This is your SolarWakeup for December 15th, 2016
Join me, Mr. Musk. Elon Musk has joined the President’s Strategic and Policy Forum, chaired by Blackson CEO Stephen Schwarzman. This comes after the tech meeting with President Elect Trump that included most of the who’s who from Silicon Valley. Musk runs companies that have taken State help and have contracts with the Federal government. It would have been ill-advised to draw the Twire (Twitter Ire) of the President Elect.
In Texas we see our future. Though intellectually it lacks some stimulation, some pundits were pointing out today that Rick Perry was somewhat open minded on renewables. Essentially leaving the ERCOT market to figure itself out and in some cases helping the wind sector get set up. Many utility CEOs got their internal start in wind or are deploying billions into the segment. Solar is also doing well with the open market approach in Texas, in all segments, so let’s have some faith.
Reaction to the data. As the press covered the positive high level results from Q3, they did dig into some of the issues we highlighted yesterday. SEIA’s Interim President, Tom Kimbis, came out with some positivity and reasons why there may have been a blip in residential. Unrelatedly, I continue to be really impressed with the work that Tom is doing at SEIA. He jumped into the role and has given SEIA a voice and brand it has not had before. I don’t know if he will be selected as the next CEO on a full time basis but he’s definitely giving the search group a lot of reasons to pick him.
EIA-EI-O, no we did it again, wrong. GTM took a single paragraph to absolutely demolish the data on 3rd party solar from the EIA. And it didn’t even require fancy analytics or research, just some reading. It goes to the point that EIA not only collects data poorly, it has trouble publishing data that can be considered reliable. We need EIA data to be available for our businesses in a way that it can be referenced, so that investments follow accurate market conditions.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 14th, 2016
Subscribe on iTunes! EnergyWakeup is now available on iTunes and Stitcher radio, so no matter what your podcast app of choice is we are available for you. This week is shaping up to have some great commentary.
Should we be worried? Q3 2016 was the biggest quarter for solar ever. It was always going to be because this was the safe placed in service quarter before ITC sunset. The issue is in the details because residential had the first quarter over quarter since 2014 and it doesn’t appear to be small. Interconnection data from CA looks less than appealing but a positive is that Q3 numbers from the big 3 didn’t show the slowdown in their numbers but we should keep our eyes on this.
We have a Secretary of Energy. Former Governor Perry will be the next Secretary of Energy as it is doubtful that the Senate would fail to confirm him. Perry is famous for thinking or rather forgetting the name of the Department of Energy, renaming it instead ‘Department of OOPS'. He has a college degree in animal science and will be overseeing the nuclear arsenal of the United States, weapons, waste and all that comes with it.
Not so fast Thomas Pyle. The Department of Energy has responded to the Trump transition team and they will not be giving individual names of staffers. The transition team had requested the names of staffers that worked on climate change issues. DOE will be sending otherwise public information in the request for transition planning, most interesting in the request was on how nuclear power plants could be saved.
Mr. Interior from Montana. I don’t know much about Ryan Zinke, the only congressman from Montana who will be the next Secretary of Interior. A couple of thoughts. This is much better than Harold Hamm, Sarah Palin or Mary Fallin. Zinke had a 20+ year career in the Navy Seals including Seal Team Six before entering politics. He stood up against the GOP platform when they wanted to advocate for moving land from Federal to State control.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 13th, 2016
What did you think? Bryan and I want to hear from you.What did you think after listening to the episode of EnergyWakeup ? As we clean up some of the technical items, we want to know what you want to hear us discuss next.
Elon is going to see Trump. The President-Elect has invited tech leaders to visit with him. Invited guests include Mark Zuckerberg, Tim Cook, and Larry Page. It was not clear earlier if Musk would accept but reports say that he will be in attendance. This is likely a way to bring the tech leaders into the ‘circle’ and push out potential criticism. Remember our lesson from last week when Gore and DiCaprio went to get some coffee at Trump Tower.
Obama gets a new office. I’ve actually been in the WWF building in DC where Obama is leasing office space for when he returns to civilian life early next year. Since we are in the business of reading into things that could be nothing (see above), let’s make a SolarWakeup prediction. Bill Gates, alongside other billionaires and democratic philanthropists, announce a massing clean energy fund over the weekend. Yesterday Obama signs a lease at WWF and has been saying that venture capital is of interest to him. Maybe a new Partner is coming to Breakthrough Energy Ventures? I sure hope so.
Coming to America. Besides being a great movie, the money is also coming. An Australian firm is taking a bite out of the US solar market and buying 135MW from SunPower after having bought 90MW earlier. For SunPower, this is a departure from the utilization of 8point3, the yieldco that was created with First Solar.
A power plant map. The University of Texas has a map that shows the potential LCOE of different power plants across America. A few points to take away. It is nearly impossible to build an economically viable coal plant in America. Nuclear power plants needs to reduce their costs in order to be more viable, which we know thanks to the subsidies they have gotten from NY and IL. One solution would be the carbon tax, which would definitely help nuclear go further. But the renewables map expands so drastically in a carbon tax scenario that it is likely not to happen.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 12th, 2016
Introducing EnergyWakeup! The big day is here, the first episode of EnergyWakeup is now available for you to listen to. America is entering a difficult and confusing landscape, especially when it comes to energy policy. Hosted by Bryan Miller and myself, we take you behind the headlines on what is really going on. In the first episode we talk about the Trump transition, the witch hunt at the Department of Energy and what the nominees mean to our industry. At the end of the podcast we talk about the potential of Tillerson being Secretary of State. Please let us know your thoughts.
Quiet from Gore and DiCaprio. Where is the comment from Al Gore and Leonardo DiCaprio? They met with Trump and his team early in the week but then get Scott Pruitt and Rex Tillerson which goes counter to what they requested. Why have they been so quiet? That is a question that should be answered because maybe something else was discussed at the meeting?
$150mm for Sunrun, Unicorns for the rest of us. Last week Sunrun closed an investment for $150 million of tax equity. A worthy announcement by itself but this money was different, better in fact. We spoke to Jonathan Silver to find out how he was able to convince a Fortune 500 company to invest a total of $400 million for solar tax equity. A direct investment from a corporate at that level, now that is exciting news for our sector.
At least it’s not communism. If you were an energy staffer tasked with working on the UN Climate Change policies, your name is going on a list. The Trump transition landing team went into the DOE this week and asked for the names of staffers involved. Not clear what they plan on doing with the list but I am sure that an early Christmas gift isn’t in the plans.
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Yann
Tax Equity Unicorns – New Fund Invests $150 million From A Fortune 500 To SunRun
Large tax equity announcements usually include US Bank, State Street, Goldman Sachs, or Bank of America and not a boutique advisory firm. These tax equity providers are syndicating pools of investments into the solar market. But it seems that things are changing with a new $150 million investment for a Sunrun fund by a new firm, Tax Equity Advisors (TEA). The biggest difference is that the capital is coming from an unnamed Fortune 500 corporation, making a direct investment into tax equity for solar. In other words, tax equity supply may have just gotten the early adopter, the unicorn that … Read More
EnergyWakeup – Episode 1 Sponsored by MMA Energy Capital
In our first Podcast, you’ll go behind the headlines to examine the Trump transition on energy and climate change. You’ll learn about a leaked internal memo laying out Trump’s step-by-step plan to reverse the 8 years of progress under President Obama. You’ll hear about a witch hunt Trump has launched at the Department of Energy for civil servants who work on climate issues. You’ll meet the key players who Trump has already appointed. And you’ll get a preview of the scariest potential appointment of all, which is about to become reality. It has been a historic week (for the worse) … Read More
These are the top 10 most read solar articles by your peers this week!
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The Top 10 is ranked by the number of SolarWakeup.com readers that clicked on the news article during the previous week. It is the poll of the most relevant solar news of the week as judged by your colleagues and competitors.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 9th, 2016
This is a first. Utility commissioners in South Dakota, desperate for some national attention apparently, are investigating the impacts of solar policies on their customer’s rates. Only problem is that the solar policies are in another State! You can’t make this stuff up even with the nuance that the project the regulators are worried about is owned by NextEra, one of the largest utilities in the Country.
Climate policy impact explained. From the business as usual scenario where we do nothing and roll every policy back to the goal of the Paris agreement. New York Times takes you through each policy to show you the environmental impact of each. These things are wonky and complicated but creating a visual representation is always a good idea for mainstream consumption.
More details, this on the Illinois market. We’ve covered the energy bill in Illinois before but now more time has gone into reading the fine print. First off, the bill was there to save the nuclear power plants, all other items were the price of admission to get that done. One of the biggest items is that the RPS has been fixed and it could create a 1.35GW solar market by 2020. From essentially zero, that is a really great place to aim towards.
EU crafts its energy future. With Europe on deck to lead the world towards accomplishing the Paris agreement, it has released the outline of the energy package. This is at the EU level which means that it is diversified to meet the political needs of member nations. Some Countries, like Germany, have already taken many policies in their own hands but others need to be pulled along.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 8th, 2016
Big Wakeup news coming soon. We’ve been working on a really important project given the fast moving, confusing and let’s just call it interesting political environment we are in. Stay tuned for more.
Thanks for the feedback! I hope we can do this more often, but you said it clearly that you enjoyed the summaries. I also understand the request to put the links for the stories directly in the email instead of having to come to the website. Obviously, the intent is to drive traffic to the site for metrics but that may no longer be the case. May consider doing a trial and having the article links right in the email.
It was a Trump directed headshake. Scott Pruitt will be the head of the EPA. The P used to stand for protection but will soon stand for pilfering. Scott Pruitt is the AG in Oklahoma and favorite attack dog on the EPA for the Koch Brothers. Ivanka stories, Gore meeting, those were all misdirection to this nonsense.
What does $250million buy? The Kochs may have been quiet during the Presidential election but they are far from quiet now. While the President Elect is Donald Trump, the transition is led by Governor Pence who has been close to the Kochs for years. Scott Pruitt and many more are direct contact of the Koch empire.
Out with the old. SunPower is making the cuts to ramp operational efficiency. The factory in the Philippines is one of the first factories the company opened and costly to operating. Cutting the factory will reduce capacity by 700MW and cut 2,500 jobs in the company, most in the Philippines. It will cost the company about $350 million, about 30% of which will be cash.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 7th, 2016
How’s the new format? It’s been a few weeks since I added the summaries to the top. Are they helpful or do they get into the way of the articles that you want to read? What else would you like this publication to give you to make it even better? Reply to this email and let me know.
Solar likes a free market now. PV-Magazine has a good summary on a leaked memo on Trump’s energy policies written by former Koch lobbyist Thomas Pyle. One of the points speaks to getting rid of all energy subsidies so that the market can discover the true price. I’m all in on that, it was actually one of the best negotiating points during the ITC extension because the ITC is almost nothing compared to the rest of the energy sector. This is a fool’s errand by the way, oil and gas will never, ever let Congress get rid of their subsidies. EVER!
A windy Google search. Google announced yesterday that it reached 100% renewable energy in 2017, meaning it will get all of its electric needs from renewable sources. For Google that means over 2.6GW of power but it may be a bit unclear on how that power correlates to energy use and timing. This is almost all wind with some solar mixed in. Someone needs to get into Facebook and make them do a solar project.
The risky cost of inaction. Bloomberg, Steyer and Paulson have been running a project called the Risky Business Project. Outlining the economic risk to the US by unmitigated climate change, the analysis has transitioned from the cost of inaction to the benefits of action. Their point is that the action is now incredibly valuable for financial entities, one that is not lost to many pension funds across the globe or pretty much anyone except for the US Congress.
Mr. Trump, meet Elon Musk. During the debate, Donald Trump brought up Solyndra which means he has been briefed on the loan guarantee program. He would know that it is returning over $5billion in profits to the taxpayers and had a loan to Tesla repaid ahead of schedule. The story we know well, but the agreement on the domestic manufacturing issue is understated. Musk’s companies have created over 35,000 jobs and used State level economic development deals to do it, both a staple of Trump’s policies. We did have Elon Musk as the leading candidate for DOE Secretary in our brief last month.
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Yann