Virtual Edition Rewind. You can catch yesterday’s virtual edition of SolarWakeup Live! About virtual sales and digital operations here. Thanks for all that joined.

Big News Monday. Stay tuned for some big news on Monday. In the meantime, here is the one thing that caught my eye in reviewing the earnings slides for each report outlining the performance in Q1 this year. Note that COVID impact largely started with two weeks left in the quarter and the commentary is more indicative of what the future holds. That being said, there is a consistent message that Q2 will be 30% of 2019 and we have already hit bottom.

Sunrun. 2020 brings thus far the highest percentage of leases as a function of total projects, back to early 2018 levels. Q1 this year was bigger than Q2 2019. Slides.

Vivint Solar. The company also exceeded Q2 of 2019 and every quarter in 2018. System installation cost are the highest they’ve been in years, unsure what would have caused that. Company now has cumulatively installed 1.3GW of solar on homes. Slides.

SunPower. Slides are showing the company in a quasi split environment, anticipating the manufacturing to go away in 2020 to the Maxeon entity. The manufacturing plants are either back up and running or scheduled to. Balance sheet still shows the 2 million shares of Enphase the company owns from the sale of Solarbridge a few years ago. Note to SunPower execs, anything you want to do for my Solarbridge inverters on my house circa 2012 would be appreciated. Slides

Enphase. In Q1 2019 the company generated net income of $2.7million. In Q1 2020 that increased to $68million with margins at almost 40%. The stock is trading nearly at pre-COVID levels while upside is still huge given revenues are less than half that of Solaredge and GTM reports market share to be about half in US residential. Slides

Solaredge. The company shipped more optimizers and inverters and delivered higher revenues in Q1 2020 than in Q4 2019. In this quarter that company shipped 1.8GW of inverters. Slides

First Solar. Here’s some scale for you, the First Solar pipeline is over 12GW now and their module roadmap presents a 500W module in the near future. Not too bad for low efficiency thin film. The manufacturing plants are up and running at nearly full capacity. Slides

• PV-Magazine: First Solar earnings – strong Q1 and an uncertain 2020 guidance — like most every solar firm
• Greentech Media: SolarEdge and Enphase See Growth Slowing as COVID-19 Hits Inverter Market
• Axios: Coronavirus could do long-term environmental harm by reducing green investments
• PV-Tech: How smart microgrids are changing neighbourhoods around the world
• GreenBiz: Leading economists – Green COVID-19 recovery best for jobs and growth
• Rocky Mountain Institute: Lowering Costs and Carbon for Minnesota Co-ops
• Utility Dive: Securing relief amid COVID-19: 4 considerations for utilities
• Solar Industry: COVID-19 Impacts California’s Solar+Storage Industry

Opinion

• Solar Power World: Guest column – It’s time to end the direct sales model for community solar subscriptions

Best, Yann

Last Push. Fill out the survey which closes today at noon. We’ll be releasing the data next Monday. 

Podcast. Would love to hear your thoughts on the podcast, where we focus on the content and not so much on the production. A great episode with a big prediction from me at the end, check it out here, rate and subscribe. 

Cleanup At Oil Well #4. Oil wells are apparently being abandoned by companies and unfortunately causing many to lose their jobs. It is also causing environmental disasters in rural communities across the Country which are asking for government to hire those workers and cap the wells. Right after they do that, they should pay them to go through a solar training program and we can help place them into installation jobs in solar.

Solaredge and Sunrun Report Earnings. A trend is coming out in the earnings calls that the bottom in residential solar may be behind us and Q3 could be better than expected. A few more companies need to report so we get the whole picture but I tend to agree with the positive sentiment going into the second half of the year. The difference will be seen in how companies adapt to the way of working in their areas and how well their building departments react.

What’s Your Virtual Future? I am starting to hear from many of you that working from home is the long term normal for you regardless of the shelter in place rules. Now that you have seen how it is possible, as soon as the kids go back to school, you don’t want it any other way. This is also going to impact the conference circuit we’ve been on in the past decade. One trade show, Midwest Solar Expo is going virtual. I toured the concept yesterday and I was impressed. It’s an environment where you can walk through exhibits and auditoriums like you do at shows. The coolest part is the 3D sound of conversations as you walk through the floor. 

• Reuters: States ask Trump administration to pay laid off oil workers to plug abandoned wells
• PV-Magazine: Enphase PV microinverters shine in Q1, share price is up 15%
• Greentech Media: Sunrun Reports Sales Rebound After Coronavirus Slump, But Expects Slow Quarters Ahead
• Solar Power World: June’s Midwest Solar Expo will be a fully-immersive 3D virtual conference
• Axios: The push for post-coronavirus telework to help fight climate change
• Solar Builder: C&I Buyer’s Guide 2020 – Ground-mounts, rooftop racks, clamps and carports
• PV-Tech: Leak suggests renewables will be one of Europe’s recovery pillars – reports
• Rocky Mountain Institute: Tri-State Chooses the Low-Carbon Path

Opinion

• Utility Dive: DC Circuit grills NARUC, FERC on whether Order 841 will harm state ability to regulate distribution

Best, Yann

Get Your Survey On. A great response yesterday from many of you, let’s get one more push for the tracking survey to see how far from the bottom we have bounced back from. Please contribute to the survey before we close this tomorrow.

New Pod and Live! Last week I interviewed the CEO and President from Palmetto Clean Technology. As a mostly digital and remote solar company that supports residential solar execution, I wanted to see how the pandemic was impacting their operation and what their perspective was going forward. We also talk about their launch of a working capital solution. Don’t forget to subscribe and rate the podcast. You can also join me live! to talk about digitizing your business operations on Thursday morning pacific time, register here.

Impact Of COVID. I am starting to gather my thoughts on the market piece by piece which I will share more in the next week. This week we have earnings calls from solar companies including Enphase and Solaredge which give us a really good indication of where we are. Yesterday Enphase talked about Q1 which was stronger than Wall Street expected and guided to a COVID impacted Q2. During the call they mentioned what we at SolarWakeup have seen in the survey, we’ve hit the bottom and rebuilding the pipeline, backlog and getting back to work. More to come on this.

A New Loan Player. It’s the most obvious move in solar that you may be surprised to hear it. SunPower raised $1billion to finance loans and leases originated by their top of class dealer network. Partnering with Tech Credit Union, a long time solar player, SunPower will be lowering their financing costs and possibly see upside in any potential securitizations down the line. I will be interested to see how much of the financing efficiency flows down to the dealers when compared to traditional loan providers.

Electricity As The Indicator. Italy is seeing an uptick in energy consumption, a reminder that overall consumption is an economic indicator and unfortunately also a precursor to increase in pollution. How much goes back to the same old ways versus a new normal?

What Does Local Mean? Joel Makower from GreenBiz talks about an interesting topic that has personally spent a lot of time in my mind. I moved to the Bay Area almost two years ago to be close to the center of solar, being local to many of you. Now we’re close but I may as well be sitting in Paris. The opposite is also true, traveling to see family in Florida was easy 2 months ago and something we did often. Will I get on another airplane this year? Will you? At the end of the day, the most local of things in my life has been this newsletter, the relationships have no withered and actually grew in the past 2 months. Today is a big day as yesterday we reached 5,000 subscribers and I don’t take it for granted that every day a huge auditorium full of dedicated solar professionals reads these words. 

• Greentech Media: How Bad Are the Lockdowns for Home Solar Companies? We’ll Soon Find Out
• PV-Magazine: SunPower accesses $1 billion in residential solar and storage loan capital from Tech CU
• Bloomberg: Italy Leads Power Demand Recovery as Lockdowns Lift in Europe
• GreenBiz: Local – A glimmer of hope for a post-pandemic world
• Axios: The climate imbalance of trade barriers
• Solar Power World: SEIA pushes for deadline extensions and direct pay to save the solar industry
• PV-Tech: Confusion prevails over renewable impacts of Trump’s power equipment crackdown

Opinion

• Utility Dive: States should leave markets that don’t work for families and businesses after bad FERC decisions

Best, Yann

Survey #6. Dare I say it? You all are slacking with the survey contributions. They went from weekly to bi-weekly. Here is an example of how the data gets used: two weeks in a row your contributions say that building departments are slowing their use of digital solutions and not getting you permits. Regulators, who read this newsletter, contact me to see who is doing a good job and I introduce folks that then deliver digital permitting. At the same time, people with access to legislators are retelling your aggregated story to push for legislative solutions. My point is that my opinion doesn’t get the job done, your voice needs to come out. Fill out the survey. 

Thursday’s Webinar. We have less than 20 seats left for the webinar on digital and virtual lead generation to sales solutions. If you are trying to understand what goes into having a digital operating system for your company and investing more into lead generation, join us on Thursday. You can register here

Resi Capital. The survey has yet to say that resi solar is having a capital issue for loans or leases and a new capital raise by Spruce seems to second that motion. Great to see

IRP Growth. Dominion adjusted their long term IRP which changes the game for their solar and storage projections. Early reporting doesn’t show what this means for their coal and gas forecast nor how this is impacted by COVID related changes in consumer behavior. 

• SolarWakeup Surveys: Tracking The Solar Market Sentiment Survey
• PV-Magazine: Residential solar asset financing is alive and well as Spruce Finance closes $124 million deal
• Renewable Energy World: Dominion Energy Virginia seeks 24 GW of renewables and storage in long-term IRP
• Reuters: Amid pandemic, U.S. renewable power sources have topped coal for 40 days
• Greentech Media: Largest Solar Project in Eastern US Progresses Despite Market Uncertainty
• Utility Dive: Pueblo, Colorado, set to vote on exiting Black Hills Energy, forming a municipal utility
• GreenBiz: The new normal in sustainable investing post-COVID-19
• PV-Tech: EU solar generation jumps 28% year-on-year in month of lockdown

Opinion

• ILSR: Why 30 Million Solar Rooftops Should Be In the Next Relief Bill

Best, Yann