This is your SolarWakeup for December 17th, 2018

Creating Known Unknowns. In the latest SolarWakeup Live! conversation I speak with Gabe Philips, a college classmate of mine and an experienced energy trader. In fact, he traded electricity generated from a solar farm I developed and built in the past. We hear about power markets with corporate offtake all the time and deals in PJM, ERCOT and CAISO are announced all the time. There is a lot to these transactions and that is what Gabe and I spoke about in this Live! conversation.

 The Electric Fleet Mobilized. California is taking the solar home mandate and passed the similar version of this for transit buses. 25% of buses purchased in 2023 will have to be zero emissions and 100% of those purchased after 2029 will have to follow suit. This means that within about 20 years, all transit buses will be electric. I like when mandates are slower than what the market will do. Much like solar, electrification of fleets isn’t just something that users want, it also means a deployment of capital. Much like selling solar PPAs to schools, you’ll see companies like Proterra offering electric fleet as a service contracts to school districts across the Country. All of that load will have to be serviced and generation will have to be available, more solar will have to be built. 

Cheeeeap Solar. Texas will be the first State to drop PPAs under 2 cents in a big way. First, because storage is harder to pencil with no capacity market and second because it’s so damn cheap to build there. Land is flat and abundant while permitting will be much simpler than other areas. 

Consumers Matter. Long Island’s utility (LIPA) is taking up a similar consumer protection policy as the State oversight board. This follows many other States that have also done this. The problem with the policy isn’t that solar can’t meet it, it’s that nobody is paying attention to actually making solar companies follow the rules. I continue to be amazed at some of the junk that is put on people’s roofs and buildings just hoping that a problem 3 or 5 years from now is someone else’s mess to deal with. There are still many homes that have racking installed with no desire to meet roofing best practices or even code compliance, taking advantage of the local inspectors lack of solar knowledge. The industry must do more to protect homeowners and keep bad solar from hurting the industry. 

Opinion

Have a great day!

Yann

 

This is your SolarWakeup for December 14th, 2018

Tariff Slowdown. Here’s a hot take. A slowdown doesn’t require the market to actually go down in size. The tariffs can have an impact that drags the market in the negative direction while still allowing the market to grow because solar is doing very well. On the other hand if tariffs weren’t in play, AD/CVD tariffs were gone, and the trade war wasn’t happening, solar would be growing much larger and faster. Anytime these things happen, make sure to listen to people that are actually in the market doing things. Punditry is fun and all but being a full time pundit doesn’t help you with your business. Tariffs are causing executives to have to spend time and money on changing manufacturing locations, figure out new supply chain logistics and dealing with new partners in new places. This drags the market in a direction that none of us like. On the upside, this is the first December that I don’t see a cliff on December 31st. No NEM cap, incentive pool or other regulatory barrier ahead that would hurt a big market right now and that is a positive sign for everyone. 

Live! Rewind, Abby Hopper. How much is the right amount of budget for SEIA to do everything they would like to do? Abby answers this and more. Full episode here

Live! Rewind, President Fiordaliso. The New Jersey SREC cap is going to reach the goal sometime in the first quarter of 2019. What does the BPU think is the right approach as the market heads to a brick wall? Fiordaliso answers my question and makes a bold statement. The Conversation Starts Here. 

SMA Job Cuts. SMA continues the corporate restructuring including 100 job cuts in Germany, 300 in foreign locations and the sale of the China business unit to the local team. The consolidation in inverters is real and I worry a bit about the market over consolidating while still sustaining massive price pressures. 

Weekend. We’ll be heading to the aquarium this weekend, I hope you enjoy your weekend as well! Keep calm and solar on!

Opinion

Have a great day!

Yann

 

This is your SolarWakeup for December 13th, 2018

Hopper On SolarWakeup Live! Abby Hopper is the CEO of SEIA and she joined me on SolarWakeup Live! to talk about the state of the solar industry. She’s been the CEO for an entire solar year, SPI to SPI, and it all started with tariffs. In this conversation we talk about where we are today, what States will take off and how SEIA negotiates for all members, regardless of the segment they operate in. We also talk about the reality of a split government in DC. Listen to the full interview here and make sure to leave a review on iTunes. 

Message To Federal Regulators. Don’t miss the conversation with New Jersey’s BPU President, Joseph Fiordaliso. He has a strong message for the federal regulators and we discuss the role that PJM plays within the NJ solar market. I ask about the reality of New Jersey leaving the PJM system. Full conversation available here, hit reply to let me know your thoughts and pass it on to your colleagues. 

Elon Continues Charm Offensive. I enjoy Elon on the shows, whether it is Joe Rogan or 60 minutes. He is the right amount of real while staying true to the overarching reasons for his businesses. Every CEO knows that if they fail to execute they will die, even the Walmart CEO keeps a list of the top retailers on his phone (hello Sears!). On the other hand, most CEOs would never tell millions of people that the failure would result in the company failing. 60 minutes is under fire for creative editing to release the full interview, this comes from the fact that Elon drama gets many clicks and views. I did enjoy Jay Leno’s 60 second pitch for supporting Tesla. 

UPS Spends To Lead. This may be the first sponsored post that I rebroadcasting but it is interesting and notable for UPS to spend money to talk about their fleet electrification. Transportation is one of the largest sources of emissions by segment and electrifying fleets across the globe would do great things if solar and wind are there to supply the needed generation. 

Opinion

Have a great day!

Yann

 

This is your SolarWakeup for December 12th, 2018

Regulator Talks Policy and Climate Change. Here is the first of the conversations from our sold out event in New Jersey with the President of the BPU, Joseph Fiordaliso. In a conversation that was expected to focus on the regulatory activity in New Jersey (They are busy, and hiring), President Fiordaliso threw me a curveball by speaking in great detail about the reasons behind the important work he is undertaking, climate change. Moreover, he provides some feedback to the folks at DOE and FERC trying to prop up coal and nuclear power plants. Listen to the entire conversation here or on your favorite podcast streaming app. 

Q&A With Governor Inslee. The Governor of Washington, Jay Inslee, is proposing a 100% RPS by 2045 and sees it as a legislative priority for the next legislative session. Frank had the opportunity to get some of the most relevant questions answered about the latest initiative to go 100% renewable. 

Big Day For Big Name. 8minuteenergy is one of the most well known names in solar development. From the day I started in solar, 8minute was out in California developing these unfathomably large solar projects. As the company puts together a new $200million fund with JP Morgan, I’d like to congratulate Martin Hermann for exiting from the company. His partner announced over the weekend that Martin has been bought out. When people ask me what I wish I’d done in 2006 when I entered solar, I look back at the things Martin was saying at solar conferences because he was more right than anyone else. 

Opening Energy Storage. FERC is receiving the filings from grid operators about the Order 841 filed early this year. ISOs and RTOs had to file their plans to implement the order which asked for the enablement of market participation by energy storage systems. More work needs to be done but you can see how this plays out over the next few years. 

Explorer, Escalade. Yes, an electric Ford Explorer would be great. Yes, I know that GM doesn’t own Ford. Yes, I got it wrong yesterday, I am sorry! I am glad to see many of you reading the column emailed me to point out my error. I would recommend GM to make an electric Escalade or Tahoe though!

Opinion

Have a great day!

Yann