This is your SolarWakeup for May 31st, 2017
Next week I will be in Los Angeles to continue the Energy Storage Road Show. This week, the focus is on large scale operating solar farms. If you are involved in megawatt scale solar in California and are located somewhere in the LA area, let me know.
Give Me More. Exelon is asking for more. Not directly, yet, but the same strategy that went into play in Illinois is back. This time, Exelon is saying that 3 Mile Island will close in 2019 after failing to clear the PJM pricing auction. What better way to determine the value of an asset than in an auction in an competitive market? If the market doesn’t value the energy and capacity from 3 Mile Island, why should ratepayers and taxpayers? I know what some will say, solar gets so much in subsidy, how can you argue that nuclear shouldn’t? I’ll take the day that we have a national grid with no energy subsidies or monopolies because I know solar with storage will be a big winner.
Bipartisan Energy Ignorance. Suniva is now lobbying for stupid protectionism that would be of great harm to the solar industry. The GOP Congressman from Georgia and Democrat from Michigan are citing the talking points about cheap Chinese solar panels. I hope that SEIA has already reached out to those Congressman and educated them about what side effects this would have on the national economy.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 30th, 2017
Step 1 In Proving Me Wrong. Ever since Tesla announced the solar roof, I’ve been skeptical. A hurdle that I thought would take time to clean was getting the class A roof assembly rating. When you permit roofing, you have to show the entire roof assembly’s fire classification that has been tested with UL. Tesla got their approval for the system designated SRxx for the PV tiles, SRNFxx for the non-PV tiles and SRFxx for the flashing parts. Main cost difference from standard tile or shingle roofs is the addition of the ¼” DensDeck made by Georgia Pacific. This is a fire barrier that is not a standard part of your typical shingle or tile roofs. I would have preferred to see a Securock since it is a monolithic board without a facer.
Is this the week? After a week abroad, it seems like the President may use the Paris Agreement to make a point to the globalists. Interestingly, Gary Cohn, said this week that no coal plant would get built because it doesn’t make much sense anymore. Even Senator Manchin scolded Gary Cohn’s comments.
The Energy Storage Road Show is going great. See you in Los Angeles next week!
Down Goes Pierce. The former Arizona Corporation Commission Chairman has been indicted for bribery amongst other things. Nothing solar related but for some reason I don’t think this will be the last we hear about shady business related to the ACC.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 26th, 2017
The US Manufacturer Money Grab. As I predicted, there is no surprise that SolarWorld is joining the 201 petition. Now that the ITC has decided to hear the case, there is a rush to be part of the subsidies that could be created for robots in US factories. If you think I am overreaching my robot comment, go to a module assembly plant in China built in the past year. It’s all robots, we are beyond the stage of people putting modules together. I see a settlement happening with some capital out of the tariff pool being distributed to keep US plants running. But how that capital actually creates sustainable jobs in the US is lost on me, I don’t see it working. One thing that will come out over the next few months are the names behind this petition that hurt the solar industry. Some you know and some you will be surprised about but never underestimate someone’s desire to make money on the backs of others.
Going to the next level. This week I visited the new O&M operations center that Swinerton has built. The subsidiary that handles O&M is SOLV and the facility is first class. With NERC level security and data processes, I had the takeaway that solar is at a level of impact to the grid that warrants more than an excel file. Asset owners have to be accessible and responsible to grid operators with their large interconnects. This seems like only the beginning but it was great to see solar assets being managed in this way. If you wonder what it looked like, think Homer Simpson meets the Jetsons in the power plant control room.
The Energy Storage Road Show is moving forward now scheduling the week of June 5th in Los Angeles!
Market Reforms Need to Happen. I’ve talked about this in the past and agree with the PSEG CEO on the needed market reforms. Deregulation went from monopolies to having three parties, generators, transmission and retailers. Next step of market participation takes the number to well over a dozen. Energy efficiency, frequency operators, etc will make ISOs think hard about how to create a consumer centric market with the right pricing signals.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 25th, 2017
I see what you did there. The President met with Pope Francis yesterday and had the customary opportunity to exchange gifts. Pope Francis is apparently not only a good person but not afraid to speak with subtlety. Pontifex gifted a copy of the ‘Laudato Si’ to the President, the encyclical on climate change. Maybe a good gift to pass around to the Catholic staff in the White House upon his return since Laudato Si lacks graphs and maps containing mostly words outlining human’s impacts on the planet we live on.
Nevada wants to make a comeback. A series of clean energy bills, mostly on storage, have passed the legislature and are heading to the Governor for signature. Yet to come are the net metering and RPS bills that should move towards the Governor relatively soon.
The Energy Storage Road Show is moving forward now scheduling the week of June 5th in Los Angeles!
States will lead. New York Times is highlighting the importance that States will play in the energy space. This is nothing new, as States have shown for many years in solar. Look at New Jersey, Massachusetts and North Carolina in addition to California on how to drive a market adoption of better and cleaner energy.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 24th, 2017
A No Surprise Decision. The Trade Commission has accepted the Suniva petition for relief. It will render a decision by September 22nd and put it on the President’s desk by mid-November. I am not surprised, this is political, not logical. Hard to handicap where this goes from here.
No Soup For You. The ‘Taxpayer First’ budget was printed yesterday which outlines a Trump budget plan. For energy pros, it means big cuts to the offices that study and advance our sector. With a Congress that hasn’t passed a budget in many years, let’s not be surprised if that trend continues.
The Energy Storage Road Show is moving forward now scheduling the week of June 5th in Los Angeles!
Solar Plus Storage. Tucson Electric is apparently entering into a solar with storage PPA at some amazing headline prices. Whether that includes capacity payments is to be reported but my guess is that 4.5cents is not all in. On the other hand, storage is dropping its costs and solar plus storage PPAs are starting to make appearances.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 23rd, 2017
Solar Held Hostage. Extortion seems like the right word right now. SQN seems to be openly saying that if someone buys the Suniva assets for $55million, the petition will go away. Hopefully the words will be used to show that Suniva does not speak for the industry when it comes to determining the eligibility of the petition. Also, a better offer for shareholders is being proposed by a competing lender, Lion Capital. This means the Judge could have Suniva use someone other than SQN for debtor in possession lending and the petition could go away. Stay tuned.
Hard Day in Oregon. SolarWorld is giving itself some options by issuing WARN notices to employees in Hillsboro. That means the factory could close within 60 days and some 800 employees could be terminated. Hardware remains hard and consolidation in the module supply segment is bound to become reality.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 22nd, 2017
On my plane en route to San Diego, will dive a bit deeper into storage this week.
Swiss Have Spoken. A vote was taken in Switzerland on whether voters want to move the grid into a renewables future or build more nuclear power plants. Unlike the US, where nuclear is the most subsidized power source, the Swiss have voted to go towards solar, wind and hydro. I would presume that similar votes in the US would go the same route, people just prefer solar over other sources. As price of storage comes down, the opposition argument of ‘when the sun goes down’ will get quieter. In the meantime, keep laughing at ludicrous arguments that corporates should bail out nuclear power plants, ratepayers have been doing that long enough.
The DOE Study. DOE studies aren’t supposed to be predetermined, they are supposed to be based on science and data. That is why the industry is screaming foul about DOE’s current lack of interest in the information needed to complete the grid study correctly. Even Republican Senator Chuck Grassley is standing up and asking for the study to be done properly.
The Energy Storage Road Show is moving forward now scheduling the week of June 5th in Los Angeles!
So Much For Chinese Dumping. We often talk about Chinese dumping of modules, which I view with a grain of salt, plus I like cheap modules because they keep us all in business and lower costs for our customers. One of the things we overlook is just how big the Chinese market has been over the past few years, China is creating its own market so that manufacturers can get product out of inventory. So instead of complaining about China’s desire to make it up with volume, let’s thank them for creating the scale.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 19th, 2017
Shortened summaries today, since it is Friday and who wants to read on a Friday. Enjoy your weekend! I’ll be in San Diego next week so stay tuned for a conversation on solar plus storage.
Now We Know. Want to know the impact of a protectionist policy that will protect no jobs? Look no further, IHS has the research.
The Curtailment Risk. Curtailment reductions on revenues for large scale projects were discussed much in recent years. Buyers would typically value the entire revenue stream but that looks like a new regulatory risk.
The Energy Storage Road Show is moving forward now scheduling the week of June 5th in Los Angeles!
Green Legos. When someone gives my kids a lego as a gift, it is hard for me to let them open and build it themselves. Now that Lego has reached its corporate goal on renewable energy, I’ll definitely take it from them.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 18th, 2017
Big Batteries Are Coming. One of the leading developers in solar is coming out with big batteries to add to their solar farms. This is no surprise as curtailment becomes an increasing topic and ancillary services add potential revenue. The storage market is getting consolidated quickly, with another acquisition this week of Greensmith by Wartsila. How will projects get executed? Both large scale and behind the meter C&I? Those are questions I am looking to answer on the road show. I have ideas and thoughts but want the market to tell me what they are seeing on the ground. This is the ultimate coordination of software and hardware. Companies have to be really good at both, which is really hard.
But I Thought. News came out yesterday that the majority shareholder of Suniva, Shunfeng, wasn’t supportive of 201 petition. Keep in mind that Shunfeng also owns whatever is left of Suntech. Now Yingli is looking precarious according to reporting. Without a doubt a major brand in module manufacturing, Yingli has gone through tough times. So with all of this talk from Suniva about dumping and cutthroat markets, it doesn’t seem to be limited to US cell manufacturers. Global manufacturers are in the same boat and only those that have the become more efficient in manufacturing can make it. Take a look at the computer chip market. How many manufacturers make up the top 80% of market share? And then compare that to the solar module market.
The Energy Storage Road Show is moving forward now scheduling the week of June 5th in Los Angeles!
A Budget to Forget. Later this summer, Congress has to either pass a budget or go for another continuing resolution to keep the Government open. Last month, President Trump said a shutdown may be required but assuming that doesn’t happen and Congress passes a budget for the first time in a really long time, Trump is looking to cut clean energy budgets dramatically.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 17th, 2017
Are Yieldcos making a comeback? CEO and data whiz at kWh Analytics has a unique view of our solar industry. He chronicles the rise, growth and fall of the yieldco environment with a preview of what is yet to come. There may be less yieldco businesses but maybe that can lead to more success with specialty sponsors. A good read and interesting point of view.
Virginia Wants to Lead. We finally find out what is really going on at Monticello! Terry McAuliffe is making a play for a carbon cap. It is rare for Governors to propose ideas with specificity without a way to get to implementation and in Virginia the Republican party was quick to denounce the move. These goals are going to get reached regardless of the policy but as the market shows that ‘regulatory overreach’ actually matches up, people won’t be afraid of setting goals.
The Energy Storage Road Show is happening, starting May 22nd in San Diego!
Big Corporate Invests in Small and Early. It doesn’t surprise me that this headline is coming out, just surprised it hasn’t happened earlier. I pitched this previously because what better way to see what problems you have in your big company than looking for innovation in startups. Forget the upside of the investment, the upside in improving your company is potentially enormous. I challenge more large companies in the solar market to do this, plus it doesn’t have to be expensive. For a few hundred thousand dollars, your company can get great exposure to the next innovative idea.
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Yann