This is your SolarWakeup for November 7th, 2018
Thank you all for showing up at SolarWakeup Live! in Jersey City. It was an amazing crowd of 180 top solar executives and first round of feedback says that the conversations with the speakers had great content. The excitement of the day and the yet to be digested election results means that the column will be back on Thursday.
Presented by PV Pros. PV Pros provides nationwide technical services for investors and asset managers. We manage your technical needs while you focus on the financial aspects of development, acquisition, and ownership. Our team of professionals offer technical due diligence, inspections and testing, subject matter experts for disputes, preventative maintenance, repairs, and monitoring across the United States.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 5th, 2018
Greetings from 37,000 feet. I am on my way to New Jersey for SolarWakeup Live! in Jersey City. Big thanks to the sponsors and the attendees that have registered. I look forward to a week of meetings in New York following the biggest Wakeup event to date.
Presented By Conti Solar. Conti Solar, a national EPC, O&M, and energy storage company. Our attention to detail, flawless execution and collaborative culture has enabled us to successfully develop and install over 500 MW of solar projects since our early initiatives in 2004. We leverage established partnerships with solar developers, IPPs, utilities, off-takers, suppliers and landowners to streamline project development, design, construction and operations; drive down project costs and create value across all project stakeholders. Majority-owned by Ares EIF with a minority position retained by the Conti Group, Conti Solar is well positioned with a diversified network of industry experts and the financial resources to be a trusted, long-term partner. Learn more at www.contisolar.com.
Incentives Not Taxes. Over time, the headlines go away and reality sets in. Shortly have the solar 201 tariff was implemented, a few factories were announced. Factories that would open in the US and caused the public to show support for the assessment. However, as the year has gone by, more tariffs on Chinese imports have been implemented and the overall support for doing manufacturing appears to have left the solar game.
Build A Community, Part 2. A month ago Facebook announced a solar farm for their data center in New Mexico, this month the data center is in Alabama and so is the solar farm. Alabama doesn’t have policies that enable Facebook users to go solar with limited or no access to net metering and high fees by some utilities.
Is Florida Really? Just south of the Alabama border is Florida, a State that is very similar politically. The headlines last week spoke clearly about the market growth which was largely talking about the recent utility owned solar farms that were approved. So in short, Florida is growing massively and has a ton of upside. Most importantly, Florida has strong building departments that will fight against some of the dodgy solar engineering that happens across the Country. You can’t just build things in Florida that look pretty but don’t meet the building code.
Election Week, Climate Change Edition. This week I hope everyone heads to the polls. A lot of the issues on the ballot are centered around what is happening in States. Regardless of your political persuasion, solar is still not a defining issue on the ballot for politicians which means you still have the ability to choose elected officials that are very much different on the issue. One will support net metering, one will not. One will fight for solar interconnection streamlining, one will not.
Standing Up In Congress. Over the past 2 years, as climate change becomes a more important topic politically, members of Congress have joined the climate change caucus. The caucus sounds good but it has failed to adequately provide political cover mostly because climate change issue hasn’t come to the forefront yet. Don’t be surprised if that changes soon though.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 2nd, 2018
Have a wonderful Friday. Monday’s SolarWakeup will be coming to you from the air as I fly to New Jersey for the 5th SolarWakeup Live! event. Most of the previous interviews are available online at solarwakeup.com. Join us on Tuesday in Jersey City and make sure you vote!
Making Resi Storage Pencil. Sunnova announced yesterday the addition of their solar plus storage offering to the Texas market. This continues the market trend of giving consumers a choice to have storage with CleanChoice making an offer for storage in the Maryland market. What is driving the consumer’s demand for storage given that storage still needs to drive price down?
Can California Grow More? California is 50% of the US market and it will have to work hard to keep that number steady, not because California is declining but because other States are growing nicely. That being said, companies are investing big in the growth here. In this case, Vivint Solar, is announcing a 20 year fixed price offering to consumers which locks in a rate for electricity and could cause consumers to jump into the deal. Will be interested to see how it does.
Coal? PJM CEO spoke about the coal bailout needs yesterday as covered by Utility Dive. The bailout, he says is unnecessary, would choose generation mix by fuel choice instead of pricing the service that is most desired. With GTM reporting that more than 30GW of coal is ready to be retired in the next few years, it is imperative that the policies are future proof. I.e. if the goal is to have backup power from offshore wind and solar energy, than price the value of keeping electrons standing by instead of marking a price to how much coal is sitting in the backyard.
NIMBY Partners. The Department of Interior approved a massive three square mile project near Joshua Tree and now solar is fighting against the Sierra Club. Understanding the fight is straightforward, this is about wildlife preservation and habitat conservation while the solar development is about adding more renewable energy to the grid. I don’t want to argue the right and wrong about the complaint by Sierra Club but this is a valuable time to point out to donors that Sierra Club and solar industry advocacy groups are different. Sierra Club can’t go to donors and tout their desire to expand solar (taking tens of millions of funds that donors think go to solar advocacy) when those donors really should be looking at solar focused advocacy. I’m not knocking environmental groups and the mission, which I support. I am pointing out that fundraising for solar is made harder by the grab for the dollars that want to support solar.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 1st, 2018
Presented by PV Pros. PV Pros provides nationwide technical services for investors and asset managers. We manage your technical needs while you focus on the financial aspects of development, acquisition, and ownership. Our team of professionals offer technical due diligence, inspections and testing, subject matter experts for disputes, preventative maintenance, repairs, and monitoring across the United States.
Happy Halloween. Like solar, it is clear that snickers and twix are the candy of choice for kids. Anyone that passes out something else loves fossil fuels. Regardless, a long evening of trick or treating means that there is no column today. More to come tomorrow. In the meantime, please support the gracious sponsors of SolarWakeup Live! by learning more about them on the links by clicking on their logos.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 31st, 2018
Presented by Pfister Energy. Changing the way energy is generated and delivered. Pfister Energy is a leading turnkey design-build renewable energy solutions company. Servicing C&I, community and utility sectors for solar, storage and O&M. Visit pfisterenergy.com for more information.
Storage Study. Just a few days before our keynote interview with the NJ BPU President at SolarWakeup Live! the BPU has awarded Rutgers the grant to study energy storage and how it should be implemented. The $300k grant will allow the BPU to implement the clean energy rules around energy storage. The BPU has also released information about SRECs for projects before the new plan is put in place.
Storage Implementation. Just north of NJ and PJM, ISO-NE is working on its own implementation of energy storage. In addition to the ISO-NE, storage will be prevalent in the market within MA through SMART. All this to say that the storage integration future is well underway. Count 2020/2021 as the key breakout years while the markets work through development and capital education in the next year.
Retail Energy Storage. An interesting twist to buying clean energy through retail choice programs. CleanChoice, the clean energy retail energy provider, is working with homeowners to have them add energy storage in the home for backup purposes. The interesting marketing angle is that this could lengthen the relationship between the homeowner and the retail company, creating a stickiness in the home between the two similar to cable or alarm providers.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 30th, 2018
Presented By Conti Solar. Conti Solar, a national EPC, O&M, and energy storage company. Our attention to detail, flawless execution and collaborative culture has enabled us to successfully develop and install over 500 MW of solar projects since our early initiatives in 2004. We leverage established partnerships with solar developers, IPPs, utilities, off-takers, suppliers and landowners to streamline project development, design, construction and operations; drive down project costs and create value across all project stakeholders. Majority-owned by Ares EIF with a minority position retained by the Conti Group, Conti Solar is well positioned with a diversified network of industry experts and the financial resources to be a trusted, long-term partner. Learn more at www.contisolar.com.
All About The Lease. Duke is asking the North Carolina commission to approve the deregulated services group to provide a lease for onsite solar projects. This is the first entity that I have heard of to provide onsite leases and the details stay clear of the benefit to the business owner. From a regulatory perspective this is a departure of the standard protocol to separate regulated and deregulate entities. It is not common practice to allow both side of the house to compete in the same market geography.
What’s Next? It is becoming a full time job for many reporters to cover Elon Musk and his adventures to save humanity on Earth and beyond. I do find some of the other musings by Musk to be of interest, especially as he begins the thought process beyond vehicle ownership. This is an interesting logic to have to encounter as the CEO of an auto OEM but reality given the future of autonomous vehicle infrastructure. One utility exec once gave me his viewpoint that the utilities would in fact be the taxi company of the future, consumers paying for it with the same account they paid their utility bill with.
Underestimating Municipalities. This could be the story all about how the municipalities caused the IOU business model to turn upside down. In Kentucky, a place where utilities have always gotten along with customers until of course the free market gave options that made them look at a different option. It’s curious that if IOUs get too greedy and stay anti-solar that Cities across the Country may lead the charge for change.
DG Value Analysis. This may be the first, correct me if I’m wrong, analysis of distributed energy storage projects. In conjunction with net metering (I know it may be duplicative) this could result in a great benefit to the grid by the distributed solar plus storage assets.
Overflow Room Opened. We’ve reached the original capacity of 150 seats for the SolarWakeup Live! event next week but we’re opening the extra seating section for another 30 seats. Get yours now to join us next week.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 29th, 2018
Presented by Aten Solar. Your single source in adding value to your supply chain and procurement. Aten Solar is your go-to source for the best closeout pricing on new and surplus modules for your project needs.
Sununu Sticks To Talking Points. A new metering bill in New Hampshire passed the legislature and has been vetoed by the Governor. Sununu gave his best to argue cost shift as the main reason but we know where most of this comes from. One of the useful arguments in other States has come right from the customers, instead of solar professionals. This could be a useful tactic to show that solar means more textbooks for kids paid for with the energy savings.
Hmmm, GM Goes All In On EVs? General Motors proposed a change to the emissions targets to the Trump administration. Instead of focusing on higher efficiency vehicles, GM wants a zero emissions target which puts 7 million EVs on the road by 2030. This appears to be a positive shift towards EVs but also slows the ICE fuel standards by focusing the plan on EVs. The target of 7million by 2030 is rather small in my opinion and it would be best to let the market drive the adoption of EVs instead of the standard.
Solar Makes News, Not Headlines. We had the Musk versus Buffett stories when Nevada was debating net metering and now we have Adelson versus Buffett. The story centers around the energy choice ballot initiative which Adelson wants to see passed. Casinos, which Adelson owns, want to buy their own energy including really cheap desert solar and storage instead of having to buy electricity from NV Energy which Buffett owns. Consumer choice is the argument here. I doubt Buffett is very much involved in the argument except for the push to his CEOs to generate more free cash flow but he’s on the wrong side on this one.
Future of CCAs. By 2030, I expect that most consumers have retail energy choice and an IOU providing wire services. This is the natural progression from the IOU system we have today and surely looks like CCAs are the way to handle that in areas that IOUs have franchise agreements. At some point the market will likely have to make this a bit clearer but in the meantime, California is a test case for what happens when there is mass adoption of CCAs.
Catch Up NY Times. Sunrun versus Tesla/SolarCity, centered around Tesla leaving the top spot is a year too old of a story but just in time for the NYT I guess. Just last week I wrote about the surprising data from the Tesla earnings call and how they appear to make a run at the top spot now instead of coming in shy of Sunrun. Still good for solar to make it to the national pages of the NYT.
One Week Out. Join us next Tuesday in Jersey City for SolarWakeup Live! including a great happy hour right after the event.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 26th, 2018
I hope you have a great weekend, all things are looking up in solar. Solar on!
Better Solar Means Better Market. North Carolina is having all state chapter members sign a code of conduct and ethics. Not only new members but also existing members. It could be expected that the market will educate consumers of this fact and guard consumers to only do business with companies that are members, therefore having signed the pledge. This is in line with the thought that members should do business with members because such a circular membership economy makes the trade group much more valuable and powerful.
Oil Versus Energy. It’s getting loud and public in the industrial battle of the 21st Century. When the Ford Model T came out, oil companies were happy to serve as the fuel source while the Edisons worked to bring light to your home. The industries didn’t cross much and kept away from each other in legislatures across the Country. That is all changing and the coverage from E&E News highlights that oil companies will seek to slow the adoption of EVs by slowing the deployment of charging infrastructure.
How Would You 100%? With SB100 enacted, the CPUC wants to see the plan from utilities about their plan to reach 100%. I look forward to seeing a decarbonized, decentralized energy transition. How would you make it happen?
VA Charges Forward. Virginia has turned quite the corner towards renewables, as if the State has taken the mantle from the mid-Atlantic states and moved to push it to the next limit. The market is still lacking on the distributed side, something I assume is based on the headline cost of electricity without taking into account the network savings. States should be getting their residential markets up to 250MW or better per year without any limitation that causes ups and downs in the market.
More Solar Jobs! More training dollars for solar jobs. This is one of the biggest limitation in the growth of solar companies that cannot find enough labor for their installations. We need to start thinking about the programs that will funnel electricians and installers that work in solar into the workforce so that solar companies can compete for them and help build the solar economy.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 25th, 2018
I am in Minneapolis to participate in the Connexus Energy ribbon cutting for their solar plus storage farm. As a co-op, Connexus is looking to lower the cost of energy for consumers as CEO, Greg Ridderbusch, told me in May. Co-ops are there to help consumers get more solar in every way possible, that’s why I am here even though my day job is in residential solar. Congrats to Connexus and their partners Engie and NextEra on the project.
Presented by Pfister Energy. Changing the way energy is generated and delivered. Pfister Energy is a leading turnkey design-build renewable energy solutions company. Servicing C&I, community and utility sectors for solar, storage and O&M. Visit pfisterenergy.com for more information.
Storage Company For Sale. The energy storage integrator that is providing the 42MWh project to Vistra Energy in Texas is up for sale. We got a view at the prospectus that the investment bankers are shopping and it shows a robust pipeline which isn’t surprising given the rise in interest in energy storage. FlexGen has been aggressive in solar given their knowledge with both AC and DC coupled systems. With energy storage increasing across the Country it is good to see the consolidation happening sooner which will likely increase the bankability of the providers in the market. If pipeline is as valuable in storage as it is in solar and the knowledge barrier in storage is greater, I don’t expect the line of bidders to be short in FlexGen.
Checking In On SolarCity. Solar in Tesla may not be as dead as folks make it out to be. Tesla announced 93MW in the 3rd quarter which is only a few megawatts less than what Sunrun guided towards in the quarter. This means that some of the strategy of selling through the stores is working and the Model 3 ramp up may be helping. I don’t have the detail of whether the 93MW is all residential but I assume that is a decent guess.
Solar In Arizona. A deep dive into solar in the New Yorker is not common and reading the first 1000 words made me think that it’s a good thing and it may still be. Some of the talking points come straight from the RPS opposition including things like solar only shines at some times and it is a cost increase to consumers. With solar plus storage already at sub natural gas prices in Arizona, the data in the talking points are misleading. The positive takeaway is that readers of the New Yorker are different than the readers of SolarWakeup and the broader audience is thinking about solar, I wish that it was broader than three interviewers though.
Is Capital The Need? An interesting question, does the industry need more capital in order to meet climate goals. Couple of thoughts. The question is the wrong premise, it should ask: More Capital Needs To Be Deployed To Meet Goals. There is a limitless amount of capital interested in projects that meet sustainability goals. Additionally, the commentary could increase the scope of the capital. If capital is available for projects and the pipeline of projects is limiting the progress, then we need capital that is willing to take different risks besides fixed contract off taker agreements at return hurdles that are in line with the pipeline. Lastly, more capital needs to be willing to take bigger bets on technology risks. This last point is in line with what I’ve written about the Bill Gates concept of solving climate change with breakthrough technologies.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 24th, 2018
Presented By Conti Solar. Conti Solar, a national EPC, O&M, and energy storage company. Our attention to detail, flawless execution and collaborative culture has enabled us to successfully develop and install over 500 MW of solar projects since our early initiatives in 2008. We leverage established partnerships with solar developers, IPPs, utilities, off-takers, suppliers and landowners to streamline project development, design, construction and operations; drive down project costs and create value across all project stakeholders. Majority-owned by Ares EIF with a minority position retained by the Conti Group, Conti Solar is well positioned with a diversified network of industry experts and the financial resources to be a trusted, long-term partner. Learn more at www.contisolar.com.
The Future Of Corporate Solar. On the day that Walmart announces another 23MW with SunPower, I am also thinking about the continued focus on serving corporate load from afar. Last week Google announced the work they are doing to match load with generation. Facebook is securing energy through special utility rate schedules. DG will always be the most interested and visible way solar is integrated but the density and offset will never be 100%. Expect more to come on entities that match load and generation in innovative ways.
Making Solar A Debate Topic. On Sunday night during the Florida gubernatorial debate, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum made solar a focal point about jobs and climate change. This comes n the moves that Tallahassee Electric built a solar farm with Florida developer, Origis Energy, the same time that Trump was announcing the departure from the Paris climate accords. This is a smart move politically given where consumers stand in their support of the issue and a good pivot from climate change to the popular issue appealing to both sides with jobs and consumer choice.
Venture Nonsense. The often forward thinking venture accelerator, Y Combinator, has posted its request for startups in the seldom considered carbon removal technologies. I respect the initiative but why not focus on an established market and show the returns that one could make in the solar industry for example. Why not highlight and plan to invest in renewable startups to pick up the void that the SunShot initiative leaves after their shift to hardware?
Brazil Solar Turn Around. 3 years ago investing in Brazil was a non-starter. That has now changed which is the gentle reminder that some markets are one election or impeachment away from investment grade.
ISO Storage Preview. Like ISO-NE, PJM and the NJ BPU are looking at energy storage programs that will start the market. ISOs will be looking to integrate energy storage across their markets and solar developers will look to see how to take advantage of it. The key question for regulators is what problem do they want to solve and for developers the question is do they have the right money. All these questions will be asked during SolarWakeup Live! on November 6th.
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Yann