Survey Results, Installers. Installers are reporting that closed sales are down 25.1% from their weekly average in Q1, still operating at 74.9% close rates.

30%. of them are saying that some customers have canceled or postponed projects.

44.8%. say that building departments have closed or delayed inspections.

Homeowner’s Buying Sentiment. 35.7% waiting for things to calm down while 28.6% worried about the economy and can’t make the commitment and 17.9% proceeding with business as usual.

The Loan Market. There are no changes to the loan market, rates and underwriting standards have not adjusted, tracking this closely to see how it changes.

Market Sentiment. 48% are no longer in a position to sell because they sell door to door or via appointments and 45% will experience a cash crunch without new business coming in. 38% say that their existing backlog will continue to fund their operations while 29% will reduce their workforce.

Suppliers. 35% of installers are worried that suppliers, distributors and manufacturers will not be able to deliver product as expected or promised. 

• Greentech Media: Solar, Wind and Storage Industries Seek Relief in Coronavirus Stimulus Package
• Los Angeles Times: How power companies are keeping your lights on during the pandemic
• Utility Dive: PJM MOPR compliance plan allays renewable sector concerns of being shut out of capacity auctions
• PV-Tech : China solar exports fall over 57% month-on-month in February 2020
• Axios: Gulf between Asian central banks on climate rhetoric and action
• Solar Builder: Five key considerations of industrial solar leasing
• Wisconsin State Journal: Tony Evers appoints clean energy advocate Tyler Huebner to Public Service Commission

Opinion

• GreenBiz: How to make solar power work for all

Best, Yann

The Permit Problem. According to the SolarWakeup tracking survey, 44% of installers are seeing building department close or delay inspections due to COVID-19. It is understandable that the situation is happening and at the same time an opportune time to talk about how solar should be permitted. Solar permits should be automated and instant, we already have the software tools at our disposal that create the drawings installers need to follow in order to build code compliant solar. If the software were vetted by a building department or state regulator, as long as the installer followed the plans, they should be able to build the system right away. Inspectors could choose to video conference the inspection with the installer or spot check the system at a later date, if the installer fails to do it correctly they would be thrown off the instant permit system and risk losing their license. If there was ever a time to create a digital bridge between solar installers and AHJs, the time is now.

Solar Is An Essential Business. There is a reason that solar installers need to be able to keep working. While sales will transition to remote, phone and video calls, installations are safe to proceed without contamination risk. Imagine if this crisis was happening in a few months when the risks of wildfires start back up? Just yesterday there was a major earthquake in Salt Lake City. Solar installers across the Country are adding solar and storage that make homeowners self-reliant and eliminate the risk of power shutoffs for at risk population. It is crucial that solar continues to install safely while maintaining social distancing. In the Bay Area, most of the counties have put a shelter in place order in force that excludes essential businesses. For me, it is very clear that solar is and should continue to be able to work in order to allow the preparation for wildfire season to continue.

The Problem With The Data. Most of us are feeling a level of uneasiness that we have never felt before, I feel it too. With three kids at home, and the prospects of no school for the next 5 months, I don’t know what happens from here. Here is my biggest problem with all of this, we need bigger data. In this vast country of 300 million people we have 60,000 people tested and 8,700 positives. That’s a terrible data set to make decisions on, for our country, society and industry we need to make the right decision based on the right data. If it means we have to shut everything down for 30 days, so be it but let’s stop messing around without knowing the facts.

Thank You. The first SolarWakeup tracking survey was a success. The results will be published tomorrow and every Friday from here on out. On Sunday each week, you will receive a link to the next survey and I hope more of you decide to participate going forward. Knowing what is happening in the market will get us to a point where we can speak with data to politicians on how they can help us through this troubled time. More to come. 

• PV-Magazine: Forget toilet paper, consumers are panic buying solar PV
• New York Times: He Set Up a Big Solar Farm. His Neighbors Hated It.
• PV-Tech: PV Tech’s COVID-19 tracker
• Axios: Oil plunges and industry pain spreads
• Greentech Media: Solar Dominates Wind in New York’s Latest Renewable Procurement
• Los Angeles Times: California Climate Change Move Faster
• Rocky Mountain Institute: Electric Vehicles Are the Next Dominant Class of Renewable Energy Buyers
• Utility Dive: Brookfield to acquire rest of Terraform Power, creating 36 GW, $50B renewable energy giant

Opinion

• GreenBiz: Why do large asset managers vote against most climate-related shareholder proposals?

Best, Yann

One Last Chance. Here is the link to this week’s tracker. This survey gives us the baseline, thank you for everyone that already filled it out. At noon today, the survey will close. Responders will get a preview via email tomorrow.

2019 Year In Review. Hard to think about 2019, but it was a record year for distributed generation across the County. Solar grew 23% from 2018 even in the face of tariffs. Residential solar had an impressive 2.8GW and would have absolutely crushed the 3GW in 2020 and may still do so. Community solar, waiting for its major growth year still achieved 500MW in 2019. There is a note in today’s rundown that talks about retail buyers being a key demo in solar, this is what will grow the community solar segment as well. Remember that non-residential includes C&I as well as community solar.

SEIA Comments On Corona. The forecast in the 2019 year in review makes a disclaimer that it does not include any impact by corona. In a separate statement, SEIA said that the 47% growth forecasted will be ratcheted in the coming months as we know the impact. Abby Hopper says  it will be a “pretty significant crisis in the solar industry in addition to a significant crisis in the overall economy.”

Is Solar Contrarian? GTM found a gem in the Q4 Sunrun earnings call. On the call CEO Lynn Jurich said that solar may work better in an economic downturn and I agree with her rationale. Assuming the cost of capital, underwriting and liquidity remain in the market and competitive, solar will be able to continue. The only counterpoint, which was hard to predict, is that solar companies that overly rely on selling face to face will have difficulties and need to adjust to the short term changes.

Utility Shutoffs. Almost unanimously, utilities will suspend cutting offer power for non-payment during corona.

• Reuters: Coronavirus creating solar industry ‘crisis’ – U.S. trade group
• Greentech Media: Can Rooftop Solar Thrive in an Economic Downturn?
• PV-Tech: COVID-19 clouds build over US solar after upbeat 2019
• GreenBiz: Coronavirus dampens 2020 outlook for clean energy and electric vehicles
• Grist: Utilities face pressure to stop shutting off services amid coronavirus pandemic
• PV-Magazine: SunPower to sell 11 MW of capacity in New England’s grid
• Utility Dive: Retail buyers may be key to clean energy procurement in ISO-NE, PJM, NYISO – Report
• Axios: The fallout from oil’s collapse 

Opinion

• Los Angeles Times: Lithium startup backed by Bill Gates seeks a breakthrough at the Salton Sea

Best, Yann

Testing The Impact. The only way we can understand the depth and duration of the coronavirus impact on the solar market is to track the four markers: deals signed, loans closed, permits approved and projects installed. Through the SolarWakeup survey tracker and partnerships with key analytics firms, we will guide you through this. While I can deliver the data, I can’t make it up and your participation is key. We need the collective us to share information so that the data becomes most useful. The goal is to deliver weekly analytics in a way that helps you adjust your metrics. For example, when you have the first good week after the lull, is it just you or the entire market? If you see others are also doing better, you will feel more inclined to get back at it at full strength. That’s the goal, isolate quickly and then get back after it. Here is the link to this week’s tracker

Cities Shelter In Place. You may have heard that cities in and around San Francisco have a public health order to shelter in place. The headline is underpinned by details that are important to the solar industry. Let me preface with, if you can do your job from home, please do so for as long as you can. There is an exclusion for two purposes, essential businesses and minimum business operations for which necessary employees can continue working while maintaining safe distances to stop the spread. For Bay Area solar installers with a backlog of solar plus storage systems, it is up to you to determine the importance you play in advance of the wildfire season. My point is that solar will not stop because the Bay Area is working from home, our work is essential to the future of this Country because while corona may be the now problem, climate change remains as important as ever.

Bullish On Solar. Before the market opens today, there looks to be a nice bounce after yesterday’s massive drop. Losing over 12% and reaching the all-time high on the VIX yesterday, I see positive signs on the horizon after we get through some difficult times. The solar names have been beaten down, some of them trading at 50% of the price of a few weeks ago. Here’s the question you want to ask yourself; 5 years from now, will there be more solar installed on homes, buildings and farmland or less? If you agree with me, get ready to get invested because I’m bullish on solar.

Bailouts Are Coming. The airline trade association is asking for $25billion in grants and $25billion in zero interest loans while the casinos are also in DC ringing the bell. Their direct line to the White House prompted a Trump tweet, “The United States will be powerfully supporting those industries, like Airlines and others, that are particularly affected by the Chinese Virus. We will be stronger than ever before!” I’ve got some asks to attach to the bill.

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• San Francisco Chronicle: Bay Area orders ‘shelter in place,’ only essential businesses open in 6 counties
• Axios: Clearing up the Biden-Bernie fracking tussle at the debate
• Grist: Solar power has been growing for decades. Then coronavirus rocked the market.
• PV-Magazine: BNEF lowers 2020 global PV outlook due to coronavirus concerns
• PV-Tech: IEA – Don’t let COVID-19 distract from ‘historic opportunity’ of energy transition
• Greentech Media: Spanish Energy Sector Counts Blessings in Coronavirus Crisis
• Utility Dive: Florida, Utah, Washington approve bills to boost EVs, including $50M Rocky Mountain Power charging plan

Opinion

• GreenBiz: COVID-19 and climate change – A healthy dose of reality

Best, Yann