The LFP Scale Up. Samsung is building out their domestic LFP production and already highlights that demand will outpace their capacity which is a reasonable start to take. There is an overlap of the demand between the auto and energy sectors and finding the volumes that will drive pricing and cost structures. The trade cases will also come to the storage market, which will surely take some time to find a rationalization as well. 

FCC Part 1 of Many. Hard to consider the FCC rule that defines everything. I’ve spoken to several executives that feel fine with what was issued from their side but when I speak to asset owners, they’re a bit more worried about replacements, firmware updates etc. My highlight is that this is likely to extend to storage and those software components in the EMS and BMS. Both of which would well to be expected to be included in the near future. On the market altering side, Some developers are wondering how the interconnection procedures will adapt to the rule and how it will be enforced at that level. 

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Yann


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Inverter Rule Deployed. Just as I wrote about my concerns on the inverters, the FCC came out with a rule about inverter production. Somewhat going further than I expected in that it ‘bans’ all countries of origin but then limits it to ‘new models’. Having heard some experts on what this could mean and how it rolls out, there is room for interpretation on how bad and impactful this could be. More to come. 

How This Happened. I am not going to name names but this came from domestic inverter suppliers that aggressively pursued this rule, hence why it’s both big and not really immediate at the same time. The reality is that this was a way to promote the sale of the company, i.e. increase the value during the sale process and make a compelling case for domestic supply chain. Problematic is that the domestic assembly of these products isn’t scaled and trying to do it quickly is going to lead to quality issues, potentially. 

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Yann