This is your SolarWakeup for October 23rd, 2017

Why Did I Talk To SunPower’s CEO. In the latest podcast, I spoke with Tom Werner, SunPower’s CEO. I was curious about SunPower’s role in the 201 case. If you read the filings, they lead the SEIA filing and at the same time file their own responses. SunPower has been standing not only in their corner, but all of solar’s corner. They’ve been a part of policy fights, public and private, that help amongst other things their dealers compete in a bigger market.

Stion Owes $75mm. The State of Mississippi is contemplating a lawsuit against Stion to recoup its loan. A few years ago, the State loaned Stion $75mm to build a factory. This supplemented $225mm in venture capital investments that Stion received. Stion told reporters that they were hoping a buyer would keep the factory running - don’t hold your breath because nothing is worse for a solar manufacturer than a lack of bankability.

Subsidy Irony. Stion, a largely unkown company, made its way on many radar screens when I pointed out their support of the Suniva/SolarWorld 201 petition. You have to enjoy the irony - arguing for crystalling technology to be punished so they could have an unlevel playing field by saying that other Countries were giving too much money to manufacturers. Subisidies for jobs are part of the global economy. Stion was also given tax deductions, infrastructure and workforce training that all US companies enjoy that other Countries do not.

More On Hannity. Axios has published more information about Solar Powers America, which I had kept to myself because the message was better without the background. If you like palace intrigue, the article is here. This makes a good point that SolarWakeup is the best place to get news out because I support our industry I make my living in it. If you want to stay anonymous, there is a tips link on the front page of solarwakeup.com, use it often or call me to let me know about things you are working on.

Purpose Of 501(c)4. SPA is a 501(c)4 which means it’s a non-profit but has a mission that it supports. You may also know them as Super PACs because donor(s) can stay private and nobody will ever know who they are. Have a billionaire friend that wants to flood facebook with solar supporting news? Start a 501(c)4 and have yourself a field day. Not all advocacy groups are (c)4, some incorporate as a company and end the year without profit.

Presented By EnterSolar. EnterSolar is a leading provider of solar photovoltaic solutions to the commercial marketplace that is ranked the #1 solar developer in New York State and in the top 10 nationally.  We are currently hiring at our growing company.

Join Us in Boston 10/31. Tickets for SolarWakeup Live! Boston are available here, just $75 for four in-depth interviews about net metering, SMART, venture capital and startups.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 20th, 2017

Interviewing SunPower CEO. Yesterday I interviewed Tom Werner, SunPower’s CEO, to talk about the 201 petition and how difficult it is to drive cost out of technology. I ask him about SunPower’s request to be excluded from the tariff. Tom questions how SunPower, which sells a premium product, could possible cause harm to modules that sell at a discount to SunPower. Listen to the full interview here.

Excluded But On Offensive. SunPower and First Solar are partners in 8point3 and compete head to head on utility projects. But when it comes to the 201 case, First Solar is excluded through “arcane” regulations and I asked Tom how he felt about that. I would have to ask First Solar, Tom said, about why First Solar would go on the offensive while being excluded.

Solar Powers America. The Hannity audio was actually a radio ad that has been running in South Carolina for a few weeks including on Hannity’s radio show. What isn’t on the youtube clip is the disclaimer that the ad was paid for by Solar Powers America, a 501(c)4 registered in Florida. I tracked down a few people behind the group which is focused on the message and not the messenger, which I will respect. The group is spending big money on pushing the ad out and we could see more with this strategy.

A Southern Strategy. Solar Powers America was formed by Solar industry executives across the Southeast to educate Southeastern states on the jobs and low cost electricity solar energy can deliver to small towns and rural communities.  The falling cost of solar equipment has been the key driver of both affordable electricity and manufacturing employment in factories producing the steel foundation of solar farms throughout the country. Looking at it from a political perspective, Southern states have different politics and needed a different approach. The group has been focusing on outreach grassroots advocacy by highlighting the jobs created by solar. I well done effort in my opinion.

201 Pivot. The original intent of SPA was not the 201 case, it hadn’t been filed yet. The 201 petition unfairly impacts Southern states where tariffs can kill an entire market. Just look at South Carolina which is tight as it is, but a tariff would eliminate it altogether. With a focus on manufacturing jobs already in place, the pivot happened and Solar Powers America used its platform to educate America about jobs that could be lost if offshore hedge funds have their way.

Bezos Badass. Christening a wind farm while standing on top of it? Badass.

Boston Ticket Release. We just opened some more seats for SolarWakeup Live! Boston. This isn’t your typical solar conference, just 4 hours long and no panels. I am personally interviewing Senator Boncore about net metering legislation, Michael Judge from MA DOER about SMART and private sector players Daniel Hullah and Jon Abe. Tickets will not be available at the door but you can get them here.

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Yann

SunPower CEO, Tom Werner, On Asking For 201 Exclusion and Leading The Fight Since 2003

Tom Werner joined SunPower as employee number 35 and became the CEO in 2003. Since going public in 2005, Tom has led the company through the solar industry to where it is today. With 1,100 employees in the US and operations around the world. With the 201 petition at the top of mind, I ask Tom about the exclusion SunPower is asking the ITC for and why he thinks First Solar asked for tariffs to be implemented when they were aleady exempt. It’s difficult to get public company CEOs to open up but I saw a long term vision come … Read More →

This is your SolarWakeup for October 19th, 2017

This Is “Reality” The Hannity audio is actually a few weeks old according to my reporting, running on the radio in South Carolina in advance of Trump’s trip to the State. I saw your coverage and comments about the Sean Hannity audio and while I understand your frustration with the Obama language and Hannity talking points, I’d like you to stop whining. Until Rachel Maddow or Chris Hayes get their sit down with Trump, Hannity has the ear of the President. In 78 seconds he talks about manufacturing jobs in America being threatened by an offshore hedge fund, I’ll take it. The rest, that’s part of the reality show we live in.

Audience Of One. The moment the ITC voted to find serious injury, the jobs in the solar industry were in one person’s hands – and that’s Trump. He will have advisors in the White House that are nationalists and free market capitalists and they’ll argue about the virtue of both. What solar needs him to hear is that people are making stuff in the US for the solar industry and tariffs will impact jobs performed by robots and not people. Any tariff would lose American jobs and drive more robots working in the dark. An audience of one, an audience that watches Hannity, follows him on Twitter and retweets him. Hannity has the audience – you and I do not.

Protectionism Is Hated. When it comes to protectionism, the republican establishment and corporate interests cant align more on their hatred for these things. That’s why you see Heritage, Cato, R Street, ALEC and others come together with the solar industry to fight back. I’m thankful because they are good at public affairs and have the budget to attack this with great influence.

No More SUNE. A shareholder vote at TERP has approved the change to Brookfield as the sponsor of the yieldco, which is now owned 51% by Brookfield. Next up with Terraform Global which would quickly turn Brookfield in one of the largest solar asset owners in the world.

FERC Comments. Given all that is going on, not much focus has been given to the DOE NOPR that asks FERC to give subsidies to coal and nuclear plants. This could create destructive impacts on the power markets. The FERC commissioners appear sympathetic to the intent but feel changes would need to occur in order to move something forward. I’d expect many interested parties to continue alignment to educate the commission on pushing this back significantly.

Solar Focus Conference. Want to hear more about power markets and retail energy? I’ll be interviewing CleanChoice CEO Tom Matzzie at MDV-SEIA’s conference on November 7^th.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 18th, 2017

Hannity Goes Solar. I wasn’t expecting to find a video with audio from Sean Hannity speaking intelligently about the solar trade case. The audio was dubbed over the video and I haven’t figured out the original airing of it yet but it’s real. Make sure to tweet it out and get it viral.
Price Inflation. GTM Research published a 201 petition analysis. The data shows that the petition has already distorted market reality and driven prices well above global average. That’s the problem with this because even if the remedy isn’t put in effect yet, impacts are already felt. Deals aren’t getting done and people are already losing their jobs. Most of all, the market isn’t looking into the future. I urge you to keep moving forward because you will regret the gap in pipeline if you pull back now.
Market Bottom Falls Out.Looking at remedies in increments of 10 cents per watt, it shows what would happen to the market (it’s not good). The utility scale market would drop 10% at 10 cents and over 50% if a full 40 cent tariff is put in place. The requirement of the 201 petition is that the benefits of the remedy outweigh the negative impacts. No responsible person could argue that a remedy would help the solar industry or the US job market in any way.
Redefine Suniva’s Ownership. Many talking points have named Suniva as a foreign owned company, which structurally is probably true. It does create the confusion because Shunfeng has come out against the 201 petition. Suniva is controlled by the court and its primary DIP lender, SQN. So when you talk about Suniva, I think controlled by an offshore hedge fund is more accurate.
Stion’s Situation. Yesterday, news about Stion ceasing business operations was reported by multiple outlets. The company, which testified in favor at the first 201 hearing, gave little comments to me at the time. They did however continue to market themselves, I received an email urging me to buy product as late as last week. Stion’s failure is one of managements doing. They spent over $200million over the past decade on a bet that silicon prices would create high commodity pricing for crystalline modules. Ask Uni-Solar, Miasole, Solyndra and other thin film how that same bet worked out.
Storage In MA SMART. One of the interviews at SolarWakeup Live! Boston will be Michael Judge, the person in charge of getting SMART drafted and implemented for the MA solar market. Part of the program is the adder for energy storage, within a matrix on % of capacity and hours of charge. I look forward to learning more about how the dispatching of solar assets will play into the market resiliency.
Presented By True Green Capital. Our current partnership, Fund III, is actively seeking investment opportunities and channel partners to deploy capital in a scalable focused on DG and small utility scale projects.  Fund III has ~$350million in equity commitments to build out a ~$1billion solar portfolio.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 17th, 2017

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Suniva Gets Money. A judge has approved an additional $3million loan from DIP lenders. The majority of the money is going to Mayer Brown, the law firm, representing Suniva in the 201 petition with remaining dollars going to payroll and keeping the lights on. I am somewhat surprised to see that the payroll is still this high, likely representing 30-40 FTE still on the team.

For What? If you recall, SQN had between $51 and $52million in loans to Suniva before the DIP loans started. The 201 petition is meant to try and recoup as much of that as possible at the cost of the industry’s job losses. In the meantime, the only visible Suniva executive continues to get bonus payoffs comparable to singing for Ursula. SQN has no intention, in my opinion, to restart Suniva, solely focused on recouping its capital. I’ve been told that US manufacturing would be thin on labor and include more robots instead, which makes me wonder and ask people in the know what the market value of the Suniva equipment is.

China Diplomacy. I continue to be shocked that this is happening to solar. When you read the Axios article, you have to wonder why solar has to be held to the higher standard of being integrated in the US. Bankers, lawyers and developers from the US are doing business across the world in solar. SunPower stated on the record how much money they invest in R&D in the US with US labor and scientists. I bring up the iPhone again, because there is no more obvious product in our lives that relies on foreign manufacturing.

Where This Ends. Trump is scheduled to head to China in November, after the vote by the ITC on one or more remedies. While the ITC remedies will be important, I see the potential for a buffet of options to come from the commission with an array of remedies to choose from. I expect the staff to be read in to the options before the full proposal goes to the President because this is going to come up in China. The minimum price doesn’t seem likely to me and the quotas without a way to fill the gap in our market are also too damaging. The question is how high the tariff, per watt, will be. Whether through and import license or as a tariff, with a mechanism to drive some money to US manufacturers, a per watt price adder is the most likely outcome in my mind.

Podcast Plug. States are the place for solar policy drives the market. I interviewed Lucy Mason from AriSEIA here, and I look forward to speaking with MA Senator Boncore about NEM Caps and the director of MA DOER about SMART program.

Presented By EnterSolar. EnterSolar is a leading provider of solar photovoltaic solutions to the commercial marketplace that is ranked the #1 solar developer in New York State and in the top 10 nationally.  We are currently hiring at our growing company.

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Yann

Lucy Mason – Arizona SEIA’s Executive Director and Former Republican State Legislator

Yann is joined by AriSEIA’s Lucy Mason. Lucy is the executive director of Arizona’s State Chapter, a republican and former Chair of the Water and Energy Committee in the State House of Representatives in Arizona. Arizona has been the battleground for solar net metering for many years and Lucy has recently joined a settlement. We talk about how solar can speak to republicans and the mutual benefits to both sides. This is the last in the conversations with State Chapter directors. Make sure to check out SolarWakeup Live! in Boston on 10/31 and D.C. on 12/6. Tickets available but selling … Read More →

This is your SolarWakeup for October 16th, 2017

Speakers in Boston. Senator Boncore, sponsor of S. 1824, which attempts to increase the net metering cap and Michael Judge, Director of Renewable Energy at MA DOER, will be joining our conversation in Boston. What will it take to get NEM cap raised and SMART program implemented? Join us on 10/31 in Boston.
SolarWakeup Live! DC. Tickets are now available here. Join us on December 6^th for a great conversation. Speakers will be announced soon and sponsorships still available.
Solar In Arizona. I’ve been waiting to release this podcast, a conversation with Lucy Mason of AriSEIA. Lucy is the former Chairwoman of the Energy Committee in the Arizona State legislature and a member of the republican party. Yet she leads AriSEIA and we talk about the settlement and the politics of solar in Arizona.
Closing Coal. Luminant, Texas’s largest power generator and a subsidiary company owned by Berkshire Hathaway, is closing two coal plants in Texas. The question for solar is what less coal power means for our market. In Texas the market is made by natural gas and cheap wind and not solar but the power needs will remain. Unlike most other power sources, solar isn’t getting financed as a merchant asset because the marginal cost of production is zero and the market knows that.
Inefficient and Costly. Coal plants have been depreciated many times over and most current owners of plants have either valued their asset beyond peak value or bought them as distressed assets. The plants in Texas are 30 years old and repowering them doesn’t make financial sense. Even if Trump/Perry do all they can to prop up the power markets, long term investors know that coal will be regulated against over the next 30 years if you were to build a new asset. With China halting coal construction and development, our infrastructure investors know where this will all end.
Cost of Freedom. Rick Perry, at a congressional hearing, was asked about the cost of his new ‘resiliency’ rule (code for giving billions in subsidies for coal plants). His response was priceless, pun intended. He retorted by saying, “What’s the cost of freedom, that’s not something I would leave up to the free market.” From a policy standpoint, this is well documented as the societal benefit test which regulators have had available to them for years but utilities and ratepayer advocates fight against.
Helping Miners. Maybe he can ask a coal miner what the cost of his health and well being is too, because I’d guess that he’d rather install solar than go underground and mine for coal.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 13th, 2017

Happy Friday the 13^th. Yesterday we added Michael Judge, Director of Renewable Energy at MA DOER, to the SolarWakeup Live! Boston agenda. Michael has been leading the implementation of the SMART program and the conversation will yield vital information for solar companies interested in the market. Get your tickets here.
SolarWorld Files Their Post Hearing Brief. The briefs offer no insight into what commissioners will do, they are regurgitations of talking points. In SolarWorld’s version, it basically takes a bunch of solar reporters articles and their interviews with companies to try and shape their case. In some instances, when reporters have come out to set the record straight, SolarWorld then attacks them. The adjustment plan goes into a 5 year plan similar to my 5 year plan where I end up a billionaire. Lots of hopes and dreams about how 5 companies will make 1GW or more in the US without importing cells and setting it all up in 6-9months. I guess they expect the US solar market to shrink by 50%. They do go into detail about their sales process, hoping to be acquired by a strategic in a process run by Macquarie with the caveat that the buyer could change the adjustment plan, i.e. no promises made to the ITC.
How Many iPhones Are Made In America? How many cell phones are made in the US? Apple, Samsung and Google (HTC) manufacturer their cell phones abroad. Nobody would argue that Apple and Google are not American companies that create substantial benefits to the US economy. Imagine a small, niche company that is bankrupt and owned by a foreign investor files for relief to double the cost of your iPhone. It will be $2k now so that it can be made in the US. Sales would plummet and innovation would likely slow at the company to focus on cost. That is the exact same thing that Suniva and SolarWorld are asking for. On the other hand, Apple would never let a filing get past the front doors of the ITC.
Bernie Sanders Weighs In. Sanders is famously against trade deals including NAFTA, TPP and others. The Senator from Vermont wants US to make more stuff which is why he likely sees the 37,000 solar manufacturing jobs in the US and smiles. He also understands that a remedy must have benefits that outweigh the costs, regardless of whether the jobs affected by the remedy are caused by market competition.

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Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for October 12th, 2017

Tomorrow I will be announcing the final two speakers for SolarWakeup Live! Boston. The lineup is sure to give you the news about the MA solar market you need to know.

ITC Remedy Process Update, Filings Are In. Public versions of the post-hearing briefs were due yesterday afternoon. Most are in except for the SolarWorld public version, which will likely be uploaded sometime today. Limited surprises except for new filings from First Solar and Tesla, comments below. They’re long and mostly boring. The Q&A offers the most detail but again sticks to talking points.

Key Things About The Case. Rules require that any remedy must provide greater economic and social benefit than costs. Commissioners can propose their own remedy or multiple remedies which are voted on 10/31. Final decision rests with the President who can approve, deny or propose his own remedy, therefore we know nothing until he speaks or tweets his decision.

Suniva Goes With Fake News. In responding to SEIA’s testimony and filings, Suniva goes with “it’s not true.” That was the response in the first two points. Going issue by issue, Suniva sticks to their points that the US industry has been injured and needs relief. Suniva argues that Commissioners should ignore the job losses to the solar industry since the losses are “repercussions on those who benefitted from the assault (e.g. those who had access to historically cheap modules).” In short, Suniva is calling all investors, developers and racking manufacturers accessories in an assault on them.

SEIA Asks, How Do Petitioners Get Back On Top? The most contentious part of the hearing was when the commissioners asked Suniva and SolarWorld for an adjustment plan which is supposed to be issued. Without this, Commissioners cannot analyze how a remedy would leave the petitioners in a healthy state after the 4 year period. Moreover, Commissioners need to ask how the rest of the industry would fare if there is not enough access to cells and modules for the US market.

First Solar Goes All In, For Suniva & SolarWorld. First Solar has let the news speak for them, mainly letting the message be framed that tariffs would be good for them since they are excluded. During their Q1 and Q2 earnings calls, they spoke vaguely about their position on the case and have stayed quiet on their involvement (if any) or communication (if any) with the petitioners. They are excluded since the petition is exlusively for crystalline PV products. Now they go all in for relief on the industry, my guess because their stock has been moving up when votes at the ITC go in the petitioner’s favor. No comment from First Solar on what remedy they want or if they support the minimum price and import quotas. Instead they say they support “fair and effective” remedies.

SunPower Stays On Message, Asks For Help. SunPower has been a vocal supporter of SEIA in this case and having CEO Tom Werner speak at the hearings. In addition to supporting the SEIA filings, SunPower also filed their own response, for the purpose of asking for an exclusion to the tariff. With a self-described differentiated technology, SunPower states that their high efficiency creates a higher tariff for higher efficiency modules and since they sell a different technology would seek to be excluded from the case. Other unique products like Goal Zero also asked for exclusion from the remedy.

No Love For 8Point3 Partners. Mostly done without calling the other party out by name, SunPower and First Solar are clearly on opposite sides here. SunPower devotes an entire section outlining the quasi-monopoly that the ITC would create for First Solar with an exclusion for thin film modules. In some language, SunPower calls it an unjust enrichment.

Tesla Wants A Rising Tide, And Some Cells. I was hoping Tesla would comment in post-hearing briefs and they did. The company wrote a thorough brief on why the remedy is bad for solar even though Tesla is on the path for vertical integration and is building US cell and module manufacturing with Panasonic. They give good data on how long it takes to build a plant and the cost associated with it. It does appear that Tesla will need to import cells which defines a clear gap in US supply chain if ITC adopts the petitioners remedy. In short, Tesla would have the largest capacity in the US in short order and would benefit if remedy is issued but sees a rising tide lifting all of solar. Thank you.

The Deal Moving Towards 72-Cell Modules.  A deal has been floating and the undertone is in the filings. Developers like NextEra and 8Minute push for an exclusion for 72 cell modules for utility scale markets because neither Suniva or SolarWorld make their market here. They likely don’t want to have to negotiate with First Solar in a position of strength either. The argument is that 72 cell modules make up a separate market from the one that Suniva and SolarWorld serve, residential and C&I, and since they cannot show how they were hurt by the utility scale market it should be exempt. The deal that some are pushing for would have the remedy only placed on 60 cell modules and leave the price sensitive market of utility scale as is with current AD/CVD tariffs in place.

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Yann