Tag Archives: Daily Rundown

This is your SolarWakeup for August 17th, 2020

Why This One Matters. Today, I’ll give you the headlines of the weekend and why this election matters. First the politics. I don’t think climate change should be a partisan item, I wish that Americans could be republicans and care about climate change policies even if the policies differ from democrats. Over the past decade we’ve seen a congress that refutes climate science, renewable energy, energy efficiency and free market competition in energy production/delivery. That’s why I’m involved with Clean Energy for Biden because you will see the news over the weekend make it unavoidable, you will see rare forms of natural disasters and even learn about new ones perhaps. So join me on Thursday for a CE4B event with Congressman/Former Florida Governor Charlie Crist. I’ll be talking with him on how to tackle this issue facing us all.

The Plan. Tomorrow I will outline how the Biden/Harris administration should focus on climate change in the first 100 days and what they can do right away.

First Time In 20 Years. 2 times in as many days, the California ISO called for a stage 3 emergency and rolling blackouts. Even when the ISO lifted the emergency, PG&E continued its blackouts without notifying critical infrastructure that led to sewage entering drinking supply. High temperatures and loss of 1,500MW of central generation led to grid instability causing the emergency. The sad part is that this is avoidable and the entire regulatory complex is at fault for being captured by the utilities. As I tweeted this weekend, it’s beyond comprehension how PG&E is exactly where it was before the bankruptcy and nothing has change. This is avoidable and doesn’t require anything to get started. CAISO could contract with every homeowner that has energy storage to create a massive virtual power plant. Utilities could expand the program with OhmConnect and add a gigawatt of demand response. The governor could call for rapid solar expansion and require instant permitting across the State for residential solar plus storage, it’s on his desk as we speak. The solutions are here, we need to unwrap ourselves from this obsession we have that only PG&E and SCE can solve this problem.

Flee To Florida? Hurricane Isaias is what Floridians would call an elongated thunderstorm, Key West would party through the storm in non-COVID times. Meanwhile the infrastructure in New York and New Jersey is showing its weakness once again when it comes to hurricanes. I’ve spoken to a dozen folks from NY/NJ/CT area in the past week and they all had extended power outages. I guess it’s time to flee to Florida for when hurricanes come around. Our concrete homes, power poles and generators (solar included) will keep you running.

It’s Called A Derecho. California outages, wild fires and hurricanes aren’t the worst natural disaster in America this week. Iowa experience a derecho, a 120mph land hurricane that arrives with almost no notice. Iowans are out of power, some counties lost 80% of power and crops are destroyed across the State. Iowa is the center of attention for politics every four years and unfortunately for Iowans, the media is already gone and is not covering this. 14 million acres of crops are damaged, this will end up being experienced by all Americans when shortages reach supply chain.

For The History Books. The ice sheet in Greenland is melted beyond the point of no return. Basically more water sits on top of the ice sheet than what could melt and therefore will result in the ice sheet losing mass continuously. Our kids will read about our actions about the elusive ice sheet that has caused measurable changes in the gravitational field in Greenland today. Instead our kids will live with the measurable increase in water levels caused by the melt.

Fire Tornadoes. For good measure, a firenado.

Data Nerds. My latest podcast on data in imagery with Tim Rochman from EagleView Technologies. Catch it on your podcast app and leave us a 5 star rating. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for August 14th, 2020

2020 Forecasting. Wood Mackenzie analysts are doubling down on their 2020 revised forecast, saying that cash deals will be down 41%, leases down 21% and loans down by 23%. This downturn would continue through 2021. Here’s the problem with that forecast. Every major public company is telling a different story, private solar installers are reporting months well above pre-COVID and loan companies said that May was the best month in history, June beat May and July beat June. Those data points don’t compute with a down year. While we were hoping for a 25% YoY growth year, 2020 will still be bigger than 2019. I invite the analysts to join our next residential market conference call scheduled for September 1st to hear some great data points.

The Loan Market. The side point of the research spotlight is the state of the loan market. Loans are rapidly increasing in overall financings and I’d like to hear your thoughts on solar loan companies. There is a diverse set of companies offering the product so reply to this email and tell me what makes you pick your loan partner. It’s not the transparent market but maybe SolarWakeup’s mission of shining the light could be helpful.

Utilities Play EV Infra. Ten years ago I told a major IOU CEO that I thought he should ask regulators for the approval to build 10,000 charging stations across their service territory. Maybe that was a bit early but I wanted the utility to front run the demand and removing the biggest hesitation factor for consumers, where do they charge. It would have also locked up the access for the sites and maybe one day EV charging companies end up buying the land rights from gas stations. Private companies now lead the EV charging network and I can’t wait to see how the compete, partner, or rate base discussion goes.

Coal To Storage Transition. Vistra, the IPP know for fossil generation, continues to diversify into battery generation. It already announced a massive storage site in Texas and previous two projects at the former Moss Landing coal plant. Now it received approvals for a 4 hour 1,500MW site near their natural gas plant, which it says it will build once the market data allows for it.

Solar Module Waste. Hard to believe that we are at the point where the market for re/upcycling of solar modules is upon us. For me it was always a problem for another day so educate me on options available or best practices on thoughts for what can be done. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for August 13th, 2020

SPI Goes All Virtual. SPI was pushing to have some portion of the market meet in person until just a few days ago, trying to convince exhibitors to keep their booth space and send folks. The lingering cases, positivity rate and hospitalization surround this pandemic made their best attempts fall short. Most of us were simply unwilling to get on a plane and visit Vegas. I know that many of us can use a few days in Vegas but it will not be. The lack of SPI creates a massive hole in the SEIA budget, nearly $10million of profits from the trade shows goes into the SEIA annual budget to fund solar advocacy and there isn’t a way to make that up. Thus far, PPP funding is not allowed to flow to trade associations.

The Digital OS. Like most of you, SPI will also go virtual. We are nearly 6 months into the pandemic so it’s a good time to look at your digital pivot. What changes did you make, processes adapted in order to meet the new normal? We can now imagine and realize a touchless customer journey except for the ineptitude that most building departments have shown in using email and FaceTime to do their jobs. Some AHJs have simply delayed their processes further hindering economic recovery. Take an hour this week and meet with your leadership team to asses the digital systems you put in place, happy to write more about this if questions arise.

Through, Not Past. Moments ago I had a realization about 2020 and the pandemic. Since the start we’ve been talking about it as a temporary issue facing society and the solar market. It would come and then cases would drop enough for things to go back to normal. Instead we now realize that we are living alongside the virus through 2020 and potentially longer. Our work will adapt to it as well, every company is making masks at this point, I’ve been creating a collection of solar masks at my home with East Bay Community Energy and Utility API coming in early.

SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group. Your competition is joining the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group, transparent pricing powered by the market. The market is maturing and this is a big part. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for August 12th, 2020

It’s Kamala. The VP pick is out and as predicted here last week, Senator Harris is joining the Biden ticket. The legislative headline right now is her environmental justice bill with AOC that is right down the fairway of solar advocates and our industries broader mission to do good. This opens the Senate seat in California and an interesting pick (though many say unlikely) is Kevin de Leon, former Senate Pro Tem and 100% RPS advocate. The Biden Harris ticket definitely sends a message to our industry that they view environmental issues as top of the to do list and our work is to hold them to it. That being said, you need to be elected before you can govern, which includes raising money. On behalf of the SolarWakeup family, you can show your support to the campaign here. This isn’t an election to sit out.

Time Of Big Modules. SNEC took place in China and PV-Tech visited the show. The story coming from the show is the increase in scale of modules, some doubling the standard 60cell modules in use in the market today. 500w, 600w, and even 700watt modules were exhibited as well as the expansion to 78 cells.

Everywhere You Land. Every person in solar has looked at the giant roofs without solar when they land at major airports, naked roofs. These naked roofs are a major dilemma for solar pros because putting solar on them is much harder than you think. Energy consumption is generally lower than potential output, tenants have leases less than the life of the solar plant, energy rates are low and many are owned by SPV holdcos. The market development needed to target this market is to view these roofs as land where the plant does not typically serve the consumer below. So we can talk about the 145GW market potential but reality is more complicated than technical potential.

Free Solar For Everyone. The lead generation ads are largely annoying, my friends send me the latest government program guaranteeing free solar all the time. But reality and lead gen is getting closer together with the latest loan product from Mosaic that is no payment for 12 months, not much different from other consumer products. Here is something you wouldn’t see though, the loan is provided by Webbank (per press release) which is owned by Steel Partners, which also owns roofing/solar player OMG. There is no market impact of that relationship but I thought it was interesting that a industrial public holding company is in solar with two portfolio companies and most executives wouldn’t even realize it.

Duke Earning Call, Tweet. Goldman Sachs analyst asked Duke executives a solar question, hat tip to Ben Inskeep for catching this tweet.

Tweet Of The Day. From Dave Pomerantz, it involves utilities, CEOs, private jets and safety.

Buyer’s Group. Your competition is joining the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group, ask them if you don’t believe me. The market is maturing and this is a big part. 

Opinion

Best, Yann