This is your SolarWakeup for February 2nd, 2018

The Weekend. A great week in New York and I head to San Francisco next week. The state of the solar industry is steady and resilient. Mentally prepared for anything that is thrown at the industry, most of you are doing a good job of taking things in stride. That being said, for all of you heading to Solar Power Northeast, I can only say one thing to you. Fly Eagles Fly!

State Job Losses. GTM is breaking down the impacts of 201 by State. While California may have the biggest impact, it will be felt less than Texas perhaps. The fringe PURPA States will simply not start up or continue to grow from a nascent state. That being said most of the Florida losses I don’t agree with. Most of Florida solar is built on the balance sheet of the ratepayer and therefore a cost increase is actually a financial improvement to the utility monopoly since it increases rate base.

South Carolina Pain. This likely spells the end of the SCANA acquisition by Dominion. SCANA was scheduled to bill SC ratepayers about $37million per month but the State legislature voted 119-1 against allowing SCANA to collect those payments. I know it seems obvious that the legislature would vote this way but I don’t underestimate the power of utilities in Southeast legislatures. This time, the right vote was taken, now to figure out the 1 person that voted for it. (Mr. I pushed the wrong button/Mr. I am termed out and need a job)

You Failed At Your Job. The US Government has an employee that describes his job this way. “I went to Washington, D.C., for one purpose and that was to help create coal jobs in the United States. That’s my total purpose for being there.” Once you pick your jaw up from the table, you should be comforted by the fact that he is going to fail in his one purpose. Also, how does he sleep at night?

My Lithium Ion 201 Testimony. Fast forward 5-8 years from today and someone in the US is crying that China owns the lithium ion battery manufacturing supply chain. If you look where US IP went post bankruptcy and where the investments in manufacturing are going right now, you will find much of it in lithium battery city. If the US wants to lead, do it now.

Presented by Mintz Levin. Mintz Levin is an Am Law 100 law firm with a nationally recognized Energy & Sustainability Practice that has completed more than 500 transactions across energy sectors totaling over $7.5 billion since 2006.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 1st, 2018

Grateful. Yesterday’s SolarWakeup Live! event exceeded all expectations and by the look of the lobby, it seems that good networking was in the works. I want to thank everyone that attended and the sponsors for making the event possible. Look out for the conversations to make it onto the website and your favorite audio platform in the next few weeks. When looking at the podcasts, don’t forget to search for EnergyWakeup to subscribe.

Clean Peak. The new version of the RPS is the Clean Peak Standard, an RPS that moves with the peak demand of the grid. This aligns the clean energy needs with the grid’s needs, i.e. preemptively adjusts procurement with side effects of the duck curve. In many ways this could be called the storage RPS.

SMART Storage. As SMART rolls out, I want to hear from the market participants about the program. There is a nice oped in the rundown today. My question to you is what percentage of SMART projects will be built with storage? The economics seem to be clearly in the money with storage but surely there are other market obstacles that may stop you from moving ahead with storage, tell me what your thinking is.

Conference Call? If SolarWakeup were to host a conference call on an ongoing basis, would you be interested in that? What types of experts would you want to have on and is this interaction something worthy of the time investment, on your and my end?

Call For Next City. Boston, DC and New York are in the books. Where should we go next? Goal is to have markets which could drive 100 attendees or more.

Presented By EnterSolar. EnterSolar is a leading provider of solar photovoltaic solutions to the commercial marketplace that is ranked the #1 solar developer in New York State and in the top 10 nationally.We are currently hiring at our growing company. 

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 31st, 2018

Time For Live! In NYC. It’s never too late to join us in New York for SolarWakeup Live! This will be a great event and if all technology works as intended you will be able to hear the podcast replays in a few weeks. Thanks to all for joining and the sponsors that make it happen.

Arizona Sees The Light. Don’t blame me if I read the highlights from the Arizona Corporate Commissioner with a grain of salt. But, I will take it as a sign in the right direction if executed on correctly. It will be a good day for Arizona consumers if the ACC moves towards power generation that does not have exposure to fuel cost volatility and takes advantage of Arizona’s land and solar resource.

Taiwan Jumps In. As South Korea has filed and Canada is complaining to the WTO about NAFTA, Taiwan is also asking for remedy against the US. I am still waiting for the Chinese response to the 201 tariff. Lighthizer better start working quickly towards a settlement before this all gets out of control.

BP Makes Another Move. Having an EV charging network means having access to real estate that will enable the electrified transportation system to run more efficiently. That is why some of the biggest energy, oil, and transportation companies have invested into EV charging companies. BP is now moving into this space with an investment and announcement that they will put charging at their gas stations. Since they already have the real estate this would seem to make sense, look to see other oil majors do the same.

Presented By FlexGen. FlexGen has been providing energy storage solutions for military and microgrid applications for nearly a decade and installed the largest DC-coupled solar plus storage project in the world. Their integrated solution is ideal for your dc-coupled storage project for projects over 250kW.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 30th, 2018

I am on my way to New York for the third edition of SolarWakeup Live! 6 years ago, this newsletter went to about 40 people and it’s unbelievable where it has gone since. On Wednesday there will be almost 150 people in a room to join in a conversation about solar. The hope is that this becomes a monthly get together because our industry is constantly moving forward, deploying well over $20 billion every year. See you Wednesday!

Energy Progression. A few years ago there was a massive coal to natural gas replacement cycle. In Florida, there was also a oil to gas replacement. The replacement cycle is supposed to revolve every 30+ years or so. As we’ve seen in Michigan, it may be the end of gas as a replacement source given where the cost curves of renewables and storage are and where they’re going. At the very least, ratepayers should be given the choice to invest in a future that prices in the cost of fuel price volatility and the source of the energy. Time to look up after a century of looking down.

NJ Back To The Top. State races matter as New Jersey is showing us. NJ will be fixing the solar market shortly after a Christie veto and is now going back into RGGI and backing the Paris climate accord. I’m excited to see where NJ goes from here, it has a great market that can reestablish the area as a solar powerhouse.

Tax Shell Game. Ever since the tax reform came through, some regulators have pushed for utilities to pass the additional profits back to ratepayers. This sounds like recouping fuel savings when the prices drop which never seem to go back to where they came from when rates went up. For solar, this is a catch 22 since our unspoken secret is that we do better when rates go up and never down. I don’t see many of you rushing to advocate at the commissions to bring this money back to the ratepayers.

Coming To America. Jinko has confirmed that it’s coming to Florida with a secret procurement deal. I’ve gotta say something that seems obvious to me. There are only a few buyers in the US marketplace that would sign a 1.75GW module deal, especially somewhat tied to the intention of opening a factory in Florida Moreover, navigating the Florida economic development council takes work on top of the legwork you need to engage the Jacksonville Mayor’s office at the same time. Leaving the procurement announcement nameless seems ridiculous to me, there is a well over 75% chance that Florida Power & Light/NextEra is the counterparty. This wouldn’t be the first time that NextEra has tried to do this, they’ve been looking for a manufacturing win for almost a decade.

Presented by Aten Solar. Experts in adding value to your supply chain and procurement.  Aten Solar is your go-to source for the best closeout pricing on new and surplus modules for your project needs. They still have limited modules available at pre-tariff pricing, visit atensolar.com for details

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 29th, 2018

201 Recap. Last week we learned about the 201 tariffs from Trump and SolarWakeup quickly held a conference call for our readers. That call is now available online for you to review. This week, I head to New York for our third SolarWakeup Live. We will hear about community solar, blockchain, energy storage, REV and investments in New York. I also have an unannounced guest that was inside the room during 201 tariff discussions fighting for the solar industry every step of the way. If you are in the area, don’t miss the event the solar industry is calling the most important gathering in America.

Congrats. Oliver Crane has made it to Antigua. Catch the livestream on the ‘Atlantic Campaigns’ facebook page. It was pretty cool so it gets the double mention. A big thanks from all of you that donated and shared his donation page.

SunPower Hits Back. The stop and go portion of the 201 tariff has already caused job losses in solar, we’ve been saying that since the start. Since the announcement of the tariff, it has been more of the same with the press release, proclamation and annexes all coming separately. Then we waited for the exemption process and hinting at a path to global settlements. SunPower was adamant about their differentiation during the USITC hearings and filings. Their position was that the IBC technology is just as different as First Solar’s CdTe solution which was exempted. SunPower is now stopping a $20million investment and hiring plan until they find out if their exemption request comes out. The interesting subplot is that if Suniva had been run properly from the start, taking on SunPower’s dealer network would have worked. Instead they were greedy and focused on the SolarCity/Sunruns of the market and promptly screwed up customer service when they changed their supply chain software solution. I hope for the sake of SunPower, their employees and dealers that they get the exemption.

South Korea Files With WTO. This is unlikely to be the first WTO filing by a country affected by the tariff. The political ramifications elude me unless the politics are better at putting issues into silos than I thought. It may also provide an inside look on if the tariffs hold up at the WTO.

Red State Pushback. Tom Matzzie highlights the interesting ‘policy by press release’ result of the 201 tariffs. The jobs that will be lost, in large part, come in the form of lost jobs in the future; i.e. growth of market that will not occur. Many of those projects are in the Trump States that wanted better paying blue collar jobs. The political challenge now is to use this issue as a way to show the tangible economic opportunity presented by solar and win an election fighting for solar to grow. The 201 tariff is both anti-growth and wage suppressing while costing taxpayers half a billion dollars.

Presented By Pfister Energy – Your only source for turnkey design-build renewable energy system solutions. We provide world-class power solutions for the commercial, industrial, and utility sectors with an emphasis on energy efficiency and energy management. Visit us at www.pfisterenergy.com

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 26th, 2018

19 Year Old. World Record. Clean Oceans. For the past month and a half, a 19 year old has been ROWING a boat that has capsized numerous time ACROSS the Atlantic. He is doing it all for charity and this weekend he will have made it across the Atlantic and be the youngest to ever accomplish this row solo. This has been an amazing story that I’ve had the privilege to read about in a play by play from Oliver’s father, David Crane. Oliver is doing this for an amazing charity to help clean the oceans. Clean oceans means a clean future for all of us. Please spare a few dollars and if you can’t spare a few dollars, share this on your social media. Imagine being completely alone, on a 22 foot kayak, auto-rudder broken, steering yourself to Antigua. Give for clean oceans here. 

201 Tariff Conference Call. If you missed the conference call on Wednesday you can now hear it on the EnergyWakeup podcast. Make sure to subscribe and give us a review to get the word out about this. All of our great content from the live events and now conference calls are on the podcast stream. Here is the link for the conference call. 

Real Numbers From GE. A division of GE had sales of $10.4 billion in 2017 and it is none other than the renewable energy group at GE. While it comes from the wind turbine business, it creates a shift in dynamic within the industrial giant. 10 billion is the eleven figure club that makes business unit heads a little bit more powerful. Mark this down as a moment in the energy transition that mattered.

Silicon Battles. Does China need the US solar market to be bigger by allowing cheaper solar modules to thrive in the market enough to let US silicon compete in their supply chain? That’s the question now as we try to kick off the settlement discussions.

Praise And Debate. Yesterday Gore gave a pass to Trump for the tariffs. Headlines overshadowed Gore’s intention of blaming the petitioners. The GOP isn’t happy about the tariffs, as stalwart defenders of the free trade market, this goes counter to their platform. However, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who may have more solar in his district than other member of the House, praised Trump for the tariffs yesterday. The praise was wrapped in irony because they were made while standing in Davos for the World Economic Forum. Where’s my invitation by the way?

COSEIA Call For Nominations. Help Honor Solar Projects:  Do you know of a wonderful solar or energy storage project that deserves recognition? If so, the new COSEIA awards program is designed to provide kudos to these projects. Nomination form here. I will be interviewing a special guest on March 15th at the COSEIA Conference.

Presented By FlexGen. FlexGen has been providing energy storage solutions for military and microgrid applications for nearly a decade and installed the largest DC-coupled solar plus storage project in the world. Their integrated solution is ideal for your dc-coupled storage project for projects over 250kW.

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Yann

E034: SolarWakeup Conference Call On 201 Tariff Decision, Market Impacts and Pricing Forecast

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What: On January 24th, SolarWakeup held a conference call to discuss the 201 Tariffs and their market impacts Summary: Joined by solar experts, Colin Rusch of Oppenheimer and MJ Shiao of GTM Research, SolarWakeup held a conference call to discuss the impacts and next steps from the President’s solar tariffs. Research from Oppenheimer suggests price increases echoed by GTM Research and MJ Shiao discussed GTM Research’s data about the decline in market size. SolarWakeup View: Prior to the call, Yann briefed the listeners about his view on the 201 results and what it meant to the businesses in the solar … Read More →

This is your SolarWakeup for January 25th, 2018

SolarWakeup Conference Call. I want to thank Colin Rusch from Oppenheimer and MJ Shiao from GTM Research for joining me on the SolarWakeup conference call to review Trump’s 201 actions, impact on price and what the market looks like under these new rules. If you enjoyed the conference call and would like to see SolarWakeup do more of them, I’d love to hear from you.
Making A Settlement. This is the next step that many are foreshadowing. It was listed in the proclamation and mentioned in the President’s comments. Now Hemlock is leveraging the tariff to push the parties to finally get behind the settlement. I don’t know why the settlement didn’t happen before and I can’t understand why it wouldn’t happen here. None of the petitioners win with this tariff and it doesn’t actually help create more module manufacturing here. The question is how does the settlement happen now, who gets into the room and when can it happen?
Who Gets Exempt. The annex to the tariff proclamation is out and there isn’t much in there that we didn’t expect. Mexico and Canada remain on the included list and there is no exemption for 72 cell or high efficiency premium modules which were asked for during the process. Consumer solar products are exempt so you can continue to buy solar powered backpacks and driveway lights. We do expect to see additional information about the cell import quota and companies filing for individual exemptions soon.
Calling The End To Gas. Danny Kennedy of CalCEF is out with a thorough view of the natural gas marketplace and the current pain it is in. As we look at the future of energy storage pricing, the process for replacing gas will happen fast. The paradigm shift will occur when markets move from minute pricing to second pricing.
SolarWakeup Live. New York will be the largest SolarWakeup Live! to date. The speakers are geared to give you great insight and information about where to focus. This event and future ones will now be more than just great content but also a great place to meet solar professionals. There are still just a few seats left if you would like to register. After SolarWakeup Live! there will also be a happy hour that we are co-hosting with EnergeiaWorks. Register here
Presented By Panasonic. When you install Panasonic HIT® high-efficiency solar panels, you’ll provide homeowners with what we believe are the most efficient solar modules available today. Let’s take your business to profitable new levels together. 

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for January 24th, 2018

Trump Proclaims. Yesterday, in a public signing in the Oval Office Trump signed the 201 tariffs in a proclamation. I can’t do the comments justice, you have to watch the video for yourself to listen to see how out of sync the comments are with reality. You have to wonder where the disconnect is when the solar industry met with the person standing behind the President but the comments remain so factually incorrect. While I expect the blame to be put on the Trump factor, I am concerned that the advocacy appears to have failed at every level, the USITC, the USTR and then the President. As a reminder, this is the third trade case that solar has lost. Outside of the ITC extension, we can’t say that DC has been kind to solar.

Don’t Buy The BS. Solar will survive is not an answer for this tariff. Yes, the market will move forward because there is no other option. BUT. This isn’t a non-factor. Solar was not advocating for this result privately. Manufacturing will still not thrive in the US. I’ve read all the spin that has come across my desk and it’s largely all BS. Most of all, this is not a good thing for solar. We’ve all been struggling to find profits within the right balance of volume. Taking 10 cents off the top means less money to pay for the operations of your solar company.

Tariff Impact Data. Greentech Media is out with the data on the impact from the tariff which is enacted on February 7th. In the next month, you will also see a process for exemptions for products that consider themselves eligible. GTM Research will be on our conference call today at 3pm.

For Sale. PREPA, the Puerto Rico public utility, is going to be privatized. Consider NextEra an interesting candidate to make that move given the need for some aid from Congress to make it work. You can also see some European players make a move to engage the process.

My View On What’s Next. Some things need to change in solar. Going 0 for 3 on trade cases means that the entire approach is broken. My thoughts on the matter. Make sure to register for SolarWakeup Live! New York to continue this discussion

Presented by Mintz Levin. Mintz Levin is an Am Law 100 law firm with a nationally recognized Energy & Sustainability Practice that has completed more than 500 transactions across energy sectors totaling over $7.5 billion since 2006.

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This is your SolarWakeup for January 23rd, 2018

Tariff Breakdown Conference Call. Join me tomorrow for a conference call at 3 PM EST to discuss the tariffs put in place. I will have a few experts on to discuss their take in addition to mine. RSVP Here.

The Decision. By now you have seen the news, Trump put a 30% tariff in place in response to the ridiculous 201 petition. It declines 5% per year and the first 2.5GW of imported cells are exempt. There does not appear to be an exemption for anything, module size or country of origin. Everyone is denouncing the decision rather harshly, especially given the overarching advocacy against the tariffs. This is the third trade case that solar has lost in the past few years, a record that is not to be emulated.

The Bad. Module prices are going up and it’s going to hurt. Markets, especially large scale ground mount, in places that use PURPA or hedges are going to suffer. 10 cents is more than the margin in most cases which means that the price pressure is going to get intense. The fact that solar lost again is also a sign that we must think about doing things differently. I ask again, what would it take for a US cell phone maker to file a 201 against Apple and actually have it hear. It would never happen. Solar must review the plan of action it undertook and understand what went wrong and what has to change going forward.

The Good. It’s not nearly as bad as it could have been. On the other hand, once pricing settles back into place, you may be surprised to see pricing below Q1 2017. In fact, I believe that most people will buy panels below where they bought most of the 2017 modules at. Also, the uncertainty is over. No more discussions about import risk and who takes the risk of retroactive tariffs. You can go about your business with a clear set of guidelines. You have also seen how bad it can get if you don’t get involved. Use this opportunity to look at your own actions and what you could have done differently.

Settlement. Lighthizer’s comment is right in the tariff press release. The USTR will look to engage interested parties to try and create a global settlement. My take, the 201 tariffs do little to help SolarWorld and Suniva with cash and the global settlement is the best way. I would look to remove the all the US tariffs and the Chinese tariffs on US silicon while creating an import license to drive cash to US manufacturers. This would lower the overall cost of solar in America and grow the market while actually helping grow US-based manufacturing.

Longer View. If you want even more of my opinion on the matter including what I think needs to happen next, check it out here.

Talks Continue. Join me in New York next Wednesday to talk about the 201 process with an industry insider who was in the room. Hint: It’s not Alexander Hamilton. Register here.

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Yann