Tag Archives: Daily Rundown

This is your SolarWakeup for May 11th, 2020

My Update. Just over 22 months ago I joined the team at Quick Mount and moved my family to the Bay Area. After 13 years developing, financing and leading teams in C&I and utility scale solar, I joined the residential solar segment. Quick Mount revolutionized the mounting space going back to 2006 and in a competitive market I was asked to get Quick Mount back to its leadership position. What originally was estimated to be a 3 year process, ended up in a sale of the company in 14 months from the moment I arrived. The team was best in class and ownership trusted us to grow it with great additions and success followed with a new strategy implemented. With the turnaround and sale complete, I remained with the acquiring company to help with the integration and now is the time to move on to find the next great company in solar. The past 2 years have been the greatest time in my professional career and a real sign of the maturity in solar today. In the meantime there will be time to catch up with family and consulting while the opportunities present themselves as they have in the past.

The People. If I learned one thing in the last 2 years it is that the people in residential solar are amazing and what’s proof in the past month is that their resilience is like no other. I’m overjoyed to have had a chance to work with this group of solar professionals and look forward to doing much more with you.

The Market. I published my bullish outlook of the market a few weeks ago which has now been confirmed by half a dozen public companies during their earnings calls. In my interview with Palmetto’s CEO and President we talked about how the company had some of their best sales in the past month and I predicted that 2020 wasn’t going to be a down year compared to 2019. I believe that not only is 2020 going to be a better year than expected but I see great promise in the years ahead, investors are saying the same by buying in on the company stocks. Whether it is public or private markets, solar’s investment environment has never been better.

SolarWakeup. SolarWakeup will continue publishing the newsletter and expand into serving the solar market with reports and information. Many of you have already participated in the module index which will expand its reach and value that it creates for manufacturers and installers alike. Just like Expedia expanded air travel, so will a transparent marketplace for installers. You already see manufacturers expanding clarity with online stores and dealer networks as proof of the path forward. More to come on this tomorrow. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for May 8th, 2020

Virtual Edition Rewind. You can catch yesterday’s virtual edition of SolarWakeup Live! About virtual sales and digital operations here. Thanks for all that joined.

Big News Monday. Stay tuned for some big news on Monday. In the meantime, here is the one thing that caught my eye in reviewing the earnings slides for each report outlining the performance in Q1 this year. Note that COVID impact largely started with two weeks left in the quarter and the commentary is more indicative of what the future holds. That being said, there is a consistent message that Q2 will be 30% of 2019 and we have already hit bottom.

Sunrun. 2020 brings thus far the highest percentage of leases as a function of total projects, back to early 2018 levels. Q1 this year was bigger than Q2 2019. Slides.

Vivint Solar. The company also exceeded Q2 of 2019 and every quarter in 2018. System installation cost are the highest they’ve been in years, unsure what would have caused that. Company now has cumulatively installed 1.3GW of solar on homes. Slides.

SunPower. Slides are showing the company in a quasi split environment, anticipating the manufacturing to go away in 2020 to the Maxeon entity. The manufacturing plants are either back up and running or scheduled to. Balance sheet still shows the 2 million shares of Enphase the company owns from the sale of Solarbridge a few years ago. Note to SunPower execs, anything you want to do for my Solarbridge inverters on my house circa 2012 would be appreciated. Slides

Enphase. In Q1 2019 the company generated net income of $2.7million. In Q1 2020 that increased to $68million with margins at almost 40%. The stock is trading nearly at pre-COVID levels while upside is still huge given revenues are less than half that of Solaredge and GTM reports market share to be about half in US residential. Slides

Solaredge. The company shipped more optimizers and inverters and delivered higher revenues in Q1 2020 than in Q4 2019. In this quarter that company shipped 1.8GW of inverters. Slides

First Solar. Here’s some scale for you, the First Solar pipeline is over 12GW now and their module roadmap presents a 500W module in the near future. Not too bad for low efficiency thin film. The manufacturing plants are up and running at nearly full capacity. Slides

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for May 7th, 2020

Last Push. Fill out the survey which closes today at noon. We’ll be releasing the data next Monday. 

Podcast. Would love to hear your thoughts on the podcast, where we focus on the content and not so much on the production. A great episode with a big prediction from me at the end, check it out here, rate and subscribe. 

Cleanup At Oil Well #4. Oil wells are apparently being abandoned by companies and unfortunately causing many to lose their jobs. It is also causing environmental disasters in rural communities across the Country which are asking for government to hire those workers and cap the wells. Right after they do that, they should pay them to go through a solar training program and we can help place them into installation jobs in solar.

Solaredge and Sunrun Report Earnings. A trend is coming out in the earnings calls that the bottom in residential solar may be behind us and Q3 could be better than expected. A few more companies need to report so we get the whole picture but I tend to agree with the positive sentiment going into the second half of the year. The difference will be seen in how companies adapt to the way of working in their areas and how well their building departments react.

What’s Your Virtual Future? I am starting to hear from many of you that working from home is the long term normal for you regardless of the shelter in place rules. Now that you have seen how it is possible, as soon as the kids go back to school, you don’t want it any other way. This is also going to impact the conference circuit we’ve been on in the past decade. One trade show, Midwest Solar Expo is going virtual. I toured the concept yesterday and I was impressed. It’s an environment where you can walk through exhibits and auditoriums like you do at shows. The coolest part is the 3D sound of conversations as you walk through the floor. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for May 6th, 2020

Get Your Survey On. A great response yesterday from many of you, let’s get one more push for the tracking survey to see how far from the bottom we have bounced back from. Please contribute to the survey before we close this tomorrow.

New Pod and Live! Last week I interviewed the CEO and President from Palmetto Clean Technology. As a mostly digital and remote solar company that supports residential solar execution, I wanted to see how the pandemic was impacting their operation and what their perspective was going forward. We also talk about their launch of a working capital solution. Don’t forget to subscribe and rate the podcast. You can also join me live! to talk about digitizing your business operations on Thursday morning pacific time, register here.

Impact Of COVID. I am starting to gather my thoughts on the market piece by piece which I will share more in the next week. This week we have earnings calls from solar companies including Enphase and Solaredge which give us a really good indication of where we are. Yesterday Enphase talked about Q1 which was stronger than Wall Street expected and guided to a COVID impacted Q2. During the call they mentioned what we at SolarWakeup have seen in the survey, we’ve hit the bottom and rebuilding the pipeline, backlog and getting back to work. More to come on this.

A New Loan Player. It’s the most obvious move in solar that you may be surprised to hear it. SunPower raised $1billion to finance loans and leases originated by their top of class dealer network. Partnering with Tech Credit Union, a long time solar player, SunPower will be lowering their financing costs and possibly see upside in any potential securitizations down the line. I will be interested to see how much of the financing efficiency flows down to the dealers when compared to traditional loan providers.

Electricity As The Indicator. Italy is seeing an uptick in energy consumption, a reminder that overall consumption is an economic indicator and unfortunately also a precursor to increase in pollution. How much goes back to the same old ways versus a new normal?

What Does Local Mean? Joel Makower from GreenBiz talks about an interesting topic that has personally spent a lot of time in my mind. I moved to the Bay Area almost two years ago to be close to the center of solar, being local to many of you. Now we’re close but I may as well be sitting in Paris. The opposite is also true, traveling to see family in Florida was easy 2 months ago and something we did often. Will I get on another airplane this year? Will you? At the end of the day, the most local of things in my life has been this newsletter, the relationships have no withered and actually grew in the past 2 months. Today is a big day as yesterday we reached 5,000 subscribers and I don’t take it for granted that every day a huge auditorium full of dedicated solar professionals reads these words. 

Opinion

Best, Yann