This is your SolarWakeup for June 22nd, 2020

SolarWakeup 3.0. For those of you that have been following SolarWakeup for sometime know that my work tends to come in cycles given the turnaround/growth work that I focus on. In between, I focus on two things. First is the next big leap for SolarWakeup and the second is consulting which leads me to create the thesis for my next full time work. Last time, SolarWakeup 2.0 was the expansion of the daily coverage to more than 1 paragraph which recapped the main stories with an addition of my take on the story. SolarWakeup 3.0 will do even more for the solar market and will launch next week. Thanks to many of you for supporting and reading all these years.

Texas And Florida. News broke late last week including some Twitter aviation sleuths showing that Elon Musk and Tesla board members were eyeing a site outside of Austin for the next factory. This factory would be used for the Cybertruck and east coast deliveries of the Model Y. The company has secured a 2,100 acre site for the plant and would continue a trend to move from California to the Austin region, East Bay folks will tell you that it’s the most commonly discussed destination. The other is Miami, many VCs have setup shop in Miami for the beaches, weather and no state income tax. Florida makes an awful logistics center for cars though.

Monopoly Treatment. Already a convicted felon for a gas explosion, PG&E was found guilty of manslaughter many times over last week. This was while the company was on probation for the previous felony and in bankruptcy. To recap, the credit profile has a recent BK and two felonies. If that was a solar off taker or homeowner, you wouldn’t be able to approve them for a $20k loan let alone the responsibility of serving millions of Californians. Capitalism doesn’t work if there is no repercussion for bad behavior, how the company expands on the monopoly or keeps it is hard to understand.

A Full Wrap For Homes. Credit given to where it is due, Panasonic has understood that homeowners want the comfort of a warranty when they install solar. Unfortunately, when solar is installed on a home more than the panels can cause issues, like a leak from bad mounting or faulty inverter. Panasonic now offers a complete warranty that includes paying for labor to fix anything that goes wrong on the system including inverter and mounting. The partnership includes Enphase and Unirac to complete the wrap.

Think Of Roof Integrated. GAF Energy has been the lone company to tackle roof integrated solar alongside Tesla’s solar roof. Now SunPower is getting into the game with a deal that uses the OneRoof technology with KB Home. I’ll be interested to see how this plays out 10 years from now. 

Your House, Your Battery. What companies are out here targeting homeowners that already have solar and a battery to aggregate them for a virtual power plant or other revenue opportunities? I want to talk to them.

Bill Walton And Friends. In a fun event on this Wednesday, join me and basketball and broadcasting sensation Bill Walton at the virtual PAC-12 Sustainability Conference. This is a free event and if you’ve never seen Bill talk about solar, it’s a huge treat. Pass along the registration link to anyone that may want to join you. Don’t you think that every PAC-12 school should be 100% solar?

Presented by Adani Green Energy. Adani is a fully integrated renewables company, from solar cell and module manufacturing to ownership and operation. The company has a top global operating and contracted pipeline of over 14 GW. Adani is the recipient of the largest solar award ever of 8 GW, which includes a single site project of 2 GW – tied for the world’s largest. No one knows mega-scale projects like Adani. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for June 19th, 2020

Friday Rundown. What a week! It started off with a ridiculous 45 hour drive for me and a never ending jet lag but here we are another week down. We now have 10 days left in the worst, strangest and seemingly longest quarter in my time in solar. Here we go

From Alabama’s Reporting. As the regulators approve a gas plant but not solar, reporters write. “The original expansion proposal included five 80-megawatt solar projects paired with battery storage banks that could be used after dark when the panels would not normally provide power. There are limitations, however. The batteries for the project would last about two hours before needing to be recharged by the sun. That might not be long enough during a cold winter morning if the sun wasn’t shining.”

EPA Forgot Its Second Letter. Toxic water? Don’t worry about it.

Equality, Diversity, Solar’s Work Begins. What are the actions and changes you’ve embarked on to make your business more diverse?

Repowering and Developing Big Solar. It’s been a few years since I focused on large scale development and I’ve lost touch with who is doing what. As wind gets into the repowering of existing farms, there will be the same work in solar. We are also seeing early stage development getting much larger in scale and reaching new geographies. This work is no longer limited to large companies, individual developers are reaching key interconnection milestones as well. Not too many teams have the financial wherewithal to fund development and construction but I expect to see more of you raising your hands for these 100MW opportunities.

Bill Walton And Friends. In a fun event on June 24th, join me, Bill Walton and his friends at the virtual PAC-12 Sustainability Conference. This is a free event and if you’ve never seen Bill talk about solar, it’s a huge treat. Pass along the registration link to anyone that may want to join you.

Presented by Adani Green Energy. Adani is a fully integrated renewables company, from solar cell and module manufacturing to ownership and operation. The company has a top global operating and contracted pipeline of over 14 GW. Adani is the recipient of the largest solar award ever of 8 GW, which includes a single site project of 2 GW – tied for the world’s largest. No one knows mega-scale projects like Adani.

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for June 18th, 2020

The DG Power Plants. This week I interviewed the CEO of East Bay Community Energy, Nick Chaset, to talk about local resource adequacy and distributed virtual power plants. In the news yesterday was a duo of residential aggregated solar plus storage systems that make up a virtual power plant, both with Sunrun. The first with SCE in California and the other on the east coast. These projects are a three party arrangement between the installer/investor (Sunrun), the site host (homeowner) and the utility. In most cases, the management of the system is aligned between what is best for the homeowner and what the utility needs, though a divergence of benefits in that relationship would be interesting to play out. For the homeowner it is a version of revenue stacking, an additional benefit for installing a more expensive system. For the installer, it’s more revenue upfront, an ongoing management relationship and a complexity that will drive stickiness. For utilities, it’s demand response and lower infrastructure costs for the overall system. I like this space and can’t wait to see others play in it.

$16 Trillion. Goldman Sachs has a new report about the value of the renewables space and it does not disappoint. They are talking about an economic investment opportunity of $16 Trillion dollars between now and 2030. The firm annualizes the opportunity at $1 – $2 Trillion per year and job creation of up to 20 million over the next decade.

Cleantech Shark Tank. Let’s say it with great enthusiasm. Cleantech VC is cool again. I can only name two VCs that have been doing it since before I got into solar 15 years ago but I welcome all of the new participants. The convergence of folks that have done VC at the top of their game that now merge their work with climate based investing is incredibly exciting to me. So here’s how I want you to think about it, if you are a startup or know a startup, send them my way. I want to highlight and interview them so that the word spreads that our solar community has the next unicorn in it. Just look at the first two paragraphs and tell me that this isn’t possible!

Big Impact From Big EV Fleets. Lyft is promising 100% of their cars will be EVs by the end of the decade and a report comes out about California’s clean truck rule which will save billions. I promise you, if Joe Biden wins the election then I hope he appoints Mary Nichols as Secretary of Transportation. 

Bill Walton And Friends. In a fun event on June 24th, join me, Bill Walton and his friends at the virtual PAC-12 Sustainability Conference. This is a free event and if you’ve never seen Bill talk about solar, it’s a huge treat. Pass along the registration link to anyone that may want to join you.

Presented by Adani Green Energy. Adani is a fully integrated renewables company, from solar cell and module manufacturing to ownership and operation. The company has a top global operating and contracted pipeline of over 14 GW. Adani is the recipient of the largest solar award ever of 8 GW, which includes a single site project of 2 GW – tied for the world’s largest. No one knows mega-scale projects like Adani. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for June 17th, 2020

2020 Solar Market. The past 10 weeks has put me on an emotional roller coaster as it pertains to the solar market. It was March 17th when shelter in place was announced in California and I texted an installer, next week you will have zero sales, what are you going to do? That was when I posted the first survey to see how many weeks solar would be at zero sales. Thankfully we never got to zero and now some installers are back above the sales numbers from early March. Non-residential installers also showed that this would be a blip and the survey for May will show the start of a split in solar. Those that are rebounding and those that couldn’t handle it. I’ll be covering the May results on a call tomorrow at 10am EST. RSVP for that call here free of charge.

May Survey. Did you fill out your response for May Today is the last day. You can see the full results of previous surveys here

Not All Rebounds Are Same. PetersenDean has filed for bankruptcy protection according to PV-Magazine reporting and is only quoting roofing projects right now. It appears that the company will blame COVID for the woes but I expect more about this story to come out. There are many installers in far less profitable markets that are rebounding nicely and adapting to the virtual environment.

Get The Scale. First it was the cost of solar, then it was a lack of scale. Now pension funds not only see the returns they want, they also see the massive scale that makes deploying real dollars feasible including with great currency diversification for truly big funds. Danish fund, CIP, is targeting $15billion in investments.

What To Make Of BP? The company is writing down the value of some assets by a total of over $17billion dollars and is increasing the carbon cost for its investment planning to $100 per ton in 2030. That means that fossil projects will have to overcome significant additionality for projects that are not that far away in the world of a BP. The inverse is also true, renewable energy projects will become significantly better investments with such a carbon price included and you could see the company leveraging its development, land rights and offshore infrastructure for such projects.

Solar Plus Storage. Not for nothing but Vectren, the utility company HQed in Indiana is including 1GW of solar and storage in their IRP. I’m sure that Mike Pence will be lauding their foresight any minute now.

Presented by Adani Green Energy. Adani is a fully integrated renewables company, from solar cell and module manufacturing to ownership and operation. The company has a top global operating and contracted pipeline of over 14 GW. Adani is the recipient of the largest solar award ever of 8 GW, which includes a single site project of 2 GW – tied for the world’s largest. No one knows mega-scale projects like Adani. 

Opinion

Best, Yann