This is your SolarWakeup for December 15th, 2020

How Fast Will EVs Grow? Mercedes announced that it is adding 8 EVs to the lineup including an Alabama built large SUV by 2022. By the time your next lease ends, this could be a reality and most likely this will be one of many. While it is still surprising to me that Ford isn’t fast tracking an electric F-150 and Explorer we are embarking in something that will seem incredibly obvious a few years from now. The electric consumer vehicle is going from 0-60 in the next replacement cycle, it won’t just be Tesla and Rivian but every brand you love today. Part of the reason for this is also what creates the growth in residential solar. A consumer goes from uneducated to skeptical with some particular characteristic, i.e. range anxiety or solar is too expensify. Then, all of a sudden, a neighbor puts solar on their roof and buys a Tesla and skepticism is potentially eliminated. That network effect becomes a flywheel effect when more than one neighbor changes their behavior.

Executing The Clean Power Plan. Gina McCarthy was the principal architect of the Clean Power Plan as the EPA administrator. She was highly effective, part of the reason it took the Senate 136 days to confirm her nomination. Biden is eyeing her as the Domestic Climate Coordinator and if you’re wondering how the dumbest, newly elected members of Congress feel about it, read the tweet. (Clicking the tweet will reveal a part of the internet you may regret visiting, do so at your own risk)

Will All Transport Electrify? California has 2035 as the goal line for the end of sales for new internal combustion vehicles but a group of European truck manufacturers are setting another bar. The group includes Daimler, Scania, Volvo and Ford are pledging to end ICE for trucks in favor of other sources like battery and hydrogen by 2040. American trucking is one of the largest job creators in the Country and how this industry evolves with fuels and self driving technology will shape the future in a big way.

Adjusting Power Generation. Economic growth used to mean that power needs and electricity consumption increased, heat maps would tell you which areas of the country are growing their economy. Energy efficiency has largely muted that correlation but when transportation electrifies, we will need to plan for a significant increase in energy need and the appropriate increase in generation. You cannot legislate this shift in consumption behavior by moving towards EVs without also including in the same policy guidance and requirements for ensuring the grid is ready for it.

Using Rooftops Better. Rooftops remain the most valuable and underutilized real estate in the Country. This will require regulators to create a long term rate schedule for C&I rooftops because capacity potential will often be larger than the consumption in the building. Leases for large buildings will always be less than the 20/25 years that it takes to get a solar deal done. Those two variables require the downside scenario of a PPA agreement to provide enough cash flow for the solar project.

Hot Jobs. Starting this week you will see the return of the jobs listings on our daily newsletter. This popular feature which was too difficult for us to maintain in house will now be a partnership with our friends at EnergeiaWorks. I invite you to check out their jobs listings which will be updated weekly and support SolarWakeup partners. At any point, if you’d like a personal introduction, please let me know.

Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive. Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for December 14th, 2020

Spending Bill Pushed. Late Friday, Trump signed a one week continuing resolution that lets the government stay open. This came as Senators on both sides threatened to put holds on the measure in order to get stimulus paid to Americans and deal with the defense spending bill which Trump had threatened to veto. This is all relevant to solar because the omnibus bill still stays in limbo and tax extenders may fall to the wayside or sneak in if folks are focused on getting big items passed.

The Vaccine Ships. If you’re enthralled with logistics processes like me, you’ll find this deep dive into how FedEx and UPS will be getting the vaccine to your local areas. With 20million Pfizer doses expected to reach patients by year end, the logistics challenge includes ramping up the manufacturing of dry ice.

VPPs Take Different Shapes, Big Dollars. Last week there were two headlines with similar yet different takeaways. OhmConnect, which reduces existing consumers loads on demand, raised $80million for a demand shaped virtual power plant in California. A new player, Swell Energy, announced Friday that it raised $450million for a 14,000 home virtual power plant in California from Ares and Aligned Climate Capital. There are three ways that this project could yield monetization above the energy production: Swell could enter into a contract with a utility similar to Sunrun and the Bay Area CCAs, CAISO and other CA agencies could provide pricing signals in the market for distributed resources, or FERC order 2222 gets implemented which paves the path for DER revenue streams. Regardless, offsetting grid electricity will become only a part of the future financial value of distributed solar.

Mid-Atlantic Power Market. Several mid-atlantic utilities are proposing an energy exchange with state regulators and plan on bringing it to FERC in the future. While not a power market per se, it shows that utilities see the need for access to generation to reach beyond arbitrary service territories on a map.

EU Sees Carbon Decline Upside. No doubt that 2020 has reimagined energy consumption and carbon pollution, dropping emissions by 7% in some regions. The Paris agreement is 5 years old now and EU is increasing their speed of delivery of even greater reductions. Some of this is made possible by the change in societal behavior but it’s also because of the trends in solar and wind generation costs, battery pricing and capabilities and global belief that EVs are the exclusive future. Reporting out of China shows that there could be a reduction or elimination of coal project financing/development globally and a ramp up of shutdowns within their own borders.

Faster Permitting. This is your weekly reminder that the lowest cost, fastest path to putting solar on every roof in America is to make solar permitting online and instant. Hawaii is showing us the way alongside the great efforts of SolarAPP.

Hot Jobs. Starting today you will see the return of the jobs listings on our daily newsletter. This popular feature which was too difficult for us to maintain in house will now be a partnership with our friends at EnergeiaWorks. I invite you to check out their jobs listings which will be updated weekly and support SolarWakeup partners. At any point, if you’d like a personal introduction, please let me know.

Solar For Clubs. My friends at Sustainable Capital Finance (SCF) have seen an uptick in interest for solar PPAs from schools, country clubs, and golf courses, as these off-takers have been impacted differently than other C&I energy consumers during the COVID-19 crisis. Golf & Country Clubs have seen increased revenue from golf and other outdoor activities, while schools would install solar while students aren’t on school grounds. In both scenarios, savings from a solar PPA are extremely attractive.Click here to learn more about how their subscription-free, proprietary software, the SCF suite, can help to speed up your PPA pricing and transaction process.

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for December 11th, 2020

Have A Great Weekend. Q4 is wrapping up and I think we’re all a little bit burnt out on 2020. More opinions and insights next week but make sure you catch my conversation with NexTracker’s CEO, Dan Shugar, this week on all your favorite podcast streams. Just search for SolarWakeup with Yann and you can subscribe, listen and share. It was an hour long conversation that easily could have gone six or seven.

Supply Chains Choke Up. If you are a buyer of products, now is the time to expand your time horizons to ensure continuity of supply. Manufacturers and research companies are underestimating the size of the market over the next two quarters and likely most of 2021. That means that there will be a limited amount of product to go around and if you’re not allocated, you may get hung out to dry. SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group is here to help, ensuring allocations for our members now. 

Opinion

Best, Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for December 10th, 2020

A Senate Energy Bill? Could it be possible? Will the Senate be able to pass a bipartisan energy bill in the new session? That’s the headline in the news today and remains an effort being led by Manchin/Murkowski, the most centrist of the Senators. Wait and see, but unlikely.

ESG Pension Funds. When pension funds or endowments divest, I tend to shrug my shoulders. Not because it’s not a big deal but because it is bound to happen anyway. If investing is determining the value of companies in the future, investing in fossil fuel companies is not a good idea over the next 30 years.

Development Platforms Get $. BayWa may be the distributor you know in the US but globally they are a massive renewable energy development firm as well. EIP, the investment firm, is taking a 49% stake in the company for over $600million. The investing thesis will tell you that this investment will be worth well more than a few years from now.

Talk About Dealflow. The untold piece of ESG investment is that currently there is more money than deal flow. This is momentary but the sellers, startups, and companies raising the money are likely to be in a position of power but also in a position to ensure that ESG capital doesn’t have excuses not to grow.

Supply Chains Choke Up. If you are a buyer of products, now is the time to expand your time horizons to ensure continuity of supply. Manufacturers and research companies are underestimating the size of the market over the next two quarters and likely most of 2021. That means that there will be a limited amount of product to go around and if you’re not allocated, you may get hung out to dry. SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group is here to help, ensuring allocations for our members now. 

Opinion

Best, Yann