Tag Archives: Daily Rundown

This is your SolarWakeup for October 26th, 2020

Tiny Windows. This was the first Presidential debate that had a planned segment on climate change and it did not disappoint. Trump continued to look at climate change as a building code issue, which provides the segue to say that building codes are one of the most powerful, yet under appreciated policies affecting climate change and solar. On the other hand, Biden talked about methane, batteries and transition in the most progressive way we’ve seen out of a candidate. You can read the entire debate transcript here.

Batteries In The Basement. In several interviews, town halls and debates, Biden has brought up the need for both a smart grid and solar plus storage. He’s been talking like many of us when we explain the needs for our market to a family member. The baseline for all of the policies I would expect in a Biden administration is the goal of 100% net zero by 2035 (though 2025 would be fine) in electricity generation. How to achieve this 15 year transition will be the makeup of many trade groups’ 100 day policy papers you will see the day after the election.

Solar Is (Isn’t) A Pipe Dream. “Solar. I love solar, but solar doesn’t quite have it yet…So, it’s all a pipe dream,” Those are the words at the debate by Trump before also saying that solar can’t power America’s factories. Tell that to the developers, investors, manufacturers, EPCs, lawyers and union workers that have installed solar that sit on rooftops or solar farms across the Country. This is not due to a lack of effort by SEIA, solar companies and republican senators that have met with Trump and his senior advisors over the past 4 years to educate the administration about solar. So here we are after 4 years, solar isn’t ready for prime-time coming from the leader of the free world. So here’s a headline from last week, after IEA said solar is the cheapest source of electricity in the world.

The Oil And Gas Isn’t (Is) A Pipe Dream. The hottest part of the debate was when Biden said, slipped, or was misunderstood (depending on how you stand on the politics) that he was looking to end oil and transition them to renewable energy. Couple of notes on this topic. 1. Oil and renewable energy don’t directly intersect. Oil is losing market share to electricity, competing with utilities but not any particular type of generation. 2. Biden’s campaign was saying that he meant he wanted to end oil’s federal subsidies to which I say, don’t get rid of them but add solar to them instead. Particularly carrybacks for tax credits and ability to offset active income tax liabilities. 3. This is what the Biden administration really should be saying, Biden didn’t say or propose anything that the CEO of BP and other oil majors aren’t already saying themselves. They are already transitioning the business because the market has spoken, something republicans should understand.

Must Listen Conversation. Biden talked with hosts of Pod Save America after the debate in this interview. The interview leads with climate change and goes from 4:17 to 13:15. The 11:30 mark talks about smart grids and solar plus storage gets the nod at 11:50.

The 2021 Foundation. 2021 is the year that will highlight either an amazing decade for solar that passed or set the foundation for a decade of domination. Regardless it will break records and SolarWakeup has always had one of the most aggressive forecasts that also had the benefit of being the most accurate. 2021 will bring a residential market of over 3.6GW, over 20% growth over 2020. A lot of that backlog is already in the books and consumers’ appetite for solar power is bigger than ever before. A Biden victory will set the foundation for many more years at this scale and higher but will also take away the ITC cliff driving more capacity at the end of the year. If Trump wins again, it will depend on how the House and Senate play out whether there is an ITC deal but we can expect more tariffs and less focus on renewable energy which makes solar policy advocates focus on States instead.

The Buyer’s Group Grows. We’re into our second month at the Buyer’s Group and we’ve added another top supplier to the product portfolio. REC modules are now available at an amazing pre-negotiated rate for buyer’s group members. Both Alpha and N-Peak products are on the list. You can get some price discovery for REC or other products on our members page.

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 23rd, 2020

On Monday. I’ll have some commentary about the debate on Monday. Politico’s Michael Grunwald chimes in with a view of Biden’s choices if he wins. You’ll also get my 2021 expectations for the market, SolarWakeup has been pretty spot on with 2019 and 2020 forecasts. We’ll include a great new product addition to the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group showing the momentum that comes from helping installers increase margin.

Get That Money. What’s better than a solar job? A solar job that pays more than other job.

Supply Chains Will Adjust. Look for solar to quick pivot and make changes to ensure supply chain isn’t entangled with human rights concerns.

Tesla’s Energy Side. “We continue to believe that the energy business will ultimately be as large as our vehicle business.“ The company installed 57MW of solar and says that they did a solar roof install in 1.5 days. Here’s the deck, it’s light on things that aren’t cars or batteries.

Colorado Blaze. Thinking about our many friends in Colorado. This picture showed the gravity of the situation unfolding.

Covering The ITC by M Bar C. In the last 15 years, the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has allowed organizations to benefit from substantial cost savings to solar installations. This sustainability-driven program has helped revolutionize the renewable energy industry. Regardless, in 2021 ITC benefits will shift; here is what you need to know from my friends at M Bar C Construction and how we can help you and your organization take maximum advantage of these savings while they last. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 22nd, 2020

Less Is More. Australia is sending the solar postcard from the future. With over 20% of homes already with solar, storage going through the roof, the market is putting solar on homes at $1/watt with instant permitting and innovative inspection processes. You can order products directly from your software tool and get to work the day after signing the contract with e-signatures. With all of that rooftop solar, look at the demand data that shows an overall reduction.

Oceans Rise, Empires Fall. Some solar EPC is going to be hiring hundreds of workers to install a 400MW solar farm in Indiana, part of NIPSCO’s 900MW solar and storage plan. Indiana is a bellwether for me, and as I talked about with TJ Kanczuzweki, the midwest solar industry is ready to go. So here’s some words of wisdom from Hamilton’s King George of what the fossil empire thought was going to happen, and here we are. “You’ll be back soon you’ll see, You’ll remember you belong to me, You’ll be back time will tell, You’ll remember that I served you well. Oceans rise, Empires fall.”

The EV Hummer. General Motors is bringing back the off-road line as an electric vehicle. This version misses the consumer but it’s another step towards the EV in every driveway future that will drive more demand in solar.

Why The Down Day? You may have seen your solar portfolio was down a good amount yesterday and that’s because there is a new wrinkle in silicon supply chain. This is largely caused by Obama’s original trade war with China that moved a lot of the silicon manufacturing to the Xinjiang. It appears the labor pool in Xinjiang could include some Uyghur risk. With the House passing a bill requiring supply chains to be clean of this human rights issue, this is going to cause some shifts in solar supply. If you want to get more info on this, Roth Capital is hosting a call with lawyers, silicon suppliers and SEIA this morning. You can register for the Zoom call here.

Covering The ITC by M Bar C. In the last 15 years, the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has allowed organizations to benefit from substantial cost savings to solar installations. This sustainability-driven program has helped revolutionize the renewable energy industry. Regardless, in 2021 ITC benefits will shift; here is what you need to know from my friends at M Bar C Construction and how we can help you and your organization take maximum advantage of these savings while they last. 

Opinion

 

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 21st, 2020

A Look Ahead. With Biden ahead in the polls a lot of talk is heading into the what if and how things would look in solar so let’s partake in the punditry on the various topics in today’s news.

Mad Money Returns To Solar. Jim Cramer is no stranger to talking about the next big thing in solar, here he is with David Crane 5 years ago. Couple of things are different today, solar has a lot more to offer in the public markets and some of the hottest stocks in solar have great positive cash flow, GAAP EBITDA and the benefits of a growing market. No doubt that the solar stocks are benefitting from the what if valuation that expect 2021 and beyond to be the start of the solar decade. If you listened to our market call yesterday you saw the underlying data that showed 2020 was off to a greater than 20% growth and lagged only from April to July and is back to 2019 levels. What’s happened at the same time is a massive growth of backlog both in residential contracts and interconnection queues.

Roofs And Parking Lots. This is the goal, how do we get solar on every roof and parking lot in the Country that has the technical potential for it. That’s what a Maryland siting report is confirming, we can meet a lot of the goals with existing infrastructure. For presidents, the first 100 days and getting actual results in the first term is key. For Biden, and planet earth, increasing the pace of solar construction at the start of the administration would be a key indicator of a change. And for executives, KPIs are a great way to measure success.

Climate Change, AKA King Tide. Miami has become one of the leading examples of how climate change will impact everyday life, we even have a word for it that doesn’t scare everyone. There are days in the month and times of the year when the water levels are so high that docks are under water and water comes out the storm drains. Right now, we are at the peak season and you wouldn’t believe it but roads to the most expensive beachfront homes in Broward County were closed. Why, you ask? The roads were underwater.

EPA Is Ground Zero. Trump’s EPA may be trying to change coal ash regulations but it’s doubtful that those regs would stay intact if Biden wins in a few weeks. The follow up to that is what might a Biden EPA do for coal ash regulations to have cleaner air and ultimately make sure that coal plants close at a much faster pace. Rumors of Inslee getting tapped for EPA administrator are a signal of where climate would reside from an executive function but names like Mary Nichols also open up the possibility that electrification of transportation is a priority as well.

Covering The ITC by M Bar C. In the last 15 years, the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has allowed organizations to benefit from substantial cost savings to solar installations. This sustainability-driven program has helped revolutionize the renewable energy industry. Regardless, in 2021 ITC benefits will shift; here is what you need to know from my friends at M Bar C Construction and how we can help you and your organization take maximum advantage of these savings while they last. 

Opinion

 

Best, Yann