Tag Archives: Daily Rundown

This is your SolarWakeup for April 28th, 2020

Talking Solar(Wakeup) Live. SolarWakeup Live! The podcast is back. A returning guest in Tom Matzzie joins me for the first episode of the relaunch. This is a straight to tape conversation about solar, power markets and politics. Tom plays in all three sandboxes and he’s really good at them. He points to the erosion in commercial power demand and the nuances of those contracts, definitely something to watch. Please find the podcast on Apple Podcast and subscribe and rate 5 stars. If you have interesting guests that want to talk solar, regulations, finance and climate tech, send them my way.

The Resi Market Fragmentation. With the Q1 PV leaderboard out in public, manufacturers are taking their moment in the sun. This time Q Cells took that top spot in resi modules with market share in the 20’s. The fragmentation in every other segment is also very real except for the duopoly in the inverter market. Software is a segment in the market that has attracted enormous investment and almost every installer uses something but the interesting thing is that none of the platforms are getting any real traction taking share. In the latest poll, we saw over 10 software platforms mentioned for use by installers. Pricing for software is as different as it is in modules. In the ongoing solar module index, the above mentioned Q Cells modules have a price range of 15% between installers for the same module. The are 3 spots left in the initial batch for residential installers looking to learn more about how their module pricing matches up.

Buy The Dip. Large investors in solar assets are frothing at the mouth for the buying opportunity which may have already come and gone. The same is true for hedge funds buying stocks and private equity firms looking to buy companies. Prices are going to be much more attractive in a space that many passed on because they weren’t sure it was going to be sustainable. Watching the solar industry’s resilience now makes everyone look at the fundamental strength of the market and consumer. Solar has a product market fit while also achieving product market cost fit and that’s the trifecta. Look at my point above about software. The segment is completely fragmented but new entrants into the US space that have achieved great scale overseas (and lessons learned) like OpenSolar are providing user friendly and robust software at no cost to solar installers. Their CEO, Birchy, is a good friend of mine and he knows what it takes to build the business as a founder and CEO of Sungevity. Hard to imagine that installers aren’t going to give the free product a few looks.

My Bullish Take. I am increasingly optimistic that the consumer behavior is going to get back to where we were with a potential increase in adoption with a definite increase of interest in solar. Putting solar on your house fits with the mold of being stuck in the home more than before. My bullishness goes further than that in three parts. First, the solar salesforce is going to be able to meet with more customers and be geographically separated from the company. This means you can live in Iowa and sell solar in California while also meeting with two or three times as many customers in any given day. This will lower acquisition costs in a big way. Second, building departments aren’t going to be in person for the foreseeable future and likely never go back to the slower way of doing things. This means that the speed from sale to installation could be cut in half or even better improving cash flows and standardization in the industry. Lastly, remote inspections are likely to gain traction across the board. An inspector goes to the site to ‘see’ what is done. For solar, a geotagged video with accompanying images can let the inspector do this much faster without the cost of driving. I’m hopeful that the days of waiting all day for the inspector could be gone for good. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for April 27th, 2020

Sales And Leads. In last week’s survey we saw what the future in solar may look like. Sales were down from pre-covid levels by 39% holding flat week over week remaining an improvement from the bottom 3 weeks ago. On the other hand, lead volume is up 18%. We are starting to see companies pivoting into the new normal and some executing better than others, some investing into the transition while others are waiting. Close rate will likely drop across the board but your sales force will be able to meet with double or triple the customers than before, more to come on this. 

 A Growing Backlog.  With sales continuing and installations slowed or stopped, there was a concern in my mind that the gap in solar would prolong beyond shelter in place orders. This would happen if companies built out their pre-covid backlog and didn’t add new projects during the current worst times. Good news, 45% of residential installers report that their backlog is growing. This is bad for current revenues but creates an optimistic outlook as business resumes in some fashion. 

 Look At Building Departments. The issue of getting and closing permits is now split into two concerns for me. Over 50% of building departments are presenting options for digital permitting, some even doing instant permitting. This is a great sign and potentially permanent improvement to make solar installation processes more efficient. On the other hand less than 10% of the AHJs are doing remote or video inspections. I am being told by those that are working on this with inspectors that we can foresee many AHJs moving into this direction soon. We will track this again next week when the bi-weekly survey reopens. 

Disconnected Charging. Congrats to FreeWire for raising $25million of new capital. Not a great time to do that but their business is fascinating to me. 

How To Run PG&E. PG&E is starting a search for a new CEO as the bankruptcy comes to a close. The business is still complicated and very regulated, with oversight by courts and state regulators in partnership with legislators, employees and unions. The new CEO should have the resume strong in power generation especially as it pertains to competitive power markets. At the same time the values of the new executive team should align with those of the consumers and legislated goals set forth by the State of California. Getting to 100% clean energy shouldn’t just be a task for the CEO, it should be a value that they also believe in. 

News And Happenings At Wakeup HQ. Last week, the SolarWakeup podcast kicked back off with fantastic interviews with the CEOs of CleanChoice Energy and Palmetto Clean Technology. In both episodes, we talk about their business and how the new norms are changing market conditions and how they are adjusting. This summer we will also be launching some new products that go to the core of empower solar companies across the ecosystem. Much more to come on this…

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for April 24th, 2020

Stay Tuned. For reasons outside of your control, there will not be a column today. Stay tuned for the survey results and a new survey link on Monday. Good news, things are improving.

Stay Safe. I hope you make the best of the situation and by all means use the sunshine to absorb some vitamin D and create some electricity. Thanks to your advocacy friends you can even inject excess electricity into the grid. Please don’t attempt other uses of sunshine however. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for April 23rd, 2020

Creating Shared Experiences. Solar advocate, Alex McDonough, joins in an editorial about the need to fight climate change. Flattening the curve is a term that 6 weeks ago meant nothing to most and living the life of a less habitable planet was a figment of an unreachable imagination. Now that our living situation has surpassed the wildest Hollywood script, can we learn and prevent the climate crisis collision course we are steaming towards.

UN Has A Thought. On the 50th anniversary of Earth Day the UN is calling for an economic recovery rooted in environmental benefits. Similarly to the statement by Tom Steyer I covered yesterday, the opportunity to build new jobs in building an expanded climate positive economy.

Let’s Build, Smartly.  Marc Andreesen has been quieter when it comes to his digital footprint. As the author of ‘Software will eat the world’ and perhaps the father of tweet threads, when Marc writes it gets talked about. In his article ‘It’s time to build’ he makes the case that we do too little thinking and even less doing when it comes to the big issues facing our Country. I agree with his general thesis and note that the reason may not be doing these things is that capitalism doesn’t reward that kind of execution.

Take The Helm. “The CPUC will closely monitor the selection of PG&E’s next CEO” is the comment that caps the news that PG&E’s Bill Johnson, formerly of the TVA as the highest paid federal employee and formerly of Progress Energy Florida, is leaving this summer. I definitely have some hopes and recommendations for PG&E’s shareholders on how to maximize their value. Here’s the thing, Nextera beat expectations and is going to invest billions on solar and storage and their Governor doesn’t even really care. In California, Governor Newsom not only cares, the legislature has passed policy saying that the goal is 100% renewable energy. Imagine being able to do good, follow policy and maximize shareholder value at the same time.

What Is Climate tech? Alternative energy, renewable energy, clean tech and now climate tech. What does that mean and “what’s in a name? That which we call a rose By any other name would smell as sweet.” That’s the real trick here, I’ve been in solar for 15 years and some of you much longer and it’s always been a market that generally moves up and to the right even as punches and bruises happen along the way. Climate tech has the ability to make the smell a rose because when it comes to free market capitalism, the hope for enormous return requires sentiment on our side. Climate tech is the name today for what we already know but this time everyone wants to get on the train.

Get Involved. Yesterday, many of you started to get involved and some reached out to learn more. The solar module index is exactly what the name says, you (the installer) will share confidentially information about what you’re paying and in return get to see (without names) what everyone else is. It’s like buying an airline ticket online, you have information to make better decisions. I expect that the free slots in the index will run out today so if you’re interested, head to the survey or get more info on the website. 

Opinion

Best, Yann