This is your SolarWakeup for June 18th, 2020
The DG Power Plants. This week I interviewed the CEO of East Bay Community Energy, Nick Chaset, to talk about local resource adequacy and distributed virtual power plants. In the news yesterday was a duo of residential aggregated solar plus storage systems that make up a virtual power plant, both with Sunrun. The first with SCE in California and the other on the east coast. These projects are a three party arrangement between the installer/investor (Sunrun), the site host (homeowner) and the utility. In most cases, the management of the system is aligned between what is best for the homeowner and what the utility needs, though a divergence of benefits in that relationship would be interesting to play out. For the homeowner it is a version of revenue stacking, an additional benefit for installing a more expensive system. For the installer, it’s more revenue upfront, an ongoing management relationship and a complexity that will drive stickiness. For utilities, it’s demand response and lower infrastructure costs for the overall system. I like this space and can’t wait to see others play in it.
$16 Trillion. Goldman Sachs has a new report about the value of the renewables space and it does not disappoint. They are talking about an economic investment opportunity of $16 Trillion dollars between now and 2030. The firm annualizes the opportunity at $1 - $2 Trillion per year and job creation of up to 20 million over the next decade.
Cleantech Shark Tank. Let’s say it with great enthusiasm. Cleantech VC is cool again. I can only name two VCs that have been doing it since before I got into solar 15 years ago but I welcome all of the new participants. The convergence of folks that have done VC at the top of their game that now merge their work with climate based investing is incredibly exciting to me. So here’s how I want you to think about it, if you are a startup or know a startup, send them my way. I want to highlight and interview them so that the word spreads that our solar community has the next unicorn in it. Just look at the first two paragraphs and tell me that this isn’t possible!
Big Impact From Big EV Fleets. Lyft is promising 100% of their cars will be EVs by the end of the decade and a report comes out about California’s clean truck rule which will save billions. I promise you, if Joe Biden wins the election then I hope he appoints Mary Nichols as Secretary of Transportation.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 17th, 2020
2020 Solar Market. The past 10 weeks has put me on an emotional roller coaster as it pertains to the solar market. It was March 17th when shelter in place was announced in California and I texted an installer, next week you will have zero sales, what are you going to do? That was when I posted the first survey to see how many weeks solar would be at zero sales. Thankfully we never got to zero and now some installers are back above the sales numbers from early March. Non-residential installers also showed that this would be a blip and the survey for May will show the start of a split in solar. Those that are rebounding and those that couldn’t handle it. I’ll be covering the May results on a call tomorrow at 10am EST. RSVP for that call here free of charge.
May Survey. Did you fill out your response for May? Today is the last day. You can see the full results of previous surveys here
Not All Rebounds Are Same. PetersenDean has filed for bankruptcy protection according to PV-Magazine reporting and is only quoting roofing projects right now. It appears that the company will blame COVID for the woes but I expect more about this story to come out. There are many installers in far less profitable markets that are rebounding nicely and adapting to the virtual environment.
Get The Scale. First it was the cost of solar, then it was a lack of scale. Now pension funds not only see the returns they want, they also see the massive scale that makes deploying real dollars feasible including with great currency diversification for truly big funds. Danish fund, CIP, is targeting $15billion in investments.
What To Make Of BP? The company is writing down the value of some assets by a total of over $17billion dollars and is increasing the carbon cost for its investment planning to $100 per ton in 2030. That means that fossil projects will have to overcome significant additionality for projects that are not that far away in the world of a BP. The inverse is also true, renewable energy projects will become significantly better investments with such a carbon price included and you could see the company leveraging its development, land rights and offshore infrastructure for such projects.
Solar Plus Storage. Not for nothing but Vectren, the utility company HQed in Indiana is including 1GW of solar and storage in their IRP. I’m sure that Mike Pence will be lauding their foresight any minute now.
Presented by Adani Green Energy. Adani is a fully integrated renewables company, from solar cell and module manufacturing to ownership and operation. The company has a top global operating and contracted pipeline of over 14 GW. Adani is the recipient of the largest solar award ever of 8 GW, which includes a single site project of 2 GW - tied for the world's largest. No one knows mega-scale projects like Adani.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 16th, 2020
Solar Conference Call. My next call with Phil Shen from Roth Capital will cover market updates and current events and takes place on June 18th at 10am EST. You can RSVP for that call here free of charge.
May Survey. Did you fill out your response for May? You can see the full results of previous surveys here
SPI Planning Announced. Yesterday I asked the question about SPI and later in the day we got our answer. SPI will take place in Las Vegas in an outdoor exhibit at the Las Vegas Convention Center in October. SETS lists the precautions that will be put in place to make it a safe event for all to enjoy. Will you attend?
FERC Responses. Yesterday was the deadline for the docket that covers net metering. In reality the docket is an attempt to federalize basically all State level energy and rate regulations which has raised concerns from well known conservative State regulators as well as NARUC which tweeted out its comments to the docket. We shall see how this plays out.
Words Are Not Enough. GreenBiz’s Joel Makower makes a great point that I want to expand about. We’ve seen, over the past few weeks, comments from most companies are within a mold to attempt to be public but not actually make any news. Part of that comes from companies that wish they had actually done something before recent events made it clear that they are falling short. Some of you are thinking back and perhaps regretting past actions or looking around your board room and see a lack of diversity. Especially on past actions, there is no hiding from it, you have to decide how to manage your image because reporters are looking at how CEOs and executives have behaved because actions speak louder than words. Now that you have published a comment, write the comment that answers this question in 6 months. What have you done as a company since spring 2020 to bring about more diversity and equality in solar?
Presented by Adani Green Energy. Adani is a fully integrated renewables company, from solar cell and module manufacturing to ownership and operation. The company has a top global operating and contracted pipeline of over 14 GW. Adani is the recipient of the largest solar award ever of 8 GW, which includes a single site project of 2 GW - tied for the world's largest. No one knows mega-scale projects like Adani.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 15th, 2020
Drives And Podcasts. I have made it across the Country. If you were to do the drive as well, I recommend finding a different route than I-10 for 2,500 miles. I did see one big solar farm and a nuclear power plant but that ends the highlights. Thanks for the many listening recommendations and some of you asked for a list of those which I’ll put together on a list for you.
Market Updates. The next Roth conference call to cover the updates in the market will take place on June 18th at 10am EST. You can RSVP for that call here.
May Survey. Did you fill out your response for May? You can see the full results of previous surveys here
2020. No doubt that this year, at the start of the solar decade, is an expert level solar coaster. With another cliff of ITC at the end of the year, the pandemic is throwing major chaos into the gears that keep the market wheels moving. While the fundamentals are strong again, the solar industry is likely going to have major issues inside the policy shops. SPI is the single biggest funding source for SEIA and even if it isn’t canceled, it will be much smaller than anticipated and put a hole in the budget for this year and next. Much more discussion on this topic and how to make sure solar is well positioned going into the election and budget season.
Save Solar. FERC is still planning on reviewing the awful petition by NERA to dismantle net metering. You can sign up to send your letter in support of solar here.
Presented by Adani Green Energy. Adani is a fully integrated renewables company, from solar cell and module manufacturing to ownership and operation. The company has a top global operating and contracted pipeline of over 14 GW. Adani is the recipient of the largest solar award ever of 8 GW, which includes a single site project of 2 GW - tied for the world's largest. No one knows mega-scale projects like Adani.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 12th, 2020
Weekend. Thank you for the great feedback on what to listen to on my drive cross-country. Always a great reminder of the community that SolarWakeup has become. Tomorrow will take me through most of Texas! Here is your Friday rundown.
Q1 Reports. Solar did well in Q1 which was obviously hampered by coronavirus during March. Look for more detail in the story and check out the survey for your personal experiences.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 11th, 2020
May Survey. Did you fill out your response for May? You can see the full results of previous surveys here
Your Listening Recommendations. In a few hours I am starting my drive cross-country. In the next 45 hours, what should I listen to in podcast or video format? Send your episode recommendations to my inbox please
Solarize My House. I got plenty of feedback yesterday about my home system, I appreciate that. So here’s the follow up question. I have space for up to 40 panels on the roof, a transfer switch and pre-plumbed for a gas generator. Obviously I want solar but do I also want a generator and battery? Or just a generator? Keep in mind that we plan for up to two weeks of no power post-hurricane and it would be an interesting concept to maximize the gas in the tank with solar/battery/generator if such a complete system that self-managed were on the market. Send your product/design suggestions and I’ll answer any follow up questions here.
All Quiet In Energy News. If you haven’t seen it, you should know that mainstream media (i.e. non trade news) have almost eliminated clean energy and solar coverage over the past month. I know that other issues are more prominent but I also worry about layoffs and reassignments of energy writers. For example, Vox has published 1 article with the word solar in it over the past month. It is also important that you get your stories out there, if you can afford it, hire a PR rep. Feel free to ask me for recommendations if you’d like but we need everyone to be out there pitching.
Nuclear Boondoggles. In case you missed it, the Georgia nuclear plant will miss deadlines and budgets once again. Regulators are surprisingly still publicly supporting the ratepayers subsidizing poor corporate execution however.
WSJ Covers Energy Market. This summed up how the market is saying that renewables work, in a tweet thread by WSJ reporter Russell Gold.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 10th, 2020
May Survey. Transitioning to a monthly survey and looking at the entire month of May for the solar industry. This 3 minute survey will help educate those watching the market and help you see what else is going on in our industry. You can see the full results of previous surveys here and fill out your response for May here.
It’s More Than Cost. A new study published by UC Berkeley and Gridlab will be all the talk this week, mainly because the headline tells us what we want to hear. Achieving 90% renewables by 2035 will be cheaper than where we are today. Here are some things to consider that would strengthen and also render it more complicated. While it’s easy to take large scale solar RFP results and extrapolate, it will take an entire system of generation to make it work for the new way of consumption. EVs and home offices will change energy usage across the system. The study is very likely underestimating the speed and depth of cost declines for energy storage, both distributed and large scale.
Fight For Electrification. Electrification of everything is the trend of the decade and if any of you still use a gas stove, you’re missing out on the joys of induction. As I move to my home in Florida, where I designed for hurricane prep, I installed a full home transfer switch for a backup system and a large gas tank to power the likely generator. The only other item I use the gas for is the instant hot water heater because 80A draw for an electric instant hot wasn’t in the cards. I’ll be back with you for advice on solar/batter/generator design and product selection soon. What do you use gas for?
Holding CA On Aliso. Speaking of gas, Governor Newsom wanted Aliso Canyon’s usage to come to a halt but since the environmental disaster a few years ago, the site is producing more than before. It may have faded into the background but activists should hold the Governor on his promise.
Presented by Adani Green Energy. Adani is a fully integrated renewables company, from solar cell and module manufacturing to ownership and operation. The company has a top global operating and contracted pipeline of over 14 GW. Adani is the recipient of the largest solar award ever of 8 GW, which includes a single site project of 2 GW - tied for the world's largest. No one knows mega-scale projects like Adani.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 9th, 2020
May Survey. Transitioning to a monthly survey and looking at the entire month of May for the solar industry. This 3 minute survey will help educate those watching the market and help you see what else is going on in our industry. You can see the full results of previous surveys here and fill out your response for May here.
Virtual Trade Shows And Conferences. I’ve been in solar for 15 years and I still love going to solar conferences and trade shows. Seeing new companies making their move, showing new products and most of all the reconnection with many of you. I had the pleasure of touring the virtual trade show environment that the Midwest Solar Expo will be using in a few weeks. In the video playback, you can see how you can tour the facilities, hear speakers, meet with exhibitors and have random encounters with other attendees. It’s not going to replace the in person events but it sure does a big job improving on a webinar.
Political Opportunity. Clean energy, climate change and fossil fuels are key issues that also have a big grey area. That grey area is the undecided voter segment that doesn’t know which party is better at handling that issue. Some would see that the issues also skew heavily democratic which presents an opportunity for Biden but on the other hand turns the issue into partisan topics. Partisanship in solar has been a frustrating reality given that the solar industry has gone out of its way to be bipartisan and has shown benefits to red and blue states alike.
Presented by Adani Green Energy. Adani is a fully integrated renewables company, from solar cell and module manufacturing to ownership and operation. The company has a top global operating and contracted pipeline of over 14 GW. Adani is the recipient of the largest solar award ever of 8 GW, which includes a single site project of 2 GW - tied for the world's largest. No one knows mega-scale projects like Adani.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 8th, 2020
Emergency Powers. Presidential powers through emergency declaration can be powerful, Trump has tested these limits including reallocating defense department funding for these declarations. Last week, under this presidential power, the White House removed a tranche of environmental reviews for infrastructure work that was required to make up from the economic woes caused by the pandemic. Climate change is an emergency of the highest degree, something that this White House will not pursue but something for us to think about going forward.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for June 5th, 2020
Our Industry. This week has been challenging for many, clearly more for others than for me. As a father of three young kids, I have struggled to explain what is happening and the privilege they are benefitting from when I have to take inventory of it for myself. So I have looked at you, the readers, and industry spokespersons for guidance and leadership and I’ve been happy to listen. That being said, we are at a stage of words and actions must follow. It has also been confirmed that the voices I am hearing from and reading statements from, lack diversity to say the least. We’ve all been to the trade shows and conferences and it’s not representative of America’s diversity. Solar needs to do better and I am optimistic that it will do so, I am proud however that our advocacy always includes activism for diversity and justice. If you didn’t catch Vote Solar’s statement this week, it more eloquently states what I am feeling.
The Platform. On Monday I offered this platform, which is read by most of solar, to readers that have a better perspective on racism, profiling and police brutality than I. Over the next 24 hours, I didn’t receive a single post to publish from readership and I know that is indicative of who I am reaching. I have always wanted SolarWakeup to be a platform that shares it’s reach with the readers, to expand the viewpoints and lived experiences but that requires that I expand the folks that I am reaching.
Germany Will Do It Again. When it comes to scaling solar, Germany was way ahead of the entire world. Now, post-COVID, Germany is expanding subsidies for electric vehicle adopters to ~$6,700 and a reduction of 3% from the sales tax paid. This will increase the total units sold in Germany and lower the cost for the rest of the world. While the US and other Countries have been ahead on this, it is also significant given the German heritage in auto manufacturing. I find EV adoption relevant for solar from two perspectives. First, it increases the total consumption of electricity especially for consumers that think about what type of fuel is powering their car. Second, the batteries used in the cars are also used in our homes, buildings and solar farms. Lowering that cost will pay dividends in our sector for a long time to come.
Forget Societal Benefits. Trump is taking this time to make it easier to build infrastructure without environmental review. These reviews are an obstacle for solar development at times as well but you can’t take a step forward while taking two steps back. It would be best to slow the development of fossil infrastructure knowing that it will be without use a decade from now.
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Yann