This is your SolarWakeup for January 29th, 2023

Tax Equity Rules. Based on some bad ideas, the Basel 3 rules are considering tighter balance sheet requirements for banks that participate in tax equity. Doing so would obviously put tax equity in a less preferential spot even though the risk to the balance sheet has always been minimal. Advocates continue to lobby hard to make sure these draft rules are changed for the market’s sake.

Political Risk? Hundreds of billions have been invested thanks to the IRA and some are starting to be concerned if the IRA could be a political football if the party in power changes in November. Here’s my thoughts…First 2016 had similar thoughts and ultimately (with a lot of noise) solar continued to grow between 16 and 20. Both parties have been hard on solar with tariffs for well over a decade. A republican President brought the ITC to 30% originally and I can give you examples where a republican governor vetoed an anti-solar net metering bill and where a democrat governor let anti-solar net metering rules be implemented. While there is noise in the system to extend the tax policies currently in place that will sunset next few years, which will need pay-fors, many of the popular IRA policies are likely very safe. And at the end of the day, the grid needs energy and power to continue this extensive economic and manufacturing growth we’ve seen over the past few years.

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Yann


This is your SolarWakeup for January 26th, 2023

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This is your SolarWakeup for January 25th, 2023

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This is your SolarWakeup for January 24th, 2023

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This is your SolarWakeup for January 23rd, 2023

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This is your SolarWakeup for January 22nd, 2023

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This is your SolarWakeup for January 19th, 2023

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This is your SolarWakeup for January 17th, 2023

Intersolar Day 1. Anything you think I should see at Intersolar? As I tour San Diego, ERCOT enters its second day of conservation and looks to operate itself through a challenge. Meanwhile we have soaring demand for more electricity from the energy transition and economic growth. These challenges present opportunities and conferences offer a glimpse on the companies seeking to rise to the occasion.

Tax Markets Working. At the Voltility event a few months ago the talk on tax credit transfer market was quite optimistic and the data seems to confirm that. This means a solid market for capital structures that seek to build out the infrastructure we all work in. There are some new structures that are quite interesting, would be great to have a few of you pitch the best new ideas in capital formation.

Demand Met By Renewables, Storage, DERs and Grids. Today’s top note highlights the prediction for the year. The grid is stretched and operators are like a stretch Armstrong connecting rising demand (faster than predicted) and generation that is more flexible in both when it produces and how/where it delivers energy to consumers. Now the market needs to match the demand for new build of generation, storage and transmission with the requirement for new market products for those assets and DERs to ensure grid stability remains.

Europe Builds Ecosystem. In an effort to help create a manufacturing ecosystem in Europe, the government is stepping up with a $5billion package for Northvolt. Think of this as the European version of a loan guarantee.

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Yann


This is your SolarWakeup for January 16th, 2023

See You In San Diego. If you find yourself at Intersolar this week, come by the FlexGen booth and say hello.

NEM 3.0 Disaster. The situation in California is dire, layoffs are impacting most businesses and demand is off a possible 40%. Some installers are saying that the cost of the install is more doubling with the addition of storage but without additional revenue streams, the payback is nearly 10 years. In reality, CAISO needs the aggregated demand provided by residential storage to maintain long term stability but the revenue streams are not matching that need. The pleas from the industry don’t appear to have infiltrated Sacramento or the governor’s mansion thus far, which is unfortunate.

ERCOT Challenged. While you’re reading this, ERCOT will likely be at it’s closest demand reserve, far less margin than operators would like to see. The cold snap hitting so much of the Country can isolate the most fragile portions of the grid infrastructure, with a single event possibly starting a chain reaction that leaves many without power.

The Smart Home. CES happened last week and the smart home remained a big portion of the tech event. For me, the smart home seems to have focused itself on what’s available on Amazon and connects with Alexa. I consider myself willing to try new tech but the single platform ecosystem has eluded me thus far, only a few apps have found a niche home in my smart home, centered around lighting.

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Yann


This is your SolarWakeup for January 12th, 2023

Congrats. To the team at Orka for being acquired by Sunstone Credit. Lending is hard, C&I is harder, combine the two and you have a challenge ahead of you. Glad to see that come together for a team that deserves it and opportunity to keep growing this.

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Yann