This is your SolarWakeup for November 4th, 2020
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 3rd, 2020
Election Day Changeup, A Deep Dive. It’s election day, so let’s skip the solar talk. We’ll get back to the regularly scheduled programming tomorrow. As you know, I am back to living in my home state of Florida. I’ve lived here for the better part of 30 years, run for office here, lobbied in Tallahassee and generally been close to the politics. Florida was not always great at elections, but now the State and it’s 67 supervisors of elections do a good job managing early voting (thank you Governor Crist) and getting the total early tabulations out very quickly. This means that at when polls close (most at 7pm, except for the central time zone counties in the Panhandle), the early voting results are released online. Some results will be available well before 8pm eastern. Florida is the gateway to the White House, it creates or eliminates paths to 270 for both parties. Suffice it to say, anything can happen here and while you can’t call the general election based on Florida’s results it will give you major indication. This is what I am looking at on election night, you can join my group therapy by following me on twitter @yannbrandt
Sumter County, America’s Village. In 2000, Tim Russert famously said, “Florida, Florida, Florida.” For me, it’s “Seniors, seniors, seniors” this year. No better place to watch this retired, golf cart demographic vote than in Sumter County. You have to be 55 to live in the Villages and the most sacred thing besides the golf cart is your golf game. Politics and Trump has caused foursomes to split up and end friendships. 83 thousand have already voted, almost 10% more than in all of 2016. So, early tonight, you will get the Sumter data dump and see if the seniors, largely white, are sticking by Trump. Trump won this County by 39% in 2016 and Rick Scott by a few points more. If Trump comes in under 63% with higher turnout, it’s going to be a long night for Trump. The shy Biden voter may make an appearance in the vote tally.
Duval, Not Just Jaguars. It’s been 40 years since a democratic contender for President has won this County which includes Jacksonville. Today, that changes, Clinton missed out on this by just 1.4%. It’s expected that Biden takes it by a point but insiders think that the electorate is quietly changing, like the addition of Jinko’s module plant which sits here, and could expand the lead to north of 3%. Duval has 664k registered voters and the early vote is already at 92% of 2016.
Seminole, The Orlando Expansion. To the Northeast of Orlando sits Seminole County, a growing suburb of the region. It was a nearly 50/50 County in 2016, just 3500 votes separate Clinton from Trump. A State Senate race has my attention here, a 4 term, popular state house member is running for the state senate seat and polling has him down by 8 points. If that’s true, it could be an early I-4 indicator of the Puerto Rican vote.
Pinellas, Follow The Governor. St Petersburg is the gulf front town turning into a city across the bay from Tampa. It is represented by former Governor Crist, a real solar champion, who won that race by a few points last election. His latest polling has him up by 17 points, so let’s give that a haircut because it sounds too good. Trump won this County by 1.1% so you can imagine the possibility of a major take back of votes in this growing area.
Broward, Because It’s My Home. Broward has registered more early votes than the total turnout in 2016. This is the most democratic County in Florida and a big turnout is a great sign, especially with the soft polling Biden has seen with the Cuban vote in Miami. Broward voters also include 347k NPAs (no party affiliation) that could signal a major independent shift towards Biden. There’s a reason that Obama, Biden and Harris have been camping out in town, they know winning Broward by more than 350k votes could be the ballgame.
We Ain’t Got Mountains. The reason we’re all skeptical about Florida polling is that Florida has no mountains, cliffs or even hills, therefore landslides don’t exist. We’re looking for a point off the senior vote, an extra point from NPAs and bigger turnout from dems. That happens, Biden wins Florida. Rick Scott won by 10,000 votes and he’s the junior Senator. The Sunshine State is here for your entertainment and tomorrow, we shall not disappoint. In the meantime, I’m here for you because if it’s 7am eastern, it’s time for SolarWakeup. Go Vote and conquer!
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for November 2nd, 2020
Tomorrow. Like many of you, it’s been a stressful and anxious time. Tomorrow is not the end but a marker in time when you get to have you say if you haven’t voted yet. Whether or not there is a result before we talk on Wednesday, make sure you have a plan to vote or help someone that hasn’t yet. No-one knows what is going to happen and every vote matters. iwillvote.com to access resources for you.
Let’s Talk 100 Days. I’ll have some notes tomorrow about ideas for first 100 days. Many of you chimed in, but I’d love to get more ideas from the readers. The question is: What would you pitch/ask for if you had 5 minutes with Biden/Schumer/Pelosi to advance solar/clean energy?
Because He Got Caught. FirstEnergy fired its CEO and a few executives for bribing the Ohio House Speaker to get a nuclear bailout/RPS kill bill. Let me correct that statement, FirstEnergy fired its chief executive because he got caught, not because the bribe actually happened.
Mary Nichols For Many Things. Mary Nichols would be a phenomenal EPA administrator, she would also be a great secretary of transportation. Regardless of title, I very much hope to see Mary Nichols leading a very relevant agency in DC.
PG&E Flashbacks. A utility watchdog wants the utility fined for shutting off power without adequate notice but the bigger story came from PG&E directly. They are letting its shareholders know that it could be held liable for a recent fire.
Educational Materials. I’m being asked by my kids’ teachers to talk about solar and I’m asking you to help. I need a ‘what is solar’ presentation for 3rd and 5th grades that won’t bore the kids while also making my kids think that their dad is the coolest (focus is on the latter). Who’s got what I’m looking for?
Q1 Supply Challenge. While 2020 definitely had its challenges, solar not only bounced back but has been increasing backlog since April. Manufacturers, based on new expectations, lowered their forecasts and inventory levels are very low. Make sure you control your product flow, look at what you need and when you need it. If you need a check on supply and where the market is for pricing, reach out to SolarWakeup’s Buyer Group. Not only are we lowering your costs, but we’re giving you big insights. You can get some price discovery or other products on our members page.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 30th, 2020
What’s Your Plan? This is where we are, in one way or another you or the company you work for has been building something great for years, maybe even more than 10 years. Solar is both big and valuable, valuable thanks to newly found profits and future growth promise. The same European private equity firm that acquired my former business is acquiring Panelclaw according to PV-Magazine. It couldn’t have happened to a better group of people, if you know the leaders of Panelclaw, you know that they’ve been busting their rear end with the highest level of character while making and inventing some great products. What is your plan for the next phase of your business? You should be thinking about that right now, knowing how you feel about various paths is key to managing the 2020 solar decade.
Weekend Roundup. Here are your quick tips for the weekend reading. Two things to keep your eyes on that hasn’t been published in publications yet. Arizona is set to enact a sweeping clean energy standard including 50% by 2032 with focus on storage as well. Flex LTD, the parent of Nextracker, reported earnings yesterday and most of the questions in the analyst call were solar related, a new topic for the company’s analysts. Enphase and SolarEdge also use Flex for contract manufacturing.
What Will Biden Do? Go to my LinkedIn and tell me what you would pitch if given 5 minutes.
Give Me A Fracking Break. Fracking is 26,000 jobs in Pennsylvania. Don’t underestimate fracking’s PR capabilities. Solar in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky and West Virginia is the way to get long forgotten workers back to work without threatening their health. Axios needs to do better.
Solar From Home. Work from home workers are greening their homes with greater interest than ever before. This isn’t a temporary phenomenon.
The Buyer’s Group Grows. We’re into our second month at the Buyer’s Group and we’ve added another top supplier to the product portfolio. REC modules are now available at an amazing pre-negotiated rate for buyer’s group members. Both Alpha and N-Peak products are on the list. You can get some price discovery for REC or other products on our members page.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 29th, 2020
Sea Of Green, 950 Below. Yesterday was not a great day for stocks, market closing down 950 points and the VIX reaching near April levels. Except for solar companies trading in the public markets. At the start of the day Generac joined Enphase and First Solar to publish their Q3 earnings since the close on the previous day. The positive numbers, beating estimates and highlighting growth ahead which pushed almost every solar stock upward.
Beyond Stock Prices. Stock valuations are not everything but they do tell a story about sentiment and future growth analysis. This positive view on the ability to perform is a signal that the market is demanding more opportunities to invest. More importantly, it means that more private companies are going to reach for the markets for exits or liquidity event. Over the next few months you’ll see acquisitions by private equity, SPACs and new IPO announcements. Not all deals will be met with positive commentary, at least on this platform, but they are becoming increasingly obvious. If you’re involved in any of those transactions, feel free to give me the heads up.
Earnings Slides. Generac, Sunnova, SunPower
Today’s Earnings.
Another Public Tracker. Following the ridiculous performance in and following the Array Technologies IPO, Soltec went public in the Spanish stock exchange. According to estimates by Wood Mackenzie, Soltec is a top 3 supplier of tracking equipment in the European market alongside the US based competitor Nextracker, which until now remains a subsidiary of Flextronics (reporting later today).
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 28th, 2020
Earnings Season Is Here. First Solar had strong earnings last quarter and the stock jumped after hours by over 10%. This comes on the heels of the analyst upgrade by Roth Capital. I’ll let PV-Magazine give you the breakdown of that earnings report because I spent time listening to what happened on the Enphase call. Today, we start with Generac earnings pre-market and SunPower and Sunnova reporting after market close. This will be SunPower’s inaugural report without the module business. Sunnova announced this week the addition of a former FERC commissioner to their board of directors and I expect lots of grid service talk on that call.
Enphase Reports. Before we talk about the dollars, I want to highlight the R&D excitement that often comes out on the Enphase calls. Badri, CEO of Enphase, broke script and gave some highlights of the IQ9 which will follow the IQ8 into the market, which isn’t shipping quite yet. The company hired 140+ engineers last quarter to focus on R&D. The company outperformed expectations in Q3, with $60million in free cash flow and improving international revenue by nearly 50%, making up 22% of the total revenue. Margins also exceeded forecasts. This is on the strength of their supply chain higher than their 8-10 week target inventory levels. I.e. a lot of product is hard to find right now but they are working on it. September had a 49% increase over June, the rebound you wanted to hear in this earnings call regarding the COVID situation and in line with what we’ve seen in finance documents and SolarWakeup market surveys. Some fun quotes from the call. A123 Systems was the supplier of batteries for the Encharge system (they are adding others), which also sounds sold out in Q4. A123 was the US based battery maker that went under and patents were acquired by Chinese investors.
Only $11 Trillion. BNEF is forecast the capital needed for the energy transition based on their energy outlook. That number is an $11 Trillion opportunity over the next 30 years and here’s the operator’s caveat. Uber was misvalued by early investors because they viewed the taxi market as too small to disrupt but now Uber’s revenue is multiples higher than that original market opportunity. Clean energy will also be multiples higher than this because the enterprise around the conversion of brown kWh to clean kWh will present market segments well beyond the replacement. Kara Swisher has bene saying for a year that the world’s first trillionaire will come from the fight against climate change.
CO Now OC. Thoughts are with our readers in Southern California, specifically Irvine area that are dealing with their wild fires and horribly strong winds.
Insider Blog Of The Day. Obama’s former senior advisor and communications direction, Dan Pfeiffer, writes about the oil gaffe or gift from Biden’s last debate. Dan is the highest level of politics, outside of our echo chamber, so it’s worthwhile to read his thoughts on this.
The Buyer’s Group Grows. We’re into our second month at the Buyer’s Group and we’ve added another top supplier to the product portfolio. REC modules are now available at an amazing pre-negotiated rate for buyer’s group members. Both Alpha and N-Peak products are on the list. You can get some price discovery for REC or other products on our members page.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 27th, 2020
The Public Equity SPACs. I have spoken to several SPAC executives over the past few weeks that are actively looking for investments in the clean tech space. There have been several announcements recently in the broader market but none that close to home yet but I don’t expect that to last for long. With great success in the Array Technologies IPO, the way solar has performed in the public markets, and an energy transition well on its way, the only thing missing is finding companies large enough to fit the mold.
The Private Equity Investments. Imitation is the best form of flattery and investments are like the heat seeking missiles of imitation. Exits are that target, so whether you look at the Blackstone liquidity event from Vivint Solar, Oaktree’s with Array, or Tiger’s with Sunrun amongst many others, capital is seeking new ways to get equity participation in our space. All of that is positive but solar still has an early stage issue, getting investments big enough to get to the dreaded “check size” that PE firms always highlight. That is the metric to watch in 2021, how much startup momentum gets funded in the solar and storage industries.
A Look At Home Monitoring. Sense is a Boston based startup that measures home energy consumption that has raised $47million. The reality is that the market hasn’t quite adopted this or any other energy monitoring technology in a big way. While it would make sense for home owners to have both sides of the energy equation on their phone, you have to wonder how to do this so that more solar installers adopt the concept.
Why Bury Reports? Grist alongside an investigate reporting outlet says that the Department of Energy has been withholding the publication of over a dozen reports that show renewable energy in positive light.
A Sustainable Pallet. Wood pallets are a costly and wasteful part of solar logistics, they tend to be one directional, fragile and inefficient. So let’s highlight the PVPallet, a reusable pallet that appears to also improve the ability for modules to withstand the rigors of logistics and warehousing, particularly with partial pallets. Going forward, my hope is to highlight some startups to get them attention from you all and maybe even drive growth and capital their way.
The Buyer’s Group Grows. We’re into our second month at the Buyer’s Group and we’ve added another top supplier to the product portfolio. REC modules are now available at an amazing pre-negotiated rate for buyer’s group members. Both Alpha and N-Peak products are on the list. You can get some price discovery for REC or other products on our members page. You can also reach out to Libby Koenig from our team at libby@solarwakeup.com
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 26th, 2020
Tiny Windows. This was the first Presidential debate that had a planned segment on climate change and it did not disappoint. Trump continued to look at climate change as a building code issue, which provides the segue to say that building codes are one of the most powerful, yet under appreciated policies affecting climate change and solar. On the other hand, Biden talked about methane, batteries and transition in the most progressive way we’ve seen out of a candidate. You can read the entire debate transcript here.
Batteries In The Basement. In several interviews, town halls and debates, Biden has brought up the need for both a smart grid and solar plus storage. He’s been talking like many of us when we explain the needs for our market to a family member. The baseline for all of the policies I would expect in a Biden administration is the goal of 100% net zero by 2035 (though 2025 would be fine) in electricity generation. How to achieve this 15 year transition will be the makeup of many trade groups’ 100 day policy papers you will see the day after the election.
Solar Is (Isn’t) A Pipe Dream. “Solar. I love solar, but solar doesn't quite have it yet…So, it's all a pipe dream,” Those are the words at the debate by Trump before also saying that solar can’t power America’s factories. Tell that to the developers, investors, manufacturers, EPCs, lawyers and union workers that have installed solar that sit on rooftops or solar farms across the Country. This is not due to a lack of effort by SEIA, solar companies and republican senators that have met with Trump and his senior advisors over the past 4 years to educate the administration about solar. So here we are after 4 years, solar isn’t ready for prime-time coming from the leader of the free world. So here’s a headline from last week, after IEA said solar is the cheapest source of electricity in the world.
The Oil And Gas Isn’t (Is) A Pipe Dream. The hottest part of the debate was when Biden said, slipped, or was misunderstood (depending on how you stand on the politics) that he was looking to end oil and transition them to renewable energy. Couple of notes on this topic. 1. Oil and renewable energy don’t directly intersect. Oil is losing market share to electricity, competing with utilities but not any particular type of generation. 2. Biden’s campaign was saying that he meant he wanted to end oil’s federal subsidies to which I say, don’t get rid of them but add solar to them instead. Particularly carrybacks for tax credits and ability to offset active income tax liabilities. 3. This is what the Biden administration really should be saying, Biden didn’t say or propose anything that the CEO of BP and other oil majors aren’t already saying themselves. They are already transitioning the business because the market has spoken, something republicans should understand.
Must Listen Conversation. Biden talked with hosts of Pod Save America after the debate in this interview. The interview leads with climate change and goes from 4:17 to 13:15. The 11:30 mark talks about smart grids and solar plus storage gets the nod at 11:50.
The 2021 Foundation. 2021 is the year that will highlight either an amazing decade for solar that passed or set the foundation for a decade of domination. Regardless it will break records and SolarWakeup has always had one of the most aggressive forecasts that also had the benefit of being the most accurate. 2021 will bring a residential market of over 3.6GW, over 20% growth over 2020. A lot of that backlog is already in the books and consumers’ appetite for solar power is bigger than ever before. A Biden victory will set the foundation for many more years at this scale and higher but will also take away the ITC cliff driving more capacity at the end of the year. If Trump wins again, it will depend on how the House and Senate play out whether there is an ITC deal but we can expect more tariffs and less focus on renewable energy which makes solar policy advocates focus on States instead.
The Buyer’s Group Grows. We’re into our second month at the Buyer’s Group and we’ve added another top supplier to the product portfolio. REC modules are now available at an amazing pre-negotiated rate for buyer’s group members. Both Alpha and N-Peak products are on the list. You can get some price discovery for REC or other products on our members page.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 23rd, 2020
On Monday. I’ll have some commentary about the debate on Monday. Politico’s Michael Grunwald chimes in with a view of Biden’s choices if he wins. You’ll also get my 2021 expectations for the market, SolarWakeup has been pretty spot on with 2019 and 2020 forecasts. We’ll include a great new product addition to the SolarWakeup Buyer’s Group showing the momentum that comes from helping installers increase margin.
Get That Money. What’s better than a solar job? A solar job that pays more than other job.
Supply Chains Will Adjust. Look for solar to quick pivot and make changes to ensure supply chain isn’t entangled with human rights concerns.
Tesla’s Energy Side. “We continue to believe that the energy business will ultimately be as large as our vehicle business.“ The company installed 57MW of solar and says that they did a solar roof install in 1.5 days. Here’s the deck, it’s light on things that aren’t cars or batteries.
Colorado Blaze. Thinking about our many friends in Colorado. This picture showed the gravity of the situation unfolding.
Covering The ITC by M Bar C. In the last 15 years, the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has allowed organizations to benefit from substantial cost savings to solar installations. This sustainability-driven program has helped revolutionize the renewable energy industry. Regardless, in 2021 ITC benefits will shift; here is what you need to know from my friends at M Bar C Construction and how we can help you and your organization take maximum advantage of these savings while they last.
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Yann
This is your SolarWakeup for October 22nd, 2020
Less Is More. Australia is sending the solar postcard from the future. With over 20% of homes already with solar, storage going through the roof, the market is putting solar on homes at $1/watt with instant permitting and innovative inspection processes. You can order products directly from your software tool and get to work the day after signing the contract with e-signatures. With all of that rooftop solar, look at the demand data that shows an overall reduction.
Oceans Rise, Empires Fall. Some solar EPC is going to be hiring hundreds of workers to install a 400MW solar farm in Indiana, part of NIPSCO’s 900MW solar and storage plan. Indiana is a bellwether for me, and as I talked about with TJ Kanczuzweki, the midwest solar industry is ready to go. So here’s some words of wisdom from Hamilton’s King George of what the fossil empire thought was going to happen, and here we are. “You'll be back soon you'll see, You'll remember you belong to me, You'll be back time will tell, You'll remember that I served you well. Oceans rise, Empires fall.”
The EV Hummer. General Motors is bringing back the off-road line as an electric vehicle. This version misses the consumer but it’s another step towards the EV in every driveway future that will drive more demand in solar.
Why The Down Day? You may have seen your solar portfolio was down a good amount yesterday and that’s because there is a new wrinkle in silicon supply chain. This is largely caused by Obama’s original trade war with China that moved a lot of the silicon manufacturing to the Xinjiang. It appears the labor pool in Xinjiang could include some Uyghur risk. With the House passing a bill requiring supply chains to be clean of this human rights issue, this is going to cause some shifts in solar supply. If you want to get more info on this, Roth Capital is hosting a call with lawyers, silicon suppliers and SEIA this morning. You can register for the Zoom call here.
Covering The ITC by M Bar C. In the last 15 years, the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) has allowed organizations to benefit from substantial cost savings to solar installations. This sustainability-driven program has helped revolutionize the renewable energy industry. Regardless, in 2021 ITC benefits will shift; here is what you need to know from my friends at M Bar C Construction and how we can help you and your organization take maximum advantage of these savings while they last.
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Have a great day!
Yann