This is your SolarWakeup for November 3rd, 2017
Have a great weekend, I will be back in touch on Monday from DC where I will be interviewing Tom Matzzie from CleanChoice at Solar Focus Conference.
No, Don’t Say That. The highest hopes I had for Rick Perry was that he’d want to turn the entire country into an ERCOT market. Now he’s just an embarrassment considering his post is normally filled with some of the smartest people in the world. Let’s focus on the future where some of solar’s biggest innovators are electrifying developing Countries in amazing ways – in ways that central power plants could never do it.
Future of Peakers. Probably doesn’t include much gas. If you don’t get a capacity contract the cost of gas transmission/supply paired with the lack of dispatching will make your plant less than profitable. Starting with California, market spreads between retail and wholesale are ridiculous right now and pricing signals are showing that markets want to move away from gas peakers. The future looks towards storage especially when signals get into the microsecond level. How long before every solar plant has energy storage installed on it?
Cost Of Money and Jobs. Tariffs will cost jobs and fail to create a market benefit. How many jobs are we willing to pay to create nothing here? Let’s highlight the jobs that are located here that are working abroad. If you are a lawyer, investor, developer that is involved in foreign projects, let me know – we need to highlight this.
Trade War. South Korea is threatening a WTO case in response to US tariffs. What will China do? Silicon is a good case study of how jobs are lost when politicians try to play market development.
Ratebase Victory. The hurricane that caused me to lose two weeks of my life, caused many grey hairs and cost me thousands is about to cost me more in the form of higher electric bills. As the hurricane came through and snapped my power pole in half, utilities in Florida were calling the hurricane, Saint Irma. Every wire that fell, every truck that had to be called in – meant more cost that needed to be ratebased and repaid by the consumers (don’t forget to add the return on that ratebase).
Tax Reforms. Solar will be fine, if you want to worry, worry about the impact on depreciation value with a lower corporate tax rate. Building a pipeline is more important right now, the ITC is incredibly unlikely to go away.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 2nd, 2017
Tax Reform. The House tax writers are working overtime trying to get the tax plan to the members. Some rumors are circling that the solar ITC could be on the block. Realistically, the tax plan has a lot of headwind and even if it gets to the President, it will be very unlikely that the ITC will be cut. The tax rate reductions would be the more important number to watch which will impact the supply of tax liability – and reduce value of the depreciation.
Just The Thought. Solar fails the basic power test. What is the repercussion to a politician for floating an anti solar idea, let alone vote against solar? The answer is – nothing. We don’t play politics, we’ve shunned solar advocates that play politics. The solar coaster will continue until we get off the bench and grow up. Our budgets are too small and we don’t do the hard work that would identify politicians that are willing to sell out on solar before they ever gain power. For example, my County commissioner voted in favor of a resolution that favored the utility against solar. He is now running for State Representative in a race where the margin is a couple thousand votes. A solar advocacy campaign can derail his political career right here and right now but we won’t be there to do it and in a few years he’ll be running for progress with no repercussions on his anti-solar vote.
NOPR #1. The root of the coal subsidy in the NOPR is having 90 days of fuel supply. Solar, especially with storage, would make sense to qualify. I didn’t ask the question to Jon Wellinghoff but we talk about the process that could impact the power markets you are working in. Podcast here.
NOPR #2. Join me on the 7th of November in DC at MDV SEIA’s Solar Focus Conference as I interview CleanChoice Energy’s CEO, Tom Matzzie. We’ll be discussing the impact of the NOPR on energy prices and some potentially fraudulent trades on gas capacity. If you’re not watching and learning about power markets, you are not realizing where your market is going.
Transcript. Most podcasts, including Episode 023, will not have a transcript in the post if you prefer to read the text of the conversation.
Read For Yourself. Are you confused about the different recommendations that the ITC commissioners voted on? Find the individual statements in the post below.
DC Happy Hour? As I mentioned before, the important next step in the 201 process is the trade representative hearing on the 6th, the same day as Live! DC. There will be a large contingent of the solar industry in town. I’ve been asked if I would plan and host a happy hour to get together after the hearing and after Live! DC. If you are interested in co-hosting and sponsoring this event, reach out.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 1st, 2017
Big Success In Boston. Nothing caught on fire at the sold-out inaugural SolarWakeup Live! event in Boston. All four conversations dove deep in to the content, some of which I give you some highlights of below. Recorded interviews will be released over the next month.
SMART RFP Coming. I spoke with Mike Judge from DOER who led the SMART regulation process which is currently at the DPU for tariff language. We spoke about the auction process to clear the initial block of projects and how the 201 process impacts the timeline and if the process can proceed without knowing the costs of development. DOER is party to the DPU proceedings and expects to comment in some ways on the creation of the tariff process.
NEM Cap In MA. S. 1824 increases the net metering cap in MA by 5% and is sponsored by Senator Boncore who joined us yesterday. While the bill is progressing through the Senate, current in the TUE committee, there is no timeline on reporting it out of committee or hearing it on the Senate floor. Most importantly, there was little understanding of how the House would view the bill. Result? Don’t expect quick work on the cap increase.
ITC Vote. The trade commission held a vote yesterday to recommend some tariffs on imported modules. For those keeping count that would be the third tariff. They are lower than what Suniva and SolarWorld asked for and analysts from Roth Capital view the resulting ASP in the low 40cent per watt. That being said, this doesn’t mean anything until the President decides what he wants to do about it. This is still a tax on American consumers but probably livable for the US solar market. Keep up the pressure and make sure to attend the USTR hearing on the 6th in DC if you can.
FERC Trouble. Jon Wellinghoff spent 8 years on the FERC board including 4 as the Chairman. He has spent his career on policy and I knew that is the voice I wanted to hear about the DOE NOPR. From now on, let’s call the NOPR what it is – a subsidy for coal plants in what should be open and free markets. There seems to be additional trouble brewing at FERC, which Jon describes at the end of the episode. Listen here.
DC Dec 6th. Join us in DC, already 50% sold out so make sure to get your tickets soon and get one for a friend. If you are interested in sponsoring, email me, you get on the website, newsletter and conference.
Sponsor Thank You! Please support our Live! Boston sponsors. EnterSolar is hiring. True Green Capital is buying projects. DGEP Management is investing in development. If you want a personal intro, let me know.
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Yann
E023: Impact of DOE’s NOPR and Next Steps At FERC with Former Chairman Jon Wellinghoff
[00:00:01] Today I’d like to welcome Jon Wellinghoff to the show. Jon is the principal at policy DER consulting. He spent a year as a chief policy officer SolarCity but most importantly for this conversation was, he was a commissioner at FERC from 2006-2013 and the chairman for the last four years of his tenure. Welcome to the show Jon.
JON WELLINGHOFF:
In this episode I speak with Jon Wellinghoff, former FERC Chairman and Principal at Policy/DER consulting. We discuss the DOE NOPR and the FERC docket that is now open to review the proposal to subsidize coal and nuclear plants. Full transcript available below. Make sure to rate and review the podcast! Make sure to check out SolarWakeup Live! in D.C. on 12/6 and NYC late January. If you enjoyed this episode as much as I did, make sure to subscribe on your favorite podcast platform including iTunes, SoundCloud and Stitcher radio. Please subscribe and share with your friends how much … Read More
This is your SolarWakeup for October 31st, 2017
SolarWakeup Live! Boston. Later today! If you have specific questions for the speakers, email them over. Remember that you will be able to hear the recordings in a few weeks, barring any technical issues. Those in the live audience will likely have some more market intelligence than you but no need to be jealous. You’ll have the chance to catch the next event in DC.
State of Energy. Yesterday, GTM Research’s Shayle Kann announced his soon to happen departure from GTM. He’s been a well known part of the solar research that has made it to events such as Obama’s State of the Union address. In his parting words, he gives a State of the Energy market similar to the presentation he was known to give at the Solar Summits. No word yet on his next move.
Learning 201 As We Go. The ITC is meeting once again today to vote on remedies. From the testimony we’ve seen, and since 201 is an old petition that isn’t used much, the remedy will have to cause greater good than harm. That being said, the rules of engagement are not well understood and somewhat up to interpretation by the commissioners. We may get some information tomorrow on which way this goes, but the President can come up with his own remedy so it may not matter what the ITC does.
Whitefish Released, Investigation. An insider deal to screw over the Americans in Puerto Rico gets some sunshine from journalists. Now the FBI is investigating and it could get ugly. Red fish, blue fish, white fish, no fish.
MA Net Metering. At 1pm I am interviewing the sponsor of S. 1824, a MA Senate bill to increase the NEM cap by 5%. I’m interested to understand the political part of this work by the State Senator. I’ve been giving some thought on the political rewards reaped by politicians that help solar while also wondering if there are political ramifications for voting against solar. If no, why not?
MA SMART, Tariff Filing. At 4pm, I speak with the person in charge of creating the new SMART program in Mass which is now in front of the DPU to create the tariff language. I’ve got some questions on the process, most importantly on when we will see the benchmark auction that will set the clearing price. If it happens before 201 is resolved, how would it take that into account?
New York. With the success of Live! events in Boston and DC, I am announcing the next location in New York in late January. Likely the last week of the month. More to come.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 30th, 2017
New Format. Headlines are vague so today you will find a highlight and one-sentence summary instead of the article title. It’s time consumer so this may not happen every day but I want to know what you think and if you prefer this over the former format.
Boston! I am on my way to Boston as you receive this for the first (of many) SolarWakeup Live! events. A sold out event (thank you) with great speakers( thank you) should show that solar conversations can be done in a better way. We’ll keep adjusting until it’s better than the nauseous solar circuit that is currently plaguing the solar industry. You’ll be able to listen to the conversations in a few weeks, complete with transcripts. Please support the sponsors and considering sponsoring so this experiment continues.
ITC Tomorrow. Tomorrow, the trade commissioners will meet to discuss and vote on remedy proposals that will be transmitted to the President in a few weeks. I’ve been told that more than one proposal could be transmitted. Note that after the proposal goes to the White House, the trade representative will host a hearing on December 6th, the day of SolarWakeup Live! DC.
WSJ Adds On. The editorial board at the Wall Street Journal came out against the 201 tariffs yesterday. Their support is appreciated but from the first paragraph available for public consumption, their facts and editorializing of the case seems off. Onward, message remains the same.
100% Missouri. What is the backdrop for the political shift that allows St. Louis to vote for 100% renewable energy? Cities like Fort Lauderdale and Miami have yet to pass, let alone vote for the worthy goal.
Sunny News LV. If politicians are rewarded with positive feedback for passing solar policy, you can imagine that more politicians look to be pro-solar. The opposite should be true as well, if you vote against solar, you should see political risk. More on this soon.
Watch EVs. 32% of the Norwegian car market is electric. If the US market were to see something along these numbers, you would see 4million new EVs on the road that year. Assuming Volt level usage, that’s 40GWh per DAY of new energy need. In solar terms, we’re talking over 10GW of solar per year to power this growth. Just saying!
Jon Wellinghoff. On Wednesday, a new episode of EnergyWakeup will be released. I spoke with former FERC Chairman, Jon Wellinghoff, about the DOE NOPR and how it would impact the energy markets. In the meantime, catch up on my conversation with Meghan Nutting, who is running for State Assembly in Colorado.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 27th, 2017
December 6th. Next Tuesday the trade commission will vote on one or more remedies to submit to the President. Those proposals will be submitted on the 13th of November. The new event is a US Trade Representative hearing on December 6th in DC, same day as our Live! Event. This is important because the trade representative is in the oval office talking tariffs. You will not want to miss this piece of the 201 process. Here is the meeting notice.
Senator #2. Maryland Senator Van Hollen joins Senator Heinrich to speak up against the trade case. He speaks up for the 2,500 resident of Maryland that would lose their jobs to prop up a bankrupt company and an offshore hedge fund. This speaks to the requirement that the remedy result in more good than bad. Van Hollen’s letter.
MN Legislature. Minnesota, with a rapidly growing solar market centered around community solar, has spoken out as well. A group of State legislators from both houses has come out to protect the Canadian exemption from the remedy, saying the economies of Canada and Minnesota are closely tied. Two legislators spoke at the original ITC hearing against the injury proceeding. MN letter to ITC.
Puerto Rico Senate. To start, this is a reminder that a majority of Americans in Puerto Rico are living without power. It’s 80 plus degrees and they have no air conditioning and many don’t have access to clean water. A member of the Senate, who was the former President of the PR Senate, speaks from the heart about the devastation caused by Hurricane Maria. “From this devastation, Puerto Rico has an opportunity to rebuild with clean energy resources like solar.” His letter here.
China Trip. On November 3rd, Trump heads to Asia, starting his trip in Japan before heading to South Korea and China before ending at the ASEAN meetings. The agenda is packed and while I am hopefully optimistic that the Chinese parties bring up the solar trade case, it is becoming increasingly possible that it does not get discussed. This leaves for lobbying on the trade remedy to happen locally, ideally through a special report from Sean Hannity while the President is watching.
DC Tickets. Now that you see what’s going on in DC, make sure to join us for Live! DC on the 6th of December. Tickets here.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 26th, 2017
Solar Pro Running For Office. Today’s podcast is with Meghan Nutting. You may know her because she’s been working in solar policy for the better part of a decade working on State policy in over 20 States. Now she is running for State House in Colorado, representing the Denver area. Great conversation about what it takes to run and how more solar people should be doing it.
Donate. What would be better than having a solar professional in the Colorado State Assembly? Chip in what you can and pass the hat in your office. $25 or more is super helpful, let’s show Meghan the power of SolarWakeup. Maximum donation is $400 and no corporate checks. Donate Here.
Puerto Rico. A 2 person shop from Whitefish Montana is bragging about having 40 workers in San Juan and we may be looking at US citizens staying without power for a year if this continues. This looks ripe for Federal intervention given the bureaucracy and the strange contracts to unqualified contractors. At least the solar industry appears to be making headway in building some systems.
Privatization. PREPA is not a shining example of how you run a utility. With ideas and interest being floated on privatizing parts of the utility market, with PREPA retaining the wires. This could remove PREPA’s credit from the equation and allow generation to trade in the island market. The problem about Government credit would remain since public entities represent a large part of the market and unpaid bills. As a smart person in the utility space told me, after all this, “who makes the decision on making a change?”
Acquisitions. Yesterday it was all about raising money, today we have a group of acquisitions. Cypress Creek sold more projects to Australia’s New Energy, which has been on a buying spree. On the power front, TransCanada is unloading solar assets and Vistra is looking to acquire Dynegy. I’m a bit confused about the Vistra acquisition given the recent announcements to close ERCOT plants.
Live! DC. Early bird tickets for SolarWakeup Live! DC are now available. The room is small, just 50 people will be able to be there live and if it goes like Boston, it will sell out in advance of the event, reserve your tickets now.
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Yann
E022: Meghan Nutting, A Solar Policy Pro Running For State Legislature In Colorado’s 5th District
In this episode I speak with Meghan Nutting, a solar veteran that has worked in policy roles at SolarCity and Sunnova over the past decade. Meghan is running for the State Legislature in the very powerful 5th district. The current legislator in this district is the Speaker of the House, Crisanta Duran. This is a safe democratic seat which leads the winner of the primary to likely take general election. As an advocate, I see a big need for more solar pros like Meghan to run for office, electric coop boards and other appointments. Having solar leaders in the discussion … Read More
This is your SolarWakeup for October 25th, 2017
Sold Out! SolarWakeup Live! Boston is now sold out. If you were planning on buying a ticket, a waitlist is now online, first come, first served. Thank you to everyone for your support!
Grid Ops. I’m spending quite a bit of time talking with grid planners trying to understand what dispatchable solar assets, centralized and distributed, mean to a utility operation. Mainly, trying to ascertain what type of value is generated in addition to the value of energy and how to monetize the power. If you work at a utility and want to have this conversation, on a purely hypothetical basis, I want to talk to you and your colleagues. There is no doubt in my mind that all solar in the next decade will be dispatchable in some way with storage, just a matter of when and how it is executed.
$. Sunrun announced a new debt facility of $244.5million.
$$. Tesla is securitizing $340million in contracts.
$$$. Brookfield is refinancing $300million in Terraform debt.
$$$$. Hannon Armstrong is raising $164million in green bonds.
Show Me The $. That’s just what some of the news had about solar companies raising money for projects today, and it’s not everything. There is a desire and need to deploy capital into infrastructure and the scale is larger than most had expected a decade ago. Money available, projects needed. Except of course complicated distributed projects, that’s still a mess.
New EnergyWakeup Tomorrow. I had a fantastic conversation with Meghan Nutting today that will be released tomorrow during the day so make sure to subscribe to EnergyWakeup on your favorite podcast platform. Meghan has been working in solar for a decade, currently with Sunnova, and she is running for the State House in Colorado to represent downtown Denver. More on how you can get involved and help elect a solar leader coming soon.
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Yann