Home » Archives for Frank Andorka » Page 87

Jinko Solar’s Incredibly Shrinking Jacksonville Factory

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

What Happened: Wow. Just. Wow. Jinko Solar’s investment in Jacksonville, Florida, just keeps getting smaller with each passing story, having fallen from initial reports of more than $400 million in local investment and more than 800 jobs.

In three months, the level of investment from the Chinese solar module manufacturer has fallen from $410 million to $50 million (an 88% decrease).
Meanwhile, the city keeps throwing more money at the module manufacturer. Having initially approved slightly more than $23 million in incentives, they approved nearly $3.5 million last week.
So for those of you keeping score at home: Jinko is now going to invest around $50 million in the factory, while the city and state are still investing around $57 million. That’s a 16% return – not bad for not doing any visible work, is it?

SolarWakeup’s View: You have to wonder whether poor Jacksonville, Florida, has caught on yet to the fact that they are the victim of a long con, being masterfully orchestrated from China by Jinko Solar.

Back in January – January 19, in fact – I broke the story that Jinko Solar was in negotiations with the city (under the clever pseudonym “Project Volt,” which to be fair should have been the name of a Chevy plant, not Jinko) to build a $410 million factory in the city and hire nearly 800 people. Five days later, the city council approved its $23 million portion of what is supposed to be a $54 million state/city incentive package to bring this stalwart of solar module manufacturing to the city.

Ever since then, Jinko has been cagey about the investment, even after confirming its involvement obliquely in a throwaway line in a press release. And more recent reporting has said that Jinko has cut its investment by 88% to $50 million, while there has been no reporting that the city/state incentive package has gone down at all. In fact, as I mentioned above, the city threw nearly $4 million more at the deal just last week.

[wds id=”3″]

If it were me, I’d stop throwing money at this deal until Jinko has at least broken ground on the factory. I mean, the most recent reporting is that this factory is primarily being built to service a NextEra contract for up to 2.75 gigawatts of PV over four years and employ only 200 people. What happens if after that four years, Jinko doesn’t get another contract?

But here’s the central point I want to make: People (and they know who they are) were peddling the Jinko story as the first trickle of a flood of Chinese module manufacturers were going to rush to the United States in light of President* Trump’s tariff decision in January, which (according to this narrative) would lead to a rebirth of U.S. solar module manufacturing.

You might hold up planning that renaissance party you’ve been planning.

In recent weeks, we’ve seen this Jinko deal shrink, and we’ve seen moves by Suniva’s largest creditor that indicate they’re getting ready to sell that company off for parts. And don’t get me started on all the bizarre news out of SolarWorld.

This factory is looking less like a harbinger of better times than a coal-mine canary, post leak.

More:

JinkoSolar Confirms $50M Investment in US Factory to Make Tariff-Free Solar Panels

Renewables, FTW! Price Drops Send Natural Gas Reeling

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

What Happened: For. The. Win. A new report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance suggests renewables’ prices are falling so quickly that coal is dead and even natural gas may be on its deathbed.

The cost of new solar plants dropped 20% over the past 12 months, while onshore wind prices dropped 12%, according to the latest Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) report.
Since 2010, the prices for lithium-ion batteries — crucial to energy storage — have plummeted a stunning 79 percent, the report also indicates.
The kill quote: “The economic case for building new coal and gas capacity is crumbling,” as BNEF’s chief of energy economics, Elena Giannakopoulou, told Bloomberg.

How long will the blue flame of natural gas continue to burn as an alternative to fossil fuels? If Bloomberg New Energy Finance is right, not much longer.

SolarWakeup’s View: Lookie here – it seems like I might be right about a thing.

Let’s back up for a second. On Monday, I wrote about the theory that renewables may be falling in price so quickly that natural gas, long touted as the most effective “transition energy,” might be surpassed by renewables soon. As evidence, I cited recent decisions in California’s and Arizona’s regulatory bodies to deny utilities the right to build new peaker natural gas plants as evidence. And near the end, I wrote this:

Energy storage is the key. As the technology gets better and the prices come down, the need for a transition energy like natural gas becomes increasingly less important.

And four days later, Think Progress alerted me to a new Bloomberg New Energy Finance report that said, well, nearly exactly that.

[wds id=”3″]

(In case you’re headed to Vegas, I predict the Cleveland Browns are going to win the 2019 Super Bowl, and Tyrod Taylor will be its MVP. Remember you read it here first.)

As I read Think Progress’ story, this quotation just leaped off the page:

“The economic case for building new coal and gas capacity is crumbling,” as BNEF’s chief of energy economics, Elena Giannakopoulou, told Bloomberg.

Incredible, right? I started writing about solar in 2011, and you could never have convinced then me that by 2018 we might already be “Bye, Felicia”-ing natural gas into history. (Which, as an aside, makes promises to “save coal” or “revive coal” even more ludicrous, but I digress.)

So here’s to natural gas who, I presume, will desperately try to hang on to its 15 minutes of fame by hook-and-crook – but ultimately, in the not-too-distant future, it will end up in the ash heap of history.

Bye, natural gas.

More:

Will Natural Gas Lose Its Place As A Transition Energy?

Stunning drops in solar, wind costs mean economic case for coal, gas is ‘crumbling’

Bonus:

I love etymological videos. For those of you who don’t know, here’s the etymology of “Bye, Felicia.”

Jeff Flake Doesn’t Understand Baseload Power

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

What Happened: People, I know he’s darn purty, but seriously, if you care about the future of energy in this country DO NOT think Jeff Flake is a 2020 savior, no matter what Sean Penn tells you. He doesn’t even understand the basics of energy baseload.

In a recent speech at St. Anselm College’s New Hampshire Institute of Politics, in what was widely reported as the first speech of the 2020 Presidential campaign, Arizona (Short-Time) Senator Jeff Flake said that maybe, just MAYBE, the Republican Party should consider accepting climate change science and consider doing something about it.
But before you give him a standing ovation, in literally the next breath – the next breath – Flake insisted, all evidence to the contrary, that the country needs more nuclear power as “baseload” power if we’re going to have more renewables added to the grid.
(*Ring, ring* Senator Flake? It’s Germany. They’d like to explain how they were able to add wind and solar and still commit to shutting down all their nuclear plants by 2022.)
(On the plus side, he pronounced nuclear right.)

SolarWakeup’s View: So Senator Jeff Flake, who is leaving the Senate in November because of the “divisiveness” of Washington politics in the age of President Donald J. Trump, went up to New Hampshire’s St. Anselm College last Friday to discuss said divisiveness and, as mentioned above, reportedly launch a 2020 Presidential campaign.

That would have been largely unremarkable, even for a political junkie like me. But then a woman, in the last question of the session, asked this:

“Do you see a path forward on climate change?”

And at that moment, Flake would have done well to heed Mark Twain and kept his mouth shut. But he just had to weigh in.

He started off OK, talking about how great solar has been in Arizona and how increased energy storage (particularly utility-scale storage) is offering market-based opportunities that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago. He added that it might also be a nice change for the Republican Party to accept that climate change is real and maybe try to do something about it. And if he’d just stopped there…..but, well, he just couldn’t.

Democrats, he says, need to accept that the United States needs a carbon-free baseload power source and – wait for it – nuclear power is the answer.

Oh, Jeff – you were this close.

See, here’s the thing: Not only is “baseload” an increasingly irrelevant term in a world of electricity storage – something you had just praised seconds ago – but even if that were a true thing, nuclear is definitively not the answer (at least not new nuclear power plants).

[wds id=”3″]

I live in Ohio, and I am still paying for the Perry and the Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plants built around 30 years ago through my electricity rates – and that’s after Davis-Besse’s containment cap started to rust away, forcing the plant to shut down for a year to get it fixed. They are expensive, they take a long time to build and they are dangerous.

(Ask me sometime about the story I once wrote about Davis-Besse’s advice to its neighbors in case of a meltdown – advice that included long sleeves, sunglasses and a hat).

And sometimes, even when you throw billions of dollars at these plants, they still don’t get built (South Carolina anyone?).

Look, I know Jeff Flake looks the part, but if he thinks nuclear power is the answer to bringing more renewables like solar on to the grid, then I’m sorry – he won’t get my vote. He shouldn’t get yours either.

More:

Jeff Flake: The Key To Solar Power Is More Nuclear Power (Sam Seder Podcast)

Jeff Flake delivers ‘Politics and Eggs’ speech (full video of speech; question comes at 45:26) (WMUR 9, Manchester, New Hampshire)

South Carolina Spent $9 Billion on Nuclear Reactors That Will Never Run. Now What? (Governing)

Germany’s nuclear phase-out explained (Deutsche Welle)

Zombie Lie Returns; Time To Kill It Again

By Frank Andorka, Senior Correspondent

What Happened: This fella right here – Lucas Davis,an Associate Professor of Economic Analysis and Policy at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley – trotted out the zombie lie about the solar-customer cost shift again on something called “The Energy Institute at Haas” blog.

If he would have picked up the phone and called down to the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, they could have cautioned him against spreading this garbage.
How many times to we have to debunk this before reputable people stop trafficking in this idiocy?
I haven’t been able to figure out yet who funds the Haas School, but whoever it is needs to get a better handle on what its people are putting out (unless the goal is to misinform the public on a host of public policy issues – more on that in a second).

SolarWakeup’s View: (Me, to Yann): “Didn’t I just write this story?”

[Yann to me]: “No.”

[Me to Yann]: “Are you sure? This feels so familiar.”

[Yann to me]: “Look, it’s a zombie lie story, so yeah, you’ve written it before. But this is a different person telling the zombie lie – and it’s not even a utility? He’s an associate professor and everything.”

[Me to Yann]: (Look of quiet desperation) OK. I’ll write it. This is going to be what’s engraved on my tombstone, isn’t it? ‘Frank Andorka, Killed By The Zombie Lie’

[Yann to me]: (Grin)

[wds id=”3″]

Sadly, this is an article I could probably write in my sleep. Another pinhead – this time Lucas Davis, an associate professor of economic analysis and policy at the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley – took to The Energy Blog At Hass to peddle the notion that when solar customers join the electricity-production mix, they shift costs to non-solar users. In his example, California non-solar ratepayers are paying $65 more per year to “subsidize” solar rate payers, who are compensated for their extra electricity by the utilities.

It’s the zombie lie concerning “cost-shifting” again, which, as I have shouted into the abyss so many times I can’t even count them all, is complete nonsense. I should have this explanation as a macro so I don’t have to type it every time. As it is, I’m just going to cut and paste it from my story on Kentucky 12 days ago. If you’re bored reading it, maybe tell Davis and his ilk to stop arguing lies. Let’s review:

The argument goes like this: Retail-rate net metering, a program under which solar customers are reimbursed for the excess electricity they produce, pushes extra costs on to non-solar customers because solar customers aren’t paying for grid upkeep.

What the utilities don’t want you to notice, of course, is that solar customers also relieve congestion on the grid during peak production times, which saves strain on the transmission and distribution lines. So while they may not be paying for upkeep directly, solar production saves wear and tear, which ultimately saves the utility money in the form of repair costs.

You’re welcome.

I should note here that while there is a minor cost-shift, a study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory indicates the shift only happens when a state passes the 10% mark for solar-electricity generation. And I should also note that even at more than 10%, the shift is so small you’d need the Berkeley Lab’s $27 million electron microscope to see it.

I can’t tell for sure, but from this post and the rest of the posts on Haas School’s blog on energy, it seems like they have an agenda, namely to turn back the clock to the 19th century when all electricity was produced from fossil fuels.

I’m getting so tired of fighting this zombie lie – does anyone have a suggestion about how I can kill it for good? I thank you, and my dog thanks you.

More:

Why Am I Paying $65/year for Your Solar Panels? (The Energy Institute Blog at Haas) [Me, at my computer screen while I’m typing this]: FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, YOU’RE NOT, YOU LYING LIAR! (breathes deeply)

Zombie Lie Informs Kentucky’s Attempt To Kill Its Solar Industry

South Carolina Solar Soul Under Attack [Me]: I’m beginning to feel like MY soul is under attack.

Bonus:

Feast your eyes on this electron microscope. It’s amazing what $27 million will buy.