This is your SolarWakeup for December 17th, 2019
Today We Will (Most Likely) Know. Sitting here into the wee hours of the morning hoping to be able to tell you what happened with the ITC in the tax extenders/spending bill and nothing is set yet. So you will have your update about the future of the ITC, most likely, at some point today. Solar is possibly in line for a single year extension of the 30% tax credit but could also be left out entirely. More to come…
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 16th, 2019
Trillion Dollar Opportunity. There’s been a shift in the financial world when it comes to what type of energy markets it is focused on. Goldman Sachs announced their renewed focus on the opportunity to finance the energy transition. The goal is to drive $750billion towards the energy transition with several markets as the core drivers, starting with clean energy.
No Deal, Big Dreams. The COP25 meeting left members without a deal to take home. In hopes to keep 2050 temperature rise below 1.5 degrees, strong policies were being debated. Without the US at the table, it was up to other nations to fill the leadership role. In reality it will rejuvenate when the US leadership is reinstitated in the future on the issue of climate change.
Settlement Rejected By Newsom. Governor Newsom, on Friday, rejected the $13.5billion wildfire settlement that PG&E announced a few weeks ago. This leaves a crucial step incomplete in the path to coming out of bankruptcy. The legislature has a June 2020 deadline for PG&E to fulfill many major accomplishments and it looks like there is a lack of forward momentum for the corporation. It leaves to wonder how much longer the shareholders will leave the current management in place while things get sorted.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 13th, 2019
The Abs Of California. What a cool day in solar! CALSSA hosted Governors Schwarzenegger and Brown as well as Senator Kevin Murray at a Clovis public school. A huge crowd welcomed speakers that spoke about getting the bill passed and into law before embarking on a decade that led to achieving 1 million solar roofs. Arnold did what politicians don’t, he asked for a goal so grand that he wouldn’t see the final success while still in office. That’s leadership and I thank him for thinking big. At the 57 minute mark he starts speaking about solar, the abs of California, which make up the core, the center of the State. Watch the whole event here.
Social Media Call To Action. Today at 12pm Eastern / 9am Pacific please post the following on Twitter or Facebook. Your voice is needed as the Congress heads into the last week before running out of money and running out of town. “ I’m calling on @HouseDemocrats and @SenateGOP to make a deal on #cleanenergy tax policy this year. We need to #DefendTheITC to reduce emissions, create American jobs, and support local communities. Learn more at seia.org/DefendTheITC “
Seeing The Future. In both Europe and many States in the US, policy makers are finding their path to 100% renewable energy and massive carbon emission reductions. We’re in an era of polarization that shows when Trump attacks Greta Thunberg for her activism on the issue but the reality is that voters are aligned that action is needed and desired by them. How to get to the goal will differ but one thing is certain, solar will lead inside the process with ideas, job creation, retraining and wealth creation.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 12th, 2019
Residential Solar Brings Data. According to the latest update from SEIA, in its Solar Market Insight report, residential solar is growing at a rate nobody predicted. Q3, the market for residential grew 45% year over year installing over 700MW. This kind of growth means that 15 States had the highest rate of installation in history. Don’t expect the growth to slow, this is a result of market wide maturity and cost reductions created by the ecosystem even in an era where modules are double the global market cost.
Urgency Drives Person of the Year. When Greta Thunberg started striking by herself on behalf of climate change, not much was expected by her or of her. A year later the urgency she has brought to the discussion has caused politicians around the world to deride and belittle her because she’s young or otherwise naive about the way it is supposed to be. Like all good businesses, Thunberg has a sense of urgency, the time for action is now and not everyone can handle that. Greta is the Time Person of the Year for 2019, and we all win.
New Leader In Loan Market. Wood Mackenzie has Loanpal going to the top of the solar loan market with a continued presence for third party structures. If you want to know how this happened, look at the above paragraph about sense of urgency.
New York Making Changes. Net metering is going to go through some changes in New York but not before a year extension of the current regulations. This way the solar market can get used to the changes that will likely be accepted in the near future.
Today Is The Day. Congratulations to all that installed solar in California in the past decade. You contributed to the 1 million solar roofs initiative that Arnold is celebrating with CALSSA today.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 11th, 2019
More Tomorrow. Travel means less time for columns. Make your calls to Congress and send me your news!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 10th, 2019
Fix The Link. Here is the correct link to celebrate solar with Arnold Schwarzenegger, Thursday at 1:30pm. Sorry for the error yesterday.
One Last ITC Push. SEIA is asking you to reach out to your member of Congress. This is the way to do it digitally or you can find your rep by clicking here. We have an opportunity to get an extension but you have to make a call today, not tomorrow or the day after. This is the time..
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Bloomberg Goes Global. The former mayor of New York City and Johns Hopkins alumni, Michael Bloomberg, is leading an event on climate change at the COP25 proceedings in Madrid before jetting to California to talk about policies he foresees helping the wild fires in the golden state. With additional TV ad buys, Bloomberg now has the most spend in the field of candidates on TV..
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Blackrock’s Investment Focus. A spokesperson for Blackrock gave an interesting quote on their new fund’s focus with regard to solar. Here’s what they mean when they say that they see opportunities in C&I and storage. As the fund looks to invest $2.5billion dollars, the portfolio managers will want the type of returns they are being told exist in C&I and energy storage (double digits, sometimes). They could invest the full fund quickly in solar farms yielding single digits, but that wouldn’t have the type of juice they are looking for. Quickly, they will find that deploying this scale of capital is going to be a challenge to do in the higher yielding parts of the market.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 9th, 2019
He’s Back, Come See Arnold Talk Solar. This Thursday the State of California is celebrating one of solar’s biggest accomplishments, 1 million solar roofs. At a public event, former Governor Schwarzenegger will be unveiling the 1 millionth roof alongside CALSSA’s Bernadette Del Chiaro. Solar in California has no political aisles, it benefits all and Governors from both parties have supported our industry. Clovis is in the Central Valley of the State and you’re invited to be there. We want to show Arnold that when he took a bet on solar many years ago, he was right. A few hours of your time is worth it, reporters in solar should be there as well! Here is the RSVP link
The Next Million. What does the next million look like? It will have plenty of power because CALSSA is announcing the next target of 1 million solar batteries. Wild fires, blackouts and rate schedule changes are causing more and more solar installations to get batteries. Nationally, batteries are attaching at a rate of 15-20% with some areas of California going much higher. That means that we are looking to grow the market to 2-4million solar roofs to get to the 1million solar batteries. If you’re doing the math, the goal is to get to over $10billion market potential for you, the installer or hardware provider. That’s a big audacious goal and we want you to help.
Another Banking Data Point. When the European Investment Bank stops lending to a particular lender, it has ripple effects to the private sector. Typically, banks like the EIB do the heavy lifting and take a particular risk and if they are out it means that other banks don’t follow. The focus is to align the strategy with the policy goals of the EU, in this case renewables. Look for capital to dry up for non-renewables relatively quickly.
Tackling Big Pollution. Making metals is energy intensive and contributes somewhere between 6-7% of the global carbon emissions. That is why a Missouri corporate deal for wind energy is an indicator that could have global implications. In Missouri, steel and aluminum producers get subsidized electricity prices which means that the wind deal was not only cleaner but also cheaper than the cheapest market electricity rate before.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 6th, 2019
A Trade Fight Day. The ITC (trade commission) held their mid-year review for the 201 tariffs to see if they should continue declining or otherwise. Suniva’s Matt Card, apparently still employed by the company, spoke on behalf of the tariffs without giving an update on Suniva’s return to the market. Hanwha Q-Cells also spoke publicly in favor of the 201 tariffs. SEIA, contractors and others spoke in favor of the American solar jobs that are impacted or lost because of the counterproductive tariffs. Meanwhile a court struck down the White House attempt to rescind the bifacial tariff exemption and Bloomberg interviewed Sunpower’s CEO on the topic of tariffs.
BP Gets In Deeper. BP has struck a deal to offer renewable energy from wind and solar farms for Amazon’s data centers in Europe. The deal also announced that BP increased their stake in Lightsource, the developer active in both European and US markets.
Corporate Storage Deal. Not that kind of deal. GM and LG Chem announced a JV to build a $2.3billion battery manufacturing plant in Ohio. In combination with the First Solar Youngstown plant, Ohio may want to revisit their anti-RPS stance given the manufacturing hub they’ve created in the state.
Speaking Of Storage. At GTM’s storage event in Denver, Colorado’s Governor showed up and spoke about his bullish position on energy storage and how it will help get Colorado to 100% renewable energy.
But The Workforce Needs. While we are all bullish on the growth of the market, we need to continue thinking about how we create a bigger labor force for our industry. Now that markets are getting geographically closer to the impacted coal markets, I wonder when installers start hiring labor that is trained in solar installations and travel to solar projects.
1 Million Solar Roofs. Speaking of amazing things, CALSSA will be having a big event next Thursday in Clovis, CA to commemorate 1 million solar roofs, an ambitious goal set during Governor Schwarzenegger’s time in Sacramento. The hallmark legislation sparked an industry that benefits us all and we’d love to have you in Clovis. If you can make it and travel there next Thursday, your support is needed and appreciated. More info to come including big names at the event.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 5th, 2019
Solar, Activate. Time for solar to get loud once again. We need you to make calls to Congress and ask for the ITC to be extended. Here is the call to action link. Please fill it out and ask your colleagues/employees to do the same. In the wake of the White House attack on each of you, we need to explain that we represent real American jobs.
CALSSA. Today is my first day on the job as a member of the board at CALSSA. As part of your support for what we do, please join as a member and make me look good. Hit reply to this email and ask me to get you in touch with the membership team. You can also do that right here.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for December 4th, 2019
The Tariff Effects. SEIA released a report showing that the solar tariffs have caused more than 62,000 job losses or missed growth. At least $19billion in private investment was lost while 10.5GW of solar was not installed. The harm hit the States that have the most borderline markets already that could have created job and business opportunities if US modules were priced at the same level as other markets globally.
Trump White House Claims ‘Fake News’. Navarro called SEIA “a loose confederation of Chinese solar companies seeking to destroy American solar manufacturing jobs and U.S. solar installers that want cheap Chinese panels and don’t care how many American jobs are destroyed by China’s heavily subsidized industry.”
SEIA’s Abby Hopper Responds. “We were heartened to hear the president talk today about his concern over climate change, and I think we are all in agreement that greater use of solar energy and a strong solar manufacturing presence is one way we can meet our collective goals of continuing American economic growth and addressing climate change in a meaningful way. We’d be thrilled if Mr. Navarro would come to one of our conferences and meet some of the 240,000 Americans who work in this great industry, including the tens of thousands of people who are manufacturing solar products. We look forward to working with the Trump administration on ways to advance real manufacturing growth without these particularly counterproductive tariffs.”
SolarWakeup Comments. The White House doesn’t have to like the report and can even rebut it. They could have easily countered by saying that solar is growing and new manufacturing has been built in the US thanks to their policy. Instead they go straight to the fake news and the kicker quote. SEIA is a lot of things and not perfect from my standpoint but diminishing the association to a “loose confederation” or “Chinese solar companies” that “don’t care about American jobs” is complete malarkey. Most of you reading this newsletter are members of SEIA and know that the jobs you create and you hold are cared about. I don’t care what party you come from, there should be robust condemnation of the Navarro comments.
A New Era Of Investment. Axios’s Dan Primack, whom I ran into at SFO yesterday, is out with a renewable energy article. This is news by itself given that he covers private equity in greater detail than any reporter. The TL:DR is capital is drying up for fossil fuel generation and a lot of the investment is going to go towards renewable energy. Of course we have to make sure the pipeline is robust enough for the capital to be interested. The further takeaway is that executives and board directors will have adjust their messaging and strategy going forward. Watch this space.
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Yann