This is your SolarWakeup for March 4th, 2020

California Dreamin’. Super Tuesday has come and gone and California is going to take its time to give us the results. At the time of this writing it looks like Biden may come out in the lead when all the results are in though the expectations were that Sanders would be ahead by at least 50 pledged delegates. For solar, there is going to be a discussion over the next few months what the trade environment would look like in a Sanders administration versus how aggressive a Biden administration would be on energy topics.

Big Day For Vote Solar. Vote Solar has been actively making its case to advance solar policies in Florida and New Mexico. In Florida the goal was to make the largest community solar program accessible to low income families albeit owned by the utility. First getting the proposal expanded to be more attractive to more people and then having the program approved by the PSC. In New Mexico, the Governor will sign a revival to a modest tax credit which will make solar a little bit more attractive for homeowners, another win for solar.

Hold Your Gas Powered Horses. As Wall Street sours on coal, it’s too far to say that investors are giving up natural gas in favor of utilities. Investors for those two buckets are not interchangeable for one and the sustained low natural gas prices may be what is causing investors to park their money elsewhere. At the same time, investors have an unlimited appetite for renewable energy infrastructure investments. The limitation to total deployment remains project pipelines.

Look Out Global DG. The renaissance happening across the world is happening behind the meter. Consumers have long wanted to add solar and ROI was typically the biggest limitation to that effort. With the global price of solar more likely than not to be less than the cost of the grid, DG solar is booming in the US and abroad. While DG is not without complication, it is ripe to be disrupted in more ways than one and ready to get much bigger than anyone is forecasting. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for March 3rd, 2020

Happy Super Tuesday. 14 States are voting today and almost 1,400 delegates are up for grabs. Tomorrow we will have a better view on what the rest of the year looks like. That being said, without doing a play by play on what’s happening with coronavirus, we are bound to get a lot of unknown unknowns coming at us as well.

A Climate Policy Point. Axios is making the point that no matter what happens in November, climate policy is going to be difficult to get through Congress and don’t expect much to happen. Whether something passes, something progressive has legs or if DC will just shut down is a scenario that will play itself out. Also, expect that much of anything that gets passed to get the judicial examination we’ve come to get used to.

The Counterpoint. On the other hand if the White House were to switch sides, would mean a significant boost to markets like solar. For one, the ITC wouldn’t have been removed from the extenders package like it did last year. If Trump has taught us anything, it is the power of the presidential pen especially for items labeled as a national emergency. Under a national emergency, the President would have the ability to shuffle dollars in a way to achieve the goals of the White House. My point is that a democrat in the White House could prove to be a climate policy by itself, without thinking about the broader, but much needed, congressional legislation.

But Wait. As we’re arguing about what happens post-November, there is a climate bill going through the Senate. Nothing entirely aspirational about the bill but it is a climate bill in name. Let’s see if anything more tangible gets attached to the legislation if it sees a floor vote and time in the House.

Impact Of The Day. Sir Christopher Hohn made headlines a few months ago when his hedge fund argued that they would target directors of companies that are not doing right by climate policies. Taking this one step further, Sir Christopher wrote a letter to major banks about their coal financing activities. The letter outlines the poor fiduciary responsibility that the banks are showing but in an interview revealed plans to mount legal challenges against the boards of the banks. These legal challenges could prove to have the type of impact directors view as existential to their decision making and oversight activities.

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for March 2nd, 2020

Happy Monday! What news is driving your business this week? As always, you can be in touch with me and the SolarWakeup team by writing us at yann@solarwakeup.com or reaching out on Twitter @yannbrandt or @solarwakeup.

Touching Base On Coronavirus. The virus is now geographically everywhere including most States in the US. Testing is slow to get started so expect that number to jump significantly once the broader reach of testing has occurred. The question is how this will affect everyday life until it is contained, major conferences are already being canceled and companies are talking about remote work for all. The solar industry should prepare for some disruptions as well given that many modules have origins in Asia where factories may be slow to get up and running.

Pennsylvania Solar Development. Development is all about getting the timing right and showing the path to investors for a project that has land rights, interconnection and revenue stream. If the economics work out and risk is properly mitigated, the project can move forward. Pennsylvania is the Texas of the Northeast. Land is plentiful and regulations are more lax to get a project approved for land use. Most importantly, you can install solar about 25% cheaper than New Jersey and still access the PJM market. Stay tuned for more action in PA.

The Nuclear Myth and Challenge. Supporters of nuclear energy tout the carbon free nature and the 24/7 ability to produce electricity. This isn’t wrong but the problem with nuclear is more fundamental. Can someone build a nuclear plant that can be built without priceless subsidies like insurance and waste mitigation and be built on time and on budget without the need for early cost recovery. Put those pieces in place and maybe there is something to talk about.

No More Subsidies. Solar has an internal talking point that rarely makes the headlines, maybe one of the many reporters will come out and steal it from here. All energy sources should lose access to subsidies, all of them. Tax incentives, land use, rate base, fuel cost guarantees, mineral rights, exploration and right of ways to start. Get rid of that and the market will be free to let consumers choose!

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 28th, 2020

Friday Rundown.Big news on the rundown today, moving parts all over the Country in markets and issues within supply chains and DC. It’s always helpful to read what public companies are saying to get a grip of the market and risks around our market. Now that Sunrun, Enphase, Solaredge, SunPower and Sunnova have reported, take the weekend to read some filings..
.
Have A Great Weekend!

Opinion

Best, Yann