This is your SolarWakeup for March 28th, 2017
On the road again this week, covering the asset management market in San Francisco for the next few days. With so many gigawatts and hundreds of billions of dollars deployed, I wonder how all of this gets managed and maintained. So here I am, stay tuned for some content and I’d love to hear how you solve this.
The Day Is Here. Trump is doing away with the Clean Power Plan. CPP is going to start to unwind which means the EPA will go through some sort of rulemaking process. Flawed data is included in the talking point and its bad for America but we knew this was coming. The early goals of the plan had been met but that wasn’t the point. Now there are some mixed signals to the market and I have a positive outlook. I don’t see how investors that are asked to structure capital for power plants ignore the future carbon regulations that have a big likelihood of coming back. Let the private sector save us from this horrible deregulation.
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Vegas Baby. There are quite a few bills being filed in Nevada, we knew they were coming because Assemblyman Brooks told EnergyWakeup a few episodes ago. The Governor has been quiet but the next few weeks will be telling to see if the bills go through committee. If they are not held up and make it to the opposite chamber or meet for reconciliation, I would be hopeful that the backroom deal with the Governor has been made. NV Energy has made some proposals and their posture may be part of what the Governor is thinking.
Make sure you listen to the latest episode of EnergyWakeup. Wall Street has plenty of ways to invest in solar, so what does analysts say about our industry.
Pleasing the buyer. The Dallas area must be a hotbed for solar because Oncor is asking for solar fees to cover the ‘infrastructure costs.’ We all know that Texas does not yet have a vibrant distributed generation market and this has little to do with actual policy. Oncor’s parent is going through bankruptcy and Oncor is selling itself to NextEra. Maybe that is more telling about why the attacks on solar are happening.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 27th, 2017
Go Ducks! Some of my first deals in solar were in Oregon and I have some great memories of the BETC, those were the days. Now the local industry is doing great work to push new policy to revive the industry and get it back to where it was. If you listened to last week’s podcast with Michael Morosi, the wall street analyst, you will have heard some of the challenges in the solar market. Local support goes a long way with legislators as we are seeing around the Country.
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SREC Twoooooooo.1. SREC II keeps plugging along. I’m not saying that as a bad thing, the Massachusetts market has been looking for the next iteration for several years. As developers were making well over $1/watt, it’s time to move along and get some sustainability in the policy. So DOER is working on the SMART program and until then SREC II will continue on with completion deadlines of March 31st of next year at new SREC factors.
Make sure you listen to the latest episode of EnergyWakeup. Wall Street has plenty of ways to invest in solar, so what does analyst Michael Morosi see about our industry.
Solar is still hard. Shunfeng is trying something noble. Consolidating solar from manufacturing, development and assets across multiple holding companies is very difficult. Suniva has been quietly moving high quality modules and adding capacity in the US. The company is loved by DOE and has done great research out of Georgia Tech. The losses don’t appear all that bad given where module prices have gone over the past year.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 24th, 2017
The network value. Australia, which hasn’t always been the friendliest place to solar, is adding network value to the benefit of solar. It is looking to create a market dynamic around this value. These are traditional feed in tariff markets and Australia also has quite a complex network system which resembles deregulated US markets. Recently, NY PSC Chair Zibelman has accepted the job to run an Australian grid operator.
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No conflict during legislative session in NV. Everyone came together and asked regulators to extend the deadline for grandfathering net metering customers. My guess a little of each of the following played into it. Solar companies are driving through their backlog and maybe squeezing a few more in. Utilities are moving at slower speeds. Legislators are in session now and several solar bills have been filed. It is quite likely that politically, neither the Governor or the utility that will be fighting the legislation wanted upset solar companies cutting workers during the session.
Make sure you listen to the latest episode of EnergyWakeup. Wall Street has plenty of ways to invest in solar, so what does analyst Michael Morosi see about our industry.
Tom Fanning’s fantasy. A clean coal fantasy, a nuclear power plant out of whack and solar offers with premium pricing. Those are the things that get Fanning, the CEO of Southern Company, invited to solar conferences. Of course they also get a giant ratebase and make his shareholders happy. Fanning has done a great job straddling the line of, I like solar and we are doing some while letting others get a piece of the market, with loving any power plant that increases ratebase. On this trajectory, Fanning will clearly be the next chairman of SEPA once he retires and tells us how he would get into the solar business if he was starting his career again. Intellectual honesty folks!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 22nd, 2017
I’m in doubt as well. Dow spent what I could only imagine is well over $100 million to develop Powerhouse, solar shingles. It had distribution channel into the roofing industry and yet, couldn’t make it work. Probably the largest residential roofing manufacturer, GAF, shows a roof integrated solar system called Decotech on its website but also doesn’t have a shingle product. I’m not counting Elon out but gigafactory, solar factory, model 3, SolarCity, SpaceX…solar tiles can’t be too high on the priority list.
Ever wonder why Tallahassee is Florida’s capital? Because nobody goes there during legislative session! A $700 flight or 7 hour drive from South Florida but it’s much easier to reach if you have a corporate utility jet. Floridians overwhelmingly voted for property tax exemptions for solar projects and Florida has this insane process. Constitutional amendments go to the ballot, require a 60% affirmative vote before heading to the legislature for implementation. The legislature then has to pass a bill around the amendment which can get hijacked as it is happening now. FPL, their lobbyists and the legislators are adding a bunch of crap (that wasn’t in the amendment) to the bill that are bad for solar. In Tallahassee, it is all about free markets, except for their votes on monopolies, those aren’t free…
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Bring back solar. We spoke with Assemblyman Brooks on EnergyWakeup a few weeks ago about his bill to increase the RPS in Nevada. There have now been more solar bills filed around community solar and net metering. There isn’t a super majority in the Assembly and the Governor is a Republican so let’s see how the negotiations go, maybe time to check in on the Governor’s text messages again to see what NV Energy may be thinking?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 21st, 2017
East Coast v West Coast. I’m traveling on the East Coast and it seems like the entire solar industry is congregating in Rancho Bernardo. Send me your thoughts of the show, sounds like well over 1,000 of you are there.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. The Paris agreement will generate $19 TRILLION in new economic growth and over 6 MILLION jobs. All while saving the planet. And the US wants to leave this agreement?
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There will be lawyers. Sungevity employees laid off recently and some checks are bouncing apparently. Lawyers have filed a class action suit. More to come.
The Sunshine State. Didn’t even realize this docket was going on but Gulf Power in Florida, which services Eastern Alabama (aka the Panhandle), was looking to cut net metering in Florida. We have one of the best NEM policies in the Country and it’s super fair to the consumers around the State. Policy teams need to do a better job publicizing bad policy dockets while they are going on.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 20th, 2017
Back on the road. Heading up to New York for some meetings. The solar industry is being noticed by the media, apparently headlines with solar in them get read big-league.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 17th, 2017
Buy a ticket to Equinox. Vote Solar does great things and you should give them at least $100 per year. In return you get to go to Equinox, a great party, or just buy a ticket to support the group. Most importantly, I am on the host committee which means we compete to see who can drive the most traffic to ticket purchases. My proposal to you again. If you buy a ticket, email me the receipt and you will be recognized. If you buy 10 tickets or donate $1000, you get to write a paragraph in a future edition. If you want to donate more, email me and I’ll figure out a way to get you even more exposure. Ticket link here.
Paid for Regulators. What did you expect? Regulators to…regulate?
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No, No, No. Close your eyes and think of an agency you like that relates to climate change, clean air or solar. Trump’s budget likely cuts the funding for it. Be thankful that the President doesn’t pass the budget, that’s a job for Congress. Good think Congress doesn’t take it very seriously.
More layoffs. Good reporting by PV-Magazine on an unhappy topic. More corporate alignments happening in the solar space.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 16th, 2017
Buy a ticket to Equinox. Vote Solar does great things and you should give them at least $100 per year. In return you get to go to Equinox, a great party, or just buy a ticket to support the group. Most importantly, I am on the host committee which means we compete to see who can drive the most traffic to ticket purchases. My proposal to you again. If you buy a ticket, email me the receipt and you will be recognized. If you buy 10 tickets or donate $1000, you get to write a paragraph in a future edition. If you want to donate more, email me and I’ll figure out a way to get you even more exposure. Ticket link here.
New York’s REV Dream. I haven’t read the REV rules as adopted so let’s crowdsource this. What are you excited about? What do you see as the first segment of the solar market most likely to get developed?
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Carried by California. California is carrying the rest of the Country. The total installed capacity is nearly half of the Country’s total solar. NEM 2.0 is going to create a soft moment as re-education of consumers is taken on. We highlighted the softening numbers months ago, stay calm and solar on.
Irony Alert. Most people in solar were not confident that the ITC would get extended. Only a few were bad market participants and actively campaigned against the ITC. Noone did that more openly than Sunnova so imagine my surprise when I see their tax equity fund being raised. At the very least, Sunnova should say a public thank you to the people that got the ITC extended.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 15th, 2017
Buy a ticket to Equinox. Vote Solar does great things and you should give them at least $100 per year. In return you get to go to Equinox, a great party, or just buy a ticket to support the group. Most importantly, I am on the host committee which means we compete to see who can drive the most traffic to ticket purchases. My proposal to you again. If you buy a ticket, email me the receipt and you will be recognized. If you buy 10 tickets or donate $1000, you get to write a paragraph in a future edition. If you want to donate more, email me and I’ll figure out a way to get you even more exposure. Ticket link here.
The Sungevity demise. 10 years ago, someone showed me this idea of a customer typing their address into a web browser which pulled up their house on a map. Once you did that, a solar consultant would send you a layout and proposal within 24 hours. These were the beginning days of Sungevity, a solar sales platform that over the years did very well but may have gotten caught up in the craziness of owning assets. Without a proper sponsor, Sungevity went for the reverse merger. I was told the merger was in trouble as early as Intersolar North America in July so I am sure the company has been trying to find an alternative suitor throughout the process. As I said last week, I feel bad for the employees that tried to make things work and hope they find other opportunities in the solar industry. Sunrun called itself the largest standalone solar company last week, which may be true for the moment but I don’t expect that to hold true through the rest of the year.
Help support SolarWakeup. If you are looking for investors or buyers of your projects, hit reply to this email and let us help you. Our expansive network is always looking to partner with you and helps us pay the bills to keep the newsletter free to you, as it has been for the past 4 years.
Are you down with IPP? Big news out of Europe with the potential acquisition of Innogy by Engie. Innogy is the decentralized part of the RWE separation and Engie is the rebranded GDF Suez, where GDF stands for Gaz de France. Engie has been making big investments and buying into the new IPP model, including energy storage, solar and energy efficiency. The company also sold power assets in the US to Dynegy totaling almost 10GW which shows more steps to decentralization. Let’s see what’s next for the company.
Scientists can’t stand for it. The head of the EPA’s environmental justice program resigned from the agency. Mustafa Ali wrote a 3 page resignation letter to Scott Pruitt asking to focus on the science, saying “I needed to stand up” in an interview with Think Progress.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for March 14th, 2017
We’re doing this again? Why is it that anytime someone says “solar gets subsidies” the response is, we don’t need them anymore. Nobody needs subsidies in a market that gives none. This market however plays winners and losers and once you give up depreciation and ITC, are you ready to give up net metering and interconnection rights too? This is all stupid because until everyone else gives up their subsidies, I will keep fighting for solar to keep theirs. You better be sure that I am going to argue for continuation of the ITC just like I did the last time when everyone was telling me, “we don’t need subsidies anymore.”
Help support SolarWakeup. If you are looking for investors or buyers of your projects, hit reply to this email and let us help you. Our expansive network is always looking to partner with you and helps us pay the bills to keep the newsletter free to you, as it has been for the past 4 years.
A new kind of oil. In 2007, Assistant DOE Secretary, Andy Karsner, talked about the potential for solar in Morocco. Karsner had developed a pipeline of wind projects in Morocco prior to his public service and joked that he was the highest ranking US official of Moroccan descent. I share this ancestry with him so I am excited to see the progress the oil free nation has made with solar.
20MWs everywhere across America? You may be surprised to hear that large IOUs aren’t the only power companies in America. There are hundreds of co-ops across the Country serving small and large communities. There is plenty of solar going into these communities and this will be a market that will continue to grow, so hit the road and knock on some doors in rural America because everyone loves solar.
Compromise in NH. A proposed settlement in NH. Before I opine on this one as I did regarding Arizona, I want to hear your thoughts.
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Yann