This is your SolarWakeup for February 26th, 2018

201 Woes. SunPower is cutting jobs. As a premium, high efficiency module, SunPower took a disproportionate hit from the 201 tariffs. Premium modules, with higher prices, get a 30% tariff that is more $/watt than a mass-market poly module. There are business impacts affecting the company as well, given that its utility scale segment was suffering from low margins and First Solar’s series 6 is taking a bite out of the efficiency advantage. SunPower must be talking internally about focusing on the C&I and residential markets by owning the dominant market share in those markets. That’s what I would do if I were them, great supply chains into dealers with a suite of financing options that make deals go forward. Solar is hard enough and being all things to all segments is too difficult.

Improving Conferences. I want to take you behind the scenes for a moment. SolarWakeup Live is a concept that comes out of 10 years attending and speaking at conferences and conventions. It’s true that there is a solar conference every single week of the year now and adding more seems odd but we have to change the way we’re doing it. Starting with the $1,000 entry fees and the 3-4 speakers per panel. Getting more than 3 answers into a panel is considered a good panel and I doubt that the attendees get much out of them. My goal is to get 1,000 folks into an auditorium for a day of 1 on 1 discussions for an entry fee under $100. We’re on track for that. After three events, SolarWakeup Live! has grown into a half day of discussions with 150 people in the room at sub $100. I’ve done interviews with one or two panelists with varying degrees of feedback and kept production costs low in order to make it work. Thus far the reviews speak highly of the content and networking with desire for more traditional venue amenities. San Francisco is the next location because it’s the most dense geography of SolarWakeup readership and our first event on the West Coast.

Community Solar. Nice reporting from Frank Andorka on the changes in New York on the size of community solar within the regulations. Moving the plants from 2mw to 5mw is a big move, allows for some fixed costs to be spread over bigger sites and greater cost efficiencies.

Reducing Pollution. I sense a shift in California. The energy rates, even when demand charges make up a large part, customer demands and environmental requirements mean corporations are looking for ways to re-tool their energy supply. With the cost of solar, solar carports, and energy storage dropping, it makes sense for every business to look for ways to execute a change in this. Financing options are also more apparent for them. PPAs remain available if the balance sheets work, PACE is almost everywhere in the State and new portfolio approaches are making the merge of efficiency and generation possible.

Big Week At SolarWakeup. I’ll be in San Francisco on Wednesday talking energy storage development, contracts and business models and ending the day at the CalSSA reception in Sacramento. On Thursday, I head to Walnut Creek for a special screening of Solar Roots - The Pioneers of PV at the QuickMount PV, the leader of residential solar mounts and rails.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 23rd, 2018

Join Me In San Francisco. I’m excited about this conversation in San Francisco. After a rollercoaster ride in 2017 with 201 and tax reform hanging over our sector most of the year, time for big money to get deployed in 2018. Whether it comes in the form of pension funds, large acquisitions or for the C&I market to finally grow with PACE across the Country, these are the topics you’ll hear about at the event. If you have any exciting ideas for speakers, please let me know. Reserve your seat here.
NJ Dealmaking. Good news from New Jersey now that the new administration has taken over. There was an RPS fix bill sitting by itself and the solar community found a play to make to get it attached to another piece of legislation, Senate Bill 877. It will increase the solar carveout and add significant energy storage capacity as well. NJ has long been the place to develop projects and it’s been tough in recent years. With this fix, addition of storage revenue streams and PACE coming up at the same time, look to NJ to be another great place to be for the solar community.
Take The Path Good For Solar. In politics, there are often strange bedfellows. In this case, there was a nuclear bailout/subsidy bill that had the momentum to make it through the legislature. When you have legislation that you want passed, you seek out this momentum and attach yourself to it. I know many people view this as bad since we are into fusion of the solar type but that’s not the right way of looking at it. Don’t blame the solar advocates either, their job was to pass a bill to fix the solar carve out and they did. Much like the ITC getting extended in a deal to remove the oil export embargo, solar wins in the end.
Bigger Community Solar. New York is increasing the community solar cap to 5mw from 2mw, which is a great move and makes a big difference in a time where the VDERs make it tough to pencil. Great job to New York regulators and advocates.
Sponsor This Space. As you saw over the past few months, sponsors of the Live! events get space in the newsletter, website and the text area to tell their story. Time is now to get involved for the SolarWakeup Live! event in San Francisco. So build your landing page and get your message out to the people in solar that read this newsletter. I bet you can name the New York sponsors, so email me to talk about your sponsorship.

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 22 nd, 2018

BP, Red Team vs Blue Team. I’ve read through BP’s Energy Outlook and have a few thoughts before digging into two particular details. First, I am surprised they even put this out since they know that people and markets will disagree. Some startups will jump for joy at the stats and plug it into their decks while others will laugh at the aging dinosaur going its own way. Second, this is their own investor deck. They are telling their investors what their version of the future looks like and why they are making certain investments outside of oil. Lastly, this is a poorly disguised analysis. If they had wanted the report to be viewed as other than corporate playbook they should have had an internal debate on each view. For greater transparency let the dissenting team publish their view alongside.

BP, Electric Cars. Cars staying on oil based fuels is good for BP which would make you think that they will take a conservative view on how many EVs hit the road. BUT, BP has an estimate of 15% of the cars in 2040 being EVs. I know there are fringe cases about cars in developing countries and island economies where estimates don’t see a large use case for EVs and we live in a bubble here in the US. That being said, as an EV driver for the past 6 years, there is zero chance that 15% is within a 10% margin of error and that is just based on common sense. On the other hand, what would BP investors say if BP came out and said 75% of cars will be EV in 20 years.

BP, Cost of Solar. BP sees cost of solar at $0.06 per kWh in 2020 leveling down to $0.05/kWh by 2040. I feel like that there is no explanation needed here. Consider this however, 9 months ago BP issued 11 year bonds at a 1.637% interest rate, which is lower than the US Government 10 year today.

Australia’s RPS Coming? The Labor party in Australia is hoping to get a 75% renewable energy target by 2025 with a clean peak standard of 25% equating to about 750MW of energy storage.

It’s All Fake News. Interesting to see the online platforms that allow for grassroots activism to come out in favor of an issue are now essentially tools that don’t really require any people. Much like voting going back to paper ballots, it will become common for grassroots to urge hand written notes once again. These emails, online comments like we see during the SCANA debate, are likely being ignored.

News

Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 21st, 2018

It’s Sponsor Time. San Francisco is getting its first SolarWakeup Live! in a little less than 2 months. Like you, I’ve been at close to 100 conferences in solar, spoken on panels and sponsored various versions. Here’s the thing, I always went for the people and never the content. Why couldn’t an event allow me to do both while also letting me get business done in the city? That’s why SolarWakeup Live! was created and why sponsors get into the newsletter, website, podcast in addition to the event signage. Sponsorships should drive a return on your dollar and that’s exactly what you get here. Get in touch if your company is interested.

Houston, What Mandates. As I read this Wall Street Journal editorial, I had to ask myself why this article gets written. So I found the funny in the context, the reporter is based in Houston according to her Twitter account. So here’s a WSJ reporter in Houston blaming the growth of solar mostly on mandates. Of course, she was quick to retort that it’s not just mandates and didn’t respond to my question about subsidies for other fuel sources or the fact that monopolies are regulated requiring mandates to allow new sources to enter. Anyways, you know this but by now so should the WSJ.

No Coal For You. Coal plants are closing faster than ever before and natural gas is largely to thank for that. Monopolies around the Country saw an opportunity in the low gas costs to make a case for new rate base. It will be cheaper and cleaner they said. It will be good for consumers they said. The problem with this is that the benefit stays with power companies while the fuel risk stays with consumers. I’ve said it before but the greatest, costliest subsidy that monopolies get is the free fuel cost hedge. Imagine if the utility had to either stand behind the fuel curve for the life of the plant at shareholder expense or secure a hedge from a 3rd party. Neither of those things would happen and therefore natural gas plants are not financially competitive in the marketplace.

NY Green Bank. Some of you asked about the benefits of a green bank. I asked Alfred Griffin exactly that and the answer is seemingly obvious when you hear it. Sometimes, in a new market that is not well transacted, other sources of capital with a mission need to step up and provide the patience needed for private capital. Check out the interview here

Reserve Your Seat. April 10th in San Francisco. We’ll talk about the future of capital in solar and how California policy can shape the future of our market. 25% of the seats are already gone, get yours. 

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Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 20th, 2018

San Francisco Live! Time to head to the West Coast, SolarWakeup Live! is coming to San Francisco on April 10th. Like the events before this, it will be an afternoon with great content and more networking. After each event, I’ve been getting great feedback on how to improve the events but the core remains with a focus on the timely, valuable content. Reserve your seat quickly, the venue will be smaller than New York and there are way more readers in San Francisco than in New York. Link here.

New Solar Pod. Alfred Griffin is the President of the New York Green Bank and he joined me in New York City to talk about the work the NY Green Bank is doing. Several years ago the Green Bank was a vision of a future where a billion dollars of NY tax dollars could push private capital into a growing solar market. Now the bank has over $500 million in active pipeline and is on the verge of paying for itself. Alfred also tells us about the future of how the NYGB can help other States follow in their paths. Let me know what you think of the interview and leave a rating on iTunes.

Another Trump Tax? This time it’s steel and aluminum. At the same time as the 201 case was started, Trump initiated a trade rule that hasn’t been used since 1981. This is insane disruption in a commodity that touches every sector of the economy including solar. Racking used to cost 50 cents per watt and today we are WELL below that. Increasing the raw commodity costs of the intake product means that the segment of solar that actually has US manufacturing is going to suffer. Racking and mounts are the number 1, 2 and 3 reasons why a customer gets upset with their solar installation. Is solar involved in this trade case too because this definitely isn’t in the budget…

Let’s Deal. It’s time for all this trade noise to get dealt away. The dealmaker has to stop creating chaos and make a deal. This can’t be something that anyone in either party thinks is going to create positive growth for the US economy. The republican party is the party of free trade and while Trump ran on no trade deals, I don’t think he ran on protectionism. Congress needs to get involved and stop the chaos.

Hoarding Modules. It’s no secret that the supply chain moved modules ahead of the tariff decision. That being said, not many people moved modules without a project to put them on. If they did, this was in defense for a decision that was far worse than the 30%. Like I said in New York, if the solar industry was given a choice the day after the 201 tariff was filed to accept 30% and stop the process, the solar industry would have accepted because the uncertainty is the major killer. Moving modules ahead of the decision was the same thing, a hedge to save projects.

News

Have a great day!
Yann

E037: Alfred Griffin – President NY Green Bank at SolarWakeup Live! New York

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By Yann Brandt What: President of NY Green Bank, Alfred Griffin, Talks Solar Capital and Green Bank Success 
Summary: During an interview at SolarWakeup Live! New York, Alfred Griffin, the President of the New York Green Bank, gave an overview of the type of work that the Green Bank has been undertaking. The active pipeline is in excess of $500 million and is meant to create a level of comfort with the types of transactions for private capital. Griffin goes into detail on how the bank operates and how solar developers, investors and market participants can take advantage of NY … Read More →

This is your SolarWakeup for February 16th, 2018

Do You Vote Solar? 5 weeks from now, the solar industry will come together in celebration of Vote Solar at Equinox 2018. Today is the day to hit reply to this email and tell me that you want to sponsor Equinox. You don’t pay membership fees to Vote Solar because there are no members, no paid for boards or other fundraisers. Just Equinox and contributors. On the other hand Vote Solar has been on the ground and in the regulatory hearings representing your best interests, preserving net metering, PURPA and more around the Country. Vote Solar is opposing massive rate base projects to improve solar markets in places like Michigan. I need you to act and be a part of Equinox, if you can’t sponsor please buy tickets and join the industry. You know as much as I that Vote Solar has created a positive impact for your business this year. Hit reply now!

Seed Fund Applications. Danny Kennedy is back for more of your businesses to apply to CalCEF’s CalSEED grant program. If you are working on a great idea, you should apply. There is money and more importantly there is mentorship and marketing for your business. Link is below to apply, deadline is February 28th.

$84million Profit. I generally skip the earnings season but SolarEdge full year announcement caught my eye. This is a solar hardware company that raised a bit of a hundred million in venture money then to the IPO. Today they are worth $2billion. In 2017, revenues were in excess of $600million and profits over $84million. Well done to a solar success story!

Starting Line. You’ll see plenty of coverage on the FERC approved NOPR on energy storage. It still requires implementation at the local level but it essentially brings storage to the grid operation. There are shortcomings in the order but this is a process with a good start.

Q&A. This weekend, don’t miss the Q&A from New York where the audience was asking the questions. This will happen again at SolarWakeup Live! San Francisco expected to happen the second week of April. More details to come soon! Enjoy your weekend, no edition on Monday, I’ll be back on Tuesday with your solar news.

News

Have a great day!
Yann

This is your SolarWakeup for February 15th, 2018

PACE. Many readers that have followed my career know that solving C&I solar has been a longtime problem I have wanted to fix. We, collectively as an industry, know that credit is the central problem that isn’t solved like the FICO score solves the problem in residential. That is why I am excited to be doing consulting work as an Advisor to CleanFund, the market leader of commercial PACE. Over the next few months, I’ll be back speaking to many of you about how we can all work together and fix this problem. C&I energy users represent almost 50% of the total energy consumption but when you look at the unrated commercial solar market, it’s basically zero. I see PACE doing for C&I solar what the loan did for residential. PACE isn’t what it was a few years ago, rates are competitive and the process is much more refined. More to come on this.

New Podcast. This is a reverse interview with the audience at SolarWakeup Live asking the questions. Sound from the questioners is a bit low but I hope you enjoy to hear some of the thoughts. I’ll be doing this at future events as well to make sure the folks in the room get some feedback on the current issues being debated.

Wave Elections. I talk about politicizing the issue of solar at every chance I get. Tom Steyer is apparently taking advantage of the anticipated wave election in 2018 to put renewable energy as an issue on the ballot in several States. The legislative strategy is sound, partnering with some solar trade groups to message it appropriately would be a good additional improvement also. Look at this space.

State Politics. Interesting that the VA house in a monopoly reform bill which originally passed 55-41 was put up for a revote and was essentially unanimous. I’d be curious to understand the politics of that move except to cover the few that went with the democrats on the initial vote. Let’s see how this works in other States.

Corporate PPAs. Always interesting to get more detail on how the corporate PPAs are actually structured. Mostly they are some version of contract for differences (CFDs) but this explains in greater detail on how to do this and what the financial value proposition is.

News

Have a great day!
Yann

E036: Reverse Q&A With Yann Brandt, Live From SolarWakeup Live! New York

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What: Reverse Q&A With Yann Brandt, Live From SolarWakeup Live! New York 
Summary: By popular demand, the audience of SolarWakeup Live! asked me the questions during this panel. Topics included the impact of 201, what is next for solar, the future of solar advocacy and how to increase the feedback loop with SolarWakeup readers. SolarWakeup View: Listen to the podcast to hear the SolarWakeup View.

This is your SolarWakeup for February 14th, 2018

Battery Thoughts. If you were in solar in 2007, email me how much you paid for your first module and what you paid for your last module. Then think about the following, nobody else was using silicon wafers and the price dropped an enormous amount. Then think about batteries for energy storage. At best, I see energy taking 10% of the global market share of the lithium ion production. Maybe you stretch the assumptions and get to 25% but transportation will take the vast majority of it. That’s the game folks, everything is going to electrify because storage costs will become nothing. Then add the speed it brings to grid operations, elimination of intermittency in generation and reduction in grid upgrades.

Innovation. I spent the last two days at the SunShot summit here in DC. First, I am glad to see that people are targeting real and imminent problems in our space in hardware, software and business model innovation. Second, they need better access to capital and ability to network within the space. Third, these startups do a terrible job in marketing. I am the easiest media platform in the industry to reach out to, thousands of you can talk to me with the click of a reply button and it almost never happens. Our industry is a rising tide that helps everyone. Some of us will sink but I am sure of the fact that if someone does well, they reinvest into the space. SolarWakeup Ventures???

Three Pronged Solar Value. At some point we will draw the picture but the solar industry is surrounded by three major trillion dollar industries. Transportation OEMs, oil & gas majors and power IPPs are all making major moves because of the electrification of transportation.

Yieldcos. Pension funds are yieldcos for the pensioners looking for their monthly retirement check. They just happen to be private and less volatile. That’s where solar assets belong because the upside is limited for a long term solar asset owner but the downside is managed properly. Yieldcos may be gone from public markets, but they are not gone, far from it.

News

Have a great day!
Yann