This is your SolarWakeup for February 13th, 2018

Rate Of Change. “The rate of change is faster than the rate of change has been changing” coming from the Director of the Solar Energy Technology Office, aka SunShot. The event is private so while it’s not off the record, I will leave the rest of the event off this platform. I wanted to pass along this message because after 11 years in solar, it’s great to hear that while things feel stagnant, the rate of change is not.

Trump Budget. Budget documents are largely messaging platforms to show the priorities of an administration. There is little doubt in the process that national labs and renewable energy programs will have lower than previous budgets. While slowing programs is short sighted, I worry about the national labs because the disruption of research is hard to restart. With the Defense budget increasing and DOD’s understand of the threat posed by climate change, wouldn’t it be wise for DOD to fund the research labs?

Watch Capacity. Must like the capacity contracts in California markets, capacity contracts are the basis that allow many power plants to try and get profitable. Look at capacity contracts as the debt service coverage and dispatched energy as the profit determination. The UK held a capacity auction and 4 out of the 6 remaining coal plants failed to clear the price for the capacity auction. BNEF now sees those plants retiring within a few years.

Mainstreaming EVs. CNBC is notorious for covering the auto sector, with a full-time reporter covering the space. But as cars become electric, they are now becoming reporters of the energy market as they impact consumerism across the Country. More EVs on TV is good for solar, our markets will connect more and more.

Watch China. We are obviously not going to see drastic increases of EV subsidies in America but we need to find more ways to accelerate the adoption of electrified transportation. In comparison, China may see more than 1 million EVs sold in 2018. I look forward to seeing fleets and mass transit exchange entirely to electric drives.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 12th, 2018

SunShot. Greetings from DC, where I am going to be for the next few days to peer review the SunShot Summit. I’ve long been a big fan of the work that the SunShot team has enabled through their funding while pushing for results. I know many startups in solar that were able to move forward in a market lacking the seed stage capital needed to get a company off the ground.

Here We Go Again. The NOPR didn’t go where lobbyists had desired when they drafted the subsidy for coal plants for Rick Perry. Now they are pushing the issue again without the onerous regulatory and oversight process. The coal industry is looking for Perry to use emergency powers to prop up the dirty and unprofitable power plants.

Slow Your Ratebase. I’m going to keep the Vote Solar fanboy editorials going until you’ve all given some of your advocacy budget to the company. First in Michigan and now in North Carolina, Vote Solar is getting involved in big rate base initiatives which is really smart. Typically, the solar industry goes into a process asking for something. Now, the advocacy team is going in when the utility wants a big handout and putting itself in the way of a big rate base increase. Most requests of this magnitude end up in a settlement, which is a great place for the solar industry to be to ask for things.

Startup Arctic. Solving local issues with local startups makes a lot of sense. Launch Alaska is doing exactly that, highlighting Alaska’s unique energy challenges and already unique infrastructure, 12% of the grid is on microgrids, the non-profit program is looking to help make the system more efficient. High electricity costs makes the startup ideas become immediately feasible since the financial value of each kWh is much higher.

Save The Snow. You probably watched some of the Winter Olympics this weekend, expertly judging the jumps and knocking the quad that failed into a triple axle. I’m with you, the landing could have been better. When you speak to the athletes that spend time on the mountains, they tell you about their worries about the snow in the future.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 9th, 2018

I am headed back to Miami right now after a great week in SF. More on the work that we’re doing on Monday. Always exciting to dig into new advisory work to help great companies grow in the solar industry. More info on the next SolarWakeup Live! coming soon. Have a great weekend!

CalSEIA -> CalSSA. The state solar trade group that leads the Country’s biggest solar State is moving forward in a big way. CalSEIA is renaming itself CalSSA, the California Solar and Storage Association. I was surprised by the obviousness of the move and quickly wondered why nobody else had done that, especially SEIA. Energy storage is clearly the improvement of solar generation that is coming and letting other groups take that advocacy away from solar generation is ridiculous. Board members tell me that while discussion is centered around how this relates to policy, a rebranding discussion has not come up in any meaningful way. Question is why not…

Contributor Input. You will see a new feature in SolarWakeup today, a contributor piece from a solar market leader. If you have a relevant message that informs or advances the solar industry, you can submit your piece to SolarWakeup going forward.

Your State Advocacy. When you think of the trade group that advances State policies that drive solar markets like net metering or PURPA rules, who do you think of? The answer obviously is Vote Solar which focuses on creating markets across the Country for solar companies to participate in. Not driven by membership fees, Vote Solar relies on fundraisers and foundation dollars. Your budget should include a (very large) check to Vote Solar to keep your market open. Look out for the Equinox event that is happening in March.

Investing $500million. If you were in charge of investing BP’s $500million into renewable energy, how would you divide the investment?

Add More Lawsuits. Canadian manufacturers are not happy with Trump refusing to keep NAFTA rules in place to bring modules from Canada into the US. So they files suit!

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Have a great day!
Yann

SolarWakeup Contributor: As They Sowed, So Shall We Reap

This is your SolarWakeup for February 8th, 2018

A week on the west coast is catching up, jet lag and getting new work done is shortening the summaries you are expecting. More on my current consulting work coming next week, excited to share this with you soon. Don’t forget to meet up at future events including COSEIA and Midwest Solar Expos.

NRG 360 Complete. It seems like yesterday when David Crane, the then CEO at NRG, wrote his memo on seeing the future for NRG to be away from coal and dirty fuels. After years of attempting the 180, the current CEO has had to acquiesce to activist investors and sold off controlling share in the NRG Yieldco and raised further cash selling the renewable energy unit. This is all quite complicated but the NRG renewable energy unit is worth quite a bit of money, which shows where we’ve come. In a week where two yieldcos have gone private for significant sums, solar plays in the big leagues but will do so in a more private setting.

EIA Doh. The EIA is an official joke. In the annual energy outlook there are two numbers that I find laughingly silly. By 2050, EIA expects solar to be 14% of total generation. More ridiculous is that EIA believes that 19% of car sales will be electric and hybrid cars in 2050. Both of those expectations are more in line with 2030 or even 2025. If 75% of car sales in 2050 aren’t electric or hybrid, I would be amazed.

EU Joins Everyone Else. Who isn’t taking the US to the WTO?

Do You Blockchain? Catch the latest podcast here and my conversation about blockchain. Short and to the point, it’s a good introduction to the topic. Rate on iTunes if you want to help me out.

Presented by Aten Solar. Experts in adding value to your supply chain and procurement.  Aten Solar is your go-to source for the best closeout pricing on new and surplus modules for your project needs. They still have limited modules available at pre-tariff pricing, visit atensolar.com for details.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 7th, 2018

Solar Job Numbers Out. Here is your 2017 Solar Jobs Census from the Solar Foundation. Down almost 10,000 jobs but up in 29 States. California and Massachusetts lost the most jobs, 14% and 21% respectively. This is all due to the 201 uncertainty. Suniva and SolarWorld would never create 10,000 jobs and here is the impact they caused, backed by data. This is mostly before the USITC injury finding and definitely before the 201 decision. I’d love to hear from you how 2017 went for your company versus your business plan and how you are planning for 2018.

Blockchain In Solar. The first podcast from the SolarWakeup Live! New York discussions is out. This one was on a topic I didn’t know much about until I started planning. Blockchain is an intriguing technology concept that can help power markets in many ways and in a simplified explanation can become the net metering of the future. It will be some time before it gets integrated more fully but IT companies are already using it without your knowledge which will continue to increase over time. It’s a cool concept that was a popular discussion at the show. Catch the podcast here.

Oil To Solar, Saudi Style. It has taken years for Saudi Arabia to go solar but now it is starting, tapping ACWA Power to build the first large solar farm. Without the trade fights increasing the cost of solar artificially, we saw PPA offers sub 3 cents without subsidies. Keep your eyes on these new markets to push pricing down across solar and energy storage going forward. Scale matters on a global scale.

China To WTO. I guess we will have to watch the WTO process with multiple parties engaging the trade court with regard to the 201 tariff decision. Seems like the easier way would be for President Xi to pick up the phone and tell Trump to drop the tariffs and AD/CVD decisions as well. Sounds that simple to me, Trump feeling that he’s doing Xi a favor should do the trick.

Electrification Sources. Every utility is going to have a different fuel mix so if you have an electric car, the source will differ. There is going to be a direct link between EV drives and their adoption of solar on their home and business because they will want, if possible, get their energy from the sun. That is a lifestyle difference that comes up with the change in habits on the driving side. If you are selling solar to your customers, focus on those with electric cars, they are ready to make a deal.

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Have a great day!
Yann

E035: Blockchain and Solar In Power Markets With LO3 Energy and Nat’l Grid, SolarWakeup Live! New York

What: Interview with LO3 Energy And National Grid On The Use Of Blockchain In The Future Energy Market Summary: Blockchain is a decentralized ledger technology driven to publicity by cryptocurrencies. In this conversation recorded at SolarWakeup Live! New York, Yann speaks with Lawrence Orsini, CEO of LO3 Energy, and Mathew Sachs from National Grid. SolarWakeup View: Blockchain is a new and early concept to the solar market. The Brooklyn microgrid is a pilot project that uses the concept of blockchain within an existing power marketplace. Overproduction of solar generation is delivered in power market credits to willing buyers. It can be sketched out how a distributed ledger within the blockchain can be the de-regulated version of net metering, matching overproduction with other energy consumers without having to have people in the middle of it. Related: Brooklyn Microgrid Subscribe to EnergyWakeup

This is your SolarWakeup for February 6th, 2018

A New (Gas) Tax. If most new car sales are going to be electric in a few years then imagine what will happen to gas tax revenues. Those taxes are largely used to pay for the infrastructure needed to move those cars around: roads, bridges and highways. The gas tax is already lacking in sufficient revenues, when electric cars circumvent the tax we need to look at a tax on energy consumption. Some States are looking at annual registration fees which don’t track consumption. Also, an energy tax for transportation makes more sense because it tracks across energy usage. Utilities will fight against this but even a $0.001/kWh gas tax would make a big dent in infrastructure revenue shortfalls.

SAII. Solar As Infrastructure Investments. The experimental marriage between SunPower and First Solar looks to be on the way to the end. Capital Dynamics has announced that it is acquiring 8point3 from the JV partners. Capital Dynamics has been aggressive and winning deals in the solar market. With this $1billion investment Capital Dynamics is making it clear that doing infrastructure and investing in solar is not mutually exclusive. 8point3 still goes down as the most clever branding venture with the ticker of CAFD, it was a great combination of name and ticker.

Nuclear Group Showdown. Grab your popcorn, there is trouble in nuclear paradise. NextEra has filed a lawsuit against NEI, the Nuclear Energy Institute, the trade group representing nuclear power’s interests in DC. Both NextEra and Energy have apparently left NEI as of the end of 2017. Within the details of the suit, it comes out that NextEra pays somewhere near $860k in membership dues. This makes me wonder what NextEra pays SEPA to be a member. It’s definitely not $860k and probably not even 10% of that number. This seems like an opportunity for SEPA to review its fee structure as its members leave other groups in the changing priorities.  

Good Luck With That. Company comes up with the idea to put solar on the Trump Wall. Trump likes the idea. Trump doesn’t use the idea in the sample walls. Company plans on suing Trump for the solar wall which now has a patent applied for. The wall appears to be making people act in ways that are counter intelligent.

Worried About Solar Scale? You can go down the line and count up the billions of investments that automobile OEMs are making into energy storage. Porsche is now adding $7.5billion to that total. We will soon discuss in greater detail the role that our solar industry plays in the e-mobility space.

Presented by Aten Solar. Experts in adding value to your supply chain and procurement.  Aten Solar is your go-to source for the best closeout pricing on new and surplus modules for your project needs. They still have limited modules available at pre-tariff pricing, visit atensolar.com for details.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 5th, 2018

Getting To Minneapolis. The Super Bowl was last night and it was in Minneapolis. This will be the second most exciting thing in MN this year because I’ll be there during a special SolarWakeup Live! keynote interview with Connexus CEO Greg Ridderbusch during Midwest Solar Expo. Since some of the readers have lost their way as Patriots fans and I don’t want to lose any more subscribers, I will not be congratulating the Eagles or say Fly Eagles Fly.

Get Political. This is correct. The democrats have done a lousy job making solar a political issue. It’s a natural wedge issue, arguing for more jobs with higher wages. At the same time it lets politicians take a stand against monopolies. I always cringe when people tell me solar doesn’t do well in elections because I can count on one hand the political races that were impacted by solar as a issue. I want to see more elections where solar is a central topic while at the same time the argument against monopoly incumbents is made. That’s an issue talking point that works for voters, on both sides of the aisle.

Oil Convergence. Much is being made about oil companies going all in on solar. First off, couple hundred million dollars into solar is far from all in. Oil companies reported some $50billion in profits, last quarter. They also see the statistics on electric vehicles which will not get their energy from oil products. In order to keep that ‘market share’ they need to produce the new fuel, which is electricity.

100% Is Just Smart. A dialogue about 100% renewable energy goals is percolating and whether the goal is smart, achievable and politically motivated. The question to me isn’t whether 100% makes sense, it’s what the timeframe to achieve it is. A goal would be to push the envelope on doing it faster and while it will require capital investments, it will have very little exposure fuel cost volatility and create long term price transparency for customers.

Holy Electric. With Tesla Model 3 reservations in full delivery (I got my invitation to design last week) it will increase EV penetration by more than 30% monthly in the early months of 2018. What happens when the big OEMs get into this game? How much more energy will we need? How will we manage the additional consumption to the likely nighttime peaks it will create?

Presented By Panasonic. When you install Panasonic HIT® high-efficiency solar panels, you’ll provide homeowners with what we believe are the most efficient solar modules available today. Let’s take your business to profitable new levels together.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 2nd, 2018

The Weekend. A great week in New York and I head to San Francisco next week. The state of the solar industry is steady and resilient. Mentally prepared for anything that is thrown at the industry, most of you are doing a good job of taking things in stride. That being said, for all of you heading to Solar Power Northeast, I can only say one thing to you. Fly Eagles Fly!

State Job Losses. GTM is breaking down the impacts of 201 by State. While California may have the biggest impact, it will be felt less than Texas perhaps. The fringe PURPA States will simply not start up or continue to grow from a nascent state. That being said most of the Florida losses I don’t agree with. Most of Florida solar is built on the balance sheet of the ratepayer and therefore a cost increase is actually a financial improvement to the utility monopoly since it increases rate base.

South Carolina Pain. This likely spells the end of the SCANA acquisition by Dominion. SCANA was scheduled to bill SC ratepayers about $37million per month but the State legislature voted 119-1 against allowing SCANA to collect those payments. I know it seems obvious that the legislature would vote this way but I don’t underestimate the power of utilities in Southeast legislatures. This time, the right vote was taken, now to figure out the 1 person that voted for it. (Mr. I pushed the wrong button/Mr. I am termed out and need a job)

You Failed At Your Job. The US Government has an employee that describes his job this way. “I went to Washington, D.C., for one purpose and that was to help create coal jobs in the United States. That’s my total purpose for being there.” Once you pick your jaw up from the table, you should be comforted by the fact that he is going to fail in his one purpose. Also, how does he sleep at night?

My Lithium Ion 201 Testimony. Fast forward 5-8 years from today and someone in the US is crying that China owns the lithium ion battery manufacturing supply chain. If you look where US IP went post bankruptcy and where the investments in manufacturing are going right now, you will find much of it in lithium battery city. If the US wants to lead, do it now.

Presented by Mintz Levin. Mintz Levin is an Am Law 100 law firm with a nationally recognized Energy & Sustainability Practice that has completed more than 500 transactions across energy sectors totaling over $7.5 billion since 2006.

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Have a great day!
Yann