This is your SolarWakeup for April 10th, 2023
The Exxon Low Carbon Chronicle. I heard from many of you about Exxon’s climate chief commentary, thank you for the thoughtful responses. What struck me most about Dan Ammann’s commentary was that it was eerily similar to what we heard from BP several years ago. It was just a few years back when the BP CEO said that if he wanted to invest $10billion into solar or wind, he wouldn’t be able to. That train has left the station as funds fight to deploy the capital, albeit with a momentary lull as we all await the IRA treasury guidance. Exxon is taking a different approach, less focused on infrastructure investment and more challenged to find ways to deploy capital that are more tied to a base resource. That means that Exxon is looking to find projects that are technology innovation, ready to deploy and scaled. The argument with that goes back to the bankability/commercialization challenge. How can a technology be developed into a billion dollar project when it hasn’t been deployed into a $10million pilot? And if it hasn’t been deployed into a pilot, who would spend the money to develop the technology even further with the hope that Exxon (or similar) spends a billion doing a master project. The closest thing I can think of is the solar concentrating solar projects. Of course this is all commentary to get into the gold mine that could be carbon capture at massive scale.
My 2 Cents For Exxon. This message is for the Exxon executives that read this newsletter. When it comes to the shift in energy consumption, don’t think of it as an oil and gas versus solar and wind. The energy transition is about how society is changing the way that we use energy while also increasing our use of energy. Your gas stations are essentially energy storage stations and for the first time your competition isn’t with the gas station across the intersection but with the distribution wires that keep your lights on and the cars charged. The energy transition is shifting molecular energy to electrified energy products, especially for consumers. The ecosystem you are operating in has just doubled in global market because oil companies now have to become electric companies as well. In an alternate scenario, think of your electric utility buying gas stations 50 years ago and getting into the fuel business. Exxon and the oil majors are challenged to figure out how to deploy their billions in a way that takes the new energy ecosystem and continues the trend of cash generation.
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 6th, 2023
March Madness Champ. Like many of you, my march madness bracket fell apart before the tournament even got started with Arizona taking an early exit. There was some South Florida excitement with Miami and FAU making the final four. Congrats to our Wakeup champion, Elaine Little, who can step forward and claim the prize. (send me an email and we can coordinate details).
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 6th, 2023
Your Thoughts? I’ve been thinking a lot about today’s top story and going back and forth in my mind about the comments made by Exxon’s climate chief. Before I consolidate my words into a paragraph for you, I’d love to hear from you on the topic.
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 5th, 2023
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 3rd, 2023
Nevados Opens Texas Manufacturing. Caught in the Linkedin news, Nevados (the single axis tracker startup I mentioned a few months ago) opened a Texas manufacturing line according to this post.
New Commercial Solar Lender. Some old friends and names are back in the game, tackling commercial solar lending. Early executives behind Mosaic’s solar lending platform are building Orka and looking to make it easier for the elusive C&I market to get access to capital. Learn more or apply here and ride the wave with ORKA
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for April 3rd, 2023
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This is your SolarWakeup for March 30th, 2023
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This is your SolarWakeup for March 29th, 2023
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This is your SolarWakeup for March 28th, 2023
TVA ‘Leading’. For the government’s test bed on utility innovation, TVA could be doing so much with solar and storage but instead is choosing to embark on a pilot mission to nowhere with small reactor technologies. Let’s kick it off with collocating storage at every TVA power plant and then work on next decade’s projects.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 27th, 2023
Living While Global Change Happens. It takes a step back for all of us to realize how much change is actually happening in real time for our energy infrastructure. I watch as my neighbors habits on commuting to work changes every day, sometimes at the last minute deciding whether to go in or not. We never think, but expect, electricity to be available in either location with no advance notice. Is it uncommon for homes to have two 50A breakers for EV charging? Does the office you go to have fast charging or other means of fueling your car? Now quick, how many EVs are available for purchase today in the US? (It’s 40 made by 12 OEMs). My point is that we’re using more energy than ever before but the way and location we use them has never been more volatile. We have zero tolerance for the lightswitch to not cause the light to turn on, the grid must be 100% reliable or consumers, regulators and politicians take it out on grid operators. (Also, don’t raise the rates) This is monumental change and has a tremendous task ahead, just read the headlines from PJM and ISO-NE over the past month. More resilience is needed in order for things to keep working the way we want, and that’s assuming that the rate of change does not accelerate further. (which it will, thanks to the IRA)
Change Means Opportunity. Goldman Sachs now sees the IRA creating over 1.2Trillion dollars in new investments and that could be assuming current circumstances. I’ll add one very likely scenario for the auto sector. Cars that lose demand, don’t get discontinued when demand goes to zero, they get discontinued when they hit a non-profitable volume. This year will be the last one of America’s muscle cars, the Chevrolet Camaro. While it used to sell 70k plus units per year, last year it did just over 20k. That means 20k would be buyers next year will go elsewhere and the likelihood that a thrill seeking, muscle car driver goes electric is very high, especially with juicy tax credits.
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Yann