Tag Archives: Daily Rundown

This is your SolarWakeup for August 13th

ERCOT Loading. It wasn’t long ago that a 50GW day in ERCOT was considered a crazy feat. A few weeks ago it went above 90GW and forecasts have a peak of 120GW in a couple of years. The problem is that at those levels everything has to work quite right with the caveat that something is causing the stress on the grid to begin with. Like a zipper, if one thing goes wrong a lot goes wrong. It’s not just ERCOT, every ISO is dealing with the new need for power because as you know, the economy only works if the grid does. 

Both Sides Of The Grid. More on the zipper theory of things going wrong when it comes to the grid. Even without max demand stress, everyone wants their lights, factories and servers to run when they hit the power switch. The entire point is that generation is there when load desires it, with the grid bringing it from one end to another. Forecasters are worried about the demand (load) growing faster than generation (supply). Meanwhile the grid operators want certainty, demand certainty, from both the supply and demand. That is why the headlines and stories from operators and forecasters are focused on things like ride through and backup power. The physics will require overproduction of generation, certainty of demand and A LOT of energy storage. Here’s the wild card though, the grid, inverters, data centers and batteries all run on various levels of software and that software has little to zero oversight and certainly has little value proposition in the solar/storage market. 

All About Timing. Wild card number two, when is the supply generated and when does the demand for the load happen, how overlapping is that Venn diagram. 

Some News. You may or may not have seen some career updates from me but you can catch it on my LinkedIn here. You can also now subscribe to Wakeup Premium and get one of the seats in this ecosystem we’ve built over the past 14 years. By joining premium Wakeup, a small group of you will be able to shape the discussion that the solar industry is hearing. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for August 12th

3 Cents Of Headwind. We live in a funny time, several days after the 232 proclamation, this version of the Sunshot team proclaims a 3 cent per kWh utility solar target by 2030. 

Negotiating Offtaker Agreements? I want to hear from you and see what you’re getting from off takers post 232 and expected Capex increases. 

Some News. You may or may not have seen some career updates from me but you can catch it on my LinkedIn here. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for August 11th

The Point of 232. Stop relying on foreign made solar panels and create a domestic manufacturing ecosystem. Through a series of duties and tariffs, the US has built out a supply chain for domestic module assembly, nearing 60GW and growing while starting a cell manufacturing ramp up. There is a hopeful mission that can be written as a headline with an undertone of shifting margin to a few companies that are taking victory laps for the 232 proclamation that gives domestic suppliers room to breathe in that 40cent per watt range. I don’t know that this is the end of the road though and whether the runway exists to drive the Capex for the full build out of the domestic supply chain given the ITC and 45x sunsets. 

Fixing The Downsides. The cost of modules is going up and that’s going to hurt the economics of every project that isn’t taking delivery by December, which means they’ve likely already ordered the modules. There are a couple of things that are worrisome, first is the 10-15cents per watt that projects will have to absorb, second is what happens to the projects that are circa 2030 and don’t have an ITC to support the current off take levels pre-232 costs and third is how the manufacturers will raise the capital for the Capex of the production plants. If you take all of those into a simple umbrella, the solar industry is looking at a future that needs an extension of the ITC and 45x, ideally soon. Soon, so that certainty allows for capital to continue to be invested for projects and manufacturing. The reality is that there is significant pressure on PPA itself with most of you being told that off takes will have the need to adjust the pricing, a message that I am being told you should be pressure checking because the people in the room don’t know how likely that is. 

Scenarios Of 2030. Here are the variables I am thinking about in the Post ITC, post 45x world. How will the domestic market look and what is the total demand for solar in 2030 and beyond? What elasticity do we see in the PPA market from the utilities, CCAs, corporate off takers? How close will the solar+storage LCOE get to the gas turbine LCOE for the data center universe? What does the development success for data centers look like given the local opposition? Will the solar industry and Congress come together to find a way to extend the ITC and/or 45x or does the industry stay on the sideline? 

Wakeup Premium. I am soft launching this to figure out the back end of this concept. Here’s my idea, to take this dialogue of the SolarWakeup commentary into a smaller group for a ‘micro-consulting’ concept, giving you another voice/opinion/data point to consider in your day to day, then shape the topics that are most important to you for me to consider writing about. You can find the signup on the SolarWakeup website if you desire to get involved early, you’ll see this commentary shifting into a separate mailing list in the coming weeks. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for August 10th

Anti-Solar Consequences. Solar forces behind The Invest in Tomorrow Coalition PAC pushed and succeeded in helping Representative Ogles lose his primary race in Tennessee. There is a political price to pay for members of Congress that are anti-solar and it appears that this is true on both sides of the aisle. Pro-solar is pro-jobs, pro-business, anti-inflation and just makes common sense. Here is my new tagline for members, Keep your job and support solar!

232 Coming In. Last week came the 232 proclamation, with an enforcement date of December of this year. This gives limited time for folks to figure it out but a watchful eye on mass importation to try and warehouse inventory. I am getting some sense on where prices are going, would love to get your thoughts on how this develops and where the supply chain will try to expand asap. Certainly, projects will die and energy cost for solar will go up, net jobs will decline but we will have domestic manufacturing. Is 250% too steep a tax to pay for this? That is the political bet that has been made and we’re paying for. 

A Political Merger. The Governor of Virginia has come out and is intervening in the Virginia review on the Nextera – Dominion merger. When folks asked me at the time what I thought of the merger, I didn’t answer with a business, strategy or other opinion except for saying that the two Governors (Florida and Virginia) had presidential ambitions and that would have some caveats. 

Opinion

Best, Yann