This is your SolarWakeup for January 22nd, 2023
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 19th, 2023
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 17th, 2023
Intersolar Day 1. Anything you think I should see at Intersolar? As I tour San Diego, ERCOT enters its second day of conservation and looks to operate itself through a challenge. Meanwhile we have soaring demand for more electricity from the energy transition and economic growth. These challenges present opportunities and conferences offer a glimpse on the companies seeking to rise to the occasion.
Tax Markets Working. At the Voltility event a few months ago the talk on tax credit transfer market was quite optimistic and the data seems to confirm that. This means a solid market for capital structures that seek to build out the infrastructure we all work in. There are some new structures that are quite interesting, would be great to have a few of you pitch the best new ideas in capital formation.
Demand Met By Renewables, Storage, DERs and Grids. Today’s top note highlights the prediction for the year. The grid is stretched and operators are like a stretch Armstrong connecting rising demand (faster than predicted) and generation that is more flexible in both when it produces and how/where it delivers energy to consumers. Now the market needs to match the demand for new build of generation, storage and transmission with the requirement for new market products for those assets and DERs to ensure grid stability remains.
Europe Builds Ecosystem. In an effort to help create a manufacturing ecosystem in Europe, the government is stepping up with a $5billion package for Northvolt. Think of this as the European version of a loan guarantee.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 16th, 2023
See You In San Diego. If you find yourself at Intersolar this week, come by the FlexGen booth and say hello.
NEM 3.0 Disaster. The situation in California is dire, layoffs are impacting most businesses and demand is off a possible 40%. Some installers are saying that the cost of the install is more doubling with the addition of storage but without additional revenue streams, the payback is nearly 10 years. In reality, CAISO needs the aggregated demand provided by residential storage to maintain long term stability but the revenue streams are not matching that need. The pleas from the industry don’t appear to have infiltrated Sacramento or the governor’s mansion thus far, which is unfortunate.
ERCOT Challenged. While you’re reading this, ERCOT will likely be at it’s closest demand reserve, far less margin than operators would like to see. The cold snap hitting so much of the Country can isolate the most fragile portions of the grid infrastructure, with a single event possibly starting a chain reaction that leaves many without power.
The Smart Home. CES happened last week and the smart home remained a big portion of the tech event. For me, the smart home seems to have focused itself on what’s available on Amazon and connects with Alexa. I consider myself willing to try new tech but the single platform ecosystem has eluded me thus far, only a few apps have found a niche home in my smart home, centered around lighting.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 12th, 2023
Congrats. To the team at Orka for being acquired by Sunstone Credit. Lending is hard, C&I is harder, combine the two and you have a challenge ahead of you. Glad to see that come together for a team that deserves it and opportunity to keep growing this.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 11th, 2023
The Polar Vortex Test. Over the next week the weather may not align with grid forecasts. Yesterday’s storm matched with ice conditions knocked out power to over 500k consumers across the east and another vortex is coming from the Canadian border. In the southeast we’ve had an unseasonably windy winter. ERCOT is looking at the weather forecast and has a rather tight operating window a week from today and that’s assuming everything works as it’s supposed to which we should all hope for.
Profits Sit With Risks. Herein lies the answer to the NYT’s opinion piece. Comparing renewables to oil or gas is flawed in its analysis with regard to profits. Solar and wind have a capital structure that centers around certainty with little room for volatility, i.e. no fuel costs and predictable operating expenses with a contract for revenue. Most power plants operate differently, producing energy on a dispatch or traded basis with much shorter contracts that allow room for upside. Fuel costs are inherently volatile when long term hedges don’t exist.
Managing Installer Cash Flow. Interest rates are the highest in 22 years, increasing solar financing costs and softening consumer demand for loan products. Businesses are feeling the pain of strained cash flows, labor costs and profitability pressures. Palmetto, a B2B technology company accelerating the adoption of clean energy, has announced a new partnership offering for solar installers to help stabilize cash flows and grow faster in today’s market. Built on top of Palmetto’s Clean Energy Operating Platform, this is a comprehensive suite of tools and services enabling installers to streamline operations, optimize performance, and increase profitability. Visit https://www.palmetto.com/finance or contact capital@palmetto.com for more.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 10th, 2023
Managing Installer Cash Flow. Interest rates are the highest in 22 years, increasing solar financing costs and softening consumer demand for loan products. Businesses are feeling the pain of strained cash flows, labor costs and profitability pressures. Palmetto, a B2B technology company accelerating the adoption of clean energy, has announced a new partnership offering for solar installers to help stabilize cash flows and grow faster in today’s market. Built on top of Palmetto’s Clean Energy Operating Platform, this is a comprehensive suite of tools and services enabling installers to streamline operations, optimize performance, and increase profitability. Visit https://www.palmetto.com/finance or contact capital@palmetto.com for more.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 9th, 2023
The Locational Value. Community solar has the keys to two of the biggest values in solar. First, it removes single offtaker credit risk, whether credit is for default or leverage on renegotiation. For every homeowner or tenant that cancels, there’s a waiting list of additional offtakers ready to take their place. Second, it no longer associates load with immediate location which makes it easier to create a value proposition. Every day, we read about need for housing and more density, but meeting that density requires capacity that has to be met by community solar. Regulators should be tripling down on this market alongside generation aggregation programs.
Come Work With Me. I’m adding a few folks to my team at FlexGen. As you know, we’ve been building out the energy storage ecosystem with our services and the leading EMS platform in batteries. With the growth of the market, our team needs to continue to expand. I’ve had the pleasure of working with some of the best across solar and storage over the past decades and want to continue that trend. Here is the link to apply
Managing Installer Cash Flow. Interest rates are the highest in 22 years, increasing solar financing costs and softening consumer demand for loan products. Businesses are feeling the pain of strained cash flows, labor costs and profitability pressures. Palmetto, a B2B technology company accelerating the adoption of clean energy, has announced a new partnership offering for solar installers to help stabilize cash flows and grow faster in today’s market. Built on top of Palmetto’s Clean Energy Operating Platform, this is a comprehensive suite of tools and services enabling installers to streamline operations, optimize performance, and increase profitability. Visit https://www.palmetto.com/finance or contact capital@palmetto.com for more.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for January 8th, 2023
Let’s Catch Up. Welcome to 2024, I hope you all enjoyed your break, doing whatever kept you busy. For the many new subscribers, welcome to SolarWakeup. For returning subscribers, thank you and please forward this newsletter to someone that may enjoy our daily chats. I’ll be at Intersolar North America next week if you are there to say hello! Lastly, please engage with our sponsors that help keep this community thriving and consider joining the ranks. We are the oldest and largest newsletter in the solar industry and now’s a great time to reach your target audience by sponsoring SolarWakeup.
Mild Winter Meets Winter Storm. Grid planning is always a tale of two extremes. While the winter has been so light that owning a ski resort may be the worst investment idea of 2024, planners are sounding the alarm on what would happen if a weather event strains supply with a major gas plant retiring in May. I’ll note that sounding this alarm is an amazing economic lobby for higher payments by the power markets to keep the plant operating. This has happened several times in the past and could be the case here once again. On the other hand, this should also increase the focus on having new generation and storage approved for construction and revenues.
An Economy’s Bandwidth. Talk to any economic development professional and they will tell you that the biggest hurdle for them is access to grid connection. Our pain of interconnection is similar for those looking to build new factories, data centers or offices. There simply isn’t enough bandwidth on the grid to build our the economic development at the pace that capitalism is trying to build it.
California Needs A 180. It’s a shame to see the turn that the California residential solar market has taken. Ultimately, the economy needs rooftop solar to be robust and enable those connected assets to be interconnected and ultimately become the reliable asset that they can be. But none of that will happen if the ecosystem that has been built over 20 years is left to wither. Unfortunately the headlines of the layoffs will continue until regulators reengage in a fruitful discussion with industry on stopping this.
Storage Growth Intelligence. So much to be said about the storage market and how it could evolve in various markets. I’m heading to London next month to check in on the happenings across the pond but in the US market analysis says that growth should be robust. One of the things that’s becoming clear is that portfolios will be built, they will use various suppliers based on supply availability and regulators will require upgrades (which has already happened). Asset owners will need to run those assets efficiently and reliably while ultimately realizing that they will also need to perform robust data analytics across their portfolio. Not all controls are created equal and they will likely not work on an interconnected basis across platforms, so making that decision intelligently is part of that game. With three major trade shows this year from ISNA, ACP and RE+ (forever SPI), you’ll see how much storage talk happens across those convention floors
Managing Installer Cash Flow. Interest rates are the highest in 22 years, increasing solar financing costs and softening consumer demand for loan products. Businesses are feeling the pain of strained cash flows, labor costs and profitability pressures. Palmetto, a B2B technology company accelerating the adoption of clean energy, has announced a new partnership offering for solar installers to help stabilize cash flows and grow faster in today’s market. Built on top of Palmetto’s Clean Energy Operating Platform, this is a comprehensive suite of tools and services enabling installers to streamline operations, optimize performance, and increase profitability. Visit https://www.palmetto.com/finance or contact capital@palmetto.com for more.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 22nd, 2023
Adieu 2023. You’ll hear from me one more time in 2023, as I recap the storylines that will remind me of this rather strange year. So this will be the last regularly scheduled newsletter for the year and an interesting thought popped into my head as I sat down to write this. BNEF’s Nat Bullard, who started writing his weekly rundown 2 years after I did, announced today that he will be ending Sparklines after a 9 year run. NREL also used to have a newsletter that ended circa 2013. I’m not ending the SolarWakeup run, while many of you have commented that I’ve been writing less, which is true, I still enjoy getting the news out to you. Which means that SolarWakeup will continue its run as the most influential newsletter in solar (and storage). I also don’t have hundreds of thousands of subscribers (though I think I should) because this isn’t my job. Writing this newsletter is how I get better at my day job, it makes me learn every day about what is going on and then have a thought about it. This level of routine, which is not in my DNA, has forced me to take into account so many different market variables and then publicly challenge you to correct me on that view if I’m wrong. So here’s to many more rundowns and thoughts, with your job being two things. First, I hope you value this enough to tell folks that they should subscribe and second, you challenge and correct me on my views so that we can find ways to keep getting better at this.
Managing Installer Cash Flow. Interest rates are the highest in 22 years, increasing solar financing costs and softening consumer demand for loan products. Businesses are feeling the pain of strained cash flows, labor costs and profitability pressures. Palmetto, a B2B technology company accelerating the adoption of clean energy, has announced a new partnership offering for solar installers to help stabilize cash flows and grow faster in today’s market. Built on top of Palmetto’s Clean Energy Operating Platform, this is a comprehensive suite of tools and services enabling installers to streamline operations, optimize performance, and increase profitability. Visit https://www.palmetto.
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Yann