This is your SolarWakeup for February 21st, 2018

It’s Sponsor Time. San Francisco is getting its first SolarWakeup Live! in a little less than 2 months. Like you, I’ve been at close to 100 conferences in solar, spoken on panels and sponsored various versions. Here’s the thing, I always went for the people and never the content. Why couldn’t an event allow me to do both while also letting me get business done in the city? That’s why SolarWakeup Live! was created and why sponsors get into the newsletter, website, podcast in addition to the event signage. Sponsorships should drive a return on your dollar and that’s exactly what you get here. Get in touch if your company is interested.

Houston, What Mandates. As I read this Wall Street Journal editorial, I had to ask myself why this article gets written. So I found the funny in the context, the reporter is based in Houston according to her Twitter account. So here’s a WSJ reporter in Houston blaming the growth of solar mostly on mandates. Of course, she was quick to retort that it’s not just mandates and didn’t respond to my question about subsidies for other fuel sources or the fact that monopolies are regulated requiring mandates to allow new sources to enter. Anyways, you know this but by now so should the WSJ.

No Coal For You. Coal plants are closing faster than ever before and natural gas is largely to thank for that. Monopolies around the Country saw an opportunity in the low gas costs to make a case for new rate base. It will be cheaper and cleaner they said. It will be good for consumers they said. The problem with this is that the benefit stays with power companies while the fuel risk stays with consumers. I’ve said it before but the greatest, costliest subsidy that monopolies get is the free fuel cost hedge. Imagine if the utility had to either stand behind the fuel curve for the life of the plant at shareholder expense or secure a hedge from a 3rd party. Neither of those things would happen and therefore natural gas plants are not financially competitive in the marketplace.

NY Green Bank. Some of you asked about the benefits of a green bank. I asked Alfred Griffin exactly that and the answer is seemingly obvious when you hear it. Sometimes, in a new market that is not well transacted, other sources of capital with a mission need to step up and provide the patience needed for private capital. Check out the interview here

Reserve Your Seat. April 10th in San Francisco. We’ll talk about the future of capital in solar and how California policy can shape the future of our market. 25% of the seats are already gone, get yours. 

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 20th, 2018

San Francisco Live! Time to head to the West Coast, SolarWakeup Live! is coming to San Francisco on April 10th. Like the events before this, it will be an afternoon with great content and more networking. After each event, I’ve been getting great feedback on how to improve the events but the core remains with a focus on the timely, valuable content. Reserve your seat quickly, the venue will be smaller than New York and there are way more readers in San Francisco than in New York. Link here.

New Solar Pod. Alfred Griffin is the President of the New York Green Bank and he joined me in New York City to talk about the work the NY Green Bank is doing. Several years ago the Green Bank was a vision of a future where a billion dollars of NY tax dollars could push private capital into a growing solar market. Now the bank has over $500 million in active pipeline and is on the verge of paying for itself. Alfred also tells us about the future of how the NYGB can help other States follow in their paths. Let me know what you think of the interview and leave a rating on iTunes.

Another Trump Tax? This time it’s steel and aluminum. At the same time as the 201 case was started, Trump initiated a trade rule that hasn’t been used since 1981. This is insane disruption in a commodity that touches every sector of the economy including solar. Racking used to cost 50 cents per watt and today we are WELL below that. Increasing the raw commodity costs of the intake product means that the segment of solar that actually has US manufacturing is going to suffer. Racking and mounts are the number 1, 2 and 3 reasons why a customer gets upset with their solar installation. Is solar involved in this trade case too because this definitely isn’t in the budget…

Let’s Deal. It’s time for all this trade noise to get dealt away. The dealmaker has to stop creating chaos and make a deal. This can’t be something that anyone in either party thinks is going to create positive growth for the US economy. The republican party is the party of free trade and while Trump ran on no trade deals, I don’t think he ran on protectionism. Congress needs to get involved and stop the chaos.

Hoarding Modules. It’s no secret that the supply chain moved modules ahead of the tariff decision. That being said, not many people moved modules without a project to put them on. If they did, this was in defense for a decision that was far worse than the 30%. Like I said in New York, if the solar industry was given a choice the day after the 201 tariff was filed to accept 30% and stop the process, the solar industry would have accepted because the uncertainty is the major killer. Moving modules ahead of the decision was the same thing, a hedge to save projects.

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Have a great day!
Yann

E037: Alfred Griffin – President NY Green Bank at SolarWakeup Live! New York

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By Yann Brandt What: President of NY Green Bank, Alfred Griffin, Talks Solar Capital and Green Bank Success 
Summary: During an interview at SolarWakeup Live! New York, Alfred Griffin, the President of the New York Green Bank, gave an overview of the type of work that the Green Bank has been undertaking. The active pipeline is in excess of $500 million and is meant to create a level of comfort with the types of transactions for private capital. Griffin goes into detail on how the bank operates and how solar developers, investors and market participants can take advantage of NY … Read More →

This is your SolarWakeup for February 16th, 2018

Do You Vote Solar? 5 weeks from now, the solar industry will come together in celebration of Vote Solar at Equinox 2018. Today is the day to hit reply to this email and tell me that you want to sponsor Equinox. You don’t pay membership fees to Vote Solar because there are no members, no paid for boards or other fundraisers. Just Equinox and contributors. On the other hand Vote Solar has been on the ground and in the regulatory hearings representing your best interests, preserving net metering, PURPA and more around the Country. Vote Solar is opposing massive rate base projects to improve solar markets in places like Michigan. I need you to act and be a part of Equinox, if you can’t sponsor please buy tickets and join the industry. You know as much as I that Vote Solar has created a positive impact for your business this year. Hit reply now!

Seed Fund Applications. Danny Kennedy is back for more of your businesses to apply to CalCEF’s CalSEED grant program. If you are working on a great idea, you should apply. There is money and more importantly there is mentorship and marketing for your business. Link is below to apply, deadline is February 28th.

$84million Profit. I generally skip the earnings season but SolarEdge full year announcement caught my eye. This is a solar hardware company that raised a bit of a hundred million in venture money then to the IPO. Today they are worth $2billion. In 2017, revenues were in excess of $600million and profits over $84million. Well done to a solar success story!

Starting Line. You’ll see plenty of coverage on the FERC approved NOPR on energy storage. It still requires implementation at the local level but it essentially brings storage to the grid operation. There are shortcomings in the order but this is a process with a good start.

Q&A. This weekend, don’t miss the Q&A from New York where the audience was asking the questions. This will happen again at SolarWakeup Live! San Francisco expected to happen the second week of April. More details to come soon! Enjoy your weekend, no edition on Monday, I’ll be back on Tuesday with your solar news.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 15th, 2018

PACE. Many readers that have followed my career know that solving C&I solar has been a longtime problem I have wanted to fix. We, collectively as an industry, know that credit is the central problem that isn’t solved like the FICO score solves the problem in residential. That is why I am excited to be doing consulting work as an Advisor to CleanFund, the market leader of commercial PACE. Over the next few months, I’ll be back speaking to many of you about how we can all work together and fix this problem. C&I energy users represent almost 50% of the total energy consumption but when you look at the unrated commercial solar market, it’s basically zero. I see PACE doing for C&I solar what the loan did for residential. PACE isn’t what it was a few years ago, rates are competitive and the process is much more refined. More to come on this.

New Podcast. This is a reverse interview with the audience at SolarWakeup Live asking the questions. Sound from the questioners is a bit low but I hope you enjoy to hear some of the thoughts. I’ll be doing this at future events as well to make sure the folks in the room get some feedback on the current issues being debated.

Wave Elections. I talk about politicizing the issue of solar at every chance I get. Tom Steyer is apparently taking advantage of the anticipated wave election in 2018 to put renewable energy as an issue on the ballot in several States. The legislative strategy is sound, partnering with some solar trade groups to message it appropriately would be a good additional improvement also. Look at this space.

State Politics. Interesting that the VA house in a monopoly reform bill which originally passed 55-41 was put up for a revote and was essentially unanimous. I’d be curious to understand the politics of that move except to cover the few that went with the democrats on the initial vote. Let’s see how this works in other States.

Corporate PPAs. Always interesting to get more detail on how the corporate PPAs are actually structured. Mostly they are some version of contract for differences (CFDs) but this explains in greater detail on how to do this and what the financial value proposition is.

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Have a great day!
Yann

E036: Reverse Q&A With Yann Brandt, Live From SolarWakeup Live! New York

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What: Reverse Q&A With Yann Brandt, Live From SolarWakeup Live! New York 
Summary: By popular demand, the audience of SolarWakeup Live! asked me the questions during this panel. Topics included the impact of 201, what is next for solar, the future of solar advocacy and how to increase the feedback loop with SolarWakeup readers. SolarWakeup View: Listen to the podcast to hear the SolarWakeup View.

This is your SolarWakeup for February 14th, 2018

Battery Thoughts. If you were in solar in 2007, email me how much you paid for your first module and what you paid for your last module. Then think about the following, nobody else was using silicon wafers and the price dropped an enormous amount. Then think about batteries for energy storage. At best, I see energy taking 10% of the global market share of the lithium ion production. Maybe you stretch the assumptions and get to 25% but transportation will take the vast majority of it. That’s the game folks, everything is going to electrify because storage costs will become nothing. Then add the speed it brings to grid operations, elimination of intermittency in generation and reduction in grid upgrades.

Innovation. I spent the last two days at the SunShot summit here in DC. First, I am glad to see that people are targeting real and imminent problems in our space in hardware, software and business model innovation. Second, they need better access to capital and ability to network within the space. Third, these startups do a terrible job in marketing. I am the easiest media platform in the industry to reach out to, thousands of you can talk to me with the click of a reply button and it almost never happens. Our industry is a rising tide that helps everyone. Some of us will sink but I am sure of the fact that if someone does well, they reinvest into the space. SolarWakeup Ventures???

Three Pronged Solar Value. At some point we will draw the picture but the solar industry is surrounded by three major trillion dollar industries. Transportation OEMs, oil & gas majors and power IPPs are all making major moves because of the electrification of transportation.

Yieldcos. Pension funds are yieldcos for the pensioners looking for their monthly retirement check. They just happen to be private and less volatile. That’s where solar assets belong because the upside is limited for a long term solar asset owner but the downside is managed properly. Yieldcos may be gone from public markets, but they are not gone, far from it.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 13th, 2018

Rate Of Change. “The rate of change is faster than the rate of change has been changing” coming from the Director of the Solar Energy Technology Office, aka SunShot. The event is private so while it’s not off the record, I will leave the rest of the event off this platform. I wanted to pass along this message because after 11 years in solar, it’s great to hear that while things feel stagnant, the rate of change is not.

Trump Budget. Budget documents are largely messaging platforms to show the priorities of an administration. There is little doubt in the process that national labs and renewable energy programs will have lower than previous budgets. While slowing programs is short sighted, I worry about the national labs because the disruption of research is hard to restart. With the Defense budget increasing and DOD’s understand of the threat posed by climate change, wouldn’t it be wise for DOD to fund the research labs?

Watch Capacity. Must like the capacity contracts in California markets, capacity contracts are the basis that allow many power plants to try and get profitable. Look at capacity contracts as the debt service coverage and dispatched energy as the profit determination. The UK held a capacity auction and 4 out of the 6 remaining coal plants failed to clear the price for the capacity auction. BNEF now sees those plants retiring within a few years.

Mainstreaming EVs. CNBC is notorious for covering the auto sector, with a full-time reporter covering the space. But as cars become electric, they are now becoming reporters of the energy market as they impact consumerism across the Country. More EVs on TV is good for solar, our markets will connect more and more.

Watch China. We are obviously not going to see drastic increases of EV subsidies in America but we need to find more ways to accelerate the adoption of electrified transportation. In comparison, China may see more than 1 million EVs sold in 2018. I look forward to seeing fleets and mass transit exchange entirely to electric drives.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 12th, 2018

SunShot. Greetings from DC, where I am going to be for the next few days to peer review the SunShot Summit. I’ve long been a big fan of the work that the SunShot team has enabled through their funding while pushing for results. I know many startups in solar that were able to move forward in a market lacking the seed stage capital needed to get a company off the ground.

Here We Go Again. The NOPR didn’t go where lobbyists had desired when they drafted the subsidy for coal plants for Rick Perry. Now they are pushing the issue again without the onerous regulatory and oversight process. The coal industry is looking for Perry to use emergency powers to prop up the dirty and unprofitable power plants.

Slow Your Ratebase. I’m going to keep the Vote Solar fanboy editorials going until you’ve all given some of your advocacy budget to the company. First in Michigan and now in North Carolina, Vote Solar is getting involved in big rate base initiatives which is really smart. Typically, the solar industry goes into a process asking for something. Now, the advocacy team is going in when the utility wants a big handout and putting itself in the way of a big rate base increase. Most requests of this magnitude end up in a settlement, which is a great place for the solar industry to be to ask for things.

Startup Arctic. Solving local issues with local startups makes a lot of sense. Launch Alaska is doing exactly that, highlighting Alaska’s unique energy challenges and already unique infrastructure, 12% of the grid is on microgrids, the non-profit program is looking to help make the system more efficient. High electricity costs makes the startup ideas become immediately feasible since the financial value of each kWh is much higher.

Save The Snow. You probably watched some of the Winter Olympics this weekend, expertly judging the jumps and knocking the quad that failed into a triple axle. I’m with you, the landing could have been better. When you speak to the athletes that spend time on the mountains, they tell you about their worries about the snow in the future.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 9th, 2018

I am headed back to Miami right now after a great week in SF. More on the work that we’re doing on Monday. Always exciting to dig into new advisory work to help great companies grow in the solar industry. More info on the next SolarWakeup Live! coming soon. Have a great weekend!

CalSEIA -> CalSSA. The state solar trade group that leads the Country’s biggest solar State is moving forward in a big way. CalSEIA is renaming itself CalSSA, the California Solar and Storage Association. I was surprised by the obviousness of the move and quickly wondered why nobody else had done that, especially SEIA. Energy storage is clearly the improvement of solar generation that is coming and letting other groups take that advocacy away from solar generation is ridiculous. Board members tell me that while discussion is centered around how this relates to policy, a rebranding discussion has not come up in any meaningful way. Question is why not…

Contributor Input. You will see a new feature in SolarWakeup today, a contributor piece from a solar market leader. If you have a relevant message that informs or advances the solar industry, you can submit your piece to SolarWakeup going forward.

Your State Advocacy. When you think of the trade group that advances State policies that drive solar markets like net metering or PURPA rules, who do you think of? The answer obviously is Vote Solar which focuses on creating markets across the Country for solar companies to participate in. Not driven by membership fees, Vote Solar relies on fundraisers and foundation dollars. Your budget should include a (very large) check to Vote Solar to keep your market open. Look out for the Equinox event that is happening in March.

Investing $500million. If you were in charge of investing BP’s $500million into renewable energy, how would you divide the investment?

Add More Lawsuits. Canadian manufacturers are not happy with Trump refusing to keep NAFTA rules in place to bring modules from Canada into the US. So they files suit!

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Have a great day!
Yann