This is your SolarWakeup for June 10th, 2021
First Solar Grows. First Solar announced that they are expanding their manufacturing plant in Ohio by 3.3GW. This will be the 3rd plant in Ohio and will start manufacturing in 2023. First Solar is doubling down on the domestic manufacturing advantage they have, in part due to the supply chain differentiation the company has. If only the Ohio legislators saw the ability to create local policies that would enable First Solar modules to gain a market within the surrounding areas of this job boom.
Oil Majors, Look Out. Last week came the results but this week the oil majors are pivoting into the PR push by investors and outside influencers. We’ve covered multiple times that I see the oil majors are looking at electricity as a transportation fuel replacement and will be getting into the generation, transmission, trading and retail sale. This marks the start of the future competition between utilities, IPPs and oil majors.
It’s Real. In case you wanted to know if storage markets were expanding, they are and they will continue to grow.
Soft Costs. It’s shaping up to be a big summer for soft cost reduction with the launch of SolarAPP and with continued innovation from the leading solar software companies. OpenSolar, today announced a partnership with the largest US design and engineering firm GreenLancer, connecting OpenSolar’s highly regarded 3D design and sales toolkit with the on-demand planset generation service reportedly used by over 5,000 contractors. With OpenSolar bringing experience from its users in over 100 countries, Birchy and the new US team I know are focused on supporting US installers to drive down costs (Australia remember is at $1.10 per W residential cost all in, with 25% solar penetration). They launched their ‘Opportunity Wide Open’ summer series today, in which they’ll share a range of resources and tips to help solar contractors reduce cost and scale. There will be a lot of approaches but good to see partnerships in technology creating savings for the solar community.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 9th, 2021
Q1 Storage Grows. The acceleration in pipeline, backlog and construction within energy storage is real. With 2020 showing the signs of a grid looking for additional ancillary services and consumers adding behind the meter storage, 2021 continued to build on this with rapid expansion of generation+ and stand alone storage. The Texas winter storm in February showed the need for frequency regulation which is likely to be seen again this summer in western states suffering from record droughts.
Report On Solar Forecast. kWh Analytics and 12 contributors published the Solar Risk Assessment report which shows that the P99 estimates for production (P99 meaning that this should be accurate 99% of the time) are not often actually modeled accurately. The report also goes into detail about the degradation estimates for modules and the issues that are affecting the module quality.
Green Hydrogen Targets. Los Angeles and the Department of Energy made news with green hydrogen yesterday. After a decade of targeting record solar costs which were surpassed ahead of schedule, DOE is taking their talents to hydrogen. A note of history, my first solar module supplier was Uni-Solar, a division of Energy Conversion Devices and one of their science project divisions was solid state hydrogen fuel storage for the automotive sector and the corresponding fueling systems. Like many items at ECD, I don’t think this was every commercialized but a note of intersection for our readers.
Soft Costs. It’s shaping up to be a big summer for soft cost reduction with the launch of SolarAPP and with continued innovation from the leading solar software companies. OpenSolar, today announced a partnership with the largest US design and engineering firm GreenLancer, connecting OpenSolar’s highly regarded 3D design and sales toolkit with the on-demand planset generation service reportedly used by over 5,000 contractors. With OpenSolar bringing experience from its users in over 100 countries, Birchy and the new US team I know are focused on supporting US installers to drive down costs (Australia remember is at $1.10 per W residential cost all in, with 25% solar penetration). They launched their ‘Opportunity Wide Open’ summer series today, in which they’ll share a range of resources and tips to help solar contractors reduce cost and scale. There will be a lot of approaches but good to see partnerships in technology creating savings for the solar community.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 8th, 2021
The Solar Market Update. Today at 11am Eastern, I join Phil Shen of Roth Capital (subscribe to his newsletter), for our monthly resi solar market update. We’ll be talking about supply chain, financing, policy and of course, storage. You can register at this link.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 7th, 2021
The Drought And Effect. The west is dry and while we all hope for the best, there are already worrisome signs of wildfires and lack of water for agriculture. The energy effect will be more power shutoffs than before and a grid that consumers will consider unreliable. Grid planners have not adjusted any major items to ensure new infrastructure is built out but if I were still living in California, I’d be making sure my solar and battery were ready for primetime.
Low Capacity Bailouts. Expect to see more bailout legislation coming out after the low capacity clearing price in PJM. Nuclear operators will be legislating towards ZREC policies that provide a kicker for their plants but always opens up opportunities to get a broader energy package passed.
SolarAPP+ Thanks. It has been a village to get SolarAPP+ to where it is today and there are many people that are integral to this process and without ignoring everyone’s efforts I want to call out one particular person. Andrew Birch, a co-founder of Sungevity and current co-founder of OpenSolar, first pitched me the idea of instant/uniform permit policy over 3 years ago on his patio in Alameda. He’s been tenaciously cheerleading the effort and getting the biggest names and companies in the solar business to spend time, money and sweat on the effort. I told him then that it would be an uphill climb, and some of you emailed me when I first brought you the idea agreed that it was crazy to think this was possible. So for having the willpower to bring an idea to fruition against all odds without ever asking for credit, here’s a token of appreciation from me.
Will Manchin Deliver? Joe Manchin remains unpopular but very powerful and in some ways is taking the infrastructure bill on his shoulders to bring a bipartisan support of the bill to reality. We’re getting very close to seeing whether he can deliver the votes and give Biden the bipartisan win his 47 years of government would assume he could get.
The Solar Market Update. Tomorrow, I join Phil Shen of Roth Capital (subscribe to his newsletter), for our monthly resi solar market update. We’ll be talking about supply chain, financing, policy and of course, storage. You can register at this link.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 4th, 2021
New Spending, No Tax Increase. Biden and Senate republicans are going back and forth on the infrastructure bill which will be massively popular with voters. Biden looks to give in on tax hikes as long as republicans agree with $1trillion of new spending. Senate dems are putting up a 10-day shot clock before making their case for doing it by reconciliation. Solar advocates say that ITC extension looks solid but issues around labor and domestic content remain, though outcomes appear workable.
Climate Warning Signs. Two independent transactions with high-profile names are getting into climate event prediction and analytics. I guess knowing that your house will flood before it floods can be considered a valuable data point. This also marks TPG’s Rise Fund’s first major investment announced since former Treasury secretary Hank Paulson joined the fund as executive chairman.
AB 1139 Defeated. This was a bad bill doing bad things that are completely counter to the market and climate goals in California. Moreover, legislation that undermines existing market rules would create a new risk analysis in solar that would have impacted all parts of the ecosystem. Led by CALSSA and it’s 600+ members plus allies, advocates came out and maneuvered the opposition to victory.
Talk About Capital. I’ll ask this on a high level with a promise to talk more about it with you in the near future. Solar and wind investors look for stable returns on contracted cash flow with conservative assumptions for tail revenue post contact term. Energy storage can play a role for solar+ contracts but what capital pool will be an investor in the merchant storage assets and how will a stand alone storage ITC get a tax equity deal done? Same pool of capital but higher hurdle rates or different capital all together?
Enjoy your weekend!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 3rd, 2021
Behind The Scenes. In this newsletter and my interactions with reporters in my professional capacity, I try to give a real account of what I am thinking and how I view the market opportunity. Part of joining FlexGen was being part of a team with Kelcy Pegler and joining a team at FlexGen that has been leading the energy storage market with expertise for over a decade. On the other hand, I was concerned about the timing of energy storage in the overall energy transition. I knew that storage was a crucial element of the transition but joining FlexGen was a decision made before the Texas freeze event which cemented the variables that influenced my decision and confirmed that the decision was a good one. My conversation with Andy Colthorpe from Energy Storage News gives you a view of how we view the market and the opportunities for everyone reading this to start adding storage to their pipeline right now too.
Exxon Loses Another Seat. Exxon vote tallies show that Engine No.1 has another director joining the board. Andy Karsner should be well known to some of you, at one point during the Bush years, Karsner was the highest-ranked Moroccan American in the US government, interesting mostly to me since my family stems from Morocco as well. Karsner most recently spent time at Emerson Collective and comes with a technology view on solving for climate change. As a former wind developer, Karsner was early in building his renewable credentials which will hopefully enable Exxon to see the energy transition as an opportunity not a threat to their business model.
The Big Freeze Inflection. It is becoming clear that winter storm Uri that hit Texas in February of this year is going to be an inflection point for the energy market. The value of winterization, threat of losing frequency on the grid, and realistic event of having to black start generation are all entering analysis in a way that was always viewed as too nuanced before the storm.
PJM Results. The results came in and capacity pricing came in light, some pointing to the lower reserve margins as the leading cause. Coal cleared 8GW less than the last auction and some plants are threatening to shut down due to the low pricing.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 2nd, 2021
PJM Auction Results. With the PJM capacity auction results coming this week, expect headlines countering a renewables trend. Under the MOPR developed by the Trump administration, gas and some coal plants are expected to clear the auction and gain another round of survival. This is a policy driven result that does not mean anything for the future of renewables both from a cost or regulatory perspective. As you read the headlines, make sure you counter the argument that baseload is a real thing. In reality, we are transitioning to a power market that will value all parts of energy generation, transmission and regulation at a much more granular level which provides real value to energy storage assets in a power market (PJM) where storage has yet to really gain traction. Stay tuned…
Bus and Fleet Market. BYD and Proterra are the EV buses that you all know and more are coming. There will be no shortage of manufacturers that either OEM their own or use 3rd party technology, commercial fleets and buses will electrify. The opportunity is going to be segmented in two additional follow ons besides selling and servicing the hardware. First and more interestingly is the 3rd party ownership of those fleets, especially as it comes to transit groups and schools districts. If I weren’t fully involved at FlexGen with energy storage already, I’d be looking to finance electric school bus fleets. Taking the capital cost away from cash strapped school districts and financing them like we did with solar is a great capital deployment opportunity. Second is the contract to provide the electricity that the buses need, a fuel contract that is likely driven to actually be a renewable electricity contract as districts look to reach their environmental goals.
Distributed Congestion. There is another aspect to fleet electrification. Whether it’s a fleet of buses or delivery vans, they tend to drive a predictable route during the day and sit dormant at night. This means that fleets will have to charge in a small window of time, at the same time. By creating a new local peak for energy and capacity, the cost curve of the local market could react, actually creating an inconvenient supply and demand situation. Depending on the node, a large enough peak, charging a high power rates (like buses do) could create congestion pricing that is also not currently happening. In every problem lies an opportunity especially for the financier of the fleets, to control the energy contract and add a grid damper in the form of energy storage at the fleet charging location. By being a market maker and not a price taker (my coined phrase highlighting the value of storage), the fleet location could become a dynamic source of congestion or relief depending on how the asset is utilized, potentially creating additional arbitrage revenue opportunity for the finance company/asset owner. All of this backed by the school district cash flow on the bus financing, neatly packaged in an investment grade contract.
Buying Pipelines. Oil majors versus utilities, basically corporate giants that have 50 years corporate bond capital at sub 2% cost, are coming for the generation. That generation is being acquired earlier from developers, like BP acquiring 9GW pipeline from 7X Energy and putting it through their Lightsource platform. Pipelines are the valuation of opportunities that have real estate (or options), interconnections (or application/queue positions) and revenue streams (or power market pricing). The majors, as we outlined a few weeks ago, are well positioned to, potentially better than most utilities, to maximize the revenue streams from these pipelines. They are already managing the book of contracts for many retail energy providers plus getting into retail energy themselves (like BP did a few weeks ago). And if you remember what I wrote at that time, I highlighted the need to be offering retail energy contracts to fleets that are electrifying so they don’t lose the revenue stream when those fleets go from fuel to energy. This entire day of news is connected, and interconnects serviced by energy storage are the glue that hold the thesis together.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 1st, 2021
All Roads To West Virginia. The White House is working with Senator Manchin to drive a bipartisan option for the infrastructure bill which is currently gapped by some $700billion between the two sides. To get the reach to the other side of the aisle, Biden’s team is working with Senator Capito from WV and her group of Senators to find ways to make the bill approvable from their perspective. The two sides are talking and while there is public disagreement about where things stand, both Capito and Buttigieg seem to be indicating optimistic potential to find a road forward.
The Undertones. West Virginia needs the economic uplift that the infrastructure bill provides. In a world where coal has been driven out by capitalism, West Virginia is ready, willing and able to provide the support America needs for physical infrastructure and adopting climate change solutions. I note that the state legislature in WV recently approved solar leases and while WV is very red, it is also very unionized for labor and overlaps with the goals of the infrastructure bill. There are also billions in allocations for coal mine decommissioning and local infrastructure work that Manchin and Capito would like to bring home.
Taxes. You haven’t head a lot about the infrastructure bill adding to the deficit. Infrastructure spending is very popular on both sides of the electorate and Biden had proposed a $2.2trillion bill that was fully funded by recouping half of the tax cuts passed in the previous administration. The GOP is going to trade the tax rate increases for a smaller infrastructure bill using deficit spending instead of increasing the tax rate and nobody wants the public to really know that everyone in DC loves deficit spending when it creates revenue for every congressional district in America.
A Map Of Need. The NYT has a nice visualization of where in America we need to built more solar and wind. You’ll see that the map has pockets of resource that then rely on transmission to spread the electrons to the demand pockets which are not always overlapping with the resources.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 28th, 2021
Have A Great Weekend. This will be the week that highlights another significant set of events in the energy transition. If you want to see how far we’ve come, read the IEA’s World Energy Outlook from 2012.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 27th, 2021
The Climate Pendulum Swings. Big news from a shareholder vote at the Exxon shareholder meeting. It appears, at first indication, that Engine No. 1, an activist investor, has won the election of at least two board seats that are considered to be in line with the fund’s climate change-related goals. Reporting highlights the need for final vote counts as the activist attempted to win four board seats but Exxon losing the election of two of their preferred directors is near unprecedented.
Emissions Must Be Reduced. At the same time, in the Netherlands, Shell was told by a Dutch court that it was obliged to lower emissions by 45% by 2030 compared to 2019. This was related to the impact that the company was causing to people though the Court gave in to the company saying that current emissions were not unlawful. The company expects to appear the decision which is not expected to be enforceable beyond the Dutch border.
So Many Billions. Ford announced it would invest $30billion to build out its electric vehicle manufacturing.
Advocate For Storage. SEIA announced yesterday that it was launching a Storage Advocacy Network. CEO, Abby Hopper, said “There is a massive gap between our energy storage goals and where we are now, and business as usual is not a recipe for success.” I guess it’s a good time to get into energy storage?
Bill Speaks, Listen. The biggest question regarding the anti-solar legislation is how it is even possible in this era. Why would the State that has invested so much in building out the solar market turn that around with a single bill? A bill you say? Bill Walton says no dice to AB 1139 and he’s getting involved!
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Yann