This is your SolarWakeup for June 11th, 2018
I’ll Take Instant Permits for $1. Imagine a solar market where you can install solar like it was an air conditioner. Sell it, install it and then pull the permit. It puts some pressure on you to do it right but it solves so many more of the solar market’s inefficiencies. This idea, not without prior attempts, is being spearheaded by Andrew Birch and many others and I sat down with Andrew in this episode of SolarWakeup Live! podcast. We talk about why, why now and what’s next. If there is a conversation you want to be listening to, this is one of them.
A Meeting To Make It Happen. The starting point on the execution towards instant permits is a two day summit which happened last week. Day 1 hosted at Sunrun and day 2 hosted at Mosaic in the Bay Area. Co-chairing with Andrew Birch are Lynn Jurich and Billy Parish. Facilitated by the Rocky Mountain Institute and with involvement of SEIA and The Solar Foundation this makes it a venture to be looked after. More details about the meeting in the podcast and how you can get involved.
Where Do We Go From Here. This is just the start! After the meeting comes a decision of how to proceed, how to raise money and where to get the early victories. SunShot invested in this idea through Broward County, a venture that appears to have failed as the program was passed to the Florida Solar Energy Center and the website is dead. Unfortunate but hopefully recoverable by the trade groups and private sector. The residential advisory council from SolarWakeup will be involved and advising the course of this endeavor to make sure that small solar installers have a seat at the table because without the small installers this will not go as well as it can.
Laudato Si Se Puede. The Pope is doing the work that few can assemble. Bringing oil and gas to the table and asking them to understand the needs of the planet as part of their business. The Pope and I believe in some different things but on this issue, we are in sync.
Chicago! One last panel to put speakers on, the one that has billions at stake so I’ll let you give me some ideas. Development of large scale solar in Illinois is already in the works and I want to hear from those working on it. If you know of anyone that would make a great panel discussion at SolarWakeup Live! Chicago.www.solarwakeuplive.com
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 8th, 2018
Have a great weekend. See you all in San Francisco next week and in Chicago the week following.
CUSTOMER Side Of The Meter. This may sound like NH’s Liberty Utility is acting with good faith but let’s be real. Anytime the utility wants to own equipment on your side of the meter, they are taking your ability to control your own energy usage away from you. This is the storage version of net metering, owning storage in rate base is one way to exert more control by the monopoly.
The Toll Trump Tariffs Take. Just the 201 tariffs are taking a massive toll on the industry. More than anything, it’s the uncertainty that it caused in an industry that is already struggling to keep its growth going. Every time someone mentions a company having problems to me, the joke quickly follows “Think they’ll file a 201 case?” The aluminum and steel tariffs are going to be a business planning issue as well. Hopefully the industry associations understand that these issues need to be resolved, quickly. The unknown is potentially worse than the result. So between 201, commodity tariffs, and coal bailouts, how many calls have you made to your representative?
Can CCAs Go National? As we see solar go below 3 cents per kWh, you would think that off takers would be on the prowl for more solar generation but that isn’t the case. A lot of new solar is going to the CCAs in California. Solar finance pros are ignoring (out of necessity) some of the credit issues but big solar means big dollars going into projects.
1970 Called, Wants Energy Policy Back. Take a moment and read this ridiculous article about the politics of energy in Trump world. Wouldn’t it be great if solar is the policy that gets Congress to work in a bipartisan way?
Presented By Chicago. Are you investing hundreds of millions into solar projects in Illinois? Make sure you know the rules and for $250, this is the best education you will get. solarwakeuplive.com for your tickets
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 7th, 2018
How Big Will Florida Be? Big! Here’s a couple of things to consider when you think about Florida. First, it’s a really, really big State. It takes 8 hours to drive from Miami to Tallahassee which justifies the 3rd highest usage of electricity in the Country. Second, the building codes here are as tough as they come because of a long history of hurricanes destroying homes. As such, the building officials care about the installation methods and products used, so I expect a quick stop to any subpar installation methods. Third, and most important, ‘everyone’ in Florida wants solar on their home. This is based on being in the Sunshine State and the fact that Floridians have a unique view on consumerism, more on that soon.
Consumers Come First For IPPs. NRG is shedding its power plants, the fossil ones this time. Earlier, NRG had announced it was selling its solar business to a private equity invest at the pressure of an activist investment firm. Getting rid of fossil fuel power plants is the trillion dollar game of hot potato for IPPs and that was foreseeable years ago. Much of the David Crane strategy centered around de-carbonization of the fleet but was also rooted on the fact that coal was finished. This time Wall Street is buying into the strategy, given that that customers are as well. Next step is getting back into EVs so that NRG comes full circle and gives Crane a board seat for his vision.
A Story About Tesla. It’s not all race cars and rocket ships at Tesla. At the shareholder meeting, Tesla announced it has reached a cumulative energy storage capacity of 1GWh. Given the average size of the systems, that is quite impressive and adds a level or storage scale to the company trying to lower the cost of batteries for car buyers. Look back at today as a funny milestone, because it’s so small, compared to what’s coming up.
What’s Next For Trump’s Coal Bailout. The immediate next step is likely a hearing or directive from FERC to the ISOs that will be subject to the coal bailout. It’s also indicative of the absurdity that Exelon came out with a statement against the policy. Good coverage from GTM on the legal aspects of the case.
The Jobs Of The Future. Not too many Wells Fargo carriage coachmen around anymore. That’s what happened when Ford came out with the Model T and the innovation that followed. Solar and wind plus batteries will replace much of the central power plant portfolio. Each time the innovation changes a fundamental sector, jobs have to adapt. The blacksmith became a toolsmith and so on. The same is true for internal combustion motor manufacturing sector, it is going to go away as EVs take the segment over. That is a reality of the future of work, but it isn’t going to happen overnight and economies must plan for it.
Sponsor SolarWakeup Live! Chicago. Join a great crowd of sponsors and attendees for the Chicago event on June 21st. We have a few more sponsorship slots left, email me for more info. Tickets at solarwakeuplive.com
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 6th, 2018
Are You Registered? Our Chicago event is coming up soon and you will not want to miss this because the who’s who of solar is flying in for the full day event. Get your tickets at solarwakeuplive.com and do it quickly because only about half of the tickets are left. This will definitely sell out before event day.
What Can A Major Do For You? My operating assumption is that the solar and storage ecosystem is going to be surrounded by ‘majors’ from oil, auto and energy. Look at the cap tables for energy storage companies that haven’t been acquired yet, it’s the who’s who of anyone that things the future of energy is based on intermittent generation. Look at the solar companies that have regional or segmented platforms and they are being acquired to be turned into a bigger platform to achieve goals like deploying capital or tax liabilities. What would your company look like if a major corporation invested or bought it, what would it allow or deny your team to accomplish?
Can Puerto Rico Attract Investment. I worry about Puerto Rico, even a year after Hurricane Maria destroyed much of the infrastructure. The problem isn’t about what can be done or what should be done. My concern is how it can be deployed financially. Puerto Rico isn’t in a financial position to spend the billions it takes to rebuild with renewable microgrids and it hasn’t fixed the underlying credit problem that would allow outside investors to be comfortable with the risk.
China Slows, What’s Next? This is the question I asked myself all day yesterday. If China’s market slows and there is an oversupply of modules what does that mean for the US market. This could spell a 2018 where prices reduce dramatically in the US from the oversupply but it could also mean issues around supply chain that can be bad for quality. Stay tuned…
A Greener Hawaii. Forget 100% renewable energy, Hawaii is looking to go carbon neutral in the next 20 years. Lots of work ahead but definitely achievable for this island paradise.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 5th, 2018
Strategic Reduction In China’s Solar Market? China’s solar market is in for a shocking halt after an announcement by the governing body last week. Most of the publicly traded solar companies had a bad day yesterday after being downgraded on the change in subsidy policies that kept that capacity flowing at a massive pace. Let’s see how that affects the market pricing in the US, the oversupply could create competition that will center around pricing for the domestic projects. BUT I wouldn’t be surprised if there isn’t an impact that tries to stop the oversupply from coming this way given the 201 and AD/CVD tariffs are all percentage based charges.
Big EV Infra. I was amiss in speaking about this when it happened over the weekend but multiple regulatory bodies in CA and NY approved over $1billion in EV charging infrastructure to be built by the utilities. This is a massive upside for utilities that not only get to rate base the infrastructure, something I support, but also benefit from the increased load this will create from the EV adoption curve that this will cause since consumers will no longer worry about range. The conversation with regulators should be that any increased demand should be supplied with solar and storage and not rate based power generation.
Will The Consumers See This? The Trump coal and nuclear bailouts are going to cost money but the cost isn’t bourne by taxpayers but it may cause a two stage impact. The first level is similar to steel and aluminum tariffs with manufacturers and will affect the retail energy companies. Some may not have a way to pass the additional cost to the consumers while they are under contract and consumers that are about to renew will be in for a shocking price increase. Not only will consumers pay the actual increase but there will be a regulatory risk premium that otherwise would not have been there in a rational market. The price of the unknown is sometimes bigger than the actual price increase especially when a risk committee has to think about crazy possibilities.
Settling In North Carolina. Environmental and solar groups settled with Duke on their grid modernization efforts which were originally slated for greater than $7billion and settled at $2.5billion with some pro renewables policies attached. This comes in parallel with some leading indicators that Duke may be trying to stop energy storage to be added to solar projects, more on that to come.
Climate Change Financing Risk. Do you look at the climate change risk of a property that you are looking to fund a deal on? How do you do it and have you lost a deal because of it?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 4th, 2018
Solar In Illinois. The Illinois Power Agency is looking to finalize the adjustable block program which will be key to the distributed and community solar markets in the midwest’s solar market. SolarWakeup Live will start the full day looking into the market with the director of the IPA, which on June 21st will likely have the rules finalized, so that you can get on the ground and moving forward. We have a few more sponsor spots for the event (email me) and tickets are available at solarwakeuplive.com.
Coal Collusion. Looks like coal magnate, Bob Murray, got what he wanted from Trump on the 1-year anniversary of announcing the departure of the Paris agreement. The best response going around about this announcement is from the PJM twitter account. To date, PJM has not been notified by governing agencies to prop up coal plants yet but expect that to happen. The way for the government to really prop up these plants without picking winners would also cause the value of solar generation to increase which then causes the demise of coal to quicken. So here we are, throwing wind to the free market, rules be damned.
Arizona Plea Deals Rejected. This is your reminder that the original sin in fighting solar net metering is still embroiled in a federal grand jury investigation. Now there’s news that a former regulator and lobbyist are rejecting plea deals in the case. When I read this, I can’t help but to think of the many ex parte communications happening every day across the Country and we may be better off when the power isn’t concentrated to the monopolies anymore. Just a thought.
Thoughts On NV Energy. The gigawatt of solar represents the value of solar in high irradiance areas, like Nevada. Also, I’d be amazed if storage isn’t closer to 2GWh than the 400MWh outlined in the proposal. Let’s revisit this in a few years.
Slowing Chinese Solar. New rules from the Chinese government have caused a few people off guard. This is perhaps a sign of the strength of the global markets. Imagine what else would be possible with the trade wars.
Quality Of Resi Solar. Australia has been growing distributed solar in a big way and a lot of it has to do with the ease of installing solar on homes. Little delay between selling and installation means consumers are happy. With the ability to review the installs later on, gives the consumer advocate a way to make sure installers are doing a good job and there is some work to do. In the US, we need to do more to get closer to an instant solar process. We also need to do more in having the solar industry regulated by solar experts. We will be discussing this in much greater detail this summer but ponder how the solar industry could ensure that consumers are getting great solar.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 1st, 2018
Bad wifi on the plane means no column this morning. Have a great weekend and I will see you all on Monday. Let’s get ready for a strong June to close our Q2 in a great way! SolarWakeuplive.com to register for our Chicago event.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 31st, 2018
Learn This, Import License Fee. Here is the thing for you to think about going forward with the global solar economy. As we read about new plants in the US, product is coming and going across borders. Silicon, wafers, cells, glass, back sheets etc, are made all over the world. Some innovative companies like SunPower will have an onshore/offshore strategy which creates the best blend of lead times, cost of goods and types of products the market wants. Tariffs just increase the cost of the products across the value chain and nobody benefits. If instead, we had an import license fee on modules, the market would be able to pay for local module assembly manufacturing. Any module that comes into the market from abroad would create a pool of capital from the ILF that gets distributed to domestic manufacturers. So using an example that has both on and off shore manufacturing equally, the manufacturer ends up basically being tariff free. This ensures the solar market gets low cost solar while benefitting local manufacturing. Best of both worlds!
Growing Choice In Illinois. As policy fights in energy come up, I see a natural ally for solar in the retail energy companies. Utilities see this alignment as well and fight the consumer choice rules that allow retail energy providers to compete for consumers’ business. This is happening in Illinois right now. As a tangent, this affects community solar in a big way because the rules could overlap. Learn more about community solar and adjustable block grants in Illinois at SolarWakeup Live! Chicago on June 21st. Early bird pricing ends today so get your ticket today!
EVs For Everyone. EVs everywhere, that is a future of our transportation sector that I can get behind. This isn’t just for your Tesla owners, this is a 40x growth of where we are today in the next 10 years. The future includes electric buses and scooters in addition to cars. Add this to the retirement of coal and gas peaker plants, we’re going to need a lot of solar to be built in that same time frame.
Solar Powered Peaches. Hanwha is setting up an assembly plant in Georgia which is great news. I will note once more, this has very little to do with 201. This has to do with the value of supply chain and the growth of the markets on the East Coast. The Jacksonville and Savannah ports are massive distribution hubs with rail that goes up and down the coast. 201 supporters can save their happy dance for another argument.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 30th, 2018
The Bridge Fuel To Solar. Utilities and IPPs, like Vista Energy, are showing the future of the grid by announcing intentions to build more solar and less natural gas. If natural gas was the bridge fuel, the future costs of solar and storage may be the land on the other side of the moat. This is a space to keep your eyes on as a critical power market intent, especially when it comes from IPPs that benefit from more consumer retail choice. Having forward thinking allies on our side could be a great partnership in the future.
Policy Advocacy Works. SolarCity used to spend a ton of human and financial capital on policy in the US, on their own and in partnership with advocacy groups. Since the acquisition by Tesla, the company has been quieter on policy, not necessarily absent but a lot quieter. With the news out of Australia, it appears that it may be a US internal policy to stay out of the limelight but this is a great reminder that policy advocacy is an important part of our work. Can you commit one hour of legislative outreach in June? Meet with a State rep, Member of Congress or your mayor?
Great Benchmark In Haiti. Having lived in South Florida for most of my life it’s great to see some positive news out of Haiti. Glad to show off the results of solar leaders that have pushed for more solar to be built their and drive some economic growth in the space.
Cost Of Inaction. Trillions of lost economic growth due to inaction on climate issues. This is on top of the cost of inaction that drive more damage to our society and infrastructure. Pennywise, pound foolish is the saying you are looking for.
Taking It Up A Notch. Bam! Vote Solar, ELPC, SEIA, and others are appealing the Michigan commissions decision to approve the DTE natural gas plant. At the very least I hope that the legal tie-up lasts long enough for DTE to see the virtue in our argument and rescind the request to build the gas plant.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for May 29th, 2018
A Solar Pro In Congress! On Friday I interviewed SolarCity alum, Sam Jammal. Sam is running for Congress in California 39th district and has a primary election coming up. Sam is imminently qualified and I can’t help but think of the opportunities the solar industry would have to leverage a solar pros influence in Congress. Check out my podcast interview with Sam.
The Tariff Impact. The reality of the tariffs is that our industry would be able to grow much faster without them. I’ve spoken to countless solar companies and one of my questions is always, what does your business look like if solar panels were low 30’s. I’d love to see an import license fee that is distributed to US manufacturers.
The Florida Market. We covered the Sunrun request to the Florida PSC in detail last month. Now VIvint Solar is going for their own approval by the PSC in Florida. The reason may be an abundance of caution given that Sunrun received the approval, not the lease in general. In detail, the two documents may be different in some form.
Midwest Interconnection Rules. IREC, ELPC and Fresh Energy have pushed Minnesota for better interconnection rules and have gotten some of the way there. These updates always remind me there are quiet warriors fighting for the rules and regulations that allow the solar industry to exist.
Illinois Deals. Illinois is going to be a multi 100MW market next year and there is some of it available to you. From residential and C&I behind the meter to large scale and community solar, the market rules are being finalized. At SolarWakeup Live! you will hear from ELPC’s Brad Klein and Illinois Power Authority’s Anthony Star amongst many industry participants. This amazing one-day event is a must attend if you want to play in Illinois.
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Yann