This is your SolarWakeup for May 11th, 2018
The payoff. Nathan Arbitman of DSM Advanced Solar was the winner of the SolarWakeup Bracket Challenge for March Madness. Read his post about the work he is doing in today’s top story. Have a great weekend!
The PV Innovation Race is On. Like many of you, I’ve committed my career to the cleantech industry because of the moral imperative to accelerate the clean energy revolution, as well as the unprecedented wealth creation opportunity this transformation brings. And I’m always asking myself, how we can make this transition happen even faster? I joined DSM Advanced Solar, a leading PV technology provider, to create build provocative and powerful partnerships that accelerate value creation in the PV market. DSM is working with partners of all shapes and sizes to drive science-based innovation— how might we work together to accelerate your company’s growth?
Political Chaos Leads To Success. In a different world, Nevada never guts the solar market. There isn’t a deep fight, with lawsuits, that completely annihilates the solar industry. Instead, a settlement is reached that leads to slowdown but things stay in place. Which scenario would have a better solar market today? That’s my question for Connecticut today. How hard are you willing to fight? Politics is a full contact sport, don’t be a spectator.
New Pod. Don’t forget you can get Barry Cinnamon’s podcast, The Energy Show, right here on SolarWakeup.
Need To Explain? Two value of solar reports. Two States. Two Results. Do I really need to tell you why that happens? #utilities
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 10th, 2018
First The Good News. In what could be the biggest solar news in a long time, California is going to require the 65,000 new homes per year in the State to include solar. This could mean between 200MW to 400MW of additional capacity per year of distributed generation that will save consumers money and lower the infrastructure investments that utilities have to do. There is a debate on the cost of the mandate, but as California becomes the 5th largest economy in the world you have to believe that they are doing something correctly.
Talking Heads In Solar. Hats off to Kelly Knutchen from California Solar & Storage Association for joining the 2 on 1 panel on CNBC. The moderator and think tank speaker were big on the mandate talking point. The think tanker clearly threw Kelly for a loop by asking how a homeowner is going to pay for solar upfront if they take a 30 year loan. huh? Watch the 4 minute interview and watch Kelly do a great job representing solar. This is part of the problem in the universe, CNBC still views solar as a subsidized energy source and never mentioned subsidies when covering oil, gas, or utilities.
Losing a NEM Battle. I am not used to writing about NEM battles we, as an industry lose. We lost, temporarily, in Nevada and settled in Arizona. Things in South Carolina looked bad, then good, then bad, now better. In most cases, we had a republican Governor pushing against our industry. I never expected Connecticut to be truly in play but when it comes down to it, solar is a political bargaining chip that Governors will use if they need to and you saw it in play here. After some late night chaos, because solar pros know how to play politics, the State House voted to gut net metering in CT. The question now is what political prize the legislators have to play and what message the Governor gets tainted with when he pitches his environmental bill. This also reminds us all that utilities will sponsor legislators of every size, shape and color to protect their ridiculous monopoly schemes.
Solar Knows No Parties. I don’t know if I buy into this but one study says solar is installed by republicans 5 times more often than democrats. What do you think? Frank’s coverage below.
Resi Solar. Are you a successful residential installer? Is your business growing? I am building out a small group of residential installers to help me keep a pulse on the market and identify the things that matter to you. Of course you will be recognized on the platform and we can enjoy getting to know each other. Let me know if you are interested in this informal advisory council.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 9th, 2018
SEIA’S CT Thoughts. "While we are in favor of legislation that genuinely advances solar energy, we have concerns about this bill. We support stronger renewable portfolio standards, yet it is not clear to what extent the bill would open significant large-scale or community solar markets. And importantly, any approach that doesn't also protect customer choice and provide for reasonable compensation for the value of customer-generated electricity is not acceptable.” - SEIA Press Release
I Called This. When Tom Werner wants to retire, I’m ready to step in. SunPower is leaving utility scale and focusing on distributed generation. It’s been clear to me and I believe this to be the correct move for SunPower given the market share and value proposition that the company has through its dealer network. Also with Tom Starrs leaving the SEPA board to focus on his SEIA position, this aligns the values with corporate goals. I wonder if my next strategic assumption becomes true as well.
Ratebased Utility Solar. Tampa Electric customers are seeing an increase to their bills because of a solar farm. This is part of the rate base due to the utility investing its shareholder capital for the project, a 600MW plant. Think of the developers that would come in and bid this deal, imagine TECO signing up 10, 60MW, projects. If the company signed a PPA, it wouldn’t require rate base and therefore likely not increase the bills to consumers. But then TECO shareholders wouldn’t get double digit returns either.
There’s A Better Way. I spoke with the CEO of Connexus Energy last week, he describes the better way of adding value to consumers. Maybe we need to change all IOUs to member owned cooperatives.
Everyone Wants EVs. AAA says that 1 in 5 Americans is looking to buy an EV as their next car. Tesla shorts will begin shaking in their space boots once again.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 8th, 2018
Hello? Anyone Watching CT? The CT Senate has passed the controversial net metering bill that will turn the NEM policy into a sell all scheme. It is now up to the CT House to do the right thing and kill this portion of the bill. One State Senator had the audacity to call solar “ugly” after speaking on solar’s behalf at the solar rally just a few weeks ago. This is becoming a frustrating situation given the lack of attention this is getting nationally with the local companies struggling to show the national outrage that this should cause. There is a press release issued by active solar companies and trade groups with notable entities missing from this release or having their own. I will repeat myself. Net metering is the most important issue for solar nationally, regardless of the market you participate in. If you develop PURPA or RPS deals, you want a net metering policy in place because that is the grassroots support for solar you need from customers.
Was It All For Nothing? There are several reports of Suniva asking the bankruptcy court to allow it to sell the equipment it owns. This essentially spells the end of the manufacturing entity that could have been acquired to make premium cells within the US. With a large need for tariff free cells, this was believed to be the avenue to relief for SQN. If anything, it now seems that interested buyers will be looking to buy the capability without the corporate entity. At this point it seems like none of those exits are going to happen and it will all have been for nothing except for causing heartache to the solar industry.
Solar On Every Home. California is implementing its new building energy codes which push the envelope on net zero homes. All new homes will have to include efficiency and solar features to push cumulative consumption to zero. Some builders had voiced concerns that on efficiency alone, the code could be met but alas the solar requirement will remain. As we pick up speed on residential solar, we must remember the key for installers and financiers and that is a happy homeowner. Positive reviews and customer referrals are the best marketing and if you install it improperly, causing roof leaks, you will not have a happy customer and you will spend money fixing the leak. Going cheap on the install will always come back to bite you, install the right products the right way and ensure no roof leaks.
Don’t Assume The Inevitable. It was long thought that net metering changes would drive value towards the fixed demand charge section of the energy bill. For years, the general thought was that if NEM changes are made, energy storage would become that much more cost effective. Of course that is much more nuanced now that storage is cost effective and NEM changes are either focused on non-bypassable charges or time shifts that require too much storage to make financial sense. The solar adversaries play a long game, don’t underestimate them.
The Florida Story. It’s not going away, there is a lot going on with multiple story lines that will intersect. If you have any documents or information about the various solar RFPs in Florida, please send me an email.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 7th, 2018
Over the past few weeks, a lot of the dialogue has been about my comments about utilities joining SEIA in some fashion. And this article summarizes my primary opposition to ANY utility involvement in our trade association and the trend continues in today’s news stories. I want you all to know that I am not sitting here throwing stones to stir things up, I am sincerely hoping for the industry to go into the direction that I believe is in all of our best interests. I want every solar company and trade group to be successful and thrive.
Why Utilities Matter. Here are the talking points from the Duke Energy President in South Carolina. “Duke has invested $6billion in renewables.” “Duke is anti-subsidy.” “Net metering is a subsidy.” All three comments are either outright false, misleading or intellectually dishonest. Taking an oped and trying to drive a wedge into public support by misleading the reader bothers me. Duke may have invested $6billion into renewables but did so mostly through its deregulated subsidiaries because they were allowed to compete. Duke is not anti-subsidy, because if they were they would not saddle their ratepayers with power plant risks, early cost recovery for unbuilt plants and fuel cost risk. Is this a company that you believe would have a voice in your trade groups that advances your business?
The Florida Solar Swamp. First the good news. Frank speaks with Sunnova’s CEO about their announcement to enter the Florida market. This comes on the heels of Sunrun taking the leap of faith and asking the PSC for a declaratory statement. More competition on residential solar will be good for a State like Florida where almost every homeowner wants solar. Keep your eyes on the adoption rate, it will surprise you. On the other hand, we have the start of a giant shady deal in Central Florida. The Florida municipal power companies have contracted in a PPA with NextEra on a 225MW transaction, made up of three 75MW solar farms. We will be looking into this in much greater deal but here is what we know already. Only 7 developers were invited to bid, this was not an open RFP. Of those 7, only two were invited to negotiate and they were not the lowest bidders according to sources. It may also be true that NextEra used FPL’s solar farms, which are paid for using rate base, as a statement of qualifications to win this deal. That raises all sorts of monopoly/deregulation firewall alarm bells. It is also very likely that NextEra has a PPA rate for FMPA lower than the cost of solar to FPL customers in the monopoly rate based solar. This makes my point for me that rate based solar should be put out for bid because the private market because competition is good for everyone. More on this soon, but it’s shady thus far.
Who Cares About NEM? The CT net metering fight worries me. From a press perspective, the media coverage of it has been slim to none. If my inbox is an indication, it almost appears that some groups have given up on the net metering fight in a State that sends an all blue congressional delegation to Washington DC. We can’t just worry about legislation that fixes a state solar market, we have to attack the markets and stop them from taking away the number 1 core value for any solar advocate, full retail rate net metering. Net metering is the rising tide in solar, without it, forget getting the support for interconnection processes that enable large scale RPS or PURPA markets.
Deep Energy State. I indulge in some tv watching and Madam Secretary is one of those Sunday night DVR specials. Normally I pay half attention as I type this newsletter but last week, I sat in awe as the natural gas CEO was in the Secretary of State’s office arguing against renewables and nuclear. Put aside the renewables piece, this was a lobbied influence campaign between natural gas and nuclear as they both argued to be the transition plan. Imagine playing the public influence campaign so thoroughly that you are pitching tv writers on your talking points.
NY ISO ‘Loves’ Solar. First, it’s the lightbulbs. Second, blaming solar for demand reduction is exactly why people consider net metering a subsidy. Demand reduction reduces the cost of infrastructure to ratepayers and therefore is a network benefit.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 4th, 2018
I hope you have a great weekend. Stay tuned for info about SolarWakeup Live! Chicago, the event you will not want to miss. A full day conversation about the hottest market in solar development..
New Podcast, Live! From Midwest Solar Expo. I speak with Greg Ridderbusch, the CEO of Connexus Energy, one of the largest utility cooperatives in the Country. If you want to learn more about the value proposition coops are looking for, listen to this conversation..
South Carolina Turn Around. Looks like SC is going to get a NEM cap increase. Great that it is happening and shows the legislative skills of the solar folks on the ground there. Hopefully it makes it through the State Senate. May the fourth be with us!.
Connecticut NEM Drama. There is very little outrage about this CT NEM attack from the solar industry. The policy is part of the Governor’s plan so if you are hoping for a veto, that is unlikely to occur..
Tariffs Suck. There seems to be a shift in messaging about the tariffs coming from the national trade association. During a panel with SEIA CEO, Abby Hopper, in San Diego this week, a panelist went unchallenged about the tariff impacts. A panelist said the tariffs have caused no disruption to the business but was not asked what could have happened if we were able to buy modules at the global pricing levels. A facebook post by SEIA yesterday did show some pushback about the tariffs and the issues they cause to the industry.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 3rd, 2018
NEM Under Attack In CT. Over the next few days, CT solar advocates will have to fight for the future of solar in Connecticut. This is your reminder that democrats can be just as influenced by utilities as republican legislators. Regulated power companies will control as many State Capitals as they can, which is also a stark reminder to SEIA that bringing utilities onto the membership rolls at SEIA is a very bad idea. The idea in CT is to replace NEM with something more like a feed in tariff. All production would flow to the grid and be repurchased by the solar owner. This is a terrible idea, not needed and just an attempt to reduce the value of solar. Step up and beat this thing back solar!
Forget 2017, What’s Coming Up. As I was manning the microphone in Minneapolis talking about growth in the midwest around community solar, some of you were in San Diego talking about growth in solar. Next time, just come with me to Minnesota and you would have seen it first hand. As expected, community solar is a large growth space in our industry and many states are looking at launching new programs around this. I also expect residential to make big strides, if the NEM fights go in the right direction, due to the homeowner’s continued desires to have solar and more states are making the economics look good.
The Money Play In Politics. The headline is more fun than the story. Solar companies give money to republicans and democrats. If you heard what Mulvaney said last week, money in politics means access to the legislators. If you are looking for administrative help to site a project, move an approval along, etc, then you are sometimes better served to make a few campaign donations. Republicans are also in charge of the House and Senate which means that’s a part of the donating strategy. This is a bit of a to do about nothing.
Dominion Is Losing Its Focus. The Virginia utility, which is interested in buying the troubled South Carolina utility, is out with his power plan going forward. And instead of a ton of solar and storage, it continues the trend of monopolies looking for giant rate base that requires ratepayers to hedge fuel costs for the utility. Will Vote Solar and others fight these projects when they’re requested?
Mercedes Stays Mobile. Mercedes, which I spoke to in an episode of SolarWakeup Live! a few months ago, is leaving home energy storage. The idea was to create a channel for batteries after they are used in the cars. The price declines and technological differences mean that batteries will simply be made for both segments.
SEIA DG Vice Chairs. In the effort of full information. Good solar folks Ed Merrick and Deep Patel are also candidates for the position. All the best to everyone that steps up and helps lead our industry.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 2nd, 2018
Conference Keynote From Rhone Resch. Yesterday, in his first keynote appearance since leaving SEIA, Rhone gave the keynote interview at the Midwest Solar Expo. It was largely tame and focused on his current work to find disruptive technologies in the disruptive solar market, but here are some highlights. Rhone mentions that more trade uncertainty could be on the way including the tariffs on $100billion worth of Chinese imports. He says “solar is getting its butt kicked in DC” and shouldn’t have been “playing defense” while a major tax reform and spending bill were passed, both presenting opportunities for solar to gain. When it comes to the 201 trade case result, he cautions a need to temper the enthusiasm for the 30% result. “This wasn’t a victory”.
More Solar For Florida. You heard it here first. Sources close to Sunnova are telling SolarWakeup that they will be entering the Florida market. This comes behind the positive statement from the PSC for Sunrun on the fixed price lease. While the PSC statement is specific to Sunrun, I don’t expect others to follow suit and request PSC to bless theirs as well. Here is our coverage.
Spruce Exits Loan Business. Yesterday, a well written commentary on Linkedin explained that Spruce had exited the loan business. It mentioned several reasons for the exit which may leave Spruce as a company largely holding a software as its biggest asset. Word has it that an email went out to staff and a few minutes later the portal was shut down to the partners. The finance business can be as tough as the other segments and this shows the results of harsh competition.
Solar Gains More Roots In Minnesota. A 42MW portfolio of solar assets is being marketed to the residential consumers in Minnesota. Resi off takers offer the combination of highest credit values and the benefit of a FICO score. The reason this is news is most have not focused on residential because of the issues related with having this many customers and the cost to acquire them. I expect more retail energy companies to be in this space, surprised we haven’t seen this already.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for Tuesday May1st, 2018
Greetings from Minneapolis, where I am for the Midwest Solar Expo for the next few days.
Biggest Risk (Value) In Rooftop Solar. I started my solar career from roofing so I may be biased but based on conversations I’ve had with installers, there is nothing worse for the customer and the contractor than a roof leak. That’s why the growing contractors are more likely to use higher quality components and sell on those strengths. Now you have a report that shows that selling quality means more sales. Put yourself in the clients shoes, what matters more than a leaking roof? That’s gotta get fixed before anything else, including solar production. How do you differentiate yourself from the competition when it comes to quality? I want to hear from you.
SEIA DG Votes. If you are a member of SEIA, voting is open for the DG committee. My friend, Costa Nicolaou, is running for Vice Chair and I’d highly recommend him for the role. When it comes to quality (see above), Costa is a solar leader on the issue and worthy of your vote.
Low Income IREC Report. Who doesn’t love a good IREC report? This goes in line with the latest topic about the scale of the low income solar market. Especially when combined with community solar, the certainty of solar costs is very attractive to people on fixed or low incomes.
Climate Change Outlook. This is really bleak and disturbing but it’s up to our generation to do something about this. Quite frankly what that means is our generation needs to take control of the political and regulatory system. I’m sorry but it’s time for the boomers to give up the gavel because we’re running out of time to do the right thing.
Illinois Is Coming Up. SolarWakeup Live! is coming to Chicago to talk about Illinois solar market developments at the end of June. We will be announcing the date by next week so you can plan your travel. Get your sponsorship budgets ready because this is a market entry event you will not want to miss.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for April 30th, 2018
Jumping on a flight to Minneapolis for Midwest Solar Expo. I’ll be interviewing the CEO of a co-op, hope you can join me.
An Opportunity Missed In Michigan. Michigan PSC voted to allow the DTE natural gas plant to proceed, maintaining the status quo. Imaging the opposite decision had been made and the new energy economy would have started to sprout in Michigan. I’m proud of the work that was done by solar advocates to make this an issue, I hope this happens on every sitting plan going forward.
Yes, So What. All new supply chains have their issues and the energy storage industry isn’t much different. All hardware is going to have an inherent carbon cost and one using mined materials is even worse. But to assume that there is a price too high for the value that batteries will provide to the energy space isn’t in play for me right now. Storage will do amazing things especially as we drive the price down.
Definitely Watch This. A couple of time-lapse images of ultra large solar farms in China. Worth a watch.
Can We Discuss ITC Yet? The ITC step downs are on the horizon, already being modeled in solar development and affecting solar plus storage installs. All at the same time where oil and gas will continue to benefit from exploration credits and more importantly the active tax credit rules whereas solar has to play with passive liabilities only. Solar should drop down the tax credit when, and only when, all other energy sources lose their credit as well.
Minnesota. Tomorrow I moderate a discussion with solar leaders about the impact that the 201 and steel tariffs have had on the solar industry. What do you want to hear during this discussion?
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Yann