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Yann
MIPs and TRQs. The administration is going to announce a long anticipated minimum import price under the 232 polysilicon case any moment now. Here’s what you need to know. This is meant to drive up the price of all modules imported in the US above the price that domestic producers want. With enough domestic production, you should be able to buy modules well below the MIP if the competition is thorough and there is no collusion on pricing. (Different topic). Here’s what comes next, you’re likely to see two things. A flurry of supply announcements between domestic factories and IPPs that are trying to lock in production, something that solar has actually done not enough of based on the earnings announcements this week. (You know your backlog but keep buying at the market to try and save a penny but then screw up your schedule). The bigger story that few people know is that there is likely to be a TRQ, tariff rate quota that allows some domestic producers to import parts of their module based on their investment levels (or as details emerge during the announcements). This will allow some factories to have access to imported cells while building out their domestic supply chain but not be subject to all the tariffs. This is where the rush will be to lock in the supply of pre and post factory startup. More to come, get your deals done today.
FCC Part 2. It seems likely that the FCC or other agency will expand the inverter rule to BESS and BESS software. Based on what I’m hearing from the market, EMS and possibly BMS will get placed into the FCC rule and do two things. First is limit the options you have for your software systems in BESS and second is stop your ability for firmware updates of your existing sites that are using non-domestic software or data flows. This will possibly be troublesome for any updates required by the ISO/RTOs that you are operating in.
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Yann
Minimum Import Price? The section 232 on poly looks to be coming soon, at least it seems so by some companies’ stock price pops. With a likely MIP (minimum import price) on modules, the question comes on how it will drive domestic factories and does it need a 45x extension bill in order to really drive that. At what MIP will the market slow in a way that is painful or can the off taker market manage it, those are the questions I am hearing right now.
Base Power. A residential storage company is raising $1billion at a whopping valuation of $13billion and you may not have heard of it. They don’t really sell anything to the solar market but they provide storage as a service to consumers, somewhere around 600MWh or more touting a daily build rate of 100 units. With this raise the company is also building their own 40kWh storage unit and owning the vertical supply chain. At $13b, Base is worth nearly 3x Enphase but that’s a bit apples and oranges given the infrastructure play that Base is but begs to question whether Enphase should raise a couple billion dollars and own the assets too. Of course, with 8.6GW of solar and 4.3GWh of storage, at a value of $2.3billion, Sunrun may feel some resentment.
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Yann
The LFP Scale Up. Samsung is building out their domestic LFP production and already highlights that demand will outpace their capacity which is a reasonable start to take. There is an overlap of the demand between the auto and energy sectors and finding the volumes that will drive pricing and cost structures. The trade cases will also come to the storage market, which will surely take some time to find a rationalization as well.
FCC Part 1 of Many. Hard to consider the FCC rule that defines everything. I’ve spoken to several executives that feel fine with what was issued from their side but when I speak to asset owners, they’re a bit more worried about replacements, firmware updates etc. My highlight is that this is likely to extend to storage and those software components in the EMS and BMS. Both of which would well to be expected to be included in the near future. On the market altering side, Some developers are wondering how the interconnection procedures will adapt to the rule and how it will be enforced at that level.
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Yann