This is your SolarWakeup for December 17th, 2018
Creating Known Unknowns. In the latest SolarWakeup Live! conversation I speak with Gabe Philips, a college classmate of mine and an experienced energy trader. In fact, he traded electricity generated from a solar farm I developed and built in the past. We hear about power markets with corporate offtake all the time and deals in PJM, ERCOT and CAISO are announced all the time. There is a lot to these transactions and that is what Gabe and I spoke about in this Live! conversation.
The Electric Fleet Mobilized. California is taking the solar home mandate and passed the similar version of this for transit buses. 25% of buses purchased in 2023 will have to be zero emissions and 100% of those purchased after 2029 will have to follow suit. This means that within about 20 years, all transit buses will be electric. I like when mandates are slower than what the market will do. Much like solar, electrification of fleets isn’t just something that users want, it also means a deployment of capital. Much like selling solar PPAs to schools, you’ll see companies like Proterra offering electric fleet as a service contracts to school districts across the Country. All of that load will have to be serviced and generation will have to be available, more solar will have to be built.
Cheeeeap Solar. Texas will be the first State to drop PPAs under 2 cents in a big way. First, because storage is harder to pencil with no capacity market and second because it’s so damn cheap to build there. Land is flat and abundant while permitting will be much simpler than other areas.
Consumers Matter. Long Island’s utility (LIPA) is taking up a similar consumer protection policy as the State oversight board. This follows many other States that have also done this. The problem with the policy isn’t that solar can’t meet it, it’s that nobody is paying attention to actually making solar companies follow the rules. I continue to be amazed at some of the junk that is put on people’s roofs and buildings just hoping that a problem 3 or 5 years from now is someone else’s mess to deal with. There are still many homes that have racking installed with no desire to meet roofing best practices or even code compliance, taking advantage of the local inspectors lack of solar knowledge. The industry must do more to protect homeowners and keep bad solar from hurting the industry.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 14th, 2018
Tariff Slowdown. Here’s a hot take. A slowdown doesn’t require the market to actually go down in size. The tariffs can have an impact that drags the market in the negative direction while still allowing the market to grow because solar is doing very well. On the other hand if tariffs weren’t in play, AD/CVD tariffs were gone, and the trade war wasn’t happening, solar would be growing much larger and faster. Anytime these things happen, make sure to listen to people that are actually in the market doing things. Punditry is fun and all but being a full time pundit doesn’t help you with your business. Tariffs are causing executives to have to spend time and money on changing manufacturing locations, figure out new supply chain logistics and dealing with new partners in new places. This drags the market in a direction that none of us like. On the upside, this is the first December that I don’t see a cliff on December 31st. No NEM cap, incentive pool or other regulatory barrier ahead that would hurt a big market right now and that is a positive sign for everyone.
Live! Rewind, Abby Hopper. How much is the right amount of budget for SEIA to do everything they would like to do? Abby answers this and more. Full episode here
Live! Rewind, President Fiordaliso. The New Jersey SREC cap is going to reach the goal sometime in the first quarter of 2019. What does the BPU think is the right approach as the market heads to a brick wall? Fiordaliso answers my question and makes a bold statement. The Conversation Starts Here.
SMA Job Cuts. SMA continues the corporate restructuring including 100 job cuts in Germany, 300 in foreign locations and the sale of the China business unit to the local team. The consolidation in inverters is real and I worry a bit about the market over consolidating while still sustaining massive price pressures.
Weekend. We’ll be heading to the aquarium this weekend, I hope you enjoy your weekend as well! Keep calm and solar on!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 13th, 2018
Hopper On SolarWakeup Live! Abby Hopper is the CEO of SEIA and she joined me on SolarWakeup Live! to talk about the state of the solar industry. She’s been the CEO for an entire solar year, SPI to SPI, and it all started with tariffs. In this conversation we talk about where we are today, what States will take off and how SEIA negotiates for all members, regardless of the segment they operate in. We also talk about the reality of a split government in DC. Listen to the full interview here and make sure to leave a review on iTunes.
Message To Federal Regulators. Don’t miss the conversation with New Jersey’s BPU President, Joseph Fiordaliso. He has a strong message for the federal regulators and we discuss the role that PJM plays within the NJ solar market. I ask about the reality of New Jersey leaving the PJM system. Full conversation available here, hit reply to let me know your thoughts and pass it on to your colleagues.
Elon Continues Charm Offensive. I enjoy Elon on the shows, whether it is Joe Rogan or 60 minutes. He is the right amount of real while staying true to the overarching reasons for his businesses. Every CEO knows that if they fail to execute they will die, even the Walmart CEO keeps a list of the top retailers on his phone (hello Sears!). On the other hand, most CEOs would never tell millions of people that the failure would result in the company failing. 60 minutes is under fire for creative editing to release the full interview, this comes from the fact that Elon drama gets many clicks and views. I did enjoy Jay Leno’s 60 second pitch for supporting Tesla.
UPS Spends To Lead. This may be the first sponsored post that I rebroadcasting but it is interesting and notable for UPS to spend money to talk about their fleet electrification. Transportation is one of the largest sources of emissions by segment and electrifying fleets across the globe would do great things if solar and wind are there to supply the needed generation.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 12th, 2018
Regulator Talks Policy and Climate Change. Here is the first of the conversations from our sold out event in New Jersey with the President of the BPU, Joseph Fiordaliso. In a conversation that was expected to focus on the regulatory activity in New Jersey (They are busy, and hiring), President Fiordaliso threw me a curveball by speaking in great detail about the reasons behind the important work he is undertaking, climate change. Moreover, he provides some feedback to the folks at DOE and FERC trying to prop up coal and nuclear power plants. Listen to the entire conversation here or on your favorite podcast streaming app.
Q&A With Governor Inslee. The Governor of Washington, Jay Inslee, is proposing a 100% RPS by 2045 and sees it as a legislative priority for the next legislative session. Frank had the opportunity to get some of the most relevant questions answered about the latest initiative to go 100% renewable.
Big Day For Big Name. 8minuteenergy is one of the most well known names in solar development. From the day I started in solar, 8minute was out in California developing these unfathomably large solar projects. As the company puts together a new $200million fund with JP Morgan, I’d like to congratulate Martin Hermann for exiting from the company. His partner announced over the weekend that Martin has been bought out. When people ask me what I wish I’d done in 2006 when I entered solar, I look back at the things Martin was saying at solar conferences because he was more right than anyone else.
Opening Energy Storage. FERC is receiving the filings from grid operators about the Order 841 filed early this year. ISOs and RTOs had to file their plans to implement the order which asked for the enablement of market participation by energy storage systems. More work needs to be done but you can see how this plays out over the next few years.
Explorer, Escalade. Yes, an electric Ford Explorer would be great. Yes, I know that GM doesn’t own Ford. Yes, I got it wrong yesterday, I am sorry! I am glad to see many of you reading the column emailed me to point out my error. I would recommend GM to make an electric Escalade or Tahoe though!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 11th, 2018
Opening Salvo, Permanent ITCs. Senator Schumer is making an opening statement to the Trump administration and it is both interesting and relevant to our work. Schumer may be in the minority but in order to pass any legislation over the next two years, Trump will have to negotiate with Schumer and Pelosi to get it done. Schumer is calling for a massive infrastructure bill with a heavy emphasis on clean energy. One of the specific issues is to make the solar and wind ITCs permanent, which is exactly what I’ve been calling for on SolarWakeup for a decade. More importantly this drives a legislative process where solar tax writers should allow for the ITC to taken against active income, exactly like oil and gas credits. Don’t get excited, this isn’t a bill yet but it means that New York, which is trying to get off the ground with renewables is telling their senior Senator that the ITC is important to them. (Hello from Wall Street)
Looking At Exxon. This is an interesting write up on the solar and wind deal that Exxon executed for their Texan operations. It digs into the ability to get enough renewable on a constrained grid and the competition between gas and coal.
The Chevy Volt. In many ways, the Chevy Volt was the introduction of electric cars to the masses. I know this because it was my first electric car and I dreaded any day that I was driving more than 38 miles and would have to turn on the small engine. Last week, GM announced it was halting the production of the Volt as it is ending its entry level stance for electric vehicles. Yes, the Volt was the right car at the right time but now it’s time for GM to lean in and produce all electric vehicles and they should start with the Ford Explorer. Not all EVs need to be electric looking, let’s put a big skateboard of batteries under the existing chassis and give people what they want.
Dominion Must Try Again. Dominion has been told by Virginia regulators that they need to resubmit their IRP after producing a filing that overestimated load and didn’t consider the impacts of State legislation. As you will hear in a podcast recording this week with the NJ BPU President, regulators are no longer rubber stamping the filings by monopolies and making sure that the policies are well implemented.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 10th, 2018
2019. I’ve decided that you’re early Christmas present is a binging of the SolarWakeup Live Jersey City conversations which will drop at some point this week. All 7 conversations will be available on the SolarWakeup Live podcast this week. More importantly, in 2019 I will be mixing my day job and SolarWakeup a bit more by opening the studio for conversations at the Quick Mount offices. I’ve been spending the past 6 months inviting solar leaders to our manufacturing plant and many are coming in the new year. At the same time we plan on recording those conversations on site. This is an exciting combination of both of my passions and look forward to hearing about the good ideas you have to discuss. Come visit me in Walnut Creek, California!
You Are Not Welcome. The US joined Russia, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia not to join the UN climate report at COP24. This is a statement of the era we are in that is hoping to return to the 20th century as opposed to the reality that is required for the rest of the 21st Century.
No Clean Air For You. Newly situated EPA administrator, Andrew Wheeler, is doing the important work of lifting environmental regulations for coal plants. This is part of the Trump plan to bring coal back to life but in reality will do absolutely nothing to do such a thing given that the cost to operate coal plants is no longer viable. The EPA should ask this question to the VP’s staff with contacts in Indiana.
GM Blowback. Trump tweeted last week that GM should lose its EV tax credits for closing the manufacturing plants. Last night, Elon Musk told 60 Minutes that he may be interested in acquiring those plants. Elon also spoke some hard truth to the SEC in this clip.
PG&E Legislative Forecast. It is almost certain that PG&E will be in Sacramento this year asking for a bailout for the fires in Paradise/Chico which also caused my kids to visit the doctor. The more relevant question is what will the solar industry be asking for when PG&E advances their bailout bill. Our job isn’t to have a feeling for their ask but to put a price on the legislation for the solar industry. I have my price, would be interested to hear what you would ask for.
Labor In Solar. Minnesota (and other States) solar companies are restricted in growth by their ability to hire qualified labor. It is a great opportunity to open the solar industry to others that are training or can be trained to be helpful to the solar industry.
Facebook Not Building Community. Another sample of the corporate Facebook focus on their data center energy supply without growing the market where they are investing. More importantly, their employees aren’t increasing their ability to go solar while working at the local building either.
Huawei Situation. Don’t under appreciate the impact of the Huawei CFO situation as it pertains to the trade negotiations between the US and China. There are very real tariffs on the table that are increasing the cost of your racking, inverter and modules supply.
Diversify Now. Abby Hopper of SEIA is leaning in on diversity with good reason. While solar is doing a good job on diversity and veteran hiring, it could be doing so much better. More importantly, we are more open to being better than the status quo. I go back to the Vote Solar Equinox event in DC when a very non-diverse room welcomed speakers on the environmental justice topic. As the solar industry diversities it will also grow the market, both are undoubtedly linked.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 7th, 2018
Have a great weekend, no column today as I hosted a Hannukah party last night and Decoy won out! See you on Monday.
Make sure to check out the Q&A from Frank about the California solar home mandate and some of the top stories of the day!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 6th, 2018
Home Solar Moves Forward. California has moved the home solar mandate forward as they plan for the implementation. The Building Standards Commission has taken the necessary step to allow the rule to start on January 1, 2020.
Carbon Free, Not Clean Energy. Looking at the Xcel Energy announcement, my first two thoughts. 100% carbon free doesn’t mean 100% clean energy, Vox should know better to distinguish this. Secondly, what is the plan to execute on this? Is the hope that Xcel will own all of the assets or create an environment for distributed generation to thrive?
Behind the Scenes. Frank goes behind the scenes on the SESA PR and SEIA coming together with a Q&A with PJ Wilson to discuss the news.
Solar In DC. SEIA is hosting a summit in DC and interviewing members of Congress including Senator Whitehouse (D-RI). Reports from inside the room speak to the support that solar has at the baseline level across demographics and party lines. Many of the quotes do appear to make this a bit of the echo chamber except for the talk that solar should push for the ITC to be expanded to storage. I see this as a potential starting block for the ITC to be extended once again. More on that to come.
Huawei Breaking News. The news broke late last night that the CFO of Huawei Technologies was detained in Canada, potentially at the request of the US. Reports have it that the US is considering Huawei as a national security risk and could create a sub plot to the tariff talks and newly found truce. This isn’t a solar direct story but has enough potential impact that is a regulatory risk for the solar market participants.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 5th, 2018
SEIA Adds Affiliate. SEIA has joined forces with SESA-PR, the solar and storage association chapter in Puerto Rico, as an official affiliate. This is largely different than many State chapter SEIAs that are not actually affiliated with the national group. Some however have taken strides to get closer to SEIA for various reasons. It makes me wonder if there is a purposeful move to join forces given there has been criticism of the relationship the national SEIA has had with some State chapters. Largely the relationships are fruitful and mutually beneficial but there are outlier cases where an affiliate status would allow some disagreements to be handled internally instead of in a public domain or filing.
Maersk Abandons Fossil Fuels. The shipping giant is out with a pledge to cut emissions to zero by 2050. This is a giant statement given they transport 20% (1 in 5) sea going containers. Hard to imaging how this will be executed but you could imagine electric ships of some sort cruising the world’s oceans. Maersk’s COO tells the Financial Times, “We will have to abandon fossil fuels. We will have to find a different type of fuel or a different way to power our assets. This is not just another cost-cutting exercise. It’s far from that. It’s an existential exercise, where we as a company need to set ourselves apart.”
Xcel Sets Own RPS. The midwest utility which is known for its major coverage in Colorado and Minnesota is looking to be 100% carbon-free electricity by 2050. Short on details but highlighting the goal is intriguing given the potential for solar growth in Colorado and the hopes that Minnesota continues to grow. Becky Stanfield and Jessica Scott of Vote Solar react, “Showing the region and the nation that 100% carbon free is possible and the right choice for health, jobs and leaving a better world for our children. We look forward to working with Xcel and state regulators to help meet those bold but achievable targets in a way that is affordable, reliable and puts people first."
New Home Solar Means More Solar. Policies like California’s new home solar mandate would triple the residential solar market by 2045. The key is the customer acquisition and scale of construction. A home being built doesn’t have the same hurdle to sell through especially if the home is built with solar before anyone owns it. With homebuilders choosing top quality products and buying at scale, this drives the price down and makes the installation more efficient. Lastly, when the cost is put into a mortgage the payments are significantly lower than when solar is installed at a later date.
Audi Joins EV Party. The company is investing $16billion to build out its electric and autonomous vehicle fleet. In other words, the company is ensuring survival by making cars that buyers/users will require from OEMs. I’m waiting for one of these firms to reach out of the auto market to invest in a solar type company, I think the day is coming.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 4th, 2018
Do You Vote Solar? Last evening some of the biggest solar supporters came together to celebrate Vote Solar and the entire team of passionate solar advocates. There are few teams that have done so much, so quietly to advance our market. We had some fun talking about past victories that are the foundation of solar markets across the Country. So I raise my glass for a toast for Vote Solar and all solar advocates that do the policy work that allows installers to sell solar to homeowners and creates the market that creates my job. Without the policies that enable our market, most of us would be doing other work.
Reality Of Nuclear. Every few months there seems to be a nuclear should make a comeback for the sake of fighting climate change. This storyline seems a bit tired given that it’s been used for years. It is ingrained in so many higher education institutions and think tanks studying the issue. I understand the argument but the political reality is that nobody looking to fight climate change is leaning in on nuclear. I will hear from some of you that the portfolio has to include nuclear but I am here to tell you that the market has moved on. One small pet peeve, calling renewables ‘buoyed by subsidies’ while arguing for nuclear is laughable. Without early cost recovery and government subsidized insurance, water and waste, nuclear would be non-existent.
Has COP Lost The Luster? COP24 has started and if I wasn’t following the Solar Impulse team on social media, I wouldn’t know. First, it’s in Poland which hasn’t exactly been the leader in climate policy. Second, without the US leading the marketing of it in the US media, it seems to be lacking any coverage at all. As an aside, various forms of renewables shouldn’t put other forms down in order to gain an edge, there are plenty of antagonists to focus on.
Green New Deal et al. New leaders in Congress have surprised me with the pedestal that the green new deal has been placed on as one of the signature areas of focus going into the new Congress. Ocasio-Cortez, who is humanizing the role of member of Congress in a great way, has been actively pushing for co-sponsors and ignoring the ‘freshmen members stay quiet’ status quo. I look forward to speaking with co-sponsors of the bill and understand how the pivot from macro, big idea like green new deal can leverage the political power that solar has within the voting public.
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Yann