This is your SolarWakeup for September 27, 2019
SPI 2019 In The Books. The show is over and the curtains are drawn, your pockets are full of business cards and we’ll all blast nice to meet you emails on Monday. My flight back to San Francisco was the solar express, the LG sales rep next to me was not waiting until Monday to say thank you to the booth visitors! On Monday we will discuss the SPI versus NASEW, a boring and tedious topic but worthy of listening to your feedback. We will also talk about the ITC as this swings into high gear. Use the hashtag #DefendTheITC and here is the tweet from Senator Cortez-Masto Go ahead a hit like and retweet to show your thanks!
Thank You! I want to personally thank you all for the congratulations, feedback and hellos this week. Sometimes SolarWakeup is a funny thing for me given the weird dynamic between my day job and this newsletter. This was my 7th SPI since starting, I went to SPI in Orlando with about 40 subscribers and now there are more than 5,000 of you that read this daily digest. It was never meant to be a thing, but you made it one and I’m grateful for that. The dialogue you allow me to have and the help you provide to make this industry a better one is amazing. The funny thing is that a few weeks ago, right as we were closing on our sale to Esdec, SolarWakeup had its 7th birthday. A week later, as I got to know the great people at Ironridge and Ecofasten, we sent out the 2,500th edition of this newsletter. So thank you for the professional support and helping me get to where I have and continuing your support of Quick Mount as we join the Esdec group. I’m excited about the future of this industry and this company. Alongside the amazing solar installers, we will do some great things. Have a great weekend!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 26, 2019
In Case You Missed It. There is a word on the SPI floor that there is no theme this year, no focus on a regulatory matter that deserves major attention. Let me be very clear, we can get the ITC extended if we do the work and spend the money. If we don’t get the funds, about half a million dollars, and the calls/meetings to members of Congress, the ITC will not be extended. This is a cost of nearly $100billion to the US economy and likely dollars out of your pocket. Don’t get caught in the messaging whirlpool that is SPI, and focus on the real things that impact your money. If you need to know how to get involved, hit reply.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 25, 2019
The Marathon Continues. And the tax credit extension will create a fortune.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 24, 2019
Best Headline Of The Year. American farmers are pivoting to solar power to pay the bills.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 23, 2019
Welcome to SPI 2019. Let’s set some realistic expectations this week. Unlike prior years the column will be limited this week. Why? I have a day job and I am going to try and take a step back throughout the week to digest what is happening. If there are important news or events, I’ll make note of them.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 20th, 2019
Renewable Prime Day. Within 10 years, Amazon will be getting 100% of its energy from renewable sources. I’ll predict right now that this will happen in 5 or less years. By 2040, Amazon expects to be carbon neutral which is a bold goal given the massive number of miles the retailers moves every day.
The Scale Expands. Rivian is the EV startup you’ve seen driving around with their electric SUV. Earlier this year they got an investment from Amazon and now you know why. Amazon will be ordering 100,000 electric vans that should start delivering in 2021 which means Rivian needs to learn to manufacture at Tesla scale tomorrow. This also makes the Amazon electrification effort more interesting.
1.6 GW. Google entered into massive solar and wind contracts, continuing the trend for corporates into renewable procurement.
What’s Next. If Google and Amazon want to have a network effect for renewables, they should double down on renewable policy. The billionaires have the ability to see and sustain a massive policy campaign to get to 100RE for everyone including their employees, vendor’s employees and customers. Today is Climate Strike day and is the right time for the Beyond Coal campaign to be duplicated in solar.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 19th, 2019
No column today, sorry. Take joy in the fact that Trump is about to learn the name, Mary Nichols. Mary is California’s Air Resources Board Chair and not one you want to mess with. Those who know, know.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 18th, 2019
Come On Bill Gates. Bill Gates wants to shift the ITC and PTC to new energy solutions, a fair trade since solar and wind no longer need it I guess. I have an idea, why don’t we start with removing the incentives from oil and gas? Or charge flared off-gas a methane tax that is used to fund new technology development? O&G have permanent tax credits that are exempt from active/passive rules and not based on percentages while solar has dropped more than 90% in cost causing the ITC to get more than 10x the output it once paid for. Gates seems to continue the trend that solar and wind are not worth fighting for even though they are the key to fighting against climate change. I wish he would see that his words matter and choose them more carefully.
Big Pipeline. The era of braggawatts is strong, the pipeline has reached an all-time high.
Go Blue Jays. I always hoped to be the one that developed a solar deal with Johns Hopkins but I am still glad they did a deal.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 17th, 2019
Are You Carbon Neutral? Aside working in solar, what do you do to reduce or eliminate your carbon footprint? I thought about this question a lot yesterday and realized that the little I do, is not enough. Tell me your biggest tricks and habits you use to lower your footprint and how you calculate it.
Would You? Ikea is a retailer that does solar in a big way. On every roof and as an investment. Here’s a question for you and them, if they calculated the carbon cost of each product and imposed their own carbon tax, would you pay for it? This is the thought behind my carbon adjusted margin analysis. More to come.
Tesla’s C&I Offer. On the heels of the residential solar rental, Tesla is releasing their offer for C& I sites. Fixing commercial solar is my Achilles heel and this is about as close to what I would have liked to do as possible. The offer is either cash or ‘subscription’ (PPA) with the PPA only available in PGE and SDG& E-service areas. Three standard sizes are offered with 240kW on the large end, definitely skewing to the lower size spectrum than you would expect from C&I installers.
What It Solves. It’s cheap, 240kW for under $1.50 or 9.9cents per kWh with caveats for a standard install. That’s lower than most installers would propose. Let’s focus on the PPA though. First, no term, you can cancel anytime with a removal fee. Second, it doesn’t appear to have credit criteria (thank you!). Last and most importantly, it makes it super simple, building owners are consistently frustrated with their solar process.
Obvious Issues. I’d like to see the contracts to understand what they are really doing. There is an obvious concern for tax equity on the PPA, what happens if the cancellation happens in the first 5 years? What is the company going to do with the modules that get returned, clearly this will happen as customers look to upgrade some time down the road but within 10 years?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for September 16th, 2019
More Software Acquisitions. Congrats to the great team at Energy Toolbase for successfully getting acquired. On Friday afternoon, news broke that Pason Power was taking majority ownership of ETB to build out the next era of the software. I first met John a few years ago when someone told me there was a software startup in Florida working on solar and I didn’t quite believe it so I drove up to his office and recorded one of my first podcasts. They’ve come a long way and look forward to seeing what they do next!
PURPA Deal In Michigan. There’s been a pipeline of solar brewing in Michigan and last week the MPSC struck a deal with developers and Consumers Energy to open up that funnel. Starting in 2020 and through 2024, 584MW of solar will be connected. We’re a long way from the vision that former Governor Granholm had for Michigan as the solar leader in America but this is a step in the right direction.
No Deal In Louisiana. I can’t say that I am surprised that solar lost this fight and net metering is going to have to pay for lost revenues to the utilities. Maybe they will be paying EV owners for the extra energy they buy? This perpetuates the nonsense that southern States believe in free markets because this is just the monopoly man jumping into a gold-filled pool.
Wrong Headline. Bloomberg (is all about the paywall now) has an in-depth look at what caused the boom in the renewables markets and their answer is (wrong) capitalism. Before I get into my reasons for not buying it, let me say that I understand why they say it. Capitalism, i.e. the ability to make a profit from investing, plays a big role in the growth off the renewables market, mainly the ability for investors to develop, buy and hold long term physical assets with creditworthy revenue streams for decades. The flaw is that it wasn’t capitalism that created the opportunity or the growth. It was policy and regulators, i.e. politics. If it weren’t for Germany’s feed-in tariffs, those that followed and the RPS mandates in the US, capitalists would never have found the opportunities. This market is rooted in politics and it’s sad to see so many shirks the importance of the policies in their businesses.
Wind ITC Math Doesn’t Compute. I didn’t write this on Friday but I hated the headline about the Wind market being worried about the solar ITC being extended. It’s sad and flawed (if true). If solar ITC goes away, much like net metering going away, then the policies that drive the wind market will go away as well. This is a rising tides market, solar needs wind and wind needs solar. And both need the ITC/PTC, just ask our cousin, energy storage.
Infrastructure Argument. Look for more talk today about oil infrastructure as Trump releases strategic oil reserves after the oil attack in Saudi Arabia. I also would like to hear some talk about the diversity of power generation including distributed generation as a defensive strategy.
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Yann