detail of the comparison. Frank highlights some of the more important parts of the report.
Obvious Pruitt. He’s going to work for a coal company. Surprised that he didn’t go solar post-EPA.
Aligning Advocacy. Vote Solar announced yesterday that it is supporting the Steyer backed ballot question in Arizona. This comes a day after the ACC sided with the solar argument for the grid access charges. Consumers are expected to be bombarded with millions in anti-clean energy advertising but I would be surprised if the ballot question doesn’t pass.
SolarWakeup Live New Jersey. November 6th, agenda and tickets on solarwakeuplive.com
Have a great day!
News
5 Greentech Media:
How Community Choice Aggregation Fits Into California’s Clean Energy Future
6 Renew Economy:
Tritium wins US backing to make ultra-fast EV chargers smaller and cheaper
Opinions:
9 Huffington Post:
For States That Have Already Met Their Renewable Energy Goals, A New Question - Now What?
Have a great day!
Yann
By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent
By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent
Vote Solar announced today that it and the Arizona small business community have come out behind Proposition 127, a ballot initiative that would enshrine a 50% renewable portfolio standard (RPS) by 2030. Arizona's current RPS is 15%. Prop 127, backed by progressive billionaire Tom Steyer, has been mired in controversy as the state's three largest utilities - Arizona Public Service (APS), Tucson Electric Power (TEP) and the Salt River Project (SRP) - have all funded political action committees to oppose the proposition. APS even brought a lawsuit challenging the signatures on the ballot petitions, a suit that was settled when a judge decided enough of the signatures were valid to keep the initiative in front of voters in November.[wds id="3"]
In offering its support, Art Terrazas, Interior West director at the Vote Solar Action Fund said:
Arizona is one of the sunniest states in the nation, and the people of Arizona overwhelmingly support putting more of that plentiful sunshine to work supporting good jobs and healthier families. Proposition 127 gives Arizonans the opportunity to vote for that brighter energy future at the ballot this fall. “We are proud to be speaking up for Proposition 127 and a stronger solar powered Arizona with these local business leaders and community stakeholders across the state.Arizona is the third pillar in Steyer's three-state strategy. Under the leadership of state-level groups funded by him, Steyer already has an initiative on the ballot in Nevada, and his efforts in Michigan led to a negotiated settlement in which the state's three largest utilities have pledged to eliminate coal from their portfolios by 2045 and increase their investments in renewable energy. Rooftop solar installers, as you might imagine, support Prop 127 and are thrilled to have Vote Solar on their side. "Thanks to innovation and the individual choices of thousands of consumers who have demanded new energy choices, solar energy has become one of the most affordable energy resources across the United States," said Louis Woofenden with Tucson-based Net Zero Solar. "That’s especially true here in sunny Arizona. It just makes sense that Arizona should be using more of our plentiful and affordable renewable energy resources to power our homes, businesses and communities with a ‘yes’ vote on Proposition 127.”