March Madness. Everyone’s dream is to write these words, I know. Now you have two different chances to do that. SolarWakeup is having the 1st annual March Madness bracket challenge and it’s free. Go to ESPN Tournament Challenge and search for SolarWakeup group. The password is GoSolar. The more folks we have, the more fun we will have. The winner gets to write the opening paragraph and promote their agenda, company or cause.
Playing The Headlines. Trump is playing the headline game and calling his solar tax a success. He did this a day after experienced R&D employees at SunPower were told of a cut in their departments. In a year of the solar coaster costing jobs across the market, Trump has the audacity to call his joke of a tax helpful in creating jobs. If he really wanted to create jobs there were ways to accomplish that more effectively.
Generation Outlook. There are a bunch of 2030 predictions about EVs and storage growth. I also agree that batteries alone will not help the change in the generation profile. What do you think the electric generation profile looks like in 12 years? Clearly for every GW of coal that gets shut down, new generation needs to take its place. I’m optimistic that renewables can make up all or most of the energy needs, even with the headwinds on the regulations like PURPA that are supposed to be helpful in accomplishing this.
1603 Problems. IRS Is One. NextEra is still fighting the IRS on 1603 valuations. Anyone else in solar still going through this or is this the last of them?
State Plays. One of the biggest State fights right now is around PURPA. And one of the most effective advocates on the issue is Vote Solar. In a few weeks you get to take part of their annual fundraiser to help them do more for you. Entire planes from North Carolina, Oregon, Utah and more should be heading to Equinox with giant checks payable to Vote Solar. If your company has the means to sponsor the event, please let me know and I will connect you. Also if you buy $1,000 worth of tickets and send me the receipt, you get to write a paragraph on this platform. Event details here.
Wakeup San Francisco. The first speaker confirmed for SolarWakeup Live! in San Francisco is Danny Kennedy of CalCEF. In a few days, they are closing their latest CalSEED program and helping clean tech startups get off the ground. Danny is always an amazing conversation with a great view of the sector from both sides the table. Get your tickets here.
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Yann
201 Woes. SunPower is cutting jobs. As a premium, high efficiency module, SunPower took a disproportionate hit from the 201 tariffs. Premium modules, with higher prices, get a 30% tariff that is more $/watt than a mass-market poly module. There are business impacts affecting the company as well, given that its utility scale segment was suffering from low margins and First Solar’s series 6 is taking a bite out of the efficiency advantage. SunPower must be talking internally about focusing on the C&I and residential markets by owning the dominant market share in those markets. That’s what I would do if I were them, great supply chains into dealers with a suite of financing options that make deals go forward. Solar is hard enough and being all things to all segments is too difficult.
Improving Conferences. I want to take you behind the scenes for a moment. SolarWakeup Live is a concept that comes out of 10 years attending and speaking at conferences and conventions. It’s true that there is a solar conference every single week of the year now and adding more seems odd but we have to change the way we’re doing it. Starting with the $1,000 entry fees and the 3-4 speakers per panel. Getting more than 3 answers into a panel is considered a good panel and I doubt that the attendees get much out of them. My goal is to get 1,000 folks into an auditorium for a day of 1 on 1 discussions for an entry fee under $100. We’re on track for that. After three events, SolarWakeup Live! has grown into a half day of discussions with 150 people in the room at sub $100. I’ve done interviews with one or two panelists with varying degrees of feedback and kept production costs low in order to make it work. Thus far the reviews speak highly of the content and networking with desire for more traditional venue amenities. San Francisco is the next location because it’s the most dense geography of SolarWakeup readership and our first event on the West Coast.
Community Solar. Nice reporting from Frank Andorka on the changes in New York on the size of community solar within the regulations. Moving the plants from 2mw to 5mw is a big move, allows for some fixed costs to be spread over bigger sites and greater cost efficiencies.
Reducing Pollution. I sense a shift in California. The energy rates, even when demand charges make up a large part, customer demands and environmental requirements mean corporations are looking for ways to re-tool their energy supply. With the cost of solar, solar carports, and energy storage dropping, it makes sense for every business to look for ways to execute a change in this. Financing options are also more apparent for them. PPAs remain available if the balance sheets work, PACE is almost everywhere in the State and new portfolio approaches are making the merge of efficiency and generation possible.
Big Week At SolarWakeup. I’ll be in San Francisco on Wednesday talking energy storage development, contracts and business models and ending the day at the CalSSA reception in Sacramento. On Thursday, I head to Walnut Creek for a special screening of Solar Roots - The Pioneers of PV at the QuickMount PV, the leader of residential solar mounts and rails.
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Yann
Join Me In San Francisco. I’m excited about this conversation in San Francisco. After a rollercoaster ride in 2017 with 201 and tax reform hanging over our sector most of the year, time for big money to get deployed in 2018. Whether it comes in the form of pension funds, large acquisitions or for the C&I market to finally grow with PACE across the Country, these are the topics you’ll hear about at the event. If you have any exciting ideas for speakers, please let me know. Reserve your seat here.
NJ Dealmaking. Good news from New Jersey now that the new administration has taken over. There was an RPS fix bill sitting by itself and the solar community found a play to make to get it attached to another piece of legislation, Senate Bill 877. It will increase the solar carveout and add significant energy storage capacity as well. NJ has long been the place to develop projects and it’s been tough in recent years. With this fix, addition of storage revenue streams and PACE coming up at the same time, look to NJ to be another great place to be for the solar community.
Take The Path Good For Solar. In politics, there are often strange bedfellows. In this case, there was a nuclear bailout/subsidy bill that had the momentum to make it through the legislature. When you have legislation that you want passed, you seek out this momentum and attach yourself to it. I know many people view this as bad since we are into fusion of the solar type but that’s not the right way of looking at it. Don’t blame the solar advocates either, their job was to pass a bill to fix the solar carve out and they did. Much like the ITC getting extended in a deal to remove the oil export embargo, solar wins in the end.
Bigger Community Solar. New York is increasing the community solar cap to 5mw from 2mw, which is a great move and makes a big difference in a time where the VDERs make it tough to pencil. Great job to New York regulators and advocates.
Sponsor This Space. As you saw over the past few months, sponsors of the Live! events get space in the newsletter, website and the text area to tell their story. Time is now to get involved for the SolarWakeup Live! event in San Francisco. So build your landing page and get your message out to the people in solar that read this newsletter. I bet you can name the New York sponsors, so email me to talk about your sponsorship.
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Yann
BP, Red Team vs Blue Team. I’ve read through BP’s Energy Outlook and have a few thoughts before digging into two particular details. First, I am surprised they even put this out since they know that people and markets will disagree. Some startups will jump for joy at the stats and plug it into their decks while others will laugh at the aging dinosaur going its own way. Second, this is their own investor deck. They are telling their investors what their version of the future looks like and why they are making certain investments outside of oil. Lastly, this is a poorly disguised analysis. If they had wanted the report to be viewed as other than corporate playbook they should have had an internal debate on each view. For greater transparency let the dissenting team publish their view alongside.
BP, Electric Cars. Cars staying on oil based fuels is good for BP which would make you think that they will take a conservative view on how many EVs hit the road. BUT, BP has an estimate of 15% of the cars in 2040 being EVs. I know there are fringe cases about cars in developing countries and island economies where estimates don’t see a large use case for EVs and we live in a bubble here in the US. That being said, as an EV driver for the past 6 years, there is zero chance that 15% is within a 10% margin of error and that is just based on common sense. On the other hand, what would BP investors say if BP came out and said 75% of cars will be EV in 20 years.
BP, Cost of Solar. BP sees cost of solar at $0.06 per kWh in 2020 leveling down to $0.05/kWh by 2040. I feel like that there is no explanation needed here. Consider this however, 9 months ago BP issued 11 year bonds at a 1.637% interest rate, which is lower than the US Government 10 year today.
Australia’s RPS Coming? The Labor party in Australia is hoping to get a 75% renewable energy target by 2025 with a clean peak standard of 25% equating to about 750MW of energy storage.
It’s All Fake News. Interesting to see the online platforms that allow for grassroots activism to come out in favor of an issue are now essentially tools that don’t really require any people. Much like voting going back to paper ballots, it will become common for grassroots to urge hand written notes once again. These emails, online comments like we see during the SCANA debate, are likely being ignored.
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Yann