This is your SolarWakeup for July 27th, 2020
Take The Survey. SolarWakeup is hosting a survey on the current state of solar and the expectations for the rest of the year. 5 questions in 3 minutes. Survey closes at the end of today.
Hear The Results. Tomorrow morning, I’ll be joining Phil Shen from Roth Capital to talk about the results and a Q&A on the current state of the market. You can register for that call here.
7 For The Majority. A group of GOP senators wrote to the Majority Leader requesting the extension of clean energy tax benefits in the next stimulus bill. The list includes Senator Graham, who routinely plays golf with Trump. It also has at-risk Senators from Colorado, Arizona and Maine. Politically, Graham alone could make this a priority and get it done. The Majority Leader could also choose to help the senators in a tough political battle, we all know that solar polls well on both sides. Reminder, take action when you get those emails from your trade groups.
De-lobby The Monopoly. Last week we saw the indictment regarding HB 6, the coal and nuclear bailout bill, and the $61million bribe it took to get the billion subsidy passed. At first the governor said he didn’t want it to repeal it but later reversed course. Over the weekend, it also came out that First Energy was not alone in their involvement. Documents outlined by the Energy and Policy Institute show that AEP also got involved to the potential tune of $13million. This money apparently went to a dark money group that was involved.
Hook’em Ohms. Elon is bringing the cybertruck to Austin along with the 5,000 jobs that the factory will create. A big win for Texas and creates for interesting politics around clean energy for a state that politically has not been known for politics on the issue. That being said, Texas is one of the fastest growing solar markets for residential and utility scale and SpaceX has operations not too far from Austin.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 24th, 2020
SolarWakeup Q3 Survey. A quick 5 question survey to check in on your solar business. How is Q3 and Q4 shaping up for your company? Survey closes on Monday.
Solar Market Conference Call. On Tuesday, I’ll be joined with other solar professionals to talk about the current state of solar. You can register (free) for the zoom call here.
The California Solar Jobs. California has a great opportunity which will not cost anything to build back jobs in solar with a simple legislative fix that the Governor can lead on. By implementing instant permitting across all municipalities, the Governor takes charge and helps create even more jobs in the State.
Earnings Calls Coming. With Tesla’s earnings behind us, we’ve got the other companies coming up. Those earnings calls should get us back to proper forecasting for the rest of the year and an understanding of the impact COVID had in Q2. One thing I’m watching is where factories are being set up. Seems that solar companies are closing US factories this year under the cover of COVID, more to come.
Corporate Procurement. It’s been a week for corporate action in solar, can’t wait for someone to figure out how to bring in smaller private companies into the market.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 23rd, 2020
Bailing Out Coal And Nuclear. Taking a step back from the crime committed in Ohio to analyze what it means for the energy industry. HB6 had three primary components, bail out nuclear power plants, bail out coal plants and kill the renewable portfolio standard. All of this to primarily benefit one regulated, incumbent monopoly. Ohio is a conservative State where national image plays a role so you would think that supporting nuclear and especially coal would be a positive for legislators. In this case, the monopoly had to resort to bribing the Speaker of the House to pass a bill to allow them to get what they want. This either means that clean energy/climate advocates had enough power to stop the bill if not for bribes or legislators realize that the $60million means nothing to a utility that gets to pass their costs on to ratepayers. If you believe that the second is true, that the House speaker viewed utility regulations as a quasi-slush fund, then what makes you think this is unique to Ohio?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 22nd, 2020
Monopolies, Lobbying, Bribery and Indictments. The only major RPS to be eliminated happened in Ohio at the same time that the legislature bailed out coal in a nuclear bailout bill to the tune of $1.3billion. Ratepayers footed that bill and were sold a bill of goods by legislators and yesterday the FBI told us the other side of that legislative story. In an elaborate pay to play scheme with the Speaker of the House at the center, utilities are accused of bribing legislators for their support. The indictment is long and detailed and if you want to read the analysis, I recommend you read the twitter timeline from David Pomerantz. Meanwhile, the bill (HB6) remains law. Talk about bank robbers getting to keep the loot.
For Perspective. Solar companies closed down and people lost their jobs when HB6 was signed by the Governor of Ohio. That’s before ratepayers bailed out monopolies that are guaranteed a profit for power plants that are not financially viable. When legislators told us that the market will decide and we can’t pick winners and losers what they were trying to say is that solar can’t play with the big boys in the political arena. The regulatory capture for incumbents is real and I’m glad that the FBI investigated this case in detail.
Offtaker Before Development. In other news, that I view as one of the bigger game changers in the industry, Microsoft entered into an agreement with Sol Systems. The agreement calls for Sol Systems to develop, finance and operate 500MW and Microsoft will serve as the off taker. Great for corporate solar but even bigger for changing how solar development is done. By securing the off taker first, all of the development cost getting to that point is cheaper, faster and more confident. This is how every project should be developed going forward and until then, Sol Systems will have a huge advantage in the process.
New York Goes Big. The State, through NYPA and NYSERDA, launched a 4GW renewables procurement with 1.5GW coming from land based generation and 2.5GW from offshore wind. Big users should do big deals.
McConnell Drops The Ball. Corporates announced their support for the ITC extension with cash grant yesterday at the same time that McConnell downplayed any major inclusion of job creating policies in the next stimulus. I imagine that most solar companies would prefer an ITC extension than more PPP funds.
Biden Talks Climate. For a contribution of $100 or more you can join in an online discussion with the VP and the Veep. Joe Biden is joined by Julia Louis-Dreyfus on Thursday at 4:45pm, RSVP is due later today.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 20th, 2020
John Lewis And Environmental Justice. I read the news of John Lewis’s passing with sadness. He’s been an example of leading by action while also working within the congressional process. As it pertains to work we participate in, Lewis often included references to environmental justice, clean air and water in his speeches. Our industry is more than just generating electricity fueled by the son, we have a greater responsibility to cast benefits far and wide.
SolarAPP Moves Forward. Rocky Mountain Institute is deeply involved in the SolarAPP launch and is updating their view of the endeavor. For those of you unfamiliar with SolarAPP, it is a project led by NREL and others to create fast track and instant permitting for solar. As installers and users of permitting systems, your involvement is starting to be more crucial. First you will want to educate yourself on the project. Second, installers will be asked to identify and lobby AHJs to get involved as pilot participants or adopters of the system. Instant permitting is one of the best tools we can use to move the industry forward, cutting the speed from contract to install in half and savings thousands of dollars in the process.
Virtual World Designs! Here’s the latest from our friends at OpenSolar, the free sales software we discussed in the interview with Birchy, it's co-founder. We talked then about the digital toolkit and how it supports inside sales and customer management online - now, today they launched their next generation design tool, OpenSolar 3D - the short video clip here has a nice overview (excuse the pun). Pretty cool technology flying around your customers roof live with them online, placing panels with pitch, azimuth and shading all automated in what they describe as an "immersive customer facing experience”. I know Birchy’s answer to yesterday’s question of “how do we scale 100% by 2035”: design and close your leads efficiently in a virtual, online customer experience with no site visit (COVID or not), then click a button to auto-populate SolarAPP to receive your digital permit, then and only then do you invest your money in driving a truck - and that’s to complete the install! Seems OpenSolar’s mission is to make that a reality for all installers, no matter the size (interesting given the Sunrun-Vivint news) - and deliver that for free. Good to see bold moves and innovation across the space. What else do you think changes the game on 100% by 2035?
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 17th, 2020
Happy Friday. I hope you all have a nice weekend and perhaps get to spend some time getting away in the near future. In the meantime, post a nice comment about SolarWakeup on your LinkedIn and tell your network where you get your news in the morning. Here is your rundown.
Good News FERC. The NERA filing that threatened net metering and the federalization of state regulations was dismissed by FERC yesterday. Utilities will have to continue making their case for monopoly power at the state level.
Not All Roses. FERC also ruled on a redefinition of PURPA around how states can adjust contracts. It also lowers the standard for challenging the qualifying facility status. Reception online was tepid to angry, more analysis to come.
SMUD Tries Too Hard. I like the idea of SMUD wanting to go carbon neutral by 2030 but let’s look at the track record. SMUD, on more than one occasion, has come for solar net metering and tried to minimize that market. Lately, SMUD looked to kill the new home solar mandate. The large muni has the opportunity to be a national leader with solar, I hope they recognize that.
Next Week. The launch of SolarWakeup 3.0 is about ready to be announced and I thank you all for your guidance and help along the way. My goal is to fundamentally change the power dynamic in the industry to those that get more customers to go solar.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 16th, 2020
Checking In On Solar. Making it a quick rundown today, lots of interesting news to catch up on. Reuters does a trans-atlantic review of rooftop solar. SolarWakeup readers will catch that analysts have not adjusted their 2020 forecast which was brought to 30% down from 2019 when Corona started. We’ll be up in 2020, as I’ve said before.
Digging For C&I Gold. With their unique way of financing C&I solar, Wunder now has more dry powder behind them with a $100million capital raise. Congrats to the team that is looking to solve this large and untapped market.
Hedge The Gas Bridge. Natural gas is a bridge for marketing purposes only. In reality most of the gas utilities also want to repower with renewables as long as they can rate-base that change. One way to do it is to get regulators to start including the cost, or equivalent of, a hedge to guarantee the 30year fuel cost estimates for those power plants. That hedge is expensive if impossible to get, and ratepayers currently provide it for free.
V2G Has My Attention. Vehicle to grid technology is fresh and in the very early stages. I can’t wait to see how it works and how the market creates revenue streams. It’s going to be like uber for utilities except I don’t have to drive anyone, just let the utility take electricity from my car.
Vote To Make Impact. BlackRock takes its climate voice into the board room and proxy votes. 53 is a good start, I look forward to seeing it at 5,300.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs. Studies are out that there are almost 1 million jobs available in the clean energy industry with targeted stimulus in the next package. Congress should see that there is great value for growth right here.
New Pod On Midwest Solar. I talk with TJ Kanczuzewski, the CEO of Inovateus Solar, about his company’s recently released sustainability report. Both how sustainability impacts their customers demand for solar and how they recently installed a solar farm with zero waste. Catch it on your favorite podcast app.
Event Today. Clean Energy for Biden is hosting a discussion on the Clean Power Plan with the plans policy advisors. There are some great events coming up that are focused on the policy and how it can be implemented.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 15th, 2020
$2 Trillion Man. As expected, Joe Biden announced a $2 trillion plan green infrastructure plan. The plan centers around two fundamental truths, we can create a generation of great jobs while also achieving 100% clean energy by 2035. With less than 100 days to the election, I can’t emphasize enough how feasible this plan is. Both to get this done legislatively and have the leadership to push this as a must have for future generations. As I mentioned, my oldest turned 10 yesterday and I spent a good part of the day thinking about the future and the year 2035 kept coming up in my mind. 2035 is the year my oldest goes to college and 2020 is the year that Columbia opens its climate school. That being said, my kids know that they are bound to Hopkins.
The Tech Is Already Here. One of the realities with a 2035 plan is that we already know how to execute it and the costs already near competitiveness across the board. We need to scale up some of the manufacturing but otherwise the industry is ready to act. Where this falls short is regulatory leeway. Whether it means approvals for projects, allowing companies to enter into competitive agreements for energy or instant permitting for residential solar, the regulations still prioritize incumbent monopolies.
Location, Location, Location. The concept of buying the land around coal plants makes all the sense in the world if only for the proximity to the substation and transmission. Much like the PG&E project at Moss Landing, California, where the coal plant building is being retrofitted with massive banks of batteries. Why not just buy the coal plant instead?
Biden Talks Transmission. In a Clean Energy event with Biden which raised over $1 million for the campaign the Vice President brought up his focus on transmission not once but twice. It reminds me of when Senator Warren got into a policy discussion about net metering, this time with the VP wanting to get serious about reducing the barriers of implementation for cleaner generation.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 14th, 2020
Happy Birthday. Today is my oldest child's 10th birthday. That seems insane to me but in the hopes he one day comes back and reads every newsletter, happy birthday E! Not to worry, we'll be at 100% clean energy by the time you graduate college.
Talking To Congress. This week 650 companies in the solar industry made their voice heard in Congress. This is a bipartisan call for action on policies like refund ability of the ITC, inclusion of storage and more. Over the past 3 months the solar industry has shown its resilience, not only in bouncing back with jobs and market but also with public company performance. Public solar companies have done better than other companies. The industry is also there to pull the rest of the economy up with it as we expand.
A Big Announcement. Reporting from Bloomberg has it that Joe Biden will announce his plan to build back the economy later today which will include a call for 100% clean energy by 2035. That’s 14 years away and quite the initiative, one I support for financial, moral and environmental reasons. The saying goes, if we’re right about climate change we will have done something about it but if we’re wrong about climate change we will have created jobs and economic growth. There is no downside to actually implementing this and a clear distinction of the political race we’re in.
A Decade Of Action. I want you to think about what it means to get to 100% and the steps you have to undertake in order for us to achieve that. It won’t be easy but it is readily achievable. It sure that we will need more of everything but like all things that solar undertakes we have to also figure out how to do it better. That’s why tonight the latest SolarWakeup podcast talks about sustainability inside solar companies. I talk with TJ Kanczuzewski from Inovateus. They recently published their sustainability report and talk about zero waste construction for their EPC projects. We need more solar but unlike the oil and gas wells that are left behind creating environmental disasters, solar will do better.
Industrial Electrification. What would a truck look like that has a battery in the bed of it that goes to a construction site and charges electric caterpillar machinery? Seriously, I have no idea of the scale of the truck it takes to achieve that. Today, trucks carrying diesel go to the sites but if we electrify machinery that truck gets replaced by something else. Maybe utilities will have mobile stations that get connected to temporary power instead but for the electrical engineer readers, I’m interested to learn.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for July 13th, 2020
EVs In Focus. Rivian has raised another $2.5billion. What is now becoming clear to me is that the existing OEMs are not able to get real on EVs. They have the teams, money and facilities but can’t get around to making EVs that actually do what they are supposed to, cannibalize their existing market. Tesla will be joined by Rivian and then another but until salespeople, dealers and designers see the benefits of change, they will resist it.
Effective Load Capacity. Twitter has the best headlines buried in it and I hope that reporters will take this one on. California utilities have studied the effective load carrying capacity (ELCC) of various forms of renewables, names solar, solar with 4 hours of storage, wind and wind with 4 hours. You’ll have to read the filing to get the full definition of ELCC but it is as it seems, how effective at providing electricity is each source when the grid needs it. Here’s the headline, tracking PV is 6.9% when judged as an as-available resource. Add 4 hours of storage to it and it jumps to 99.8%. This remains true even in 2030 when the ELCC for solar hybrid is still 93.2%. Let’s reevaluate the race to the bottom on energy cost and get projects built that monetize the value of the assets.
500 Million Solar Panels. Part of the Biden-Sanders plan brings back an idea from Clinton in 2016, 500 million solar panels. In my podcast from a few weeks ago with John Farrell, we talked about his plan for 30 million solar roofs and it’s similar to a memo I wrote a year ago pushing for no more naked roofs, i.e. solar on every rooftop. Biden’s plan is clear, we’re going to do more solar. Industry folks will push for a different metric but people understand solar panels more than they understand watts or kWhs. If you could write the plan for the Biden campaign, what are the bullet points?
Are Modules Fungible? Rinse and reuse as they say. The SolarWorld factory in Oregon was acquired by SunPower and now the factory in Germany is taken over by Meyer Burger. Meyer was historically a provider of factory solutions to OEMs looking to manufacture. Now they feel that their solution is fine branded under their own flag. So I ask you to think about this, what is the value of the label on the module? I’m not talking about quality or materials used, but the label itself. Residential solar modules range from modules in the 30s per watt to over $1. Brand names and names only solar pros know, silver on white and black on black. Is this fungible or drive a homeowner to make a decision one way or another.
Mobile But Stationary. Here is the corrected link for the podcast with Orison CEO, Eric Clifton. Orison is the storage company that makes storage for your home but plugs into your outlet. Podcast link for Apple and Spotify
Trivia Answer. Last week I asked who the largest pure play installer was now that Sunrun is acquiring Vivint Solar. Of course SunPower and Tesla follow Sunrun but they aren’t only installers. The answer is Trinity Solar out of New Jersey.
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Yann