This is your SolarWakeup for July 2nd, 2021

 Opinion

Best, Yann

 

This is your SolarWakeup for July 1st, 2021

Infra By Reconciliation. Yesterday we got our first view into what the White House wants in the second infrastructure bill which is (if it happens) going to pass by reconciliation and will require the vote of every Senate democrat. Highlight that you care about is a 100% clean energy standard and our requested package of renewable energy tax credits. Manchin has been less than committed to a CES though based on the press releases in my inbox yesterday, environmentalists don’t love the definition of CES that’s floating around which may mean that Manchin has been appeased by the broadening of the definition, i.e. clean coal may be considered a CES acceptable generator. First, you need Manchin’s vote to pass anything so maybe activists will be happy with losing while being ideological and second, clean coal isn’t a thing. Based on the uproar about the CES, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a red herring. A large swath of the Country already has states with 100% RPS standards and how would a federal government get a CES to be enforced anyways with energy largely regulated at the state level? I’ve always viewed a national RPS to be symbolic at best, focus FERC on strengthening PURPA contracts, speeding up interconnections and expanding pricing signals for storage on both sides of the meter.

Storage Versus Generation. There’s a new market view brewing in my head. I am getting increasingly uncomfortable with the storage replaces X generation. Storage is an enabler of choice, when to produce, when to dispatch and how to dispatch. For generators with land and interconnection, the addition of storage means additional revenue opportunity with a very quick development cycle. When that revenue opportunity crosses over the IRR hurdle, you’ll see an expansion of the build rate happen.

Radical Either Way. David Roberts writes that there is no moderate way to manage policy for the climate crisis. The view is that inaction is the more radical approach than an aggressive attack to counter emissions.

 Opinion

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This is your SolarWakeup for June 30, 2021

 Opinion

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This is your SolarWakeup for June 29, 2021

Demand Response Feedback. Over the coming months and maybe even a few weeks ago, we will see how robust the grid starting point is. Given the temperature spikes happening in the Northwest aren’t actually driving demand up since there are no A/C units, grid requirements didn’t get stressed to the levels that you would think but you’d have to forecast more folks buying window and other ventilation units that may change that. CAISO had a flex alert a few weeks ago and didn’t have to manage any shut offs or loss of grid but did tap into demand response, something that will be monitored closely in the coming months with several virtual power plants and demand response aggregations in place compared to last year.

Politics Means Talking Points. Former SecState Kerry is losing some diplomatic touch in his new role as climate envoy. Likening the fight on climate change to fighting a war may be met with agreement with one side of the table but even then it doesn’t gain any traction in the political arena. The slow nature of climate change is hard to fathom and the duration of the fight makes victory seem unachievable. Voters have a short memory and when it comes to policy in this ‘fight’ how can a decision today, reap political reward now rather than 10 years from now. In some ways, Kerry may have already pushed the boulder in the right direction, capitalism has made the energy transition inevitable, consumers favoring renewable energy and electrification of everything. The policy may be as simple as, making money means fighting climate change with a side benefit of saving lives and the planet.

Consolidation. You may have seen this in our coverage last week when it was announced that the former CEO of Vivint Solar is putting together a new group of solar installers, consolidating them into Lumio. They are now joined by Pineapple Energy, which in March announced a merger with a public company that is quasi reverse merging with the core business of the original public company being sold off. Pineapple has acquired two solar installers in Hawaii in addition to Horizon Solar Power which is the current day version of what is the original form of Sungevity. There are three big paths in the resi market today, grow big, get together or leverage the democratized services and go it alone. Let’s see if there is a wrong path. 

 Opinion

Best, Yann