This is your SolarWakeup for August 3rd, 2018
Welcome to August and if you’re European, I hope you enjoy your vacation! Have a great weekend everyone!
Going 100%, Burlington’s RFP. Burlington, VT wants to become a true net-zero city and wants help to do so. The RFP reads like a checklist of legislative goals that are a great guide for other cities at the least and aspirational in the ways that Burlington seeks to achieve its future. Well done.
A PACE Securitization. Congrats to my friends at CleanFund for a $103million securitization of PACE assets that crossed borders and technologies. Most importantly it was rate AAA, which shows the strength that PACE can provide to financings in the C&I space.
Corporate Green Tariffs. Between utility offtake and community, solar/contract for differences in the green tariff. A rate schedule that allows corporations to use their leverage in an economic development process to grow the production of solar generation in the service area. I think that many states that don’t want markets will have to create a quasi QF program for green tariffs.
Public Company Updates. Tesla and SolarEdge filed their quarterly updates yesterday. Tesla short sellers are getting into some pain and SolarEdge continues to show the future of DG solar.
Thoughts On MA? What’s your feedback on the MA legislation that passed this week now that you have had time to review it? Let me know.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 2nd, 2018
A lightning round recap today on the top news in your solar inbox. Speaking of quick and easy, make sure you check out the junction box with integrated flashing for your residential installs. Available at most distributors across the Country.
Gone With The Wind. An Iowa nuclear power plant is closing in favor of more wind. This comes from one of the largest nuclear power operators, NextEra. Aside is the internal power struggle since CEO Jim Robo is a avid supporter of nuclear power and nuclear engineering. In the Spain wind rush a decade ago, Robo was notorious for his disdain for the money lost by his company in those projects.
Look At This Picture. You saw this article yesterday but when I looked at it again yesterday afternoon the picture caught my eye. It is a stock image of an installation in the Miami area. This is what many homeowners are getting now and it’s a shame. It also shows how much more we have to do to educate the AHJs and getting SEIA and the NRCA to warn consumers about the roofing aspect of solar.
Electrify It All. I can’t wait until the high mileage, route vehicles are electrified. The delivery trucks, transit and school buses, and postal vehicles are on/off or idling all day long. The routes and distances are very precise so the battery sizing is easy to calculate. The other side of mass electrification is how the concentrated charging will cause hotspots and peak power needs that will likely get served by batteries.
More PV Manufacturing. It looks like the Tesla plant in Buffalo is ramping up, good to see this happening. I haven’t seen them in the wild but hope to soon. Maybe some of the Tesla employees can invite me over now that I’m a local to the Bay area.
More FPL, In Florida. Florida solar is growing quickly, this time with more IOU rate based solar to the tune of 300MW from FPL. I think this type of capacity is causing FPL to think bigger than a threat from DG by focusing on EV growth and the upside of rate base for their shareholders.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for August 1st, 2018
Mediocre Sausage Making. The MA legislature passed a solar bill yesterday and pardon my lack of excitement. While a bill moving key features forward and a path to remove the fixed charges are included, the NEM cap continues to be punted and the opportunity to give consumers more ability to add solar has been lost for now. Nonetheless, there are important legislative wins and some messages to other utilities that hope to structure anti solar rates, for that this is a solar victory. Hats off to the advocates in solar for getting forward movement but the twitter statement from Vote Solar’s Sean Garren summarizes the final bill. “In like a lion, out like a lamb”
Reviewing California’s Solar Mandate. I appreciate the continued partnership with Barry Cinnamon and his wonderful podcast, The Energy Show. In the latest edition, you will hear him discuss the CA solar mandate on new homes. This is an important topic for me in my day job at Quick Mount PV. New homes represent a great opportunity to lower the cost of solar in a new installation while presenting ways to install attractive solar in a way that still holds quality for 30 years. That quality is sometimes missed because the transaction isn’t with the longterm owner so we appreciate the opportunity to educate homebuilders and installers on making sure its a leak free, quality installation.
Educated Consumers Consume Less. Last week during the heat wave in California (I can confirm that it is warm, but not Florida hot) consumers were asked to lower their energy consumption to ensure blackouts wouldn’t happen. That’s the funny thing about consumers, they can be helpful when educated and can be one of the best demand response tools if planned for properly. That’s the other side of renewables integration that folks don’t plan for. Consumers can, especially with new technology, adapt their habits to get what they want which is 100% renewable energy.
Solar Tariffs To Nowhere. Another great data point about the tariffs, this time the steel and aluminum tariffs. The tariffs are causing disruption more than innovation and in some instances result in worse installs for consumers. If aluminum prices rise, installers don’t replace tiles properly, take a look at the header image on the article. The installer did some sort of hack instead of using a proper tile replacement flashing, happy to show them one if they’d like.
Does Your Neighbor Solar? When I put solar on my home, my neighbors had lots of questions about it. How do you arm your customers and how do you respond to neighbors that are interested in solar? Would love to highlight great ideas here.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 31st, 2018
8minute View On Solar. Frank interviews the CEO of 8minutenergy to discuss how one of the most successful developers views the solar market today. The conversation covers all of the topics that you would think about as a solar pro. It doesn’t matter what segment of solar you cover, you are worried about many of the same things.
Free Market Means Solar For Puerto Rico. I had to read the coverage several times but watching the members of Congress ask questions of the DOE Assistant Secretary on the topic of PREPA and energy in Puerto Rico. The questions are politically motivated and the answers are rooted in truth unable to be wrapped in the normal tone of partisanship.
Helping Grow Credit Unions And Community Banks. I had the pleasure of speaking with the team heading up the Clean Energy Federal Credit Union at the COSEIA conference and the mechanics of the credit union may be complicated but the benefits to the solar industry are immense. The interest alignment and the community benefit fit the vision of most credit unions and someone should find a way to make that deal flow access the local capital more efficient.
Flawed View Of Storage. I try not to be biased by the corporate donor ship to some university think tanks because the money should, in theory, be separated by those academics seeking their truth. As I read the view of the California market and the role that batteries will play, I can’t help but think (at almost every paragraph) who skewed the view of the future for the author. Storage is going to play a massive role in California and it will enable much more solar to be built. EVs and distributed generation will also do a great deal of good for the future but there is no doubt that storage is a massive opportunity for a clean energy future.
SunPower Updates On Impact Of Tariffs. After announcing Q2 earnings, SunPower held their call and some interviews to talk about their views of the solar market. Always great insight from the SunPower call as they are active in many geographies and market segments. The company continues to reduce exposure to large scale solar to focus on DG, announcing Fortune 50 portfolios that added SunPower systems. If you ever wonder where SunPower will be focusing, look at their EBITDA breakdown. Residential solar is where you want to be!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 30th, 2018
The Results Case For Politicians. Jobs, economic growth, and local investments. Those are the pillars of political talking points in an economic stump speech. That’s what solar delivers and we have to work harder inside campaigns to push for our data to get into those speeches. I’d love to hear both sides arguing who is more pro-solar, which is happening a bit in a State representative race I am watching in Florida. Try to get involved in a race and add some talking points to the candidate's speech about consumer choice, job growth and putting money into the local community.
The $10Billion Deal. Last week I asked how you would invest $10billion in renewables and none of you had any ideas. And you missed your chance to make the pitch, instead, BP is putting it into shale gas. The point I am trying to make is that someone like Sunrun, First Solar or anyone else in the rundown today, would love to do $10billion in deals but can’t get that kind of scale on a single deal. The best thing for renewables is for this deal to be a bust, resulting in the investment lost which would cause the shareholders to demand another way.
We All Need To Stand With Resi. Anti-solar demand charges must be stopped by legislatures across the Country if the regulators won’t stand up for consumers. I’ve been thinking about a parallel to the solar industry. Why don’t utilities push back on LED lights, better AC’s or gas powered dryers/stoves and water heaters? The logic is exactly the same, consumers use less electricity. On the other hand, why wouldn’t consumers get a demand credit if they buy an electric car? The residential solar market is the lifeblood to the solar industry, no matter what segment you are in, you won’t see a growing market if consumers aren’t benefitting as well.
NV Energy Choice. This is an interesting twist to the ballot question on allowing corporations to go directly to generators. The Sierra Club and NRDC came out against the ballot question and sided with NV Energy. Apparently, some sort of side deal was made.
Quarterly Headaches. I’m not a stock analyst and seldomly play the markets, but one thing is certain. Running a company like First Solar that is deep in manufacturing, supply, and development with quarterly targets. A single project slipping by a few weeks could cause massive issues for the public company. How is the company supposed to work on 30-year projects if they have to think at 3-month time horizons? Same goes true for most other solar companies that are public, quarterly targets that adjust your cost of capital can’t be the best way to run a business.
Save On Labor, A Word From Quick Mount PV. You will start to see the innovative QRail from QMPV on the ‘shelves’ at your closest distributor. Gone are the days of splicing rails together on the roof using countless metal screws. With the bonded internal splice, QRail will save you time and money when you’re on the roof. Matched with the QClick clamps, you’ll love the way your installs get done in no time. quickmountpv.com
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 27th, 2018
The Module Future. Just when module prices started to stabilize, there is another word from the Chinese that may continue to manufacturer at higher levels. The official word is that the local market needs to cut costs and get competitive, in other words, it could mean to sell the modules for a lower price. I don’t know what this means for the US market but you’ve got to stay on your toes in this market for sure.
Moving Forward State By State. What is it about Massachusetts that shows a prominent future in so many ways for solar that stops the simplest of net metering cap increases from not being able to go through? The same logic goes with Connecticut because both CT and MA have similar politics and great potential for solar. MA has already created thousands of solar jobs and one of the most robust development communities but the NEM cap has been fought for several years with limited success. I hope that this year it will be different and the MA politics go in our favor. That being said, there must be a truth to solar having trouble with legislators from both sides of the aisle that have been in office for too long.
Offshore Wind. The concept of offshore wind is intriguing to me and for solar. Th reason is capital and the value that large capital investment flows means to renewable energy fund investors. The billions it costs to generate big energy in offshore wind will mean big funds that own that infrastructure.
Painful Future For IOUs. It can’t be overstated what the liability docket regarding the California fires in PG&E area could be to the future of PG&E. The issue could result in PG&E being caused to have to pay billions in repairs and other liabilities. What it means for PG&E is they need a regulatory bailout in the form of a favorable decision. On the other hand, this may result in a different future for IOUs, what should they look like?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 26th, 2018
Bloom Goes Public. Count me in as positively surprised. Bloom Energy has gone public and left room for the shares to go up 63% during their first day. With ~300MW of capacity deployed, Bloom is largely viewed as the potential for distributed energy for corporates that make up their customer list. 16 years of operation before going public was not the plan but many people thought this day would never come, so congrats to the Bloom team.
Value Of DG (Again). This is a topic that is frightening, what happens if hackers take over a grid or power plants and cause a long term power outage. Utility execs will tell you that cybersecurity is one of their biggest worries and we continue to hear about the threat, Homeland Security officials started raising red flags a decade ago. We talk about the cost shift that IOUs claim about solar but this is a value to the grid that solar folks rarely get traction on or get credit for creating. If you want to read some of the best reasons to buy your solar neighbor a beer, make sure to read Vote Solar’s Adam Browning’s Twitter feed.
Solar In Florida. Solar in Florida is going to grow at a rapid pace. Last year alone it doubled and this year it could double again before an exponential increase next year. I understand the Florida consumer and have heard my (former) neighbors talk about how badly they want solar. Moreover, you don’t have to ask any homeowners how much energy they use because with air conditioning you’ll never offset 100% of their usage. On the other hand, solar contractors that hope to go into the State will have to learn quickly that permitting and inspections are for real in Florida. You won’t get around installing subpar products without making sure that you are installing to the hurricane codes. In summary, don’t think you can give Floridians a cheap version of solar, you will have to plan on doing it the right way the first time.
Inside Look In SC Politics. This was the David vs. Goliath story that sounded like Goliath had exclusive access to special powers. South Carolina had all of the insider trading of an IOU exerting the power they have over the State legislators. I don’t know how much longer that power can exist before the largely republican legislators can no longer stand behind a monopoly when a free market is a better solution.
State Policies In MA and NJ. Keep your eyes and ears on the ongoing policies in MA and NJ. In MA, the solar industry is looking to increase the net metering cap once again and NJ is hoping to expand the market into the low income markets. Make sure to get a script and call list from your local solar advocates.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 25th, 2018
Duke Aims At Full Monopoly. Just after taking a victory lap for no longer allowing homeowners the ability to put solar on their homes, Duke Energy in South Carolina is giving homeowners that can’t install solar on their homes the ability to join their community solar projects. In this episode of up is down, Duke hopes that solar doesn’t work for people becomes a message that gets homeowners to stop trying to put solar on their homes. Folks in South Carolina, especially solar workers, should be on the phone all day long to their local news outlets and tell the real story, your jobs are on the line. The broader question about public opinion is something that was prompted by BNEF’s Jenny Chase’s tweet. I agree that we do our work but rarely talk about climate change in our work. A
What Michigan Could Have Been. Michigan was the manufacturing leader for solar and the ecosystem of raw materials about 10 years ago. Since then, it has essentially reversed on most of the policies and now is focused on destroying net metering and replace it with something that is nowhere near net metering. Quite the opposite this new policy would result in residential and distributed solar to essentially stop. Politicians should feel a political reality for this kind of policy and those running races should use the issue to make that decision be a bad one politically.
EV Benefits Everyone In Kansas City. KCP&L is making an interesting point about electric vehicles that have a funny similarity to the solar argument. I don’t disagree with KCP&L when they say that they should be able to rate base electric vehicle charging stations because it is a good thing for everyone including the utility shareholders by growing demand. The part that I find intriguing is that solar doesn’t get the same benefit when they argue about net metering and the benefit to all, instead arguing the cost-shift which isn’t real.
Get Active And Win More. I am bringing this back up for discussion since it is relevant with this data point. Every single solar company should be doing legislative outreach at every level, including the local City and County level. In Riverside County, the utility didn’t want to increase net metering caps even when the County passed a ordinance to do so. Now a local company is helping the company put some pressure to enable the market to grow again which all started with local outreach. Job well done in this case. Are you doing any local outreach that I can highlight?
SEIA Feedback. Nice to see the outreach from many of you about the changes made in SEIA’s C-suite. The general consensus I agree with, why now and what happened. The trade cases and tariffs didn’t happen last week and it seems like an odd time to make the moves but we have to hope that the board has a strategy in mind to meet the strategic vision. As the changes at FERC enable a potential bailout for nuclear and coal plants, maybe the concept is to drive some victory for solar so that more distributed generation can be built at the same time to help the grid stability that FERC could be looking for. I look forward to seeing what’s next for Tom Kimbis and really hope that it is in solar, his voice and advocacy has been great for a long time and hope this continues.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 24th, 2018
SEIA Makes Big Changes. And they’re not good. I woke up to the news yesterday that SEIA had told longtime executive Tom Kimbis that they are moving forward without him. Tom, if you recall, was the interim president at SEIA when Rhone Resch resigned about 2 years ago. He did such a great job during his tenure that I thought he had earned the credentials to keep the job. In recent months, I was worried that Tom would move on from SEIA and had told people that I hope this wouldn’t happen. So imagine my shock (and it takes a lot) when I heard SEIA had laid him off as well as Christopher Mansour. The changes, according to Abby Hopper, are to better align resources with the strategic vision of SEIA. I’ll have more thoughts about this move soon, hoping to sleep on it a bit. For SEIA’s side of the news, make sure to read our coverage. More to come.
Get My Kids An EV Bus. A couple of points I’d like to make here. First, when I spoke to Proterra’s CEO, Ryan Propple, a few months ago, I never considered the inefficiency of buses idling all day why waiting, stopping and sitting in traffic. I also failed to think through the pollution that kids across America are subjected to while riding the Blue Bird. So it is no surprise to me that electric buses make sense everywhere in America. The second point, I am impressed by the idea that ‘friend of the pod’ Jigar Shah and his team had to do a sale-leaseback with BYD to provide electric buses to jurisdictions the entry into an ’offtake’ agreement. Only one major downfall here, I can’t name a single Chinese mode of transportation that I ride. Not my car, not my plane nor my bicycle. When it comes to moving people from point A to point B, Americans don’t ride Made in China. So I’d like to see Proterra electrify Blue Birds across America in a similar transaction. Many reasons why school buses are a great place to start.
Ballot Fights Continue. In Arizona, the ballot initiative to ask voters about expanding the RPS is being challenged. The challenge isn’t in the form of data or arguments on the issue but instead to attack the ballot initiative by claiming that 75% of the signatures are invalid. This is the stuff that bothers me about the legislative process. Argue the issue, not the process, because we all know that a higher RPS is good for the residents of Arizona but the incumbent utilities just can’t handle so much goodness. The Mr. Burns in them won’t allow it.
Take This To Another Branch. While I admit to have been cheering on the lawsuits against oil companies about their disregard for climate change, specifically their knowledge of it decades ago, an NY judge has politely asked the petitioners to take this to the legislature. Maybe it would have been nice to get to more discovery in the judicial process, the judge is right that the legislature should do its job.
Big Storage Sector. Much has been made around battery prices declining over the next few years but the parts and pieces that make energy storage a system are getting attention. The power conversion, both ac-coupled and dc-coupled, is getting manufacturers to design and build some of those system. This is a nice look inside the future of storage from the system level.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 23rd, 2018
$10 Billion Question. “If someone said, ‘Here’s $10 billion to invest in renewables,’ we wouldn’t know how to do it,” Dudley said. That’s a recent statement from the CEO of BP, Robert Dudley. As crazy as this sounds, he’s not wrong. He doesn’t have the cheapest capital and even if he did, it takes a lot of work to properly invest that kind of money into renewables. Just ask any solar developer what they would consider a good year, even if they disregard the hurdle rate of their private equity capital. Even if an oil company came to the US with an energy trading desk willing to take merchant exposure to solar projects, deploying $10 billion or even $1 billion would difficult to do year over year. That’s the scale problem in our industry that is often distributed and fragmented.
Going 100% Solar. What is it going to take to connect large corporate users with solar generation at the solar sites? That’s the question that could be the key in opening up markets like Texas, Pennsylvania or Virginia. Finding off takers is too expensive for individual developers in low energy value markets so if there is a demand created at the corporate level, solar developers will be able to focus on the work they already know.
Subsidies, Bailouts And The ITC. There is no doubt that all energy sources are still getting multiples of the incentives and non-monetary benefits compared to solar. While the big newspapers wonder how incumbent power and utility companies ready themselves for solar’s growth, I wonder how our industry should look forward the next time they want a subsidy, export change or bailout. At the State level, solar does this week (see Illinois and NJ) but what happens at the Federal level now?
Net Metering Fights. Curious to see a utility ‘pondering’ solar growth in a State that has 500% growth when it goes from 10 systems to 50. The opportunity utilities to be different is so great but the mentality of what worked 20 years ago is deeply ingrained into the utility boardroom. Now expect more fights in low solar penetration States like Arkansas, Michigan, etc and the industry needs to step up.
I’m Hiring. If you or someone you know are looking for an inside or outside sales position for a great company in Quick Mount PV, send me an email. We are doing great things including manufacturing right here in Walnut Creek in the Bay Area.
Resi Highlights Continue. As we enter the first residential solar advisory council survey, I will continue to post images of your installs. Just send your with your logo and location and yours can be highlighted as well.
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Yann