This is your SolarWakeup for March 9th, 2022

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This is your SolarWakeup for March 8th, 2022

The Global Oil Impact. An inflationary conundrum would be the delicate way to describe the current situation on oil. First, it makes all the sense in the world to cut Russian oil exports off. The Country is a gas station at this moment with no ability to generate income outside of energy. That was the increase in pricing that you saw on Sunday afternoon with the rest of us as oil popped to $140/barrel and has settled back down to the $120s. Whether you’re buying wheat and barley (stock up on your beer) or steel and lithium, costs are rising for inflationary and macro reasons.

Next Move, Politically Speaking. US politicians are likely to give Biden no choice on a Russian oil import ban, both for political reasons (he will be blamed for higher gas prices/domestic production will have to increase/force a deal on domestic energy independence) as well as diplomatic reasons (Russia is unlikely to sustain a global import ban for long). You are hearing the White House speak up and blame the oil sector for not producing on the leases they currently hold while Manchin is saying let’s make a deal that increases production and delivers the clean energy package that is wanted. Meanwhile, Europe is contemplating its decisions years ago to give this leverage to Putin including the addition of the gas pipeline Nord Stream 2, which could trigger an energy realignment of the fuel sources that are needed to be more self dependent or dependent on friends like the US LNG exports.

What To Look For. Inflation will increase the cost of electricity and is likely to adjust the proformas for asset owners but with a commensurate increase in installation costs for materials and labor.  The Ukrainian farms and surrounding areas account for a third of the global wheat and barley supply which is now significantly disrupted and prices in the live markets are adjusting to this. With the input cost of oil, any transportation costs will increase. Unless you drive electric, you’ve already felt the impact at the pump of filling up your car. So will your suppliers, vendors and employees. The optimistic view is that this should trigger an energy deal in DC including tax credits driving this market forward with enhanced urgency.

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This is your SolarWakeup for March 7th, 2022

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This is your SolarWakeup for March 4th, 2022

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This is your SolarWakeup for March 3rd, 2022

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This is your SolarWakeup for March 2nd, 2022

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This is your SolarWakeup for March 1st, 2022

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This is your SolarWakeup for February 28th, 2022

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This is your SolarWakeup for February 24th, 2022

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This is your SolarWakeup for February 23rd, 2022

Moving Fast. The macros are moving faster than the market and the headline stated what we’re looking at. With the aggressions in Ukraine going in the wrong, the already inflated cost of gas in Europe is driven up by the halting of the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Inflation always hits energy hard, as seen by record consumer costs at home and at the fuel pump. The higher costs do bring about revenue streams for renewables that could make up the labor, supply chain and cost increases that the market has seen. With gas in a less reliable supply position, increased development in renewables continues to be inevitable.

The Future Of Trackers. Most solar farms are installing trackers which is a good thing for production but it causes harder design considerations especially outside of the square format of desert land plots. One of those innovations comes in the form of articulating tracker designs by companies like Nevados that allow for trackers to be installed uneven terrain more common in markets across the US.

Electrification Of Fleets. The electrification of transportation remains one of the most dynamic changes in how energy is stored, transported, and used. Covid complicated the trend by eliminating the known of where most Americans are going to be during the day, removing the known knowns of energy peaks at offices during the day and home peaks in the morning and evening. Electrification of fleets in car rental, bus depots and companies will change how suppliers approach the infrastructure that allows those fleets to keep moving. 

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Yann