This is your SolarWakeup for October 6th, 2021

Gas Is The Talk. Natural gas pricing is skyrocketing, aimed to go even higher. Possibly as high as they’ve been this millennium. The global energy crunch is coming and the PR campaign to blame renewables is already starting. Interesting considering, gas capacity is as high as ever and it’s the commodity price alone that is creating the price impacts.

Energy Costs This Winter. The forecast for this winter is not pretty, some forecasting natural gas prices over $10/mmBtu. That is real money for families across the Country and takes money directly out of discretionary spending that would otherwise go into the economy.

SunPower Goes Vertical. With their quarterly earnings, SunPower announced it was buying Blue Raven Solar and looking to get out of C&I by potentially selling that division. Interesting to see the consolidation towards the Sunrun business model happening across the market.

Big Win By CALSSA. California’s Attorney General filed an answer to the CALSSA lawsuit in court yesterday, saying the regulator would delay implementation of their plan to make solar installer fulfill unnecessary licensing requirements. Last month, the solar trade organization had no choice but to respond by attacks on the industry by filing suit on the licensing issue. Fight is not over (it never is) and all focus temporarily goes to NEM 3.0 at the CPUC. 

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Yann


This is your SolarWakeup for October 5th, 2021

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This is your SolarWakeup for October 4th, 2021

Biden Gets Involved. The President went to Congress last week and linked the two infrastructure bills, the bipartisan bill and the budget reconciliation. Pelosi couldn’t bring the bipartisan bill to the floor last week and has set a Halloween deadline to get things done even though there is a 2-week recess coming up. The question now comes down to price tag on the social safety net bill, which is what most of you are keen to see because the 10 year ITC extension for solar at 30%, ITC for standalone storage and direct pay for small solar is expected to be packaged in that bill. The showdown is between the House Progressive Caucus and Senators Sinema and Manchin who are not ready to sign on to the $3.5trillion ask in the House. To put it into context, this is a 10 year spending number and Congress passed a defense authorization over $7trillion last week.
Tesla Delivers And Elon Forecasts. Tesla delivered over 240k new cars last quarter, mostly their model 3 and Y version which have a more than 6 month delivery wait currently. This is not a new statement from Elon, but he reiterated that the continued shift to electric transportation will require a doubling of global electricity generation.

The Global Energy Crisis. You’re starting to hear it, the fuel shortage in Europe for oil and gas causing lines at gas stations and price increases for electricity, the rationing of electricity in China causing factories to lower production forecasts and then the gas price spikes in the US. It’s a global energy crisis and don’t look now but most utilities are upside down on their fuel forecasts for low cost natural gas power plants that consumers will have to pick up the extra costs for. A hard winter in the northeast could be a financial disaster with fuel futures showing much higher costs than previous winters.

California’s Path To Energy Resilience. The most frustrating political fight is California legislators and regulators singing the tune for 100% renewables but then allowing net metering changes to go to the goal line with the threat to eliminate the crucial policy for distributed energy. This isn’t just about solar on homes but also microgrids for manufacturing and schools that allow for the economy to keep moving forward if transmission is impacted by extreme weather events.

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Yann


This is your SolarWakeup for October 1st, 2021

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This is your SolarWakeup for September 30th, 2021

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This is your SolarWakeup for September 29th, 2021

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This is your SolarWakeup for September 28th, 2021

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This is your SolarWakeup for September 27th, 2021

Infrastructure Bill, First Or Last? Pelosi went on the Sunday shows yesterday and said that the bipartisan infrastructure bill was going to pass the House this week. While the bill doesn’t have the ITC extension it has billions for energy transition funding including EVs and transmission. There will be a bit of a showdown between the progressives and the leadership, though some members of the republican caucus have said that they would support the bill. How Pelosi plans to put pressure on the caucus and Senate for the budget bill is the bigger trick, one which she has not telegraphed yet. With the debt ceiling in play, it would be the forcing issue within their own house to get something done.

FERC Reviews Texas Freeze. FERC published their report on what happened over the multi-day power stress event caused by freezing temperatures in mid-February. It also includes some 28 recommendations, some of which should be put in place prior to next winter.

Going Long Storage. It’s not just about investing in storage but also investing in long duration storage technologies. The technologies are coming to market and now getting support from the team at DOE that also lead the SunShot initiative over the past decade plus. With longer duration technologies showing early signs of success, their interoperability with storage software will create the first marks of their bankability. As we’ve seen with early solar tech, lab to reality is one challenge but also getting project capital approval is another.

Making Storage Run. Taking bankability into storage has multiple levels. The battery is only one part of the equation, getting it to run as desired to the designed use case with inverters and power electronics is another. The most underappreciated technical challenge is the controls and software that actually tell the battery what to do, based on what the trader/owner and grid operator want. This intersection between hardware and software is the energy storage tech bankability challenge that is just getting to the surface but we will talk about much more.

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Yann


This is your SolarWakeup for September 23rd, 2021

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This is your SolarWakeup for September 22nd, 2021

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Yann