Tag Archives: Daily Rundown

This is your SolarWakeup for April 7th, 2020

Paycheck Protection. Let’s do a quick rundown today, lots going on. By now most in solar have applied for the paycheck protection program, the $350billion SBA loan that forgives most of the uses you need the money for. The problem is that the money hasn’t started flowing, not even close because banks are accepting applications but aren’t clear on the underwriting or funding process. As all of this happens in real-time, please let me know when you are able to get a loan funded, this will help others get through this. 

Get Your Story Out. Speaking of getting through this. While there are positive data signals coming out of the market (selling remote, better than expected close rates, no touch permitting), the solar industry is struggling and it will get worse before it gets better. And that assumes that the consumer will be in a financial position to buy solar when the time comes. When the process of installing solar gets slower, installers find themselves in need of additional capital, everyone does. So when you combine the need for capital with the risk adjusted credit landscape that you are describing in the tracking survey, there is cause for concern. Your member of Congress needs to hear this from you and how the epidemic is impacting your business. Ideally they hear this from you through media not only from a call which you should make as well. Call your local business reporter or business journal and let them know how this is impacting the local solar economy. I wish there was a click here for outreach but you’ll have to do this one and it needs to be done. Absent a strong national cry for help, the local installers, developers and investors need to be in the news more than we are today. More on this below.

Better Data. We’re having an issue with data and estimates in the industry right now. Wood Mackenzie was out last week with their assessment of the solar market being down 30%+ and now Morgan Stanley says it could be almost 50% in Q2 alone. The data you are telling me, across dozens of companies paints a lighter picture that doesn’t drive the market as far down and a shorter duration than I’m reading about. Take part in this week’s survey to help make our case and highlight the business issues. You can then take this data to your reporter and tell your personal story with a data point behind it.

Getting The Data Out. Join me this morning as I discuss the state of the solar market with Phil Shen from Roth Capital. This is a free virtual town hall to learn about the marketplace and hear first hand information from other solar professionals in the market. 10am easter and 7am pacific. 

Selling Remotely. What success are you finding shifting your sales to virtual only? Is there anything that worked for you or you had to figure out because it wasn’t? I want to hear from you about the process, software that helped and other ways to make this work for the long term.

Oil Stories Rule The Day. Since Friday of last week, Axios’ energy section has 12 oil stories. 12. While it’s a big story, the oil industry is doing a great job keeping reporters filled with information. Imitation is the best form of flattery and we should be doing this too.

First Public Co Speaks Out. Yesterday, Sunrun published early financial information for Q1 and withdrew its guidance given the drastic change in the market. The company does spell out some of the changes to their sales process: drone, video calls and digital permitting amongst others. It also includes some views on what the future consumers may be looking for, helpful information available here. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for April 6th, 2020

Survey #4. The policy discussions for the next stimulus package are in full force. With the paycheck protection plan bound to be oversubscribed in the coming weeks, Congress will come back to do more. The information you provide in the SolarWakeup survey helps us tell the story of the resilient industry that we are, even in the face of adversity. All of your responses are confidential and you get to see last week’s result when you fill it out. Please participate by clicking here and share this LinkedIn post with your network.

Market Impact Conference Call. Tomorrow morning you can join me and Roth’s Philip Shen on a conference call to discuss the survey results and the depth and duration of the COVID impact on the solar industry. If you want information about the call, contact Phil at pshen@roth.com. He also publishes great analysis on some of the publicly traded solar companies, ask him to be added to his list when you email him.

A Tweet Tells The Story. Congressional leaders have soured on the idea that the next stimulus bill will include infrastructure. Yesterday, Trump gave some comments foreshadowing more support for the oil and gas industry. The oil and gas industry has been doing a good job on the public relations front, making Americans feel bad about their pending financial troubles. I know that solar tries hard to put on a brave face but we should be honest and out front about the cash flow issues solar is facing during this pandemic affecting us all. Americans can’t empathize with issues they are not aware of.

An Impossible Experiment. We can actually see the positive coming out as many of us sit on our front porch working from home. The air is cleaner everywhere in the world, sights are being seen for the first time in centuries. Snowy mountaintops in India, clean water across the world and emissions from cars are down almost entirely. The political discussion was whether humans impact emissions and we could have theorized about the impact cars have but taking them off the road for weeks/months was never feasible. Now we have the results and it is undeniable that we have to get to electric cars without delay. We can’t make EVs the fun project between GM and Honda, they have to be charged up to take each other on. Trillions of revenues are on the line and the future of the world population.

Fill out the survey, share it far and wide. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for April 3rd, 2020

The Survey Results. The pandemic is starting to hit the solar industry, big increases in furloughs and terminations as well as delayed payables in the overall ecosystem. Thanks again for participating in the survey and passing the newsletter on to your colleagues. If anyone has success getting approved for the SBA paycheck protection program, please let me know.

New Sales Down. For the 3rd week in a row, new sales last week dropped 50% when compared to the average sales volume from Q1 pre-COVID. This is a further reduction from the 33% drop we saw in last week’s survey.

Building Departments Adjusting. While over 75% of you said that building departments had closed or delayed inspections, 42% are now seeing no-touch permitting and FaceTime inspections. Please share this data with your local trade group as they aggregate this information.

Adjusting Expenses. Some (43%) have had to lay off or furlough employees and more (36%) are seeing potential for more in April or May. This could be stemmed with the SBA payroll protection loan that is supposed to launch today (but likely isn’t)

Your Question. I asked what question you wanted to see in next week’s survey and over 50% of you asked about the ITC extension. In my conversation with you, it is clear that you want to see it in the next stimulus bill and want to know what strategy is being used to push this. You and I can do our part by contacting our member of Congress. If an actual call to action crosses my desk, I assure you that I will pass it on. I was saddened to see the ITC left out of package 3 and it worries me to see the administration trying to bail out the oil industry without further legislation but I shall keep my optimism alive.

Have a great weekend! Stay healthy!

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for April 2nd, 2020

Call Me Commish. Yesterday was the best April fools joke of my life. No, I will not be a PSC commissioner and yes I will continue to do this newsletter, you are stuck with me! I woke up in a panic, I live in California which means that a lot of you get this newsletter at 4am my time. Your texts and hundreds of emails made me realize that for some reason you thought I would be nominated by the Governor AND be able to get confirmed. I would actually love to be a PSC commissioner at some point but that time is not now. The panic came from the realization that maybe I overstepped the time we are living in and taking advantage of days blending together, but I got to see what an exit would look like and thank you! So next year, know that an April fools is coming again but this will be hard to top.

If You Need. If you used my announcement and by chance forwarded it to your boss or colleagues without fact checking, I’m sorry. If you want me to call your boss and explain just let me know! If you wrote analysis on the opportunity of solar because I’m on the PSC, please let me read it. I want to see how far in the pocket of solar you all think I am!

Back To Business. Things are really bad in the oil markets especially in Texas. Tens of thousands of oil jobs are at risk of being lost by the double black swan events coming together in corona and the Saudi/Russia collision. WTI traded below $20/barrel yesterday and global consumption is down bigly. With oil CEOs coming to the White House I would expect the White House to go big on a bailout. Look at CNBC’s Jim Cramer calling this a major economic risk.

What This Means For Solar. Trump tweeted about the impending infrastructure week and the current low interest rates. He’s also right that infrastructure spending would be vital to keep business flowing across the Country. Chamath Palihapatiya was on Kara Swisher’s Recode Decode and said it best, “right now, everyone gets everything they want.” From a political standpoint, I think oil execs should hug solar to stop the positioning that the Senate GOP is taking that package 4 isn’t required and ‘green’ topics shouldn’t be included. Oil doesn’t care if solar gets something or everything, they are in dire need of help and don’t care about the quo to their quid. 

Opinion

Best, Yann