This is your SolarWakeup for October 9th, 2017

SolarWakeup Live! Boston tickets are still available and early bird pricing of only $50 per ticket is ending soon. Get yours now and spread the word please.
Doing Good or Doing Well in Puerto Rico? Elon and Governor of Puerto Rico spoke after a Twitter conversation about rebuilding the grid in PR. The technical challenge in PR is imminently solvable. We should be having this conversation but the focus should be on doing good things to rebuild Puerto Rico, not get some free press. Outside of a few pilot projects and FEMA dollars, there is likely little work for the solar industry directly because there aren’t any paying customers.
Debt Is The Real Problem. Solving the technical problems will stay on the drawing board short of solving the PREPA credit issue. PREPA has no access to capital and its primary customer, the Puerto Rican government, doesn’t have much credit either. With bonds trading at under 40 cents on the dollar, the debt will have to be fixed in order to bring new capital to the island. Solar has been sitting on PPAs for years with almost no takers, most PPAs well above 10 cents per kWh too.
Run An Auction. My first obvious choice was for NextEra to take over PREPA. At further thought, it should be a competition and given the political risk and language barrier, it probably wouldn’t be NEE. On the other hand, some other operator should still follow the game plan, someone with access to debt. Engie makes sense amongst some others, so let’s run an auction to see who’s interested. Package the process with debt write downs and loan guarantees to attract the right people.
Cities and Corporates Want Solar. Franchise agreements between municipalities and IOUs come up for renewable every 10 years normally.  The same way that Facebook wants solar for its data centers, Cities want options for their buildings and the businesses in their jurisdiction. When the IOUs don’t give customers what they want, they will get it themselves. Also cities are incentivized to enter into long term PPAs at low costs, no ratebase, no incentive to grow demand, the interests of provider and consumer are aligned. Watch this space…
SEIA Takes Argument To The People. The point was made at the ITC hearing by O’Sullivan of NextEra. Any remedy imposed on the solar industry will be paid by the people across America. Consumers will pay more and get the same exact product. They’ll pay more on energy contracts, they’ll pay more when people lose their jobs and aren’t paying taxes and they’ll pay more by making less with greater competition in the job market. SEIA is rightfully taking the argument to the American people.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 6th, 2017

Have a great weekend!
Facebook Cleans Dominion. Data centers are big money for States and utilities love the long term capacity need. Facebook went to Virginia to invest a billion and in return got Dominion to provide a clean energy tariff. Works well for Dominion because they’ve been a leading buyer in VA and NC recently.
Solar For Choice and Freedom. Heritage, R Street and the National Retail Federation are saying no to 201 petition. These groups swing big in DC. I didn’t see this reported earlier but 55 members of the House of Representatives wrote a letter to the ITC asking for the board to protect the solar industry.
The California AG Market. They saved solar during the tax credit fight and now in the ITC for 201. The California Poultry, Fresh Fruit and Citrus Associations have filed a letter with the commission. Saving money for farming operations is the leading driver which means higher module prices are bad for America’s farming community.
No More Press Releases On PR, Please. A lot of people want to help in Puerto Rico. A lot of companies are also planning on helping. If you are doing either, great. I am supportive of our sector helping in PR. Keep the press releases to yourselves please. Instead do the work, then take videos and pictures and publish those. Puerto Rico isn’t your backdrop for telling the sector that you know how to build solar and storage.
The Exclusion Battle On 201. A commissioner of the trade commission brought it up and First Solar was exempt from the start. Individual companies are coming up and asking for the commission to be excluded. Once a full list is available, I will send that along.
Interview With Abby Hopper. Two interviews, 10 minutes each, for you to listen to. Both were recorded at the ITC hearing, before and after the solar industry’s session. This gives you some color on the atmosphere in the hearing room.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 5th, 2017

Big Solar. Especially In China. China gets blamed for cheap solar panels, especially in the 201 petition. In 2016, their market was more than 2x the US, over 30GW. Coal is drastically declining there too. IEA, which isn’t known for great data is lifting its solar outlook in response to real data.
The Truth About Peaking Power. Don’t take anyone’s word for it. Peaking power plants are losing their value because the capacity contracts and repower approvals aren’t getting done. Solar with storage is too cost effective so I ask again. What are you doing to make your solar project dispatchable with dc-coupled storage? I ask selfishly because that is my focus today in helping develop these projects.
Storage In Massachusetts. Engie is building a storage project, interesting on a few counts. We’re coming down from the 4 hour system into a 2 hour system which lowers costs and keeps the flexibility aspects there. It’s still small though, 3MW doesn’t move the needle and we need to go much bigger. See above, dispatching solar projects is the real need in the market.
ISOs Respond to Perry. PJM doesn’t like it. ISOs say that this would harm their free market pricing signals. FERC is independent of DOE so I look forward to hearing the testimony.
Your Answers On My Question. Thanks for the feedback on my question about charging for the newsletter. Dozens of you wrote that I should get sponsors instead, which I tend to agree with but solar doesn’t do digital advertising, we prefer lanyards. That is why I started SolarWakeup Live! Mini-conferences. Boston and DC in 2017, New York in January and San Diego in February. Many said you wanted to help grow this platform we all share, sponsor one or more conferences and our conversations will flourish.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 4th, 2017

The Tone Of The ITC Hearing. It was boring through the prepared testimony but hours of questions from the commissioners was telling. Commissioners were much more demanding of answers to Suniva/SolarWorld starting with their request to understand how a 201 remedy would help them survive. Crickets from the petitioners on that point.
Craziest Thing Said By Suniva/SolarWorld. The minimum price and tariffs would not affect the market because the RPS policies would require utilities to buy solar at whatever price it costs and the tax credit adjusts to higher pricing. It was also said that there was no elasticity in the utility scale market meaning that cost of install was detached from market size.
Best Point(s) By Anti 201 Witnesses. 1. There is no obvious and stated circumstance where Suniva and SolarWorld end up in a better position 4 years from now with a requested 201 remedy. (SEIA lawyer Matthew Nicely) 2. Solar industry may have grown through solar tariffs 1 and 2 but silicon wasn’t as fortunate, the US leadership was lost when China retaliated to the tariffs. 3. Don’t forget the consumers and the higher price of energy they would have to pay if the proposed remedy is recommended.
Advice To Solar Industry From SEIA President. I spoke with Abby Hopper of SEIA and asked what solar companies should be doing. Patience is the answer because there is nothing happening today, tomorrow or the next few weeks. SEIA is going to the White House today and Trump goes to China in November. Expect more deal talks to heat up over next weeks and months.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 3rd, 2017

The ITC Remedy Hearing. As I prepare for the remedy hearing that starts in a few hours, I am looking at the witness list that consists of solar professionals, lawyers and diplomats. This is a hearing to discuss the remedy that is requested by the petitioners and the answer by the trade association. SEIA rightfully pointed out that Suniva’s request for module tariffs is above the allowed 50% tariff under the 201 petition. SolarWorld is requesting an import quota on cell and modules and is not expected to support a minimum price. SEIA also proposed some options which include doing something with the tariff deposits from the first two tariff cases and an import license that could create monies for domestic manufacturing.
What Isn’t Expected To Happen. Anything off script. Most people in the room don’t expect to hear anything that they don’t plan on hearing. All sides will say what they planned for and nobody is expecting any surprises. No deal is expected to be announced but don’t be surprised if you start hearing talk about a deal being discussed. Too many what if scenarios to really get into now and there isn’t a lot of precedent when it comes to the 201 petition.
What Happens Next? Depending on how the feedback, if any, from the commissioners affects the mood in the room, expect the parties to keep talking. It doesn’t seem like there is a path where this doesn’t end up on the President’s desk so there will remain a wild card until the end. I also remain skeptical that without a corporate solution for Suniva and perhaps SolarWorld, that a deal can be had. I will be looking for sidebars and one on one conversations tomorrow at the hearing. The remedy vote will be on October 31^st, same day as SolarWakeup Live! Boston and a topic that is expected to be discussed in detail.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 2nd, 2017

Yann Goes To Washington. I don’t expect new news to come out of the remedy hearing but there was too much nuance involved in the process. So I am on my way to Washington this morning and will be in the ITC hearing room tomorrow as Suniva and SolarWorld make their arguments. I want to see the body language, the tone and facial expressions in the room. I am not interested in the news, other reporters will cover that. I am trying to figure out where this is going to end up and if any of solar’s messaging is getting to the commissioners. No dinner plans for tonight so I may have to hit up my favorite Indian restaurant in DC, I must celebrate globalism after all.
SolarWakeu Live! Boston. On October 31^st, we will take on Boston with SWu Live. Our first speaker that we are announcing is Daniel Hullah, Managing Director of GE Ventures. Daniel has over a decade in cleantech VC with GE, National Grid and Rockport. This is a conversation I am really interested in. When GE moved into Boston, Jeff Immelt highlighted the need for innovation and startups to shape GE, and corporate development in cleantech is quite active. Get your tickets now, 3 more great speakers to be announced soon.
So Much Going on, Read It all. New York Times covers renewable energy jobs going to coal country. The Florida PSC continues to be a retirement home for legislators, this time with a guy that has shown his roots long ago. More loan guarantee for Vogtle, it still won’t get built. DOE wants subsidies for coal and nuclear plants (totally crazy, I know). Puerto Rico still needs energy and water and food and help. If you can help visit unidosporpuertorico.com and make a donation. If you have materials that you want and can donate, please email me.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for September 29th, 2017

I may be attending the remedy hearing to cover it for you all and get some expert analysis post hearing. If that happens, I will let you know. Some great events coming up to see me in person. On 10/31 we are in Boston for SolarWakeup Live! On 11/7, there will be a live streaming of EnergyWakeup at MDV-SEIA’s Solar Focus Conference in DC. And 12/6 SolarWakeup Live! Will be in DC. Make sure to get your tickets for all events and contact me if you want to sponsor any of those.
Remedy Gamesmanship Begins. We’ve been expecting the remedy testimony to come out in advance of the hearing and had heard rumors that Suniva and SolarWorld would not be in full agreement about the minimum price. Suniva has adjusted its minimum price a bit and asks for Canada to not be allowed to be a free trade partner. They still want the minimum price to be $0.74 per watt and have a tariff on imported cells. SolarWorld will be asking for an import quota which Suniva wants the tariff to apply to. Remind yourself that this is coming from two companies that will never be the same, regardless of remedy imposed because their bankability is either questionable or non-existent at this point.
Putting 51^st State In Action. I’ve had a lot of ‘if only’ conversations this week regarding the disaster in Puerto Rico. Bringing solar generators, multiple power input microgrids, energy storage etc. It’s all doable but who is the customer? Where should it go? In a discussion on my linkedin page, it was brought up that this is one of the largest power outages outside of wartime in a long time. Puerto Rico is literally the 51^st State, which matches the SEPA program to figure out what the utility of the future looks like. Seems like an opportune time to take theory and apply to real life. I’d also think that since NextEra couldn’t buy HECO, they should think about buying PREPA.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for September 28th, 2017

Listen to the latest podcast and put a review on iTunes please. Get your tickets to SolarWakeup Live! Boston here.
Tax Reform Is Here.The important parts of tax reform have been highlighted and the way it would affect solar are as follows. Corporate rate is proposed to drop to 20% and a repeal of the estate tax and AMT. The corporate drop would affect the supply of tax equity because less would be owed and reduce the value of the depreciation, both of which will cause a negative pressure on tax equity value if it passes as proposed (it will not). Some senators and Secretaries have proposed making the reform retroactive to 2017, which would cause larger issues and drive contractual clauses that are ignored right now. Hoping to cover ‘change in law’ provisions with future guests on the podcast soon.
SolarWorld May Have Lost A Customer. Roofing contractor PetersenDean has signed a supply agreement with San Antonio’s Mission Solar. This is noteworthy because on my many trips to California, the radio waves are plastered with ads from PD about made in America modules which used to be purchased from SW. Now it appears that Mission Solar is getting that business, I don’t know if that is related to bankability or the 201 petition but noteworthy. I do want to ask something of the solar industry. SolarWorld is screwing the industry and we should take our business elsewhere. HOWEVER, the employees are stuck in a shitty position. You can be honest with them about your feelings but at the same time, you should offer your help to them in terms of finding another opportunity if they so desire. It’s not their fault and they probably had no ability to impact this. Just saying that we shouldn’t necessarily put the two in the same basket.
The RPS, Forgotten But Not Lost. They used to seem ideological and far fetched, especially in the mid 2000’s. Today, RPS continue to drive state and utility purchasing into renewables without cost to ratepayers. We’ve spent the year debating the 100% RPS across the leading States but many red and purple States have long forgotten the RPS. I can’t think of the last RPS bill filed in Florida since Representative Kreegel killed it in 2009 because 20% RPS by 2020 with a 2% cost cap was ‘impossible’. I laugh out loud now on how wrong we were but maybe having a doctor as the head of the energy committee was the problem to start with.

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Yann

Mike DellaGala: Getting to NTP – Using Development Capital To Boost Projects To Completion

Mike DellaGala has been in solar for a long time and we’ve known each other about that long. I wanted to have Mike on the podcast to talk about the change in his business model. For many years, Mike was a sponsor in the market, his goal was to buy projects with as little risk as possible at the highest returns he could find. Today, he has shifted DGEP Management to get into projects as early as possible and provide the capital needed to get to NTP. With developers using their networks and capabilities to dream up a project, the … Read More →

This is your SolarWakeup for September 27th, 2017

Inside Development Capital, A Podcast. Risk is the biggest problem for developers. Risk costs money and slows things down when it comes to building a project. That’s why developers tend to take a project beyond maximum value, like an option declining in value after a peak. The solar industry has a lot of different sources of capital available today, much more than years ago, and we will be going through some of them over the next few months on the podcast. Listen to this episode as we talk about a different type of development capital.
More Georgia Solar. Another 1,200MW of solar in Georgia. Recently we’ve seen solar get done in Mississippi and Oklahoma as well. Sitting in Florida, I wonder when the time of solar in our State will happen.

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Yann