This is your SolarWakeup for February 22nd, 2017

100% for the win. While the Federal government wants to regress, and fail at leading us all into the future, leave it to California’s legislators to take the reins. The legislature has filed a bill to bring the 50% RPS to 100%. It had failed in the past due to the oil lobby’s push against the increase of fuel efficiency standards but this time it looks very promising. Bryan and I spoke about this with Senator Wiener on EnergyWakeup.
Do it yourself. Across the globe there is a new trend that is changing the world in amazing ways. When the poorest among us are without energy, light or clean ways to cook, they are turning to solar energy. No longer having to wait for dirty coal plants or costly transmission, solar is bringing access to new opportunities.
Florida Inside Baseball. Spring training is just getting started but there is some great political inside baseball going on in Florida. The Governor and the Speaker of the House are engaging in a battle royale regarding corporate welfare. Specifically, this battle is about tourism marketing and economic development dollars. Keep in mind that this is republican infighting. So you can imagine the irony in watching FP&L rate basing 800MW of solar while keeping the market monopoly away from private sector competition. Nothing to see here! That’s why we keep the capitol in Tallahassee.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 21st, 2017

Solar on every roof, 80% RPS. Two bills that push the goal post in a direction we are not used to right now. Normally we are playing defense on kill NEM bills or attacks on solar markets across the Country. In this episode of EnergyWakeup we interviewed Senator Wiener of CA and Assemblyman Brooks of NV. Wiener is the sponsor of the solar on every new roof in CA bill and Brooks is the sponsor of the RPS bill in NV that brings it to 80%. Moving goal posts!
Oh Pruitt. He is a bad dude indeed. I don’t know why some people wake up and don’t have an ounce of decency but Pruitt is one of them. Rulemaking to stop CPP will start as expected. Let’s look at the flipside. Pruitt is a poster child for the environmental lobby, he has a history of hating the environment and using him politically should be straightforward. If you think the next three guys in line would have been any better, then guess again. Unless you want Myron Ebell?
Is nuclear going the way of coal? Over time my enthusiasm for nuclear has decreased and in the past few years have become convinced that we just don’t need new plants anymore. Water issues, safety issues, and capital logistics. With battery pricing and a shift to distributed generation do we really need new nuclear? I’m not as sure that no new plants will be built as I am that no new coal plants will be built but I think we are really close to this. Solar + storage wins out in my opinion.

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Yann

EnergyWakeup – Episode 5 – EnergyWakeup With Senator Wiener Of CA And Assemblyman Brooks Of NV

This episode is sponsored by NEI Energy Services, an EPC contractor delivering solar projects done right the first time across the East Coast. In this episode of EnergyWakeup, Bryan and I dig into the type of leadership that needs to happen on the left. Pushing the goal posts on energy policy agenda can be done. We look at two examples and speak with the sponsors of California SB 71, Senator Wiener (CA-11), and Nevada AB 206, Assemblyman Chris Brooks. Senator Wiener joined the California Senate after being a member of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. He is the sponsor of SB 71 which would put solar on the roof of every new home and commercial building in California. This is similar to an initiative that he passed in San Francisco. Senator Wiener gives us some insight about politics in California in a Trump World and the possibility of passing the 100% RPS that the California Senate is pushing for and how the oil lobby is trying hard to stop it. The legislative agenda for Senator Wiener can be found here. Making news in Nevada is Assemblyman Chris Brooks. Brooks comes from a career in energy and has worked in the solar industry for over 15 years. We talk about the current NEM proceedings and how it may impact his bill, AB 206. AB 206 is an RPS increase to 80% by 2040 with a 50% hurdle by 2030. Assemblyman Brooks also made some news in the interview letting us know that several solar bills will be put forth this session regarding the rooftop solar policies and net metering. With a democratic Assembly and Senate, he does see the need to work with the Governor’s office to solve this and thinks it will be possible with a moderate Governor Sandoval. In the biggest news, he does make a prediction about the rooftop solar industry in Nevada during the show that everyone will want to hear. Follow the legislation and other solar bills in Nevada’s bill tracker. Find the episode on SolarWakeup.com, iTunes, SoundCloud and Stitcher radio. Please subscribe and share with your friends how much EnergyWakeup is helping you! [soundcloud url="https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/308425509" params="color=ff5500&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=false&visual=false&show_playcount=false&show_user=true&show_reposts=false" width="100%" height="166" iframe="true" /]

These are the top 10 most read solar articles by your peers this week!

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 17th, 2017

I supportish Solar. This Governor’s letter about a carbon tax is utter nonsense. Yes, it makes everyone feel good and fluffy inside that maybe the Country is unifying around saving the polar bears and solar will be on every house. That’s not how politics works. The NRA spends barely any money compared to their industry’s profits, what they do is activate a million phone calls and swarm a legislator if they step out of line. Solar could have the same exact impact, our associations should have a phone and email list in the 10’s of millions that activate when called upon. Want to change the law? Make it political. How do you think solar won all of those net metering battles before we started losing?
Want to get the word out? You can sponsor this newsletter and the EnergyWakeup podcast starting Q2 of this year. If you are looking for a great way to reach the top audience in solar, this is it.
California is flat. You saw it here first several months ago. Residential data in California doesn’t look pretty, new interconnect apps are down and now installers have to transition to NEM 2.0. With more on the grid, you are going to see slowing growth rates which makes sense but doesn’t bode well for the public companies. Arizona, Nevada and Hawaii are basically closed as markets and they were leading the pack behind California. I’m not saying it’s doomsday but OneRoof, Verengo and NRG Home Solar are all out of the residential market. If I am selling into the residential supply chain, I would figure out my plan B quickly because cheap Chinese goods are coming for any margin that may still exist.
Time to buy? Last week I said it would make sense for First Solar and SunPower to join forces. Yes, Buffett says that two desperate companies don’t make a profitable bigger one but I think we can look behind the curtain here. First Solar has a strong balance sheet and remains quite competitive in the utility scale business. Governments and utilities are not going to stop their solar farm build out and Series 6 modules are pretty impressive albeit the write down the company has to take to skip Series 5. First Solar could be a buyer here, the SunPower technology has a strong footprint in the residential sector that is growing, cash and loan deals, with the independent contractor base they have built for the past decade. With a market cap under a billion, the technology is becoming intriguing as an acquisition target.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 16th, 2017

Political Strategy. We discussed this on EnergyWakeup, that the solar policy teams and politicians that support solar don’t push the envelope hard enough. It doesn’t mean that you have to get that ideal outcome on day one, but it makes the forward progress seem like a negotiated settlement. It’s crucial that with the public support the industry gets, that we help politicians file bills that go above and beyond today’s standards.

Today’s Newsletter is sponsored by Conductive Capital, a distributed generation platform with tax efficient capital looking to acquire your projects.

Tax reform. I asked Conor McKenna from CohnReznick this exact question because tax reform can throw a solar model sideways for tax equity investors. This should impact ITC except reducing future demand for the credits. The main cause of discomfort is the cash value of the depreciation if the tax rates are reduced. Keep watching this space, Speaker Ryan says that tax reform is going to be taken up late spring and summer of this Congressional session.

The Path for Utilities. Who knew? It would take Kansas City Power & Light is putting in 1,000 EV charging stations across its service area. Kansas regulators declined the request to ratebase the $20million investment and Missouri has yet to rule but the utility appears to move forward regardless. This is a smart use of shareholder capital because they already have the credit and collection mechanism to charge users for the energy and growing sales will mean more ratebase investments for power plants or infrastructure once everyone drives an EV.

Sponsor the next newsletter. You can now sponsor the newsletter with in line text. Get in touch with the solar industry through the newsletter that everyone reads.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 15th, 2017

2016, What a year! Congrats to everyone for a stunning achievement. We blew by 10GW and ended the year with over 14.6GW of total capacity.
The Florida Way. After a constitutional amendment passes in Florida, it shall not immediately be so. The legislature has to pass an implementation bill outlining how it becomes law. Amendment 4 was the commercial property tax exemption that was voted on overwhelmingly by the voters and now a bill is starting to move. The legislature starts in March and goes for 60 days. The only required bill that Florida legislators have to pass is the budget, expected to top $80bb this year but don’t miss the fireworks because there is some infighting already.
Iowa! Wouldn’t it be great if solar becomes a thing in Iowa? The first in the nation State with solar policy to campaign on? It’s worth the fight for the solar industry just for that in my opinion.
NRG Activists. No, not the type you saw on TV campaigning against coal plants. This time you have activist investors getting themselves on the board. I find it peculiar that NRG touts its greenness, of which they have stuff to talk about, when they need to deploy capital with good returns. But when it comes to blaming the issues the company has, it somehow always goes back to David Crane and his ‘crazy’ ideas about electric vehicles and solar panels. I’d like Mauricio to stand up and explain that the green NRG makes NRG money!

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 14th, 2017

Time for Corporations to lead. I’ve been a vocal advocate for the disaggregation of solar production and solar consumption. Community solar does a lot of that but always relies on the regulatory body to ensure the rules don’t change. Corporate offtakers through financial transactions like contracts for difference or energy hedges. Getting the markets to drive these segment is crucial to its longevity and investments, because companies making deals to make money is the best subsidy there is.
Digging deep on tax equity. Tax equity is the cheapest and most expensive money at the same time. It requires complicated structuring that takes advisors and cash from the sponsor. Without the ITC our industry would be suffering through a bad time right now so when I saw the announcement that SolarReserve was able to get $78million for a concentrating solar plant with molten salt storage, I was intrigued. Listen to my conversation with the financial advisor on the deal, CohnReznick, to hear about the complexities and how it got done.
20 Governors. Have sent a letter to the President urging to continue on a path for more solar and wind. One interesting mention is the value generated for land owners from rent for those power plants. Let’s watch this space and see where it goes.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 13th, 2017

Turn the LePage. There is a serious problem in Government when executives have a problem with not having a dictatorship. Study after study shows that net metering is the best policy when it comes to merging fair with simple. Most States would have to create a time of use structure that ends up more financially attractive to solar customers if they really looked at the value of solar. LePage calling for the resignations of the regulators is the least crazy thing the Governor has done but good grief it’s time for him to go.
Spectators sit on the sidelines. Arizona looks like a mess to me. Solar doesn’t lose much but ahead of crucial votes that kill markets, the policy teams were pitching and organizing hard until a year ago. Now there are nothing but crickets. No marches, no pickets and no news stories. Just bad decisions. I’m tired of hearing that solar needs to be a market player and negotiate common ground, when was the last time that the NRA gave up so easily or negotiated at all?
Tariffs don’t work. Sad to see people lose their jobs around the world at SolarWorld. Not sad to see Qatari backed Asbeck lose, over and over again.
Wonk out. How does NYC get its electricity? Worth a read

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Yann

EnergyWakeup – Episode 4 – Interview With Conor McKenna From CohnReznick Capital Markets

This episode is sponsored by Conductive Capital, a distributed generation platform with tax efficient capital. In this episode we speak with Conor McKenna, Managing Director at CohnReznick Capital Market Securities. Conor advised a $78 million tax equity investment for the Crescent Dunes Solar Project by SolarReserve. The innovation here is that the Crescent Dunes solar project uses molten salt energy storage technology from the SolarReserve concentrating solar tower site. Conor gives us some details on the deal structure, how tax equity got comfortable with the risk of the technology and sponsor. The investors also used a tax equity structure becoming more common than the fixed time flip that many investors have used in the past. We couldn’t leave the interview without asking Conor about his thoughts on tax reform and how it could impact the markets. What would happen if tax rates are lowered and how investors view that potential risk in their model. At the end, he shares some thoughts about what gets him most excited in 2017, and it has to do with lowering the cost of capital. Listen now! [soundcloud url="https://api.soundcloud.com/tracks/306939430" params="color=ff5500&auto_play=false&hide_related=false&show_comments=false&visual=false&show_playcount=false&show_user=true&show_reposts=false" width="100%" height="166" iframe="true" /]