This is your SolarWakeup for April 21st, 2023
NEM 3.0 Driving New Grid Reality. As consumer financing products shift back towards the lease, you see platforms gaining new strengths. Sunnova announced a loan guarantee yesterday and Sunrun is going big in Texas with their CEO hosting partners at the AT&T Stadium. How do smaller or independent companies compete in a lease dominating market? Especially a market with more technologies coming into the package, you need a platform that enables the mid to long tail to go toe to toe with the large companies. SunPower may raise $450million but 450 smaller companies are going to do more than $2million a piece. With NEM 3.0 adding the basic necessity of storage, how will those thousands of smart and grid capable homes play in the nascent VPP market, especially when aggregated outside of the large platforms? Watch for the innovation, I sure am.
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 20th, 2023
The Investment Ecosystem. It was my first solar conference that I heard a VC talk about investing in solar companies looking for a 10x return. This was 2007 and the VC was Abe Yokell, and I thought he must have misspoke because how could you turn 10million into 100million in solar (in 2007). Now it’s 2023 and the fund is Congruent Ventures which closed on fund III with $300million of fresh capital for existing investments. The top of the funnel matters for innovation, and the ability to create 10x returns exists. Look at Nextracker, which was acquired for an astounding $330million in 2015, but is now worth over 5billion.
The Details On Bulk Power Security. UL releases new standards, many companies expanding ISO to include security, and SEIA is co-hosting an important discussion on Secure Renewables. On June 7th, you can get smart on the topic in DC by joining me and many others at the conference, check out securerenewables.com to find out more. It’s not just the modules and power conversion but the importance of controls, software and monitoring that needs to meet the moment for the role the solar and storage industries want to play in the energy transition.
A CRA To Push Back On. Stay in the know on all things regarding the CRA, which could create a reversal of Biden’s two year delay of the Auxin case. Over 400 companies signed on to a letter to ask Congress to focus on the future while a House Committee moved the CRA forward.
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 19th, 2023
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 18th, 2023
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 17th, 2023
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 14th, 2023
Not Solar Related. Coming home from a work trip on Wednesday, the pilot came over the intercom to let us know we’d be landing in Palm Beach instead of Fort Lauderdale. By now some of you may have seen some images of what a few days of rain have caused to some streets but driving through town yesterday, cars were littered everywhere. It was a lot of rain, but really didn’t seem like a lot and it surely wasn’t a hurricane. All good on the personal homefront but you don’t have to look far to find someone that has to rebuild their home or totaled their car, in the blink of an eye.
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 13th, 2023
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 12th, 2023
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 11th, 2023
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This is your SolarWakeup for April 10th, 2023
The Exxon Low Carbon Chronicle. I heard from many of you about Exxon’s climate chief commentary, thank you for the thoughtful responses. What struck me most about Dan Ammann’s commentary was that it was eerily similar to what we heard from BP several years ago. It was just a few years back when the BP CEO said that if he wanted to invest $10billion into solar or wind, he wouldn’t be able to. That train has left the station as funds fight to deploy the capital, albeit with a momentary lull as we all await the IRA treasury guidance. Exxon is taking a different approach, less focused on infrastructure investment and more challenged to find ways to deploy capital that are more tied to a base resource. That means that Exxon is looking to find projects that are technology innovation, ready to deploy and scaled. The argument with that goes back to the bankability/commercialization challenge. How can a technology be developed into a billion dollar project when it hasn’t been deployed into a $10million pilot? And if it hasn’t been deployed into a pilot, who would spend the money to develop the technology even further with the hope that Exxon (or similar) spends a billion doing a master project. The closest thing I can think of is the solar concentrating solar projects. Of course this is all commentary to get into the gold mine that could be carbon capture at massive scale.
My 2 Cents For Exxon. This message is for the Exxon executives that read this newsletter. When it comes to the shift in energy consumption, don’t think of it as an oil and gas versus solar and wind. The energy transition is about how society is changing the way that we use energy while also increasing our use of energy. Your gas stations are essentially energy storage stations and for the first time your competition isn’t with the gas station across the intersection but with the distribution wires that keep your lights on and the cars charged. The energy transition is shifting molecular energy to electrified energy products, especially for consumers. The ecosystem you are operating in has just doubled in global market because oil companies now have to become electric companies as well. In an alternate scenario, think of your electric utility buying gas stations 50 years ago and getting into the fuel business. Exxon and the oil majors are challenged to figure out how to deploy their billions in a way that takes the new energy ecosystem and continues the trend of cash generation.
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