Social Distancing. Before we get into the headlines and solar market, let’s take a step back to recognize the gravity of the current situation. Now that it has reached the pandemic levels and changed everything about our everyday lives, we realize that what we do in normal times relies on a level of stability that currently does not exist. In the hopes of getting back to normal as fast as possible do your part and stay away from others as much as possible, there are plenty of infographics that show you what happens when people isolate and stop the spread of the virus. Not only will things get back to normal you will likely help save some lives at the same time. If you need some additional pressure of what happens when the ‘flu’ spreads across the globe, read this 1997 piece by Malcom Gladwell about the Spanish Flu.

Let’s Track The Delays. Like everything in the economy right now, there is going to be a pause to growth as people stay home to isolate and stop the spread of COVID-19. With the longer cycles of utility scale and C&I to be less affected by the short term, SolarWakeup is going to track any slowdown that may occur. This survey is meant for residential solar installers given that is where 60% of the solar jobs sit and there are weekly/daily sales, loan closings and installations. This will give us a tracking view of the market and provide the feedback we need to make our business decisions. Please take 5 minutes and fill out this survey if you are a residential installer, if you are not an installer please send it to a few that you know. This is the network effect of data that helps us all. Here is the link.

The Positive Outlook. While the CDC has asked for society to stop gathering in groups greater than 50 for the next 8 weeks, I look at the positive. 8 weeks is achievable and we should look at this in a positive way. The CDC could have said longer and there may be a few weeks coming up where we’re asked to stay home altogether. The solar market was going to grow by over 25% this year, which means that ever losing 8 weeks would mean we can rebound and catch up. With the fed rate dropping to zero, we may see better rates for solar loans across all market segments creating opportunity to scale everywhere. I’m optimistic that we will do the right thing as a society and come out ready to do big things.

Let Solar Help. Many of you may be going through business hurdles through this pandemic. I can’t promise that we can help everyone but let me speak on behalf of the industry that if there are issues or questions that are hurting your business, please let me know and I’ll do my best to advise or put you in contact with someone that could be helpful. My email is yann@solarwakeup.com.

The Survey. Don’t forget to participate in the survey and please share this tweet to get it out as much as possible. 

• Greentech Media: For Wind and Solar Sectors, Biggest Coronavirus Risk May Be a Damaged Economy
• PV-Tech: JinkoSolar expects no ‘material’ COVID-19 impact in 2020 after record 2019
• Axios: The impact of coronavirus spans the energy universe
• EDF: Report shows Texas leadership on solar and wind is helping safeguard our power grid
• Utility Dive: Green tariffs drive big increases in corporate renewable procurement
• Bloomberg: Wind and Sun Aplenty But Investors Wary of Australia Renewables
• Vox: 4 astonishing signs of coal’s declining economic viability

Opinion

• GreenBiz: Why feminine leadership is essential for the clean energy transition

Best, Yann

Pre-Corona Survey. Here are the highlights of the market survey released this week, answers coming between March 10th-11th. Respondents ranged from installers (35%), manufacturers (15%) and developers (25%). You covered every market in the Country with half of you doing business in California but MA (45%), NJ (38%), CT (31%), FL (27%) and AZ (27%) were also represented.

Q1 Improvement. While 25% of you saw no improvement in Q1 over last year, 55% of respondents were up in the first quarter over last year.

The Corona First Take. This is where timing of the survey is important. All of the responses came before March Madness, NBA, NHL, MLS and little league games were canceled due to the pandemic. 62% of the answers said that coronavirus had no impact on your Q1 sales and 48% said that you are not adjusting the Q2 forecast. My assumption is that a survey next week would have different numbers. 39% of you are adjusting the forecast by 0-20% downward.

What You’re Doing. Many of you shared with your actions in anticipation of which the most two most common were: no travel and work from home. Some also highlighted that society will now learn to wash hands once again. I’m interested to learn what companies are doing across the industry to manage their business through the crisis and if there are any changes to the economic business model of the sector. Please take your time to send your ideas and concerns to yann@solarwakeup.com, together we will manage through this.

Looking Ahead. There are going to be more questions than answers over the next week while the world settles into the reality that the virus is spreading everywhere. Without being hysteric, the way to solve the spread or flatten the curve is to isolate for as long as possible. Expect companies to have as many people as possible working from home while doing their best to keep moving business forward. I will circulate another survey next week and check the pulse of the industry. Typically I look to have podcast interviews that have some longevity to them but I will likely do a few interviews on this topic in the coming weeks to give you critical information for your business.

• Greentech Media: Goldman Sachs Partners With Greenskies Alums to Launch Distributed Solar Venture
• EDF: Illinois’ Clean Energy Jobs Act puts people and climate first
• Yahoo: Solar Company Backs Federal Aid for Oil Drillers Facing Collapse
• Axios: Joe Biden is facing closer scrutiny of his climate plans
• Vox: Virginia becomes the first state in the South to target 100% clean power
• Reuters: Volkswagen plans to tap electric car batteries to compete with power firms
• PV-Tech: ‘Solarcity Masterplan’ – Berlin eyes 4.4GW of rooftop solar by 2050
• Utility Dive: Over reliance on gas in PREPA IRP jeopardizes Puerto Rico’s 100% clean energy goals, groups say
• NPR: Apartment Dwellers At New Complex Benefit From Rooftop Solar Panels 

Opinion

• GreenBiz: How companies led the way on clean energy in Virginia

Best, Yann

Market Survey Pre-Read. As we get through the many responses here are some early data points. 90% of you are somewhat or very concerned about coronavirus and more than 50% of you are adjusting your Q2 forecast downward. The survey appears to have come too early to find measurable change in consumer behavior or changes to pricing in systems, modules or other hardware. More data from the survey coming tomorrow including what steps respondents are taking to keep their business operational.

DC Quick Read. The bill of bi-partisan bills in the Senate was soaked in mediocrity that it failed to get the 60 votes it needed to get out of filibuster. We now wait to see what happens with the bailout, stimulus legislation that is circulating between the White House and Congress. The White House is floating headlines for oil and gas stimulus to see where the public gets excited including a payroll tax cut that moved the markets up on Tuesday while the House is floating a paid sick leave bill before their weeklong recess coming up. Apparently we don’t know what we don’t know so let’s wait and see.

A Trade Letter. Yesterday 140 companies signed on to another letter to the White House asking for tariff related relief, read the letter in the link in the 3rd story today. 

• Scientific American: Trump’s Next Chief of Staff Is Open to Doing More on Climate
• Greentech Media: Massive Senate Energy Bill Falters
• Solar Power World: 140 solar companies ask Trump administration to moderate panel tariffs
• Utility Dive: Indiana passes coal plant support bill as Democrats removed from conference committee deliberations
• New Hampshire Business Review: New Hampshire Senate digs deep into renewable energy policy
• Axios: Tesla weighs Nashville for new vehicle factory
• Bloomberg: Virus Threatens to Blunt China Solar Recovery on Project Delays
• PV-Tech: Daqo takes polysilicon production costs to solar industry record low

Opinion

• GreenBiz: Sound investments to decarbonize the world’s industries

Best, Yann

Don’t Forget The Survey. One more day to get your survey response in, it takes 3 minutes and helps the entire industry. Here is the link

Solar Power Power. DC is going to pass a stimulus bill in the coming weeks to deal with the economic effects of corona and the oil price wars. Focusing on the second one, oil producers across the US will either stop production or lose money with the low oil price that’s now in the market. The White House is floating and the Senate will try to push into the stimulus bill a bailout or tax credit for oil companies. This is going to be the moment of truth for solar advocates in DC, does solar have any political influence that translates into results? The analysis of that question will be black and white, either the ITC returns and gets extended or solar is left out of the bill. There will be a bill and the answer will be yes or no when it comes to solar.

The Network Effect. The dealer network is a new battleground in residential solar. Module OEMs and financing companies are battling for the primary value creator for solar installers across the Country. At the same time, those that should have a bigger dealer network are underestimating the value that they can provide and in return receive from the dealers.

The Battle Is On. The original dealer network came from SunPower, so powerful that the company’s partners rebranded to SunPower by. Loan companies followed suit, Mosaic taking the lead and Sunnova quickly joining the network creation which made sense given the financial relationship that exists between the installer, homeowner and loan provider. Module OEMs have a network of platinum or elite installers but the relationship is a bit looser at this point, but don’t sleep on this.

Control Of Sales Levers. Yesterday after market close, Vivint Solar released their fourth quarter earnings and held their conference call. The quote of the call was “we like the control of sales” referring to the company’s direct to consumer sales force that allows the company to decide where and how to sell solar. While Vivint believes that they can grow faster, they don’t want to grow for growth’s sake and keep their focus on markets where they can make money and grow faster than the rest of the market calling out MA, NJ and CA. How do you control your sales levers?

• Axios: White House weighing aid for oil producers amid price collapse
• Chicago Tribune: Shining a light on solar power – How Chicago homeowners — and apartment dwellers — can save with renewable energy
• Greentech Media: New Jersey Finalizes Transitional Solar Incentives, Giving Industry Price Certainty
• Utility Dive: Duke, Dominion, Southern won’t hit clean energy targets at current pace – Report
• Solar Power World: Force majeure – What does the coronavirus mean for your solar contract?
• PV-Tech: Yingli Green hit by resignation of all four independent directors
• Grist: Meet the 2020 Grist 50!
• Reuters: Pattern Energy shareholders approve CPPIB’s $2.63 billion deal
• Rocky Mountain Institute: Implementing Puerto Rico’s Energy Transformation

Opinion

• Bloomberg: What the Oil Price Crash Means for the Climate

Best, Yann