This is your SolarWakeup for February 1st, 2020
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 29th, 2020
Have A Good Weekend. Plenty of news headlines to go back and catch up on from this week. Have a great weekend!
Don’t Miss. I visited with the team from GRNE Solar to talk about soft costs in solar. Catch the podcast here.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 28th, 2020
Shoals IPO Boom. It was a 24-year overnight success story for the man you all know, Dean Solon the founder and former CEO of Shoals. Shoals do simple things well and in the past few weeks introduced me to the category of eBOS. I said that it would be a boost to the industry if Shoals IPO went so well that the company would be valued at $2billion, but it closed at over $5billion in market cap on its first day of trading. While Oaktree sold around a 70million shares for a major gain for its investment, Dean Solon appears to be in it for the long run, still holding over a 65million shares of the company started and still operating in Tennessee. Trading under the ticker SHLS, count this as the entry ticket that says to every founder, executive, and operator in the solar industry that the billion-dollar exit and valuation can be in your future as well. Congratulations to the entire team.
Side Note. Shoals has a market cap of $5.2billion as of yesterday close of the market and FLEX has a market cap of $8.7billion. FLEX just happens to also own Nextracker, the largest supplier of tracking in the world.
Biden Climate Orders. There was a waterfall of climate-related activity from the White House yesterday as expected. The executive order for tackling the climate crisis ties in all aspects of the federal government. It also establishes the Office of Climate Justice at the Department of Justice, one of the most consequential paths for achieving the overarching goal of decarbonizing the electric grid by 2035 as called for by the executive order.
Envoy John Kerry Speaks. The foreign policy on climate change was a central part of John Kerry’s tenure as Secretary of State and now he’s taking the issue on full-time. What Biden is creating is a domestic/offshore 1-2 punch on climate policy with two executives that know the issue better than most.
Gina McCarthy Sets Tone. Gina McCarthy unveiled the administration’s tone on climate yesterday and through the accent, the policy tailwinds were loud and clear. It will now be up to the industry to coordinate, plan and lobby the administration in order to set the rules that actually implement the goals ahead. The plethora of goals is too long to handle, releasing more climate positive news in a day than the federal government has done since declaring independence.
Granholm Doubles Down. In her hearing on the hill, Jennifer Granholm explained to the Senators that a climate positive future is exactly what the economy and the Country needs right now. Jobs, from construction, manufacturing to finance and legal, are the lifeblood of the renewable energy markets. If the solar industry is set to sell a million solar homes, we will need to labor and management staff to install it. Granholm looks to join Pete Buttegieg in a quick confirmation in the Senate.
Deal Thursday. Joining the Shoals gangbusters day is EnterSolar and Loanpal. EnterSolar solidified its relationship with EDF by selling its remaining ownership to the company while Loanpal, which is just about 3 years old, raised a new $800million.
A Supply Chain Mess. Solar is growing everywhere and the US market continues to be underestimated. With our path to 1million solar homes installed in a few years, Australia at over 25% penetration, suppliers are having a hard time keeping up with demand. The SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group was meant to not only lower costs but also increase access by consolidating demand amongst its members. We’re doing that now, reducing lead times and saving money. Get in touch with us through our portal or hit reply to this email.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 27th, 2020
The Solar Tech Boom. I met the CEO of Sofdesk, Lennie Moreno, several years ago and you knew right away that he’s not going to let customers slip away. Tucked away in a nondescript Montreal office building, Lennie replicated a tech loft that built a popular software which may be the biggest exit for tech in solar thus far. It likely isn’t the biggest by dollar amount but it’s the type of software that can be built without expensive hardware solutions added on and with an exit on record, it will give VCs a liquidity event to seek to replicate. Sofdesk’s sale also brings Kelcy Pegler Jr back into the news, as he stood as the company’s Executive Chairman and investor for the past few years. While the former NRG Home Solar CEO is usually flying under the radar, seeking to remain out of the spotlight, this is the second major exit for the solar pro. The first exit came in 2014 when NRG’s David Crane acquired Kelcy’s Roof Diagnostics Solar, one of the largest residential solar installers in the Country at the time. When asked to comment via email, Kelcy responded with “Stay Tuned”
All About The Customer. In solar, there are many customers and for manufacturers it means making multiple people happy. If you make anything, you need to know how much to make, where to send it and which SKUs will be needed. Enphase has had trouble with making sure it’s rising product demand is met by the needed supply but with a major acquisition, they are about to get a lot smarter without upsetting the ecosystem. Enphase has acquired Sofdesk, the company behind the popular solar design software you know as Solargraf. Why would Enphase buy a design software with hundreds of installer customers? It’s not only the data but also the technology that will enable a more seamless integration of Enphase in design, proposals, permitting docs and more. But it also tells the company when a proposal goes out, to what city/state, and which sized module is proposed alongside the inverter. Integrated at scale, Enphase will be in a position to fulfill demand more efficiently. Will it include an order now button for installers? Who knows, but it could be the type of margin expansion that Enphase management seeks to grow every day.
The Full Wall Street. Forget ESG at this point, Wall Street is all in on the energy transition and climatization of businesses. See below for actual examples responding to this. In his annual shareholder letter, Larry Fink from BlackRock, is going further than he has in the past. He and through him, BlackRock’s 7.8 trillion AUM, is calling for full corporate climate disclosures and the business purpose beyond profit. It is also asking for the corporate’s plan on how they would be compatible in a net-zero economy.
The Utility Transition. I have officially been in solar long enough to be lectured to by a nuclear engineer turned CEO that nuclear energy is the future of the energy transition and then have the same person make the point that renewables are the lifeblood of that business and the energy transition to the extent that they have the entire utility lobby endorsing a 100% clean energy future. NextEra happens to be my utility and also the utility that may bring the distinction between solar and the utility business model to the most fundamental point, who owns the asset. For 15 years, NextEra has never openly seemed anti-renewable, even behind closed doors the utility was doing pilots and negotiating paths to building more solar. The sticking point was always ownership, which I grant you is not a small one especially when you care about competition, consumers and overall intellectual honesty. While NextEra announced that they target 30GW of renewables to be added on their balance sheet in the next 3 years, it is the announcement from EEI’s Tom Kuhn, which I credit to NextEra’s influence, that is most impressing today. “We are joining the growing call for a 100% clean energy future.”
Energy Wednesday. Governor turned Secretary of Energy nominee, Jennifer Granholm is on the hill today for her nomination hearing. Expectations are that the White House is also rolling out more executive action on climate. Of note in the personnel world, Energy Storage Association’s CEO Kelly Speakes-Backman has been appointed as the Principal Deputy Assistant Energy Secretary at DOE’s EERE and Energy Innovation’s Sonia Aggarwal is joining the White House as a senior advisor for climate policy and innovation.
A Supply Chain Mess. Solar is growing everywhere and the US market continues to be underestimated. With our path to 1million solar homes installed in a few years, Australia at over 25% penetration, suppliers are having a hard time keeping up with demand. The SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group was meant to not only lower costs but also increase access by consolidating demand amongst its members. We’re doing that now, reducing lead times and saving money. Get in touch with us through our portal or hit reply to this email.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 26th, 2020
It’s Deal Week. Lots of transactions yesterday and I think we are just getting started.
Shoals. The IPO is well oversubscribed and they have upsized their offering from 50 to 70million shares and increased their price range. It’s now expected that SHLS will raise/sell over $1.4billion in shares. Not bad for a $150million revenue company.
Sunlight Financial. If you’ve dialed into Phil Shen’s market updates that I participate in, you’ve seen Sunlight’s CEO on those calls. Unable to attend the past 2 times, you now know why. Sunlight is acquired by an Apollo backed SPAC and will be going public as well.
First Solar. What once saved the company is now being sold. First Solar is selling its development business to Leeward and will be focusing solely on manufacturing.
A Supply Chain Mess. Solar is growing everywhere and the US market continues to be underestimated. With our path to 1million solar homes installed in a few years, Australia at over 25% penetration, suppliers are having a hard time keeping up with demand. The SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group was meant to not only lower costs but also increase access by consolidating demand amongst its members. We’re doing that now, reducing lead times and saving money. Get in touch with us through our portal or hit reply to this email.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 25th, 2020
A Fed Response. Looking at the policy landscape, especially on solar and renewables, I wonder how close folks have looked at what ESG first monetary policy would look like. Solar on a roof can be a $1,200 per year stimulus for those living in the house or similar benefits for community solar customers. All we’d have to figure out how to lower the cost of money to the point that the capex of the investment is offset by the cost of staying with the status quo.
Infrastructure Week. Joe Manchin, with a bright spotlight on him at the 50th Senator, is calling for a $4 trillion infrastructure bill. He’s not ready to jump into renewables head first but he also knows that infrastructure spending won’t be building new coal plants, he just can’t say it out loud.
Fixing RTOs. There is no doubt that the last four years of attempted Federal takeover of state and regional energy policy has caused problem. Starting with the MOPR, RTOs and ISOs have to come back to the starting block and then implement state by state energy standards and goals. Moreover, they are looking at an energy demand that has been turned on its head and now is very residential. And then you add the electrification of transportation as well as the money losing power plants that are closing and you realize that the energy markets have to figure out how to price signal to developers the value of DERs and other distribution level grid investments. This is an important time to be a regulator.
Solar For All. With everything that we are talking about, in the market and in policy rooms, we have to ensure that the access to solar and solar generated electricity isn’t just for those that own a single family residence with southern exposure. Renters, low income families, and others without access to onsite solar must have reasonable alternatives with similar benefits. Low income families spend a giant percentage of their income on utilities and it would be a bad signal by our industry and supporters to forget that.
A Supply Chain Mess. Solar is growing everywhere and the US market continues to be underestimated. With our path to 1million solar homes installed in a few years, Australia at over 25% penetration, suppliers are having a hard time keeping up with demand. The SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group was meant to not only lower costs but also increase access by consolidating demand amongst its members. We’re doing that now, reducing lead times and saving money. Get in touch with us through our portal or hit reply to this email.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 22nd, 2020
Star Spangled Weekend. Yes, The Dead’s Bob Weir played at the Clean Energy for America Ball on Wednesday night but it was solar’s own, Dan Shugar, that played the intro Anthem. It was like having the Battle of the Bands back for a moment.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 21st, 2020
A Poet, A Poem, Capture America. “For while we have our eyes on the future, history has its eyes on us, This is the era of just redemption” That comes from the Inaugural Poet, Amanda Gorman. A lyrical rockstar who stole the show, just so you know. See it here.
An Oath And A Plan. President Biden took the stage and the oath before walking to the White House and quickly got to work. Look for a long set of climate-related, solar positive, actions coming from the oval office. You can see his announcements on Twitter.
The Climate Team. During the Inaugural Ball last night, Governor Granholm and Administrator McCarthy who are nominated for Secretary of Energy and Domestic Climate Coordinator respectively spoke to the large crowd of cleantech pros. They, along with dozens of others, will forge the arteries across the vast Federal government to ensure that climate positive actions are pulsing throughout the body of politics. Personnel is a policy and the personnel is in place and growing. One vote multiplied 80 million times brings resurrection to a future with the hope that we can nurture nature and leave a planet for our children that is in better shape than the one we’ve inherited.
Au Revoir Means Coming Back. Biden initiated the return to the Paris Climate Accords because when we left the global agreement it was not goodbye.
What Does It All Mean? I’ll be discussing this in a live webinar at 11am eastern this morning. The discussion is hosted by Roth Capital. Words you will hear on the call include, policy, supply chain, loan originations and SPACs. Maybe a word or two about President Biden.
A New FERC. The President’s party gets the majority of the seats on FERC, and yesterday Chair Danly chaired his last meeting.
Big Markets. BNEF is forecasting 192GW of solar in 2021, a trillion dollar market in the making.
California NEM 3.0. CALSSA is hosting a webinar to its members about the net metering 3.0 rule making and regulator proceedings. You can register for that here. If you’re not a member and would like to be, as the board member of CALSSA, I welcome your inquiry. If you’re not a member but operate in California, you can absolve your oversight by joining to ensure NEM 3.0 is solar friendly.
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 20th, 2020
A New Day. In 5 hours, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will be sworn in as President and Vice President. With the Georgia Secretary of State certifying the election yesterday, Warnock and Ossoff will also be sworn in today. While DC looks and feels different today, not just because of the pandemic and threat of insurrection but also because it’s getting back to a normal DC. A normal DC isn’t normal by any stretch of the imagination but it’s normal in the way that deals are made and bills are passed with everyone getting something. I’ve often said that the founders admired the mediocrity of the center where no-one gets everything and everyone gets something. Celebrate today and tomorrow get back to work because politics isn’t a spectator sport.
Have A Ball. Tonight you can join me and Billie Eilish at the Clean Energy for Biden Inauguration Ball. Tickets are available until 2pm Eastern. You can learn more and buy tickets here.
#Ride4Solar. No better way to start today than taking a ride for solar with your friends on the Peloton. Join us at 8am on the live ride with Cody Rigsby and invite your friends to join us. West coasters can join the ride later in the day, the highest output riders get to write a paragraph on SolarWakeup one day.
Shoals Road Show. On New Year’s Eve, Shoals filed for their IPO and now is managing their roadshow getting investors excited for the upcoming transparency and liquidity in the market. If at the end of the month their IPO goes well, and I expect that it will to the tune of a potential market cap over $1b, there is going to be a run on the markets including by those that are not ready for it.
Who’s Next? Most executives haven’t looked into it and realized that Shoals is only $150million in revenue with market margins. In many ways this is a trade that comps with Array Technologies as well as Enphase and Solaredge which will drive Shoals stock price higher. There are other solar companies in this range of revenue and margin and they are going to ask themselves how they can exit. First, you need to talk to the right people. Second, Shoals as well as Array before it, brought in a majority investor in Oaktree which gave the company years of professionalism and decades of relationships on wall street. There is no fast and easy path to what they’re doing but it can be done. Happy to chat with you if this is talking to you. Lastly and most importantly, I would be shocked if activist investors don’t get louder and more aggressive with Flex in the effort to spin out Nextracker. This is the most withheld value in solar public companies today.
The Rivian Raise. I don’t see Rivian as a Tesla competitor, in many ways it’s a sibling that also started a venture to compete with the status quo that is simply moving too slow. The Rivian SUV and pickup are great looking vehicles that will start shipping later this year. With another $2.6billion on the balance sheet, it looks like a good year for them as well.
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 19th, 2020
The Big Tent. Developing solar has a big tent and needs to be expanded. Solar definitely has a NIMBY aspect, local communities when they are not involved in the process tend to fight against the idea. Joe Biden said this about transmission during the campaign season. We also need to be aware of the different communities that should be consulted and involved including Native American tribes. By including more groups we will find more supporters.
Climate Through Energy. Before he is sworn in, Biden is already saying that the Keystone XL permit will be canceled. If you remember, this was one of the first issues Trump took on when he came into office. This is not just an environmental statement but also a finality to the type of fuel we will need as a Country for the future. Transportation will be electric, bringing down dirty oil does not have a longterm economic certainty. The overlap between environmental impact and energy will be far and wide, providing economic opportunity for innovators and market participants like many of us.
VPP En Masse. A new player is getting a VPP contract in Hawaii. Swell energy recently raised $450million in capital from Ares and Aligned. The reality is that while VPPs are largely focused on platform owned projects will be at the benefit of individual homeowners. Storage does not need to be owned by 3rd parties for homeowners to benefit from putting their distributed resource into an aggregation, something that large players aren’t saying out loud because they are hoping for the sales pitch against individual ownership to continue.
Correction. Yesterday I said that Trump extended the 201 tariffs for modules, which was an error. The 201 tariffs for solar have been initiated for review to determine the extension by Trump but not actually extended. Apologies for the mistaken information.
Inauguration Week. On Wednesday, Joe Biden will be sworn in as the 46th President of the United States. While solar has always soared above the partisan politics of DC or States, there is an undeniable alignment between the solar industry’s and Biden administration’s goals. The Clean Energy for Biden team is hosting an inaugural ball, taking shape in a different format, that you can attend from the comfort of your home. Some of the industry’s biggest supporters and names will be in attendance, will you join? You can learn more and buy tickets here.
Calling All Peloton Riders. Like many of you stuck in quarantine, unable to get to the gym, I joined the cult of Peloton. I have been watching and riding with some friends and realized that while we are apart, this brings us together in camaraderie and competition. You may have also seen that SEIA’s CEO, Abby Hopper, is an avid Pelotoner so we figured it’s time to #Ride4Solar. Add the hashtag to your profile to network with other solar pros, other cleantechers are welcome of course. Tomorrow, we’re taking the 8am Cody Rigsby live class if you want to join live or take it later in the day. Just another way to be together! #Ride4Solar
Join The Residential Solar Rocketship. Suntuity Solar is one of the fastest growing solar companies in the Country and we’re looking to hire the best to join us. Our executive team is hiring for VP of Operations, HR Director, Director of Talent and more positions at all levels of experience. If you or someone you know is looking to expand their career, send Suntuity an email!
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Yann